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Modelling the coupling between carbon turnover and climate variability of terrestrial ecosystems Per-Erik Jansson Departme...
Outline of presentation <ul><li>Some general features of the CoupModel representing coupled ecosystem processes </li></ul>...
A process oriented Ecosystem model  - CoupModel  <ul><li>Coupled heat and mass transfer model for soil-plant-atmosphere sy...
Model Availability and Features http://www.lwr.kth.se/Vara%20Datorprogram/CoupModel/index.htm Includes documentation and t...
Water and Heat Processes
Carbon and Nitrogen Processes
Process oriented modelling platform with many components
Coupling between different submodels
Transpiration and Photosynthesis <ul><li>Transpiration is a function of net radiation and resistances in plant and atmosph...
Single/Multiple Big Leaf Model
Emission of NO and N20
Methane emission model
Modelling of carbon dynamic of Swedish forest soils <ul><li>Using models for interpretation of data and for upscaling </li...
<ul><li>We have simple data from large regions and detailed data from some few sites </li></ul><ul><li>The few sites (Lust...
<ul><li>(1) estimation of parameters from regional data – 100 years. </li></ul><ul><li>(2) site specific data were used to...
<ul><li>Objective:  Estimate trends in soil C storage </li></ul><ul><li>Approach:  Regional scale with representative site...
Regional input data N
Tree Biomass simulation in for four regions
N Decomp. rate coeff. (kh) Organic N uptake Versus min N Uptake Soil C change (g C m -2  yr -1 ) <ul><li>Current soil C po...
Tree and Field layer dynamics important for modelling long term dynamics South North
Flakaliden- calibration <ul><li>Objective :  Quantify major fluxes of C, heat and water including uncertainty estimates </...
Model performance (mean of accepted runs)
Uncertainty estimates 644 ±74 363 ±43 207 ±31 -69 ±18 570 ±55 138 ±37
Climate change scenarios <ul><li>Objective:  Effects on C-budget and on governing and limiting factors due to climate chan...
Different response on key components of ecosystem environment
Response for GPP (North and South)
Seasonal Dynamics Differs (north – south)
<ul><ul><li>NEP increased in all regions along the Swedish transect. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Major part of the increase...
Implications for future  <ul><li>Use best uncertainty methods to allow for estimations probabilistic distributions of para...
Coupled models are necessary to understand long term behaviour of ecosystem <ul><li>Soil climate is strongly coupled with ...
<ul><li>Upscaling and downscaling is now possible with flexibility and transparency but... </li></ul><ul><li>Uncertainties...
Last comment <ul><li>An adviser who believes too much in the figures from a mathematical model will be equally poor as the...
Thanks for Thanks for your attention
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Modelling the coupling between carbon turnover and climate variability of terrestrial ecosystems.

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Seminar presentation at ICRAF, Nairobi (Kenya), 1st December 2010

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Transcript of "Modelling the coupling between carbon turnover and climate variability of terrestrial ecosystems. "

  1. 1. Modelling the coupling between carbon turnover and climate variability of terrestrial ecosystems Per-Erik Jansson Department of Land and Water Resources Engineering Royal Institute of Technology KTH, Stockholm Seminar at ICRAF, Nairobi, 1 December 2010
  2. 2. Outline of presentation <ul><li>Some general features of the CoupModel representing coupled ecosystem processes </li></ul><ul><li>Examples of how model has been used to describe specific sites with detailed measurements, regional scale with only standared data and climate scenarious </li></ul><ul><li>Some implications for future studies </li></ul>
  3. 3. A process oriented Ecosystem model - CoupModel <ul><li>Coupled heat and mass transfer model for soil-plant-atmosphere systems </li></ul>
  4. 4. Model Availability and Features http://www.lwr.kth.se/Vara%20Datorprogram/CoupModel/index.htm Includes documentation and tutorials
  5. 5. Water and Heat Processes
  6. 6. Carbon and Nitrogen Processes
  7. 7. Process oriented modelling platform with many components
  8. 8. Coupling between different submodels
  9. 9. Transpiration and Photosynthesis <ul><li>Transpiration is a function of net radiation and resistances in plant and atmosphere </li></ul><ul><li>Photosynthesis is a function of light and the stomata resistance </li></ul>LAI
  10. 10. Single/Multiple Big Leaf Model
  11. 11. Emission of NO and N20
  12. 12. Methane emission model
  13. 13. Modelling of carbon dynamic of Swedish forest soils <ul><li>Using models for interpretation of data and for upscaling </li></ul><ul><li>Development of procedures for calibration and upscaling using Bayesian calibration methods </li></ul><ul><li>Producing results for various scales </li></ul>
  14. 14. <ul><li>We have simple data from large regions and detailed data from some few sites </li></ul><ul><li>The few sites (Lustra CFS) and regional Forest inventory have been used together </li></ul><ul><li>The model has been used as a tool to understand and to make upscaling and downscaling </li></ul>To start... x 1 yr
  15. 15. <ul><li>(1) estimation of parameters from regional data – 100 years. </li></ul><ul><li>(2) site specific data were used to calibrate the model for Flakaliden (dry mesic) and Asa (wet). </li></ul><ul><li>(3) climate change scenarios (A2, B2) were used together with parameters from the regional site (1) on a 100 year perspective for dry-mesic sites. </li></ul>3 steps ... 1 yr
  16. 16. <ul><li>Objective: Estimate trends in soil C storage </li></ul><ul><li>Approach: Regional scale with representative sites </li></ul><ul><li>Data: Standing tree biomass and soil C and N pools </li></ul>Regional approach N
  17. 17. Regional input data N
  18. 18. Tree Biomass simulation in for four regions
  19. 19. N Decomp. rate coeff. (kh) Organic N uptake Versus min N Uptake Soil C change (g C m -2 yr -1 ) <ul><li>Current soil C pools in the south increases whereas central and northern soils are close to steady state </li></ul><ul><li>Need for another source of N in addition to mineralised N </li></ul><ul><li>Different decomposition rate coeff. along Swedish transect </li></ul>
  20. 20. Tree and Field layer dynamics important for modelling long term dynamics South North
  21. 21. Flakaliden- calibration <ul><li>Objective : Quantify major fluxes of C, heat and water including uncertainty estimates </li></ul><ul><li>Approach: Bayesian uncertainty theory </li></ul><ul><li>Data: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Standing tree biomass and soil C and N pools </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Internal fluxes i.e. litterfall, root litter production and DOC </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Eddyflux measurements of CO 2 , heat and water </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Soil physical properties </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Soil temperature </li></ul></ul>N
  22. 22. Model performance (mean of accepted runs)
  23. 23. Uncertainty estimates 644 ±74 363 ±43 207 ±31 -69 ±18 570 ±55 138 ±37
  24. 24. Climate change scenarios <ul><li>Objective: Effects on C-budget and on governing and limiting factors due to climate change </li></ul><ul><li>Approach: Climate change of regional approach </li></ul><ul><li>Data: IPCC climate change scenarios Hadley A2 and B2 </li></ul>N
  25. 25. Different response on key components of ecosystem environment
  26. 26. Response for GPP (North and South)
  27. 27. Seasonal Dynamics Differs (north – south)
  28. 28. <ul><ul><li>NEP increased in all regions along the Swedish transect. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Major part of the increase related to tree growth. </li></ul></ul>Climate change effect on tree growth and soil C change
  29. 29. Implications for future <ul><li>Use best uncertainty methods to allow for estimations probabilistic distributions of parameters for specific field investigations </li></ul><ul><li>Make simulation experiments to understand uncertainties of coupled models rather than single submodels </li></ul>
  30. 30. Coupled models are necessary to understand long term behaviour of ecosystem <ul><li>Soil climate is strongly coupled with vegetation and atmopheric climate </li></ul><ul><li>Soil physical conditions are a dynamic forcing for nitrogen and cabon turnover </li></ul><ul><li>Dynamic description of plant cover need to include both field and canopy layers for Swedish forest </li></ul><ul><li>Carbon, Nitrogen, Water and Heat have to be considered together </li></ul>
  31. 31. <ul><li>Upscaling and downscaling is now possible with flexibility and transparency but... </li></ul><ul><li>Uncertainties are still very difficult to express for the regional scale </li></ul><ul><li>Site specific data has generated new knowledge but no easy answers for upscaling… </li></ul>Current Climate and Management Future Climate and Management x x x Site Region 100 yr 1 yr
  32. 32. Last comment <ul><li>An adviser who believes too much in the figures from a mathematical model will be equally poor as the one who fully trusts results from field investigations. </li></ul>
  33. 33. Thanks for Thanks for your attention
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