Available Software Tools for Land Use GHG Inventories and Project Carbon Balance Verification

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Available Software Tools for Land Use GHG Inventories and Project Carbon Balance Verification

Available Software Tools for Land Use GHG Inventories and Project Carbon Balance Verification

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  • 1. Available Software Tools for Land Use GHG Inventories and Project Carbon Balance Verification Mark Easter Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory Colorado State University Fort Collins, Colorado USA [email_address] www.nrel.colostate.edu Collaborators: Keith Paustian, Stephen Ogle, Rich Conant, Ken Killian, Kris Peterson, Steve Williams, Dean Selby, Amy Swan, Shannon Spencer & the GEFSOC team. Funding: GEF/UNEP, US EPA, US USDA-NRCS
  • 2. Carbon Benefits Project System Overview Measurement Protocol Module Guidance Module Activity Data Module Reporting and Auxiliary Module Measurement Data Module Remote sensing Ground-based measurements Calculation Module IPCC Tier 1 & 2 GEFSOC models Bayesian/LME models Information and work flows Project Description Module Text input Geographic input Socioeconomic Module Data Models
  • 3. Overview
    • System Design Issues
    • Leveraging Existing Technologies to meet Project Objectives
      • COMET
      • ALU
      • GEFSOC
      • Uncertainty Analysis
    • System Requirements
  • 4. System Design Issues Geographic Scope Community-based ~10 km 2 China Projects Landscape Scale ~ 100,000 km 2 Brazilian Amazon Niger/Nigeria Watershed/Catchment ~1,000 - 10,000 km 2 Kenya Projects Land Use / Mgmt Change Dominated by a Single LM Shift China Projects Complex, Dynamic Land Use & Mgmt Changes All Others
  • 5. System Design Issues GEF Project Objectives Land Improvement Socio- Political Economic Improvements Capacity- Building System Users GEF Program Officers Project Managers at All Project Stages Community Groups in Sustainable Land Mgmt Interventions GHG Benefits & Uncertainty Project Resources Economic Factors Measurement Uncertainty Model/ Classification Uncertainty
  • 6. System Design
    • COMET-like interface & IPCC method for Tier 1/2 reporting
      • Small land areas
      • Straightforward land use transitions
      • Limited number of soil and climate types
      • Limited Uncertainty Analysis
    • ALU system & IPCC method for Tier 1/2 reporting
      • Moderate to large land areas
      • Dynamic land use/mgmt transitions
      • Multiple climate/soil combinations
      • Limited Uncertainty Analysis
    • ALU (front end) + GEFSOC modeling system (back end) for Tier 3 reporting approach
      • Moderate to large land areas
      • Dynamic land use/mgmt transitions
      • Multiple climate/soil combinations
      • Economic factors favor tier 3 inventory
      • Advanced Uncertainty Analysis using Monte Carlo Method
    China Projects All Other Projects Amazon Niger/Nigeria
  • 7. Existing Technologies COMET-VR ALU GEFSOC n=1 ∑ f (Time,Climate,Soil,LU,LM) 1000 Uncertainty Analysis
  • 8. What is ALU?
    • Agriculture and Land Use (ALU) National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Software Program
      • Second generation of software, originally called CAALU
      • Supports national reporting to the UNFCCC
    • Data Collection and GHG Calculation tool designed to estimate GHG emissions from source categories in Agriculture and LULUCF
      • IPCC GHG Inventory methods (96 GL, 2000 GPG, 2003 GPG LULUCF, 2006 GL)
    • User-friendly interface guiding user through inventory process using IPCC recommended good practices
      • Makes process more transparent than textual guidance and worksheets alone
    • Extends design of IPCC worksheets interactive guidance and data management capabilities
  • 9. Why is ALU Needed? Reporting Errors Inventories Incomplete Multiple Scientific Committees Eighty-two GHG flux calculations Eight GHG Source Categories Mixture of Reporting Units Conflicting Inventory Methods Twenty-Eight GHG Sub-source Categories 380+ Equation Factors
  • 10. The ALU Project
    • A way forward to improve application of IPCC methods for GHG Inventories in Agriculture and LULUCF Sectors
    • Arguably most complicated sectors for GHG inventory assessment
    • Important sectors in non-Annex I countries: Deforestation, Livestock Management, Rice Management, Fertilizer Use
  • 11. The ALU Project, cont’d ALU System
  • 12. Land Use Grassland Management Cropland Management Forestland Management
  • 13.
    • Data management capability
      • Activity data, factor files, emission results
      • Utilize GIS-based data on land use and land use change derived from remote sensing imagery - Option
    • Digital archive of all data and results
      • Self-contained database with activity data, documentation references and results
      • Institutional memory for long-term sustainability of GHG inventory
    • Support reporting to the UNFCCC through capacity-building project
    The ALU Project, cont’d
  • 14. Activity Data Requirements
    • Land use data
      • Approach 1 Activity Data: Forest Lands, Croplands, Grasslands, Settlements, Wetlands and Other Lands
      • By climate region and soil type
    • Land management and associated data
      • Croplands, grasslands, forest lands and settlements
    • Livestock
      • Basic Characterization
        • Population numbers
      • Manure management
        • Dry lot, Pasture/Range Paddock, digesters, lagoons etc.
  • 15. Activity Data Requirements (cont.)
    • Nitrogen fertilizer, carbonate lime (limestone and dolomite) and sewage sludge additions to soils
    • Rice management
      • Water table management and organic amendment rates
    • Crop residues
      • Crop yields to estimate residue amounts
      • Crop-specific residue to yield ratios
    • Biomass C Loss
      • Timber harvest
      • Fuelwood gathering
      • Stand-replacing disturbances
        • fires, pest outbreaks, typhoons, etc.
      • Deforestation
  • 16. Optional Activity Data
    • A variety of options are provided to incorporate country-specific data
    • Option to use Approach 2 and 3 Activity Data - Land Use Change Categories
    • Country-specific climate, soil and land use subcategories
    • Option for an Enhanced characterization of livestock
      • Tier 2 emission factors for enteric and manure methane
    • Country-specific livestock nitrogen excretion rates
    • Settlement tree species and cover for biomass C stock change estimates
  • 17. Emission/Stock Change Factors
    • Defaults (provided in ALU) or country-specific values
    • Biomass C growth and loss factors
    • Soil stock change factors and reference C stocks
    • Soil N 2 O emission factors
    • Enteric CH 4 emission factors
    • Manure methane and N 2 O emission factors
    • Biomass burning factors for non-CO 2 GHG emissions
    • Rice CH 4 emission factors
  • 18.  
  • 19. ALU Form Flow – Primary Land Use Data
  • 20. ALU Database
  • 21. ALU Current Status
    • Software Beta version currently in demonstration and testing phase, final development
    • Software Beta version release: July, 2009
    • Version 2 release: September, 2009
    • Begin version 3 development Summer, 2009
      • Allow comparison of land use scenarios
      • Expanded GIS import support
      • Build IPCC default datasets for other world regions
  • 22. Software Web Site: http://www.nrel.colostate.edu/projects/ghgtool/
  • 23. Existing Technologies COMET-VR ALU GEFSOC n=1 ∑ f (Time,Climate,Soil,LU,LM) 1000 Uncertainty Analysis
    • Web-based Decision Support Tool
    • Provides rapid assessment of GHG impacts of land use & mgmt scenarios
    • CO 2 from CENTURY model
    • Cropland N 2 O from DAYCENT-based metamodel, IPCC
    • Livestock CH 4 /N 2 O from IPCC
    • Emissions from fuel use per IPCC defaults
  • 25. COMET Characteristics
    • COMET-VR
    • Has been deployed for four years
    • User first specifies state, county, soil texture/hydric condition
    • User then selects pre-populated crop rotations and tillage
    • System returns CO2 and N2O flux estimates and CO2 uncertainty
    • Farm/Enterprise-scale version of COMET-VR + livestock & energy
    • In development, Alpha release September, 2009
    • User draws in field boundaries and livestock herd/flock locations
    • State/county/soil data pulled from GIS coverages
    • System returns full GHG budget for farm/enterprise
  • 26. COMET-VR Screen Shots
  • 27. COMET-VR Screen Shots
  • 28. COMET-VR Screen Shots
  • 29. COMET-VR Screen Shots
  • 30. COMET-VR Screen Shots
  • 31. COMET-Like IPCC-Based Decision Support Tool
    • Select Factor Dataset
    • Equatorial Africa
    • Central Asia
    • Latin America
    • Etc.
    Define Activity Data, Calculate Emissions Select Inventory Category Synthetic Fertilizer Land Use Livestock Liming Sewage Sludge IPCC Land Use Climate & Soil Define Land Use Category and Subcategory Enter Activity Data, Calculate Emissions IPCC Livestock Climate & Soil Define Livestock Category and Subcategory Enter Activity Data, Calculate Emissions
  • 32. Software Web Site: http://www.cometvr.colostate.edu
  • 33. Existing Technologies COMET-VR ALU GEFSOC n=1 ∑ f (Time,Climate,Soil,LU,LM) 1000 Uncertainty Analysis
  • 34.
    • A system for regional/national level assessment of soil C dynamics
    • The system is scaleable , with capabilities on the order of 10 8 soil-climate-management combinations.
    • A system that is flexible ; address a variety of other issues (e.g. soil sustainability, N and P dynamics, full GHG accounting, etc.) and capabilities (e.g. multiple models accommodated).
    The GEFSOC System
  • 35. Technical Overview
    • Design Goals for the GEFSOC modeling system
    • Hardware and software components
    • Modeling and data components
    • Types of analysis possible
  • 36. Modelling System Goals
    • Use readily available hardware components
    • Take advantage of open source software and shareware to the maximum extent possible
    • Use off-the-shelf software for tasks where open source software is not available
    • Utilize computer skills generally available within the scientific community
    • Link with SOTER and GIS
    • Utilize land use data generally available
    • Release the system as Open Source
  • 37. Hardware and Software Personal Computer or Workstation Microsoft Windows 2000 or Microsoft Windows XP Personal Computer, Workstation, or Server Redhat LINUX Network Connection on Private Network using crossover cable or switch Windows Software Microsoft Access (database) ESRI ArcView or ArgGIS or other ActiveExperts Toolkit MySQL ODBC Driver MySQL Administrator Textpad text file editor Secure Shell Client LINUX Software CENTURY RothC MySQL (database) PERL PERL DBI
    • Hardware all consists of off-the-shelf components
    • Most software is shareware and can be downloaded off the web
    • Software that is not shareware is readily available and relatively inexpensive
  • 38. Software Components GIS MS Access Front End MySQL Database Server Modeling System (PERL) Century RothC IPCC (SQL) Modeling System
  • 39.
    • Data consist of separate, distinct GIS coverages
    • Each represents key elements required to drive the models
    • Goal is to produce a unique intersection of all of the coverages
    • Polygon-based or grid-based approaches possible
    Input Layers
  • 40. Land Use/Mgmt
    • Common problem in GHG Inventories: Land use data and histories dissociated from soil/climate data
    • Land use sequences necessary to accurately assess current soil C stocks, change rates, scenarios
    • How do we assess the area-extent of different land use transitions expressed within one land use polygon?
  • 41. Land Use/Mgmt, cont’d NF: Native Forest CSG: Cont small grains DASG: dryland legume hay-small grains FSG: fallow-small grains FSGO: fallow-small grains-oilseed FSGM: fallow-small grains-millet CC: clearcut forest PC: partial timber cut Fire: stand-replacing fire RF: Forest regenerating from fire or CC Northern Rocky Mtn Foothills
  • 42. Land Use/Mgmt, cont’d
    • National & sub-National GHG Inventories Completed:
      • Brazilian Amazon
      • Kenya
      • Jordan
      • Indo-Gangetic Plain of India
    • Other National Inventories in Progress:
      • Spain
      • Italy
  • 43. Results, Amazon Basin Modeled soil C stocks in the Amazon Basin, 1990 Source: Cerri et al. 2007.
  • 44. Results, Amazon Basin Modeled soil C stock changes by land use in the Amazon Basin, 1990-2030 Source: Cerri et al. 2007.
  • 45. Software Web Site: http://www.nrel.colostate.edu/projects/gefsoc-uk/
  • 46. Existing Technologies COMET-VR ALU GEFSOC n=1 ∑ f (Time,Climate,Soil,LU,LM) 1000 Uncertainty Analysis
  • 47. Uncertainty Analysis
    • Utilize published uncertainties in IPCC method
    • Include capacity to update (+/-) statistical uncertainties of IPCC factors
    • Add Structural and non-Structural Uncertainty Techniques from U.S. GHG Inventory
    • Employ Monte Carlo Methods
  • 48. System Requirements and Design
    • Vision and Scope: “The suite of tools will be available, with full instructions on how to use them, from a single website during and beyond the lifetime of a project.”
      • Web-based tools to support the CBP Guidance Module.
      • System will provide user with GHG inventory based on project scenarios
      • Provide ample, useful instruction and help files to support users.
      • Build the system to last beyond the initial development and test period.
    • Initial System Design Activities
      • Describe users
      • Develop User Interface Requirements
      • Define Deployment Platform
      • Assess Data Storage Requirements
      • Assess Internet and Data Security Needs
      • User Software Requirements
      • Assess performance needs
  • 49. System Requirements and Design, Cont’d
    • Design and Development Risks
      • Data Availability
      • Interface Development
      • Integration ALU Front-End with GEFSOC Modeling System
      • User satisfaction, system use-ability
      • Risks associated with parallel development of Guidance, Activity,
      • Calculation, and Reporting Modules
    • Design Process Goals (we proposing using the “Scrum” method):
      • Rapid, iterative development of many smaller project sections
      • Frequent assessment of project status
      • Design process and status transparency
      • Frequent interaction and communication between scientists, developers, client group
  • 50. Mark Easter Natural Resources Ecology Laboratory Colorado State University Fort Collins, Colorado USA mark . easter@colostate.edu www.nrel.colostate.edu