Woodfuel & charcoal Review-Miyuki Iiyama-ICRAF-2013

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On 11 September, Miyuki Iiyama, a socio-economist with the World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF), and colleagues from CIFOR, Oxford University and INBAR, presented the preliminary findings of a review …

On 11 September, Miyuki Iiyama, a socio-economist with the World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF), and colleagues from CIFOR, Oxford University and INBAR, presented the preliminary findings of a review looking at demand, supply and policies around woodfuel and charcoal in sub-Saharan Africa. The talk gave insights into charcoal production and trade in SSA, and the numerous gaps in the knowledge and data on, particularly, charcoal.

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  • 1. What happened to the charcoal crisis? systematic reviews as a contribution to evidence-based policy on wood-based fuel in Africa by Miyuki Iiyama, Gillian Petrokofsky, Peter Kanowski and Yannick Kuehl! September 11, 2013
  • 2. Charcoal(Crisis?(( Nyama(Choma(Crisis?!( (Kenyan’s(favorite(barbecue)(
  • 3. Outline(of(the(seminar( Se=ng(the(Scene(((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((Miyuki(Iiyama/ICRAF! ! CRP6(woodfuel(review(iniJaJve((((Yannick(Kuehl/INBAR( (((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((Meine(van(Noordwijk/ICRAF( ( SystemaJc(research(methods((((((((((Gillian(Petrokofsky/Univ(of(Oxford((((((( (((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((Peter(Kanowski/CIFOR( (((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((Yannick! ! Preliminary(findings(((((((((((((((((((((((((((Miyuki(+( ((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((Ramni(Jamnadass/ICRAFTSD3( ((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((Henry(Neufeldt/ICRAFTSD6( ((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((Phil(Dobie/ICRAF(((((((((( ((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((Mary(Njenga/ICRAFTEA–(Unv((Nairobi(( ((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((Geoffrey(Ndegwa/ICRAFTEAT(Univ((Passau(( ((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((Jeremias(Mowo/ICRAFTEA( ( Discussion(points((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((Gillian((
  • 4. ©!Dessin!Andre!Houot.!Edi1on!Wandering! Why(woodfuel?( •  The!discovery!of!how!to!make!fire!with!woodfuel=!humanity's(most( important(advances.!Wood!has!been!used!as!fuel!for!millennia,!mee1ng! humanity’s!basic!needs!for!cooking,!boiling!water,!ligh1ng!and!hea1ng.! •  For!most!of!Europe,!managed!woodlands!con1nued!to!supply!their!markets! right!up!to!the!end!of!World!War!II.!! •  Today,!woodfuels!are!major!sources!of!energy!in!the!developing!countries! •  Yet!considered!backward,!against!“modern”!energy–!kerosene,!gas,!electricity!! Se=ng(the(Scene( blogs.oscLib.com!L!!
  • 5. Why(woodfuel(in(SSA?( •  Dominant!importance!in!energy!balance! •  Linked!to!poverty,!health!risks!&!environmental!degrada1on!! Se=ng(the(Scene( WHO!(2006)!Fuels&for&Life:&Household&Energy&and&Health.!! Chidumayo!&!Gumbo!(2013)!The&environmental&impacts&of&charcoal& produc;on&in&tropical&ecosystems&of&the&world:&A&synthesis.!ESD! 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% World (12,149,845 Mtoe) Asia (3,731,223 Mtoe) Latin America (540,017 Mtoe) Africa (673,500 Mtoe) sub-Saharan Africa - South Africa (290,758 Mtoe) Contribution of biofuels and wastes* to total primary energy supply (IEA) biofuels and waste geothermal, solar etc, hydro nuclear natural gas oil products crude oil coal and peat DeforestaJon(cased(by(charcoal( producJon((black(bars)(and(other( factors((plain(bars)(in(the(countries( with(the(highest(rates(of( deforestaJon( GDP(per(capita( %(of(primary(bioenergy(in(total( energy(por_olio( •(SubTSaharan(Africa( •(Asia( •(LaJn(America(( •(North(Africa( •(woodfuels( •(hydro( •(nuclear( •(natural(gas( •(oil(products( •(crude(oil( •(coal(&(peat(
  • 6. The image cannot be displayed. Your computer may not have enough memory to open the image, or the image may have been corrupted. Restart your computer, and then open the file again. If the red x still appears, you may have to delete the image and then insert it again. Why(charcoal(in(SSA?( •  ShiZ!from!firewood!to!charcoal!with!income!growth!&!urbaniza1on!! !!!!!!!!!!!–health!benefits! Se=ng(the(Scene( Bailis!et!al.!(2005)!Mortality&and&Greenhouse&Gas& Impacts&of&Biomass&and&Petroleum&Energy&Futures&in&Africa.!Science! BAU(—( C(charcoal)(―( RC(rapid(charcoal)((TTTT( F((fossil)(―(;(RF((rapid(F)(TTT(( No.(of(paJents(&(death( from(respiratory(diseases( SSA(populaJon(((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((BAU(((((((((((((( C(charcoal)((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((RC(rapid(C)( F((fossil)(((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((RF(rapid(F)(( urban( rural( firewood( charcoal( kerosene( gas( Millions(of(people(( firewood( charcoal( gas( kerosene( firewood(
  • 7. Why(charcoal(in(SSA?( •  ShiZ!from!firewood!to!charcoal!with!income!growth!&!urbaniza1on!! !!!!!!!–health!benefits!L!but!poten1ally!significant!land!use!impact! !!!!!!!L!a!major!driver!of!forest!degrada1on,!while!oZen!byLproducts!of!deforesta1on!! Se=ng(the(Scene( Firewood(for(domesJc(use(mostly(depend(on( dead(wood(or(branches(on/off(farm(( Charcoal(involves(selecJve(felling(of( live(indigenous(hardTwood(species( Bofa,!Ethiopia! Kerio!Valley,!Kenya! Sondu!Miriu,!Kenya! Kasigau,!Kenya! The image cannot be displayed. Your computer may not have enough memory to open the image, or the image may have been corrupted. Restart your computer, and then open the file again. If the red x still appears, you may have to delete the image and then insert it again.
  • 8. Why(charcoal(in(SSA?( •  Significant!economic!importance!! !!!!!!L!US$8b!revenue!+7m!employment!in!2007;!es1mated!US$12b+12m!by!2030! •  complex!and!mul1Llayered!“command!and!control”Ltype!regulatory!contexts,! which!result!in!an!unclear!framework!for!stakeholders!opera1ng!in!the!sector!! Se=ng(the(Scene( Figure 17: Marketing channels for charcoal in Kenya Production Site (wood and Charcoal) Middlemen Households Road Side Wholesalers Retailers KFS Police Local Authorities www.businessdailyafrica.com!! erinmurraytravels.blogspot.com! KFS!(2013)! www.businessdailyafrica.com!! 0T3%( ~16%( 20~22%( ~3%( ~20%( ~2%( 20T30%( Nairobi,!Kenya! Yaia,!Kenya! Mutomo,!Kenya! Kerio,!Kenya! G!Ndegwa! Somalia( Export(to(Gulf( www.trust.org!!
  • 9. Paradox(for(CRP6( Firewood/charcoal(as(major(use(of(trees(on(farm/landscape;(! Low(incenJves/moJvaJon(of(farmers(to(plant(woodfuels;(( •  Singular!focused!projects!on!promo1ng!woodfuel!planta1on!found!nonL effec1ve!(Dewees!1989)! ! Charcoal(as(a(major(driver(of(degradaJon(in(African(drylands(( ! Most(important(uJlity(derived(from(tree(species(on(farm( charcoal( firewood( Se=ng(the(Scene( Preliminary!Results!from! Ethiopian!Baseline!Data:!! ACIAR!funded!“Trees!for!Food! Security!Project”!! SubThumid(zone( SemiTarid(zone(
  • 10. AssumpJons,(quesJons(&(aims( AssumpJons:(the(poliJcal(will(for(sustainable(charcoal(has(been(lacking(and(the( past(wellTintended(projects(on(supply/demand(management(failed,(due(to( (1)  the!widely!predicted!woodfuel!crisis!for!Africa,!with!rising!prices!for!urban! consumers,!has!not!taken!place!at!the!scale!predicted;!! (2)  Past!projects!may!have!underes1mated!the!complexity!of!supplyLdemand! interac1ons!involved;!! (3)  there!is!lack!of!reliable!data!to!assess!the!sustainability!of!demandLsupply( ( QuesJons:( 1.  What!happened!to!charcoal!crisis?!!! 2.  SupplyLdemand!interac1ons?!! 3.  Is!the!quality!data!available?!( ( Aims:(( With!the!lessons!learned!from!conflic;ng&evidences&and&unbiased&knowledge,!can! we!develop!a&systema;c&approach&to!promote!sustainable!charcoal,!and!influence! the!key!stakeholders!to!mainstream!it!into!the!na1onal,!regional,!global!policies???!!!! Se=ng(the(Scene(
  • 11. CRP6(Woodfuel(Review( Background:(two!separate!research!proposals!within!CRP6!revealed!the!need!to! streamline!and!combine!research!efforts:!both!proposals!were!based!on!similar! assump1ons!and!approaches!!!these!underlying!assump1ons!and!approaches! have!not!changed!for!a!long!1me!!!fact!finding!mission!to!determine!state!of!the! art!knowledge!and!to!iden1fy!relevant!research!ques1ons! ObjecJve(of(review(process:(to!develop!white/posi1ons!paper!on!wood! energy!which!defines!new!and!relevant!research!ques1ons!for!the!development!of! future!substan1al!research!projects!on!wood!energy! Structure:(( (Phase!I:!(systema1c)!review!of!iden1fied!topic!(carried!out!in!three! !teams!focusing!on:!demand,!supply!and!policy)!!(onTgoing( !Phase!II:!synthesis!of!reviews!in!white/posi1on!paper!to!define!state!of! !the!art!approaches!and!methods!of!wood!energy,!as!well!as!relevant! !research!ques1ons! !Phase!III:!development!of!longLterm!research!project!(based!on! ! !findings!from!phase!I!and!II)! ! ! CRP6(IniJaJve(
  • 12. CRP6(Woodfuel(Review( Team:(25+!researchers!from!ICRAF!and!CIFOR!and!external!partners!(INBAR,!SLU,! UAB,!James!Huion!Ins1tute)! MeeJngs:(first!workshop!in!Bonn!(June!2012),!a!followLup!in!Doha!(December! 2012)!and!workshop!in!Bogor!(7L8!March!2013)!!!phase!I!review!approach,!teams! and!focus!ques1ons!defined!+!framework!developed! Research(on(wood(energy:(crossLcutng!topic!!!links!to:!! •  energy!markets!,!efficiency!in!produc1on!and!consump1on! •  energy!ladder,!compe11on!with!other!biomass!uses,!alterna1ves!(e.g.!bamboo)! •  rural!and!urban!livelihoods,!food!security,!emissions!and!indoor!air!pollu1on! •  employment!and!business!aspects,!value!chains! •  climate!change! •  landscapes!and!ecosystems,!sustainability! •  interna1onal!(crossLborder)!trade!and!local!(informal)!economies!! •  wide!range!of!policy!issues! !(Wood(Energy(Review(Research(framework((developed(by(Meine( van(Noordwijk)( CRP6(IniJaJve(
  • 13. DomesJc(energy(use(by(urban( +(rural(households(Value!chain! Supply(of(wood(energy(from(forest(+( rural(+(periTurban(landscapes( OneLoff! harvest!of! natural!forest! Planta1ons,! agroforestry! Sustainably! used!natural! forest! FossilLfuel! based! alterna1ves! Clean!energy! alterna1ves! Supply(side!policies! of!resource!access! Transport!&!value! chain!policies! Demand!shi:! policies! XLcon1nental!! !!!!!!!!!trade! XLborder!trade! Charcoal!kilns! Transport! Energy(crisis:!! running!out!of! supply! Driver(of( deforestaJon! Health(issues(~( wood(energy(! CompeJng( claims(on(land( Net(GHG(emissions( (accounJng( systems)( Businesses(along( value(chain! A( B( C( C( Other!bioLenergy! alterna1ves!
  • 14. CRP6(Woodfuel(Review( Framework:!three!core!issues:!demand,!supply!and!policy!!!research!team!was! grouped!accordingly!!!clear!dis1nc1on!between!these!aspects!is!difficult!and! overlaps!exist!!!overlaps,!however,!ensure!an!inclusive!process!which!considers! as!many!aspects!as!possible!!! Approach:(each!of!the!3!teams:!up!to!5!specific!review!ques1ons!!!one!or!2! researchers!responsible!for!each!specific!ques1on!! Overarching(research(quesJon:(is!there!a!wood!energy!crisis?!!!addressed! by!synthesizing!and!analyzing!the!findings!of!the!reviews!of!the!three!research! teams!on!demand,!supply!and!policy! Methodology:(Where!applicable!and!possible:!systema1c!reviews!!!replicable,! transparent!and!evidence!based!results!with!minimized!biased!interpreta1ons!!!if! systema1c!reviews!are!not!applicable!(due!to!high!demand!for!1me!and!costs):! individual!evidenceLbased!approaches!which!borrow!from!or!are!based!on!aspects! of!systema1c!reviews!! ! ! ! CRP6(IniJaJve(
  • 15. Systema1c!review:!a!powerful!tool! for!integra1ng!science!with!policy! Gillian!Petrokofsky! University!of!Oxford! ! Senior!Associate,!CIFOR! ! 11/09/2013! ICRAF!Science!Week! 15! Methodology(
  • 16. Outline( •  Overview!of!the!evidenceLbased!forestry!programme!in!CIFOR!+! Partners! •  Outline!of!systema1c!reviews!within!the!context!of!evidenceLbased! forestry! •  Where!these!ideas!on!evidenceLbased!paradigms!and!systema1c! reviews!came!from!(medicine,!social!policy,!conserva1on,!etc.)! •  Brief!outline!of!the!process!of!doing!a!systema1c!review!itself,!the! 1me!it!takes!and!the!types!of!teams!one!assembles!for!that! •  Reflec1ons!on!how!the!EBF!ini1a1ve!is!going!–!lessons!learned!so! far,!etc.! •  Reflec1ons!on!how!one!might!approach!a!policy/prac1ce!decision! without!going!through!a!systema1c!review!–openLdiscussion!topic! 11/09/2013! ICRAF!Science!Week! 16! Methodology(
  • 17. 11/09/2013! ICRAF!Science!Week! 17! About(me(Methodology(
  • 18. Vision CIFOR vision: "  Forests on the agenda - Value of forests recognized "  Decisions that influence forests and people supported by solid science and principles of good governance "  Contributing to evidence-based policies for sustainable landscapes and green growth About(CIFOR(Methodology(
  • 19. The(knowledgeTuse(challenge( 11/09/2013! ICRAF!Science!Week! #! #! 19! Methodology(
  • 20. The(EBF(collaboraJon( CIFOR,(IUFRO,(CATIE,(CIRAD,( ICRAF,(University(of(Oxford( •  agreed!to!ini1ate!the!EBF! collabora1on! •  CIFOR!leads!ini1al!phase,! including!capacity!building! Progress( •  Scoping,!training,!recruitment! •  First!systemaJc(reviews( underway! •  Ac1ve!process!to!determine! policy(and(review(prioriJes( •  www.cifor.org/ebf( 1987!!Swedish!Council!on!Technology!Assessment!in! Health! medicine! 1988!!Centre!for!the!Study!of!Learning!performance! (Canada)! educa1on! 1993((Cochrane(CollaboraJon( medicine! 1993!!EPPI!Centre!(UK)! social!policy! 1994!!Centre!for!Review!&!Dissemina1on!(UK)! medicine! 1995!!Joanna!Briggs!Ins1tute!(Australia)! medicine! 1995!!Blueprints!for!Violence!Preven1on!(USA)! crime!&!jus1ce! 1999!!Center!for!Evalua1on!Research!&!Methodology! (USA)! crime!&!jus1ce! 2000((Campbell(CollaboraJon( Social!policies! 2003!!Centre!for!EvidenceLbased!Conserva1on! environment! 2007((CollaboraJon(for(Environemntal(Evidence( environment! 2009!!3iE! interna1onal! development! 2013((EBF(T(CIFOR(&(Partners( forestry! The(collaboraJon(draws(from( examples(in(other(sectors( Systema1c!reviews:!“gold(standard”!! in!these!collabora1ons!11/09/2013! ICRAF!Science!Week! 20! Methodology(
  • 21. Science(does(not(provide(the(soluJons( …but without good science, good solutions unlikely to be found… Best( science( Society’s(( needs(&( preferences( Expert(( opinion( EBF( Beware(of(( experts’(bias!( 11/09/2013! ICRAF!Science!Week! 21! Methodology(
  • 22. Total(body(of(research( ( ( Research((used.( ! Evidence(Based( (Forestry( ! Current((‘haphazard’( situaJon( Total(body(of(research( Research(used( No(clear(methods(for(accessing(or( analysing(research(used(for( decisionTmaking(.(Results(not( acJvely(disseminated.( Repeatable(methods(for(accessing( and(analysing(research(used(for( decisionTmaking.((Results( disseminated(acJvely.( ( ( CollaboraJon/ParJcipaJon( in:( ( #  SystemaJc(reviews( #  Defining(priority(quesJons( ( ( Policy(focus(and(evidence:( science(relevance( ! ! 11/09/2013! ICRAF!Science!Week! 22! From!Petrokofsky!!2011! Methodology(
  • 23. 1. Question framing •  Policy-relevance •  Involves stakeholders •  Define what is to be examined and how 2. Rigorous review methodology •  Transparent •  Repeatable 3. Engage wider community with findings: •  policy makers •  academics •  stakeholders 3.!! AcJve! dissemina1on! of!results! 2.! SystemaJc! evalua1on! of!evidence! Framework(for(incorporaJng(evidence( 11/09/2013! 23! 1.! !PolicyT relevant! ques1on! Commitment(to( update( From!Petrokofsky!et!al.,!2010! ICRAF!Science!Week! Methodology(
  • 24. Steps(of(a(systemaJc(review! 24! 1(!Formulate! the!problem! and!register! 1tle! 2(((Write!the! protocol,!submit! for!peerLreview,! publish! 3!!!Locate!and! select!studies! 4!!Appraise! studies!for!! risk!of!bias! 5!!!Collect!and! extract!data! 6!!!Analyse!data! and!present!the! results! 7!!!Interpret!the! results! 8!!!Complete!the! review,!submit! for!peerLreview!&! publish! 9!!!Update!the! review! 11/09/2013! ICRAF!Science!Week! Methodology(
  • 25. Typical(systemaJc(review(group( •  6L8!(4!minimum)! •  Lead!reviewer!(one!throughout,!or!consider!leads! at!different!stages)! •  Con1nuous!admin!support! •  Library/informa1on!resource!specialist! •  Sta1s1cian!(if!metaLanalysis/sta1s1cal!analysis!is! planned)! •  Subject!exper1se!(consider!language! implica1ons)! 11/09/2013! ICRAF!Science!Week! 25! Methodology(
  • 26. First(tranche(of(systemaJc(reviews( Topic( Review(team( Impacts(of(biofuel(crops(on(biodiversity( CIFOR( ETH(Zurich( CIRAD( Concepts(of(science(quality(&(research( evaluaJon( Royal(Roads(University(Canada( Role(of(land(use(change(dynamics(in(miombo( woodlands( Copperbelt(University(Zambia( Univ(Pretoria( CIFOR! ( Biodiversity(benefits(of(“alternaJve( livelihoods”(( CIFOR( IIED( Zoological(Society(of(London( Property(rights(and(the(environment( CIFOR( Univ(Michigan( Univ(Oxford( Ecosystems(sustaining(agriculture( CIFOR( Univ(Wageningen( Univ(Southampton( 11/09/2013! ICRAF!Science!Week! 26! Methodology(
  • 27. Time(constraints(T(opJons( •  6L9!months!(depending!on!literature)! •  Consider!evidence!mapping! – Robust! – ProtocolLdriven! – No!data!extrac1on!&!synthesis! 11/09/2013! ICRAF!Science!Week! 27! Methodology(
  • 28. Some!indica1ve!publishing!data!with!a! story?! •  All!literature!on!‘energy’! •  Percentage!of!this! literature!rela1ng!to! Africa!
  • 29. More!EBF!at!ICRAF!Science!Week! All(welcome!( ! ! Thank(you(for(listening( 11/09/2013! ICRAF!Science!Week! 29! Methodology(
  • 30. Preliminary(Findings(( The(development(of(explicit(review(quesJons(–(sJll(being(refined( ! 1.  Charcoal!CrisisL!!Higher!charcoal!demand!translated!into!higher! charcoal!prices?! 2.  Complexity!of!interac1ons!L!Supply!is!stable/!responsive/! sustainable!to!higher!charcoal!demand?!! 3.  Is!data!available!to!assess!the!sustainability!of!the!sector?!! A(preliminary(evaluaJon(of(the(exisJng(evidence(base(that(could( provide(scienJfic(underpinning(for(these(quesJons( Preliminary(Findings(
  • 31. Past(projects’(nonTsystemaJc(approach( Dewees’!“counterLargument”!against!woodfuel!crisis!debates!taken!forward,!in!turn,!! very!few!projects/studies!had!systema1c!approaches,!resul1ng!in!lack!of!impacts!! Supply(Management( Projects( ex.!reforesta1on! focusing!only!on! woodfuel!provision,!! Improved!kilns,!! charcoal!ban,! regula1ons! Demand( Management( Projects( ex.!promo1ng! improved!cook! stoves,!!modern! energy! Ethiopia@Project!Gaia! G!Ndegwa! priority(species(by(men(( perceived(low( opportunity(costs,( negaJve(tree(tenure(for( women( Lack(of(E(Scarcity( percepJons(on(coTbenefits(( unicefinnova1on. org!
  • 32. Kenya(case(–(2004(vs.(2013((Preliminary(Findings( •  Popula1on!growth!and!urbaniza1on!rate!between!2004L2013:!2.7%;!4.1%!! •  Charcoal!traded!increased!from!1.6m!t!in!2004!to!2.5m!t!in!2013:!5%/year! !!!!!!!!!2004→2013:!42kg(→(57kg/total!pop!capita/yr;!225kg(→(245kg/urban!pop!capita/yr!!! •  Trade!values!increased!L32!bil!ksh!in!2004!to!135!bil!ksh!in!2013:!17.3%/year!! •  Es1mated!charcoal!price!increase!=!17.3%L5%=12.3%/year! •  Consumer!infla1on!on!average!8.8%/year! •  Kerosene!prices!highly!fluctuatedL!+17%!in!2008!then!L14%!down!in!2009! •  LPG!prices!steadily!increased!between!2006!and!2009:!6.3%/year! •  Charcoal(prices(may(be(influenced(by(so(many(shortTlongTterm(factors…!
  • 33. Kenyan(case(T(How(stable(supply?( Preliminary(Findings( Acacia(niloJcaAcacia(torJlis Photo!by!G!NdegwaPhoto!by!G!Ndegwa Photo!by!G!Ndegwa Photo!by!G!Ndegwa www.fredhoogervorst.com! Acacia(mearnsii( Tarchonanthus((camphoratus www.plantzafrica.com www.florabank.org.au Seemingly!once!preferred!tree!species!get!exhausted!from!one!area,!supply!hot! spots!shiZing!possibly!farther!away!from!urban!areas!at!the!expense!of!sustainability! Prosopis(juliflora www.jircas.affrc.go.jp!!
  • 34. Kenyan(case(–(( How(flexible(prices(and(supply?( Pangani(from(Kajiado( South(B(from(Kitui( Kiambu(from(Tana(River( DagoreJ,(Kwangare,( Satellite(from(Baringo( Preliminary(Findings( @1300/bag( @1500/bag( Urban!markets!are!highly!segmented!due!to!cartels!!
  • 35. Data(constrains( Preliminary(Findings( to(esJmate(the(impacts(of(charcoal(demand(on(sustainability(of( supply,(most(case(studies/reviews(either(based(on(FAO(esJmates(( or(naJonal(surveys,(which(have(significant(inconsistencies( More(recent(reviews(( •  Arnold((2006)(–!FAO!! •  Zulu&(Richardson((2013)(–!socioLeconomic!study!reviews! •  Mwampamba((2013)(–!synthesis!of!charcoal!studies,!esp.!policies!! •  Chidumayo(&(Gumbo((2013)(–!FAO!&!FAO!FORESTAT!2005! Country(reports(( •  TZNL!HH!budget!survey,!econ!modeling! •  RwandaLVC!analysis,!spa1al!modeling! •  MalawiL!survey!on!4!largest!ci1es!! •  Kenya!–!survey!on!countries!purposely!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!selected! Reports(by(InternaJonal(OrganizaJons( •  World(Bank((2011)(–!IEA,!extrapola1on!for!SSA!based!on!KEN/TZN/MAL!surveys! •  GEF((2013)!–!FAO,!though!no1ng!that!actual!demand!could!be!4!1mes!larger! Case(studies(–(peerTreviewed(papers( •  TZN/Mwampamba!L!244!HHs!survey! •  Malawi/Zulu!–!na1onal!surveys&!policies! •  MiomboTZambia/Kutsch!–!data!on!3!plots! •  SSA/OpenshawL!FAO!!! ( Domain'1:! Deforestation'&'! charcoal'increase'along' with'urbanization! '! !! Domain'2:! Deforestation'&'! charcoal'decrease'along' with'urbanization! '! !! Domain'3:! Reforestation'&'! charcoal'increase'along' with'urbanization! '! !! Domain'4:! Reforestation'&'! charcoal'decrease'along'with' urbanization! '! !!Forest(area(change(2005T2010((%/year)(FAO( Charcoal(demand(elasJcity(to(urbanizaJon(2005T2010(%/%)(FAO(
  • 36. DataT(Inconsistencies(with(naJonal(surveys( •  FAOSTAT!wood!charcoal!vs.!es1mates!by!na1onal!surveys! Preliminary(Findings( Country( Source/year(of(survey/methods( Annual(charcoal( producJon(( FAOSTAT([%(to( naJonal(figure](( Kenya( ESDA(2005)/2004! Es1mates!based!on!survey!on!selected!coun1es!! 1.6!million!tons! !! 17,700!tons! [1.1%]! Kenya( KFS!(2013)/2013! Es1mates!based!on!survey!on!selected!coun1es!! 2.5!million!tons! !! 17,700!tons! (2011)! [0.7%]! Tanzania( World!Bank!(2009)/2007! household!budget!survey!&!modeling! 1!million!tons!! !! 1,041,000!tons!! [104%]! Rwanda( GTZ!(2009)/2008;!FAO!WISDOM!(2011)!!! Value!chain!survey,!spa1al!modeling! 150,000!tons!! !! 48,000!tons! [32%]! Malawi( Kambewa!et!al.!(2007)!*! /2007!! urban!energy!survey!on!4!major!ci1es! Openshaw(2010)!** !/review!of!various!surveys!! 256,863* !L297,151!**! tons! ! !! !! 456,600!tons! [154%L178%]! !! Kenya 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Wood Charcoal (tonnes) 640,501 16,500 17,000 16,700 17,700 17,700 17,700 17,700 17,700 17,700 17,700 17,700
  • 37. •  LowLkiln!efficiency!scenarios!translate!into!the!annual!deforesta1on!of! 96kL357kL625k!ha/year,!3!!L!10!!L18%!of!346k!ha!Kenya’s!forest!area,!even! larger!than!reported!deforesta1on!of!11k!ha/year!!! Data(T(Methodological(challenges( •  Some!es1mates!on!required!biomass!supply!to!meet!demand!(Mwampamba! 2007!with!244!HHs!data!in!TZN;!Chidumayo!&!Gumbo!2013!with!FAO!data)! assumed!all!charcoal!coming!from!forests,!and!applied!the!formula! !! Preliminary(Findings( !"#!$%&#'!!(&#(!)##*#*!!%!+##!!,%%*!*#+()*!$%&!-"(&-%(.! ("() =​!"#!2%.3+#!%$!,%%*!*#+()*!$%&!-"(&-%(.!(!)!/$%&#'!!'!%-5! *#)'6!7!(86%+(''!'!%-56)9!&(!#)!(​!/"( )  www.treeaid.org.uk! G!Ndegwa,!Tsavo!East! Nkemte,!Ethiopia! •  ex.!How(much(forest(area(needed(to(meet(the(demand(of(charcoal(consumed( in(Kenya(T(2.5m(t/year(or(6850(t/day((0.16kg[total]L0.67kg[urban]/capita/day)?!! !!!!!10%(kiln:(68500t/40(t/ha)=1712ha(((((10%(kiln(–(68500t/70(t/ha)=978ha((((10%(kiln(T68500t/260(t/ha)=263ha(( (((((((30%(kilnT((22605t/40(t/ha)(=565ha((((((30%(kiln(–(22605t/70(t/ha)=323ha((((30%(kiln(–(22605/260(t/ha)=87ha( ((((((((((( ((((((((((((((((( biomass(stock(=(40(t/ha( biomass(stock(=(70(t/ha( biomass(stock(=(260(t/ha( •  This!method!is!prone!to!possible!errors!as!some!charcoal!demand!met!from! trees!on!farm!outside!forests!(degrada1on)!or!as!byLproduct!of!deforesta1on! due!to!agricultural!land!clearance.!!
  • 38. Data(T(Methodological(challenges( Preliminary(Findings( •  FAO’s!Woodfuel!Integrated!Supply/Demand!Overview!Mapping!(WISDOM)! database!allowed!for!the!crea1on!of!maps(of(woody(biomass(stocking(and( potenJal(sustainable(producJvity(with!high!spa1al!resolu1on.!Similarly,!the! integra1on!of!popula1on!distribu1on!maps!with!fuelwood!and!charcoal! consump1on!values!by!sector!and!by!rural!seilements!and!urban!areas!resul1ng! from!the!review!of!a!wide!variety!of!sources,!allowed!the!crea1on!of!woodfuel( consumpJon(maps(at!the!spa1al!resolu1on!of!less!than!1!km.!! !"#!(&#(!)##*#*!!%!+##!!,%%*!*#+()*!$%&!-"(&-%(.!("() =​!"#!2%.3+#!%$!,%%*!*#+()*!$%&!-"(&-%(.!(!)!/86%+(''! '!%-56)9!&(!#!(​!/"( )  •  How!much! accurate???!! ! FAO!WISDOM!RWANDA!(2011)!
  • 39. FRA(2005( FRA(2010( Forest( Area( (ha)( Inconsistent!with!FAOSTAT! and!FRA!2010!for!some! countries! Consistent!with!FAOSTAT! Growing( stock( (m3/ha)( Report!on!2005!value,!and! changing!rates!for!1990L2005! to!allow!es1mates!on!1990! and!2000!values! Report!on!2010!value!only.!Calcula1on! change!between!2005!(FRA!2005!value)! and!2010!(FRA!2010!value)!!indicates! serious!discrepancies!between!two! FRAs.!! Biomass( stock((t/ ha)( Report!on!2005!value! Did!not!report!at!all,!need!to!!derive! from!carbon!stock!values! Carbon( stock((t/ ha)( Reported!only!on!2005!value! Reported!for!1990,!2000,!2005!and! 2010!values.!2005!value!differed!from! FRA!2005!and!FRA!2010.!! Changes!of!growing!stock!(m3,!%/year)!between!2005!(FRA2005)!and!2010!(FRA2010)! seemingly!has!some!serious!discrepancies.!Especially!for!some!countries,!against!the! decreasing!trends!of!forest!area!(ha)!and!carbon!stock!(t)!at!L0.5%!~!L1%/year,!!the! growing!stock!rate!increased!radically,!for!example!23%/year!(Indonesia)!~73%/year! (Cameroon),!…!! !20.00 !15.00 !10.00 !5.00 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 !10.00 !5.00 0.00 5.00 10.00 growing'stock'(m3)'change'199062000' (%/year)'FRA'2005 growing-stock-(m3) change-1990!2000 (%/year)-FRA-2005 !15.00 !10.00 !5.00 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 35.00 !10.00 !5.00 0.00 5.00 10.00 growing'stock'(m3)'change'200052005' (%/year)'FRA'2005 growing.stock.(m3) change.2000!2005 (%/year).FRA.2005 Botswana Cameroon E-Guinea Indonesia Kenya Mozambique 920.00 910.00 0.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00 60.00 70.00 80.00 910.00 95.00 0.00 5.00 10.00 growing'stock'(m3)'change'200562010' (%/year)'FRA'200562010 growing-stock-(m3) change-200592010 (%/year)-FRA-200592010 !20.00 !15.00 !10.00 !5.00 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 !10.00 !5.00 0.00 5.00 10.00 carbon'stock'(t)'change'199032000' (%/year)'FRA'2010 carbon-stock-(t)-change 1990!2000-(%/year)-FRA 2010 !20.00 !15.00 !10.00 !5.00 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 !10.00 !5.00 0.00 5.00 10.00 carbon'stock'(t)'change'200022005' (%/year)'FRA'2010 carbon-stock-(t)-change 2000!2005-(%/year)-FRA 2010 !20.00 !15.00 !10.00 !5.00 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 !10.00 !5.00 0.00 5.00 10.00 carbon'stock'(t)'change'200532010' (%/year)'FRA'2010 carbon-stock-(t)-change 2005!2010-(%/year)-FRA 2010 Data(–(Inconsistencies(in(reporJng( FAO(Forest(Resource(Assessment(2005/2010(not(consistent! Preliminary(Findings( Botswana Cameroon E-Guinea Indonesia Kenya Mozambique 920.00 910.00 0.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00 60.00 70.00 80.00 910.00 95.00 0.00 5.00 10.00 growing'stock'(m3)'change'200562010' (%/year)'FRA'200562010 growing-stock-(m3) change-200592010 (%/year)-FRA-200592010 Forest(area(change(2005T2010((%/year)(FAO( Growing(stock((m3/ha)change(2005T2010/%)( FAO(
  • 40. TentaJve(conclusion( •  Do!not!ignore!charcoal!issues!for!sustainable!development!in!SSA.! Seeming!lack!of!crises!(physical!scarcity)!due!to!slow/inelas1c!price! responses!does!not!mean!there!is!no!sustainability!issues.!In!fact,!there! can!be!serious!dryland!forest!degrada1on!ongoing.!!!! ! •  Need!a!systema1c!framework!to!examine!the!evidence! $ !!!!supply(management:!considera1on!of!physical!as!well!as! economic!scarci1es! $ !!!!demand(management:!understanding!percep1ons!on!coL benefits!of!energy!choice,!!beyond!financial/health!benefits!and! costs!of!energy!alterna1ves!! $ !!!!harmonizaJon(of(policies:!providing!clear!frameworks!for! stakeholders,!removing!distor1ons!so!as!to!increase!more!incen1ves! to!producers!!! !! •  Need!to!acknowledge!the!data!limita1ons!and!methodologies,!try!to! iden1fy!op1mal!strategies!to!present!supplyLdemand!projec1ons!to! s1mulate!policy!debates!and!ac1ons!for!mainstreaming!sustainable! charcoal! Preliminary(Findings(
  • 41. Thank(You!(((