GRP on Climate Change  Outlook 2011 Henry Neufeldt On behalf of the whole GRP5 team ICRAF Science Week Nairobi, 12 Septemb...
Major climate change (and variability?) at ICRAF <ul><li>Baseline: Statesman </li></ul><ul><li>Climate trajectory: Elder s...
The limits of adaptation (Source: Parry et al., 2010)
Contributions to climate change Agriculture, forestry and land use change are currently  responsible for 25% to 30% of tot...
Correlation between GDP and rainfall in Zimbabwe Correlation between GDP and Rainfall in Zimbabwe
Benefits of trees on farms <ul><li>Biophysical benefits (e.g. shade, nutrients, water, SOM) </li></ul><ul><li>Higher yield...
Short-term losses vs. long-term benefits
GRP 5.1 on Adaptation: Vulnerability and adaptation of agroforestry systems to climate variability and change GRP 5.2 on M...
Climate variability and change 1. Adaptation to progressive climate change 2. Adaptation through managing climate risk   3...
There are three research themes in Component 4 <ul><li>Research Theme 1: Harnessing forests, trees and agroforestry for cl...
<ul><li>Currently processed - </li></ul><ul><li>Scenario SRES A1B  </li></ul><ul><li>5 GCMs (CNRM, CSIRO, ECHAM5, MIROC3) ...
Further analysis will be based on – Heubes, J., Kühn, I., König, K., Wittig, R., Zizka, G. and Hahn, K. (2011), Modelling ...
Innovation Climate analogues
GHG flux measurement v1: GC and IRGA
GHG flux measurement v2: PAS Multi-gas analyzer
Key Successes
Critical issues and ICRAF research focus <ul><ul><li>Action site for interventions of  Reduce Emission from all land uses,...
 
Climate vulnerability, food security and coping strategies in western Kenya <ul><li>Farmers most interested in reducing fo...
Recommendations <ul><li>Pair agroforestry with agricultural training to overcome the long lag times before agroforestry be...
Tenure security
Tenure and Investment in Woody Vegetation
¡¿  Thanks for a future !?
<ul><li>Predictability of the climatic information for reducing tropical agriculture vulnerability (PICREVAT) </li></ul><u...
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GRP on Climate Change Outlook 2011

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Presented during ICRAF Science Week Nairobi, 12 September 2011

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  • about adaptation and mitigation strategies, from local to global levels
  • A teaser – sadly only with a sub-set of the data, suggests the “tenure effect” is fully developed after 7 years.
  • Aebe, more investments in tree crops, woodlots and hedgerows on securely tenured land compared with untenured land.
  • GRP on Climate Change Outlook 2011

    1. 1. GRP on Climate Change Outlook 2011 Henry Neufeldt On behalf of the whole GRP5 team ICRAF Science Week Nairobi, 12 September 2011
    2. 2. Major climate change (and variability?) at ICRAF <ul><li>Baseline: Statesman </li></ul><ul><li>Climate trajectory: Elder statesman </li></ul><ul><li>Δ T: Very warm hearted; can T still rise? </li></ul><ul><li>Δ P: Will cause many tears upon departure (flooding?) </li></ul><ul><li>Adaptation: Continue working on evergreen agriculture </li></ul><ul><li>Mitigation: Electric motorcycling; less travel; Fairherbia albida </li></ul><ul><li>Baseline: No beard (yet?) </li></ul><ul><li>Climate trajectory: not quite clear yet (low res photo) </li></ul><ul><li>Δ T: Can T still rise? (requires high doses of Diet Coke to cool down) </li></ul><ul><li>Δ P: Unclear; could lead to more or less tears (robust adaptation required!) </li></ul><ul><li>Adaptation: More Coke? Learn from indigenous peoples </li></ul><ul><li>Mitigation: Successfully lead ICRAF in CRP context </li></ul>
    3. 3. The limits of adaptation (Source: Parry et al., 2010)
    4. 4. Contributions to climate change Agriculture, forestry and land use change are currently responsible for 25% to 30% of total GHG emissions
    5. 5. Correlation between GDP and rainfall in Zimbabwe Correlation between GDP and Rainfall in Zimbabwe
    6. 6. Benefits of trees on farms <ul><li>Biophysical benefits (e.g. shade, nutrients, water, SOM) </li></ul><ul><li>Higher yields and income </li></ul><ul><li>Diversification of products and increased adaptive capacity </li></ul><ul><li>Carbon sequestration and mitigation </li></ul>
    7. 7. Short-term losses vs. long-term benefits
    8. 8. GRP 5.1 on Adaptation: Vulnerability and adaptation of agroforestry systems to climate variability and change GRP 5.2 on Mitigation: Advancing carbon sequestration through agroforestry to enhance livelihoods while mitigating climate change Research Focus of the GRP on Climate Change <ul><li>Impact Assessment (CRP7.1+7.2+7.4; and some CRP6.4) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Downscaling climate models and development of climate analogues </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Climate impacts on agroforestry species, pollinators, vectors and diseases </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Impacts on economic activities </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Adaptation research (CRP7.1+7.2; and some CRP6.4) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Assessment of vulnerabilities and adaptation strategies </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Improving adaptive capacity (e.g. through agroforestry) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Limits of adaptation and innovative risk management strategies </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Mitigation research (CRP7.3; CRP6.4) </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Using RES and other approaches for climate change mitigation </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Development of (more) sustainable biofuel production systems (e.g. charcoal) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Assessment of GHG fluxes from different soils and LU systems </li></ul></ul></ul>
    9. 9. Climate variability and change 1. Adaptation to progressive climate change 2. Adaptation through managing climate risk 3. Pro-poor climate change mitigation Technologies, practices, policies and capacity enhancement: 4. Integration for decision making Enhanced adaptive capacity in agricultural, NRM & food systems Improved environmental benefits Improved livelihoods Improved food security Trade-offs and synergies
    10. 10. There are three research themes in Component 4 <ul><li>Research Theme 1: Harnessing forests, trees and agroforestry for climate change mitigation </li></ul><ul><li>Research Theme 2: Enhancing climate change adaptation through forests, trees and agroforestry </li></ul><ul><li>Research Theme 3: Understanding the role of forests, trees and agroforestry in achieving synergies between climate change mitigation and adaptation </li></ul>
    11. 11. <ul><li>Currently processed - </li></ul><ul><li>Scenario SRES A1B </li></ul><ul><li>5 GCMs (CNRM, CSIRO, ECHAM5, MIROC3) </li></ul><ul><li>2030, 2050, 2080 </li></ul><ul><li>Currently compiled - </li></ul><ul><li><150,000 species occ. records </li></ul><ul><li>179 AGF tree species </li></ul><ul><li><50 data providers complement GBIF data </li></ul>Species records Source: GBIF et al. Downscaled climate data Source: CIAT Cacao Agroforestry records Source: Zomer et al. <ul><li>Records based on - </li></ul><ul><li>Zomer 2009. Trees on Farm </li></ul><ul><li>Eva et al. 2002. GLC 2000 SA </li></ul><ul><li>S émhur 2009. World distribution map of cacao tree species </li></ul>Adressing climate change impact on AGF in the Amazon – ii) datasets ICRAF LA Financed by GRP5 Marketplace 2010: i) Impacts of climate change on the distribution of AGF tree species in the Amazon – a sensitivity analysis, ii) Global agroforestry trajectories under a changing climate - for details contact Konstantin König – k.koenig@cgiar.org
    12. 12. Further analysis will be based on – Heubes, J., Kühn, I., König, K., Wittig, R., Zizka, G. and Hahn, K. (2011), Modelling biome shifts and tree cover change for 2050 in West Africa. Journal of Biogeography. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2699.2011.02560.x Financed by GRP5 Marketplace 2010: i) Impacts of climate change on the distribution of AGF tree species in the Amazon – a sensitivity analysis, ii) Global agroforestry trajectories under a changing climate - for details contact Konstantin König – k.koenig@cgiar.org Adressing climate change impact on AGF in the Amazon – iii) results AGF tree species predictions Climate driven shifts of AGF systems Recent distribution of Cacau AGF Systems in the Amazon Prediction of Cacau Agroforesty Systems in 2050 (SRES A1B, Echam5) ICRAF LA
    13. 13. Innovation Climate analogues
    14. 14. GHG flux measurement v1: GC and IRGA
    15. 15. GHG flux measurement v2: PAS Multi-gas analyzer
    16. 16. Key Successes
    17. 17. Critical issues and ICRAF research focus <ul><ul><li>Action site for interventions of Reduce Emission from all land uses, and Rewarding for Environmental Services </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>PES and non-PES lessons learnt </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Access to AF Germplasm </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>and small-holders nursery </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>‘ AF for small-holders’ livelihood </li></ul></ul>Critical issues: Low productivity on sloping land, high poverty rate, high rate of deforestation and degradation, poor cross-sectoral land use planning. Vulnerable to the increased climate variability <ul><ul><li>CC adaptation </li></ul></ul>
    18. 19. Climate vulnerability, food security and coping strategies in western Kenya <ul><li>Farmers most interested in reducing food insecurity </li></ul><ul><li>No long- or medium-term planning possible under food insecure situation </li></ul><ul><li>Food insecurity rose by at least one month (above on average 3 months) during recent drought and floods </li></ul><ul><li>Coping strategies lead into ‘poverty trap’ </li></ul><ul><li>Tree planting (and other investments in livelihood improvements) only after basic food security is guaranteed </li></ul><ul><li>Repercussion on strategies for development support? </li></ul>All #s in % Reduce Quantity, Quality or # of meals Comm-unity or family support Help from Gov, NGO, Church Borrow money Casual Labor Sell possess-ions or livestock Consume Seeds Children attend school less Lower Nyando 85 30 42 32 28 72 72 38 Middle Nyando 38 23 18 37.5 25 40 61 12.5
    19. 20. Recommendations <ul><li>Pair agroforestry with agricultural training to overcome the long lag times before agroforestry benefits typically emerge and to address the more immediate needs of hunger alleviation </li></ul><ul><li>Improve market accessibility to enhance income-generating opportunities provided by agroforestry techniques </li></ul><ul><li>Increase access to farm implements and capital </li></ul><ul><li>Organize educational farm visits to successful agroforestry projects to increase adoption of agroforestry techniques </li></ul><ul><li>Involve farmers in the project planning process to best ensure targeting farmer demands </li></ul>
    20. 21. Tenure security
    21. 22. Tenure and Investment in Woody Vegetation
    22. 23. ¡¿ Thanks for a future !?
    23. 24. <ul><li>Predictability of the climatic information for reducing tropical agriculture vulnerability (PICREVAT) </li></ul><ul><li>Secular evolution of climate in circum-atlantic regions and responses of eco-lacustrine sustems (ESCARSEL) </li></ul><ul><li>Rungwe Environmental Science Observatory Network (RESON) </li></ul><ul><li>Opportunity Cost of Different Land Use Options to Promote Agroforestry, Carbon and Biodiversity Assets: Case Study in Xishuangbanna </li></ul><ul><li>Coping, Adaptation and Vulnerability to Drought in Yunnan, Southwest China </li></ul><ul><li>Understanding Vulnerability of the Poor Mountain Farmers and Their Adaptation to Climate Variability and Socio-economic Stressors in Southwest China </li></ul><ul><li>Parkland trees and livelihoods: adapting to climate change in the West African Sahel </li></ul><ul><li>Wood quality and carbon-neutral fuelwood systems of native tree/shrub species in natural populations in the West African Sahel </li></ul><ul><li>National REDD network of Vietnam </li></ul><ul><li>Rewards for, Use of and shared investment in Pro-poor Environmental Services schemes (RUPES), phase II </li></ul><ul><li>Agroforestry for Climate change Adaptation in Vietnam and Kenya - Local and Scientific knowledge for Option Development </li></ul><ul><li>Architecture of REALU: Reducing Emissions from All Land Uses- REALU (Phase II) </li></ul><ul><li>Toward a biodiverse rubber estate: Quick biodiversity survey of Bridgestone Sumatra Rubber Estate </li></ul><ul><li>Impacts of Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation and enhancing carbon stocks (I-REDD) </li></ul><ul><li>Strategies to Use Biofuel Value Chains in Sub-Saharan Africa to Respond to Global Change (Better-iS) </li></ul><ul><li>Pro poor rewards for environmental services in Africa (PRESA) </li></ul><ul><li>Resilient Agro-landscapes to Climate Change in Tanzania (ReACCT) </li></ul><ul><li>Carbon sequestration potential of parkland agroforestry in the Sahel (Cseq Sahel) </li></ul><ul><li>Carbon assessment in robusta shade coffee systems of Uganda (‘Carbon Coffee’) </li></ul><ul><li>Adaptation of Land-use to Climate Change in sub-Saharan Africa (ALUCCSA); same as 35 </li></ul><ul><li>Accountability Local Level Initiative to Reduce Emission from Deforestation and Degradation in Indonesia (ALLREDDI) </li></ul><ul><li>Encouraging tree planting for carbon sequestration in Malawi </li></ul><ul><li>Crop insurance scheme and adaptation to climate change in the Shire river basin Malawi </li></ul><ul><li>Bioenergy Provision within Agroforestry Systems in East Africa </li></ul><ul><li>Analysis of the effects of inter-annual variation in rainfall and occurrence of extreme events on water use efficiency by crops in Agroforestry </li></ul><ul><li>Climate analogues: A flexible and powerful web-based tool for identifying and visualizing climate analogues </li></ul><ul><li>Power Relations and REDD: unpacking ‘carbon rights’ and addressing the question of legality in Indonesia </li></ul><ul><li>Fair and efficient and Sustainable Emission Reduction from Land Use in Indonesia (FESERLUI) </li></ul><ul><li>A Study of Carbon Footprint of Indonesian Palm Oil Production </li></ul><ul><li>Forests and Climate in the Asia Pacific Region </li></ul><ul><li>Patterns of Vulnerability in the Forestry, Agriculture, Water Sectors and the Costal Zones in Leyte Island, Philippines </li></ul><ul><li>Feasibility of REDD mechanisms in the case of the East Usambaras, Tanzania </li></ul><ul><li>Sumatran orangutan habitat ecosystem services assessment and opportunity cost analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Rewards for Use of and Shared Investment in Pro-poor Environmental Services (RUPES) – Kalahan, Philippines </li></ul><ul><li>Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation in Asia and the Pacific </li></ul><ul><li>Carbon Mitigation Potential of REDD in the Philippines: Will it make a Difference in Financing Forest Development? </li></ul><ul><li>Overcoming Barriers of Smallholder Forestry Carbon Development in the Philippines </li></ul><ul><li>Linking Climate Change Adaptation to Sustainable Development in Southeast Asia </li></ul><ul><li>Tropical Forest and Climate Change Adaptation (TroFCCA) </li></ul><ul><li>Carbon Benefits Project: Measurement, Monitoring and Modeling (CBP:MMM) </li></ul><ul><li>Enabling small holders to improve their livelihoods and benefit from carbon finance </li></ul><ul><li>The COMART FOUNDATION West Kenya Project 2010 Impact Assessment </li></ul><ul><li>Biochar inoculants for enabling smallholder agriculture (BREAD) </li></ul>List of all ongoing projects with climate change contexts
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