What an ex-ICRAF DG does Rural Development or Research?

840 views
743 views

Published on

What an ex-ICRAF DG does Rural Development or Research?

Published in: Technology
0 Comments
1 Like
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

No Downloads
Views
Total views
840
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
55
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
2
Comments
0
Likes
1
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

What an ex-ICRAF DG does Rural Development or Research?

  1. 1. What an ex –ICRAF DG does—Rural Development or Research? Pedro A. Sanchez The Earth Institute at Columbia University 24 February 2012
  2. 2. Options Retire and go fishing Shift from CG-type research to development Shift to more strategic tropical soils research
  3. 3. SS Africa 1 16Latin America 3 48South & East Asia 3 48China 5 80N. America, 10 160
  4. 4. 21st Century African Green Revolution
  5. 5. Components Nutrition Environment MarketsAgriculture Policies Politics Soils Water Seeds
  6. 6. AfGR 1.0 Real Impact since 2005 15-20 million rural Africans are out of hunger who werent in 2005 (yields from 1 to 2-3 tons/ha) But, it’s <10% of currently rural hungry, 240 m in Africa Tipping point (25%?) not reached Input subsidies work and are the main tool, in conjunction with bank credit systems. Agrodealers , crop diversification, crop insurance Cellphone revolution Africa is really taking off
  7. 7. Malawi—The First African Green Revolution Smart subsidies
  8. 8. Harvest Million Food Yield Officially Year tons requireme (tons/ha) nt 2005 1.3 - 43% 0.8 drought 2006 2.4 + 18% 1.5 good 2007 3.3 + 57% 2.7 good 2008 2.8 +32% 1.6 good 2009 3.6 +58% 2.2 good 2010 2.9 +33% 1.9 drought 2011 3.3 +56% 2.2 drought Malawi: Low Prices 2007:Denning et al, 2009 Plos Biology, Subsidy cost: $70 millionMinistry of Agriculture data for 2008-2011 Benefit: $688 million
  9. 9. Community leads / Science-based
  10. 10. 5 tons/ha, Sauri, Kenya 2005
  11. 11. Pampaida, Nigeria
  12. 12. Harvest Maize Upland Soybeans Cowpea Year (tons/ha) rice (tons/ha) (tons/ha) (tons/ha) 2005* 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.5 2006 3.5 - - - 2007 3.7 2.0 1.6 1.0 2008 3.7 2.1 1.6 1.0 2009 4.1 2.0 1.6 1.1 2010 4.3 2.4 1.6 1.1Pampaida, Kaduna State, NigeriaSource: MVP Office, Zaria
  13. 13. The real yield gap Sauri10 8 6 4 2 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 Cropping season
  14. 14. Working Schools: Pampaida2006 2007
  15. 15. Road2006 2007
  16. 16. Businesswoman-Sauri
  17. 17. From Agrovets to Agrodealers
  18. 18. Stunting of Children under 2 YearsStunting Baselin Year 3Prevalence: e n=720 n=376Pampaida, Nigeria 78% 42%Tiby, Mali 63% 38%Koraro, Ethiopia 62% 36%Sauri, Kenya 62% 38%Mwandama, Malawi 55% 37%Ruhiira, Uganda 49% 38%Mbola, Tanzania 42% 15%Potou, Senegal 30% 31%Bonsaaso, Ghana 25% 20%Overall 52% 32% R. Remans et al. American Journal of Clinical Nutrition 2011)
  19. 19. African Green Revolution 2.0 Scaling–up. African governments to lead Bring in organic inputs Banks to lend to the rural poor that lack collateral Work closely together with the private sector Close the real yield gap; increase efficiency 21st Century extension Reduce pre and post harvest losses
  20. 20. Increase efficiency SSA going from 1 to 3 tons/ha in 10 years Increase penetration of high yielding seeds to 70%. Support seed companies Incorporate organic inputs (esp. agroforestry) in fertilizer-based smallholder farming systems Increase nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) from 10-15 kg maize/kg fertilizer N to 30 Increase rainfed water use efficiency (WUE) from 2 to 10kg/mm ET Increase irrigation use efficiency from 48 to 75+% of water applied to penetrate the soil Targeting recommendations
  21. 21. Financing N-fixing Inputs. How? Credits Subsidies Rewards
  22. 22. Increased yields = Increased water use efficiency1 ton/ha 3 tons/ha 87% E
  23. 23. Extension
  24. 24. Learn from the top farmers
  25. 25. Targeting Recommendations: Digital Soil Map 100 by 100 m 0 - 5 cm 5 – 15 cm 15 – 30 cm 30 – 60 cm 60-100 cm 100-200 cm Effective depth Sanchez et al Science, 385: 680-681, 2009
  26. 26. Sentinel Site a spatially stratified, hierarchical, randomized sampling framework Sentinel Site 16 Clusters 10 Plots 4 Sub-plots Randomization to minimize local biases that might arise from convenience sampling
  27. 27. Legacy Data: Soil Management Experiments C Sequestration Agroforestry Phosphorus Methane
  28. 28. Lab in a box SMSNational Digital Soils Central Mobile lab
  29. 29. Training a new generation of African soil scientists
  30. 30. Combine Appropriate Interventions, butfind out where specific interventions don’t work, or take too much time By all means combine mineral fertilizers with organic inputs Conservation agriculture (herbicides + power) Evergreen agriculture– apply genomic science? Biochar ? What is your yield target? What are your environmental targets?
  31. 31. The bottom line

×