Long-term trials for climate change     research and adaptation           Eike Luedeling                            Decemb...
Climate change             Rising temperatures          Potential changes in rainfall  Higher variability and more extreme...
Climate change          Climate change                 Adaptation                              MitigationImpacts          ...
Climate change                           Climate change                                  Adaptation                       ...
Impacts of climate change Long-term trials, combined with reliable weather  records are essential for understanding system...
Impacts of climate changeProjecting climate change impacts requires thorough    understanding of systems and robust models...
Impacts of climate changeLong-term trials allow using advanced statistical tools         for quantifying system responses ...
Carbon sequestrationMitigate climate change and pay farmers for C seq.                                                    ...
Carbon sequestrationMitigate climate change and pay farmers for C seq.                         C Seq. potential?          ...
Carbon sequestrationOne-off site comparisons may overestimate C storage  potential (hazard for C-selling farmers/projects)...
Variability and extreme events Impacts of extreme events (on non-obvious systemcharacteristics) can only be evaluated reli...
Adaptation and resilienceInclusion of wide range of crops / land use options  allows screening for resilience / risks / ad...
Adaptation and resilience                         Crop-risk profile                                                       ...
Trial sites as learning locations     Strategic placement of long-term trial sites            Avoid ‘disappearing climates...
Climate analogue analysisPresent climate           Future projected climate                  Mean of monthly              ...
Climate analogue analysis                       Climate similarity map                               South Sudan          ...
Climate analogue analysis                          Climate similarity map                                  South Sudan    ...
Climate analogue analysis    Climate analogue map for multiple climate scenarios                                          ...
Conclusions    Long-term trials are needed for quantitativelyinforming impact projections, for assessing mitigation   pote...
Thanks for your attention!   e.luedeling@cgiar.org                           December 2011
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Luedeling long term trials for climate change research

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Luedeling long term trials for climate change research

  1. 1. Long-term trials for climate change research and adaptation Eike Luedeling December 2011
  2. 2. Climate change Rising temperatures Potential changes in rainfall Higher variability and more extreme eventsNot all of these everywhere, but some of these somewhere…
  3. 3. Climate change Climate change Adaptation MitigationImpacts Resilience Land use system
  4. 4. Climate change Climate change Adaptation Mitigation Impacts Resilience Land use systemLong-term trials are needed for quantifying impacts and mitigation potentials and for finding robust adaptation strategies
  5. 5. Impacts of climate change Long-term trials, combined with reliable weather records are essential for understanding system response to weatherThis understanding allows projecting climate change impactsFor analyzing climate change impacts, all long-term trials should include weather monitoring
  6. 6. Impacts of climate changeProjecting climate change impacts requires thorough understanding of systems and robust modelsModels must be calibrated over wide range of climatic conditions Long-term trials allow using long-term weather formodel building, understanding processes well enough for reliable projections
  7. 7. Impacts of climate changeLong-term trials allow using advanced statistical tools for quantifying system responses E.g. PLS regression No data = no analysis Luedeling and Gassner, revision under review. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology.
  8. 8. Carbon sequestrationMitigate climate change and pay farmers for C seq. C Seq. potential? C stocks Agroforestry Agroforestry Agroforestry Maize Maize Maize t1 t2 t3
  9. 9. Carbon sequestrationMitigate climate change and pay farmers for C seq. C Seq. potential? C Seq. potential? C stocks Agroforestry Agroforestry Agroforestry Maize Maize Maize t1 t2 t3 Lower sequestration; less cash for farmers Long-term trials needed to expose real potential
  10. 10. Carbon sequestrationOne-off site comparisons may overestimate C storage potential (hazard for C-selling farmers/projects) Only long-term trials can show real potential for carbon sequestrationProvide information on long-term fate of sequestered carbon, in soil and biomass Does sequestered carbon survive extreme events? Data from long-term trials needed for modeling C sequestration potential ex ante
  11. 11. Variability and extreme events Impacts of extreme events (on non-obvious systemcharacteristics) can only be evaluated reliably, where long-term trials exist Important as baseline, and for ‘putting things in context’ (are extreme events really so extreme?)Long-term monitoring can trace system performance through variability cycles and extreme events, but they must be there before events happen
  12. 12. Adaptation and resilienceInclusion of wide range of crops / land use options allows screening for resilience / risks / adaptive potential Long-term trials allow evaluation for realistic variability scenarios One-off trials only expose adaptation to one particular manifestation of weatherDevelop models based on multi-year performancethat allow testing adaptation options with models
  13. 13. Adaptation and resilience Crop-risk profile Climate modelProbability (%) GHG emissions Time horizon Crop yield (% of max) Luedeling 2011. ‘Adaptation to Climate Change and Insurance’ project. Report to GIZ.
  14. 14. Trial sites as learning locations Strategic placement of long-term trial sites Avoid ‘disappearing climates’Maximize transferability of results to other sites, now and in the futureClimate analogue analysis can help determine most suitable locations
  15. 15. Climate analogue analysisPresent climate Future projected climate Mean of monthly temperatures ( C)
  16. 16. Climate analogue analysis Climate similarity map South Sudan Ethiopia C.A.R. Somalia Uganda Kenya Congo D.R.C. Climate Rw. Target Bu. analogue site location Tanzania AngolaEuclidean distance between projected climate at target site and current climate in the region
  17. 17. Climate analogue analysis Climate similarity map South Sudan Ethiopia C.A.R. Somalia Uganda Kenya Congo D.R.C. Climate Rw. Target Bu. analogue site location Tanzania AngolaLong-term trials at analogue site can provide information on potential of land use options for adaptation to one particular climate scenario
  18. 18. Climate analogue analysis Climate analogue map for multiple climate scenarios Climate projection C.A.R. South Sudan Ethiopia Uganda Kenya Congo D.R.C. Rw. Bu. TanzaniaLong-term trials at multiple analogue locations allow thorough testing of crops for climate change adaptation Such trials allow making robust, climate-change proof empirical models.
  19. 19. Conclusions Long-term trials are needed for quantitativelyinforming impact projections, for assessing mitigation potentials and for identifying robust adaptation options. Trial sites should be strategically placed to provideuseful information for as many locations as possible, considering projected climate change.
  20. 20. Thanks for your attention! e.luedeling@cgiar.org December 2011
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