Session 6.2 rubber monoculture or agroforestry
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Session 6.2 rubber monoculture or agroforestry

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Session 6.2 rubber monoculture or agroforestry Session 6.2 rubber monoculture or agroforestry Presentation Transcript

  • Rubber monoculture or rubber agroforestry: are there implementable policy-supports based on result from spatially explicit models? YI Zhuangfang 依庄防, World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF), China Center for Montain Ecosystem Studies Kunming Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences
  • Traditional & non-traditional rubber-growing regions Rubber agroforestry only exists in Thailand Indonesia (Old Rubber) etc. now, but it’s been gradually conversed into rubber monoculture or plantations of other cash crops. Li and Fox, 2012
  • Study Site Yunnan ,China Data from: World Agroforest center, China Program and KIB
  • Man-made plantations: rubber monoculture and rubber agroforestry Rubber agroforestry Rubber monoculture
  • Rubber Expansion 87,226 ha 153,613 ha 438,015 (23%) Data from: World Agroforest center, China Program and KIB Data from: Agro-forest center China
  • The trend of Rubber plantations 1200 1000 Inferior rubber plantations 800 600 Medium-favorable rubber plantations 400 200 0 3 Favorable rubber plantations 1400m***** Rubber plantations have already been expanded to 1600m
  • Questions 1. Which is more cost-efficient between rubber monoculture and rubber agroforestry? 2. Which has better ecological functions/values? 3. Is there a balance between economic return and ecological functions/values? And which is more implementable based on existing policy-support?
  • Question 1 1. Which is more cost-efficient between rubber monoculture and rubber agroforestry?
  • Methodology and Data 1. Compiling the cost and productivity observations from field surveys, interviews and literatures; Rubber productivity among different cropping systems 4000 Rubber in KG/ha 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 Rubber monoculture gets highest rubber productivity but also the highest overall cost 500 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 Jungle rubber rubber agroforestry(tea+fruit trees) rubber monoculture Data source: Feng (2007); Wuland and Joshi (2013); Wibawa, unpublished.
  • Methodology and Data 2. Simulating the land use scenarios based on land use map in 2010, including nonrubber scenarios:1) (Non-Rubber), 2)Conservation Oriented Scenario(COS), 3) land use map in 2010, 4) 2010 Agroforestry, 5)Business-as-usual Scenario (BAU), 6)BAU Agroforestry, 7)Economic Oriented Scenario (EOS), and8) EOS Agroforestry. Current situation Care about forests 2) 1) 3) The future 5) 4) Only rubber 6) 7) 8)
  • Answer to question 1 We calculated the economic returns for each land use scenario, and we found: plant more rubber (EOS, Economic Oriented Scenario) would have more economic return from rubber. However, we are going to lose all ecosystem services in the future, e.g. clean water, biodiversity etc. Rubber economic returns in Billion USD 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
  • Question 2 2. Which has better ecological functions/values?
  • Existing carbon markets Climate change, 1997 Kyoto Protocol, 2007 Bali Action.  US  Europe  Australia  China: to reduce 40-45% of carbon emission a) Beijing Environmental Exchange b) China Environment & Energy Network in Shanghai c) Tianjin Climate Exchange d) A new domestic market will be established in Guangdong province
  • Carbon storage of different types of land use and land cover Landuse and Carbon Landuse and Carbon cover types Storage(t/ha) cover types Storage (t/ha) Seasonal rainforest 122 Paddy field 5 Mantane rainforest 116 Tea plantations 14 Evergreen broad-leaf 105 Favorable RP 35 Pinus forest 32 Unfavorable RP 15 Alnus forest 60 Residential area 0 Mossy evergreen broad 80 Water body 0 forest -leaf forest Shrub and grass land 15 Li et al 2008; Xi 2009;Song and Zhang 2010; Zhang et al. 2011
  • Answer to question 2 Plant less rubber, we will gain more carbon storage Carbon storage in Million Ton 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Non-rubber COS 2010 Land use Map 2010 Agroforestry BAU BAU Agroforestry EOS EOS Agroforestry
  • Question 3 3. Is there a balance between economic return and ecological functions/values? And which is more implementable based on existing policy-support?
  • Rubber monoculture or rubber agroforestry? Rubber and Carbon economic return in Billion USD return in Billion USD Rubber and Carbon economic return in Billion USD Rubber and Carbon economic return in Billion USD Economically, only carbon market would bring more economic returns to compete with rubber profit. So we combine both rubber profit with carbon value for each land use scenario. We found 1. When the carbon Carbon price is 5$/ ton 20$/ ton market brings 10 16 14 8 higher carbon 12 6 10 4 8 market, people 2 6 0 4 would benefit 2 0 more from maintaining and protecting forest. 2. The easiest way 30$/ ton 10$/ ton 25 for 10 20 8 Xishuangbanna to 6 15 go in the future 4 10 2 would be 2010 5 0 0 agroforestry
  • Rubber and Carbon economic return in Billion USD Answer to question 3 16 2nd 14 12 10 1st 8 6 4 2 0 Non-rubber COS 2010 Land 2010 use Map Agroforestry BAU BAU Agroforestry EOS EOS Agroforestry Rubber Agroforestry would bring more benefits overall, including rubber and carbon economic returns, than rubber monoculture from rubber. The low-hanging-fruit for Xishuangbanna would be “go for rubber agroforestry first (2010 Agroforestry scenario)” and then “switch to conservation oriented scenario gradually when the carbon market gets better in the future”
  • Conclusion and discussion  Rubber agroforestry would potentially benefit better than rubber monoculture;  However, the benefits only come from: - better clone of crops combination in the agroforestry, e.g. plant new rubber clone 77-4, 77-2 instead of old clone GT1; and to select high market value indigenous timber and fruit species; - Future environmental market, especially, carbon market would play a big role for supporting agroforestry; - Higher education and training for farmers will be needed to better manage their agroforestry and to improve household socioeconomic and ecological benefits.
  • If you have further questions please contact: Zhuangfang Yi Yi.zhuangfang@gmail.com yizhuangfang@mail.kib.ac.cn Facebook: Zhuangfang Nana Yi Personal website: https://sites.google.com/site/zhuangfangnanayi T HANK YOU FOR YOUR TIME ! Wish you all a fun staying in Delhi!