Available Software Tools for Land Use GHG Inventories and Project Carbon Balance Verification Mark Easter Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory Colorado State University Fort Collins, Colorado USA [email_address] www.nrel.colostate.edu Collaborators: Keith Paustian, Stephen Ogle, Rich Conant, Ken Killian, Kris Peterson, Steve Williams, Dean Selby, Amy Swan, Shannon Spencer & the GEFSOC team. Funding: GEF/UNEP, US EPA, US USDA-NRCS

Carbon Benefits Project System Overview Measurement Protocol Module Guidance Module Activity Data Module Reporting and Auxiliary Module Measurement Data Module Remote sensing Ground-based measurements Calculation Module IPCC Tier 1 & 2 GEFSOC models Bayesian/LME models Information and work flows Project Description Module Text input Geographic input Socioeconomic Module Data Models

Overview System Design Issues Leveraging Existing Technologies to meet Project Objectives COMET ALU GEFSOC Uncertainty Analysis System Requirements

System Design Issues

Leveraging Existing Technologies to meet Project Objectives

COMET

ALU

GEFSOC

Uncertainty Analysis

System Requirements

System Design Issues Geographic Scope Community-based ~10 km 2 China Projects Landscape Scale ~ 100,000 km 2 Brazilian Amazon Niger/Nigeria Watershed/Catchment ~1,000 - 10,000 km 2 Kenya Projects Land Use / Mgmt Change Dominated by a Single LM Shift China Projects Complex, Dynamic Land Use & Mgmt Changes All Others

System Design Issues GEF Project Objectives Land Improvement Socio- Political Economic Improvements Capacity- Building System Users GEF Program Officers Project Managers at All Project Stages Community Groups in Sustainable Land Mgmt Interventions GHG Benefits & Uncertainty Project Resources Economic Factors Measurement Uncertainty Model/ Classification Uncertainty

System Design COMET-like interface & IPCC method for Tier 1/2 reporting Small land areas Straightforward land use transitions Limited number of soil and climate types Limited Uncertainty Analysis ALU system & IPCC method for Tier 1/2 reporting Moderate to large land areas Dynamic land use/mgmt transitions Multiple climate/soil combinations Limited Uncertainty Analysis ALU (front end) + GEFSOC modeling system (back end) for Tier 3 reporting approach Moderate to large land areas Dynamic land use/mgmt transitions Multiple climate/soil combinations Economic factors favor tier 3 inventory Advanced Uncertainty Analysis using Monte Carlo Method China Projects All Other Projects Amazon Niger/Nigeria

COMET-like interface & IPCC method for Tier 1/2 reporting

Small land areas

Straightforward land use transitions

Limited number of soil and climate types

Limited Uncertainty Analysis

ALU system & IPCC method for Tier 1/2 reporting

Moderate to large land areas

Dynamic land use/mgmt transitions

Multiple climate/soil combinations

Limited Uncertainty Analysis

ALU (front end) + GEFSOC modeling system (back end) for Tier 3 reporting approach

Moderate to large land areas

Dynamic land use/mgmt transitions

Multiple climate/soil combinations

Economic factors favor tier 3 inventory

Advanced Uncertainty Analysis using Monte Carlo Method

Existing Technologies COMET-VR ALU GEFSOC n=1 ∑ f (Time,Climate,Soil,LU,LM) 1000 Uncertainty Analysis

What is ALU? Agriculture and Land Use (ALU) National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Software Program Second generation of software, originally called CAALU Supports national reporting to the UNFCCC Data Collection and GHG Calculation tool designed to estimate GHG emissions from source categories in Agriculture and LULUCF IPCC GHG Inventory methods (96 GL, 2000 GPG, 2003 GPG LULUCF, 2006 GL) User-friendly interface guiding user through inventory process using IPCC recommended good practices Makes process more transparent than textual guidance and worksheets alone Extends design of IPCC worksheets interactive guidance and data management capabilities

Agriculture and Land Use (ALU) National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Software Program

Second generation of software, originally called CAALU

Supports national reporting to the UNFCCC

Data Collection and GHG Calculation tool designed to estimate GHG emissions from source categories in Agriculture and LULUCF

IPCC GHG Inventory methods (96 GL, 2000 GPG, 2003 GPG LULUCF, 2006 GL)

User-friendly interface guiding user through inventory process using IPCC recommended good practices

Makes process more transparent than textual guidance and worksheets alone

Extends design of IPCC worksheets interactive guidance and data management capabilities

Why is ALU Needed? Reporting Errors Inventories Incomplete Multiple Scientific Committees Eighty-two GHG flux calculations Eight GHG Source Categories Mixture of Reporting Units Conflicting Inventory Methods Twenty-Eight GHG Sub-source Categories 380+ Equation Factors

The ALU Project A way forward to improve application of IPCC methods for GHG Inventories in Agriculture and LULUCF Sectors Arguably most complicated sectors for GHG inventory assessment Important sectors in non-Annex I countries: Deforestation, Livestock Management, Rice Management, Fertilizer Use

A way forward to improve application of IPCC methods for GHG Inventories in Agriculture and LULUCF Sectors

Arguably most complicated sectors for GHG inventory assessment

Important sectors in non-Annex I countries: Deforestation, Livestock Management, Rice Management, Fertilizer Use

The ALU Project, cont’d ALU System

Land Use Grassland Management Cropland Management Forestland Management

Data management capability Activity data, factor files, emission results Utilize GIS-based data on land use and land use change derived from remote sensing imagery - Option Digital archive of all data and results Self-contained database with activity data, documentation references and results Institutional memory for long-term sustainability of GHG inventory Support reporting to the UNFCCC through capacity-building project The ALU Project, cont’d

Data management capability

Activity data, factor files, emission results

Utilize GIS-based data on land use and land use change derived from remote sensing imagery - Option

Digital archive of all data and results

Self-contained database with activity data, documentation references and results

Institutional memory for long-term sustainability of GHG inventory

Support reporting to the UNFCCC through capacity-building project

Activity Data Requirements Land use data Approach 1 Activity Data: Forest Lands, Croplands, Grasslands, Settlements, Wetlands and Other Lands By climate region and soil type Land management and associated data Croplands, grasslands, forest lands and settlements Livestock Basic Characterization Population numbers Manure management Dry lot, Pasture/Range Paddock, digesters, lagoons etc.

Land use data

Approach 1 Activity Data: Forest Lands, Croplands, Grasslands, Settlements, Wetlands and Other Lands

By climate region and soil type

Land management and associated data

Croplands, grasslands, forest lands and settlements

Livestock

Basic Characterization

Population numbers

Manure management

Dry lot, Pasture/Range Paddock, digesters, lagoons etc.

Activity Data Requirements (cont.) Nitrogen fertilizer, carbonate lime (limestone and dolomite) and sewage sludge additions to soils Rice management Water table management and organic amendment rates Crop residues Crop yields to estimate residue amounts Crop-specific residue to yield ratios Biomass C Loss Timber harvest Fuelwood gathering Stand-replacing disturbances fires, pest outbreaks, typhoons, etc. Deforestation

Nitrogen fertilizer, carbonate lime (limestone and dolomite) and sewage sludge additions to soils

Rice management

Water table management and organic amendment rates

Crop residues

Crop yields to estimate residue amounts

Crop-specific residue to yield ratios

Biomass C Loss

Timber harvest

Fuelwood gathering

Stand-replacing disturbances

fires, pest outbreaks, typhoons, etc.

Deforestation

Optional Activity Data A variety of options are provided to incorporate country-specific data Option to use Approach 2 and 3 Activity Data - Land Use Change Categories Country-specific climate, soil and land use subcategories Option for an Enhanced characterization of livestock Tier 2 emission factors for enteric and manure methane Country-specific livestock nitrogen excretion rates Settlement tree species and cover for biomass C stock change estimates

A variety of options are provided to incorporate country-specific data

Option to use Approach 2 and 3 Activity Data - Land Use Change Categories

Country-specific climate, soil and land use subcategories

Option for an Enhanced characterization of livestock

Tier 2 emission factors for enteric and manure methane

Country-specific livestock nitrogen excretion rates

Settlement tree species and cover for biomass C stock change estimates

Emission/Stock Change Factors Defaults (provided in ALU) or country-specific values Biomass C growth and loss factors Soil stock change factors and reference C stocks Soil N 2 O emission factors Enteric CH 4 emission factors Manure methane and N 2 O emission factors Biomass burning factors for non-CO 2 GHG emissions Rice CH 4 emission factors

Defaults (provided in ALU) or country-specific values

Biomass C growth and loss factors

Soil stock change factors and reference C stocks

Soil N 2 O emission factors

Enteric CH 4 emission factors

Manure methane and N 2 O emission factors

Biomass burning factors for non-CO 2 GHG emissions

Rice CH 4 emission factors

ALU Form Flow – Primary Land Use Data

ALU Database

ALU Current Status Software Beta version currently in demonstration and testing phase, final development Software Beta version release: July, 2009 Version 2 release: September, 2009 Begin version 3 development Summer, 2009 Allow comparison of land use scenarios Expanded GIS import support Build IPCC default datasets for other world regions

Software Beta version currently in demonstration and testing phase, final development

Software Beta version release: July, 2009

Version 2 release: September, 2009

Begin version 3 development Summer, 2009

Allow comparison of land use scenarios

Expanded GIS import support

Build IPCC default datasets for other world regions

Software Web Site: http://www.nrel.colostate.edu/projects/ghgtool/

Existing Technologies COMET-VR ALU GEFSOC n=1 ∑ f (Time,Climate,Soil,LU,LM) 1000 Uncertainty Analysis

COMET-VR & COMET-FARM Web-based Decision Support Tool Provides rapid assessment of GHG impacts of land use & mgmt scenarios CO 2 from CENTURY model Cropland N 2 O from DAYCENT-based metamodel, IPCC Livestock CH 4 /N 2 O from IPCC Emissions from fuel use per IPCC defaults

Web-based Decision Support Tool

Provides rapid assessment of GHG impacts of land use & mgmt scenarios

CO 2 from CENTURY model

Cropland N 2 O from DAYCENT-based metamodel, IPCC

Livestock CH 4 /N 2 O from IPCC

Emissions from fuel use per IPCC defaults

COMET Characteristics COMET-VR Has been deployed for four years User first specifies state, county, soil texture/hydric condition User then selects pre-populated crop rotations and tillage System returns CO2 and N2O flux estimates and CO2 uncertainty COMET-FARM Farm/Enterprise-scale version of COMET-VR + livestock & energy In development, Alpha release September, 2009 User draws in field boundaries and livestock herd/flock locations State/county/soil data pulled from GIS coverages System returns full GHG budget for farm/enterprise

COMET-VR

Has been deployed for four years

User first specifies state, county, soil texture/hydric condition

User then selects pre-populated crop rotations and tillage

System returns CO2 and N2O flux estimates and CO2 uncertainty

COMET-FARM

Farm/Enterprise-scale version of COMET-VR + livestock & energy

In development, Alpha release September, 2009

User draws in field boundaries and livestock herd/flock locations

State/county/soil data pulled from GIS coverages

System returns full GHG budget for farm/enterprise

COMET-VR Screen Shots

COMET-VR Screen Shots

COMET-VR Screen Shots

COMET-VR Screen Shots

COMET-VR Screen Shots

COMET-Like IPCC-Based Decision Support Tool Select Factor Dataset Equatorial Africa Central Asia Latin America Etc. Define Activity Data, Calculate Emissions Select Inventory Category Synthetic Fertilizer Land Use Livestock Liming Sewage Sludge IPCC Land Use Climate & Soil Define Land Use Category and Subcategory Enter Activity Data, Calculate Emissions IPCC Livestock Climate & Soil Define Livestock Category and Subcategory Enter Activity Data, Calculate Emissions

Select Factor Dataset

Equatorial Africa

Central Asia

Latin America

Etc.

Software Web Site: http://www.cometvr.colostate.edu

Existing Technologies COMET-VR ALU GEFSOC n=1 ∑ f (Time,Climate,Soil,LU,LM) 1000 Uncertainty Analysis

A system for regional/national level assessment of soil C dynamics The system is scaleable , with capabilities on the order of 10 8 soil-climate-management combinations. A system that is flexible ; address a variety of other issues (e.g. soil sustainability, N and P dynamics, full GHG accounting, etc.) and capabilities (e.g. multiple models accommodated). The GEFSOC System

A system for regional/national level assessment of soil C dynamics

The system is scaleable , with capabilities on the order of 10 8 soil-climate-management combinations.

A system that is flexible ; address a variety of other issues (e.g. soil sustainability, N and P dynamics, full GHG accounting, etc.) and capabilities (e.g. multiple models accommodated).

Technical Overview Design Goals for the GEFSOC modeling system Hardware and software components Modeling and data components Types of analysis possible

Design Goals for the GEFSOC modeling system

Hardware and software components

Modeling and data components

Types of analysis possible

Modelling System Goals Use readily available hardware components Take advantage of open source software and shareware to the maximum extent possible Use off-the-shelf software for tasks where open source software is not available Utilize computer skills generally available within the scientific community Link with SOTER and GIS Utilize land use data generally available Release the system as Open Source

Use readily available hardware components

Take advantage of open source software and shareware to the maximum extent possible

Use off-the-shelf software for tasks where open source software is not available

Utilize computer skills generally available within the scientific community

Link with SOTER and GIS

Utilize land use data generally available

Release the system as Open Source

Hardware and Software Personal Computer or Workstation Microsoft Windows 2000 or Microsoft Windows XP Personal Computer, Workstation, or Server Redhat LINUX Network Connection on Private Network using crossover cable or switch Windows Software Microsoft Access (database) ESRI ArcView or ArgGIS or other ActiveExperts Toolkit MySQL ODBC Driver MySQL Administrator Textpad text file editor Secure Shell Client LINUX Software CENTURY RothC MySQL (database) PERL PERL DBI Hardware all consists of off-the-shelf components Most software is shareware and can be downloaded off the web Software that is not shareware is readily available and relatively inexpensive

Hardware all consists of off-the-shelf components

Most software is shareware and can be downloaded off the web

Software that is not shareware is readily available and relatively inexpensive

Software Components GIS MS Access Front End MySQL Database Server Modeling System (PERL) Century RothC IPCC (SQL) Modeling System

Data consist of separate, distinct GIS coverages Each represents key elements required to drive the models Goal is to produce a unique intersection of all of the coverages Polygon-based or grid-based approaches possible Input Layers

Data consist of separate, distinct GIS coverages

Each represents key elements required to drive the models

Goal is to produce a unique intersection of all of the coverages

Polygon-based or grid-based approaches possible

Land Use/Mgmt Common problem in GHG Inventories: Land use data and histories dissociated from soil/climate data Land use sequences necessary to accurately assess current soil C stocks, change rates, scenarios How do we assess the area-extent of different land use transitions expressed within one land use polygon?

Common problem in GHG Inventories: Land use data and histories dissociated from soil/climate data

Land use sequences necessary to accurately assess current soil C stocks, change rates, scenarios

How do we assess the area-extent of different land use transitions expressed within one land use polygon?

Land Use/Mgmt, cont’d NF: Native Forest CSG: Cont small grains DASG: dryland legume hay-small grains FSG: fallow-small grains FSGO: fallow-small grains-oilseed FSGM: fallow-small grains-millet CC: clearcut forest PC: partial timber cut Fire: stand-replacing fire RF: Forest regenerating from fire or CC Northern Rocky Mtn Foothills

Land Use/Mgmt, cont’d National & sub-National GHG Inventories Completed: Brazilian Amazon Kenya Jordan Indo-Gangetic Plain of India Other National Inventories in Progress: Spain Italy

National & sub-National GHG Inventories Completed:

Brazilian Amazon

Kenya

Jordan

Indo-Gangetic Plain of India

Other National Inventories in Progress:

Spain

Italy

Results, Amazon Basin Modeled soil C stocks in the Amazon Basin, 1990 Source: Cerri et al. 2007.

Results, Amazon Basin Modeled soil C stock changes by land use in the Amazon Basin, 1990-2030 Source: Cerri et al. 2007.

Software Web Site: http://www.nrel.colostate.edu/projects/gefsoc-uk/

Existing Technologies COMET-VR ALU GEFSOC n=1 ∑ f (Time,Climate,Soil,LU,LM) 1000 Uncertainty Analysis

Uncertainty Analysis Utilize published uncertainties in IPCC method Include capacity to update (+/-) statistical uncertainties of IPCC factors Add Structural and non-Structural Uncertainty Techniques from U.S. GHG Inventory Employ Monte Carlo Methods

Utilize published uncertainties in IPCC method

Include capacity to update (+/-) statistical uncertainties of IPCC factors

Add Structural and non-Structural Uncertainty Techniques from U.S. GHG Inventory

Employ Monte Carlo Methods

System Requirements and Design Vision and Scope: “The suite of tools will be available, with full instructions on how to use them, from a single website during and beyond the lifetime of a project.” Web-based tools to support the CBP Guidance Module. System will provide user with GHG inventory based on project scenarios Provide ample, useful instruction and help files to support users. Build the system to last beyond the initial development and test period. Initial System Design Activities Describe users Develop User Interface Requirements Define Deployment Platform Assess Data Storage Requirements Assess Internet and Data Security Needs User Software Requirements Assess performance needs

Vision and Scope: “The suite of tools will be available, with full instructions on how to use them, from a single website during and beyond the lifetime of a project.”

Web-based tools to support the CBP Guidance Module.

System will provide user with GHG inventory based on project scenarios

Provide ample, useful instruction and help files to support users.

Build the system to last beyond the initial development and test period.

Initial System Design Activities

Describe users

Develop User Interface Requirements

Define Deployment Platform

Assess Data Storage Requirements

Assess Internet and Data Security Needs

User Software Requirements

Assess performance needs

System Requirements and Design, Cont’d Design and Development Risks Data Availability Interface Development Integration ALU Front-End with GEFSOC Modeling System User satisfaction, system use-ability Risks associated with parallel development of Guidance, Activity, Calculation, and Reporting Modules Design Process Goals (we proposing using the “Scrum” method): Rapid, iterative development of many smaller project sections Frequent assessment of project status Design process and status transparency Frequent interaction and communication between scientists, developers, client group

Design and Development Risks

Data Availability

Interface Development

Integration ALU Front-End with GEFSOC Modeling System

User satisfaction, system use-ability

Risks associated with parallel development of Guidance, Activity,

Calculation, and Reporting Modules

Design Process Goals (we proposing using the “Scrum” method):

Rapid, iterative development of many smaller project sections

Frequent assessment of project status

Design process and status transparency

Frequent interaction and communication between scientists, developers, client group

Mark Easter Natural Resources Ecology Laboratory Colorado State University Fort Collins, Colorado USA mark . easter@colostate.edu www.nrel.colostate.edu