Climate analogues for climate change adaptation planning

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Climate analogues for climate change adaptation planning

  1. 1. Climate analogues for climate change adaptation planning<br />Eike Luedeling<br />GRP5<br />
  2. 2. Climate change<br />NASA-GISS, 2009. www.giss.nasa.gov<br />
  3. 3. Climate change<br />Annual rainfall<br />change (mm)<br />CCCMA model<br />A2a scenario<br />2080s<br />
  4. 4. Climate change impacts<br />
  5. 5. Climate change impacts<br />Projected yield changes by 2050<br />5th percentile<br />Mean<br />95th percentile<br />Maize<br />Impact (percent)<br />Sorghum<br />Millet<br />Schlenker and Lobell, 2010. Environmental Research Letters 5, 014010 (8 pp)<br />
  6. 6. Adaptation / Mitigation<br />Open questions<br />How can we adapt?<br />How can we mitigate?<br />How can we be sure that adaptation is appropriate?<br />How can we be sure that mitigation is sustainable?<br />How to take adaptation and mitigation measures that are quantitatively appropriate for expected impacts of climate change? <br />
  7. 7. Modeling climate change impacts<br />Ecological or agricultural models<br />+<br />Climate projections<br />=<br />Impact projection<br />Annual rainfall (CCCMA model; A2a scenario; 2080s)<br />
  8. 8. Climate change impacts<br />Projected yield changes by 2030<br />EU wheat<br />Indonesia rice<br />US wheat<br />20<br />India rice<br />US maize<br />0<br />% Yield Change<br />Canada wheat<br />Brazil soy<br />China wheat<br />-20<br />China rice<br />Malawimaize<br />-40<br />High productivity<br />South Africa maize<br />Central outcome<br />Low productivity<br />Hertelet al., 2010. Global Environmental Change – Human and Policy Dimensions 20, 577-585<br />
  9. 9. Modeling climate change impacts<br />Winter chill for temperate fruit trees<br />Luedeling et al., PLoS ONE, in press.<br />
  10. 10. Modeling climate change impacts<br />Winter chill for temperate fruit trees<br />Colorful maps… what do they mean to decision makers?<br />Sometimes a lot, normally not much!<br />Luedeling et al., PLoS ONE, in press.<br />
  11. 11. Limitations to modeling<br />Tree life cycle<br />Weather extremes<br />Pest pressure<br />Summer heat<br />Yield<br />Many systems are too complicated to model<br />Pruning<br />Diseases<br />Winter chill<br />
  12. 12. Limitations to modeling<br />Bad models…<br />Many models are by definition unsuitable for climate change analysis<br />How quantitatively reliable are model projections?<br />Chilling Hours<br />Utah Model<br />Pos. Utah<br />Dynamic<br />Chilling Hours<br />Utah Model<br />Pos. Utah<br />Dynamic <br />Luedeling et al., 2009. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 133, 23-31.<br />
  13. 13. Climate analogue analysis – an alternative approach?<br />Similar?<br />Mean monthly temp in Africa<br />Somewhat similar?<br />Similar?<br />Present<br />Future<br />CCCMA<br />A2a<br />2080<br />
  14. 14. Climate analogue analysis – an alternative approach?<br />Similar?<br />Mean monthly temp in Africa<br />Most projected climates for a given location exist elsewhere at present!<br />Somewhat similar?<br />Similar?<br />Where are they?<br />Can we learn lessons from climate analogues?<br />Present<br />Future<br />CCCMA<br />A2a<br />2080<br />
  15. 15. Climate analogue analysis – an alternative approach?<br />Possible lessons<br />What crops are grown?<br />How have farmers adapted to local climate?<br />What social safeguards are in place?<br />What political measures are taken?<br />What is the carrying capacity?<br />
  16. 16. How to find analogues<br />Climatic distance<br />Monthly values<br />
  17. 17. How to find analogues<br />Climatic distance<br />
  18. 18. How to find analogues<br />Climatic distance<br />Monthly values<br />Normalization<br />Weights (depending on objective)<br />
  19. 19. How to find analogues<br />Climatic distance<br />X can be<br />Monthly mean temperatures and precipitation<br />More complicated climate variables (mean length of dry spells, etc.)<br />Agroclimatic indicators (e.g. growing degree days)<br />…<br />
  20. 20. The analogue tool (prototype)<br />Analogue tool<br />Programmed in R<br />
  21. 21. Data entry…<br />Excel tables and climate grids<br />
  22. 22. The tool<br />Gridded climate data for many scenarios<br />Polygon vector<br />Extract regional dataset, change resolution,<br />make scenario list<br />Site position (or name)<br />For each scenario<br />Extract projection data from regional (or global) dataset<br />Summarize scenario outputs<br />Evaluate analogue locations<br />Calculate climate distance to each point in baseline<br />Produce outputs for scenario<br />
  23. 23. Outputs<br />as .html page<br />
  24. 24. Analogue list<br />
  25. 25. Correspondence plot<br />
  26. 26. Correspondence plot<br />Mean daily precipitation<br />Mean daily maximum temperature<br />Mean daily minimum temperature<br />
  27. 27. Climatic distance map<br />
  28. 28. Climatic distance map<br />
  29. 29. Analogue map<br />
  30. 30. Analogue map<br />
  31. 31. What else happens there? – Google Earth<br />
  32. 32. What else happens there? – Google Earth images<br />A<br />B<br />
  33. 33. Analogue pathways<br />
  34. 34. What else happens there? Raster evaluation<br />Aridity index (Precipitation / PET)<br />Distributions over 50 closest analogues per scenario<br />Any gridded dataset can be sampled<br />
  35. 35. What else happens there? Raster evaluation<br />Potential yield of rainfed maize (low intensity)<br />Distributions over 50 closest analogues per scenario<br />Measure of vulnerability to climate change?<br />Data from IIASA, 2009<br />
  36. 36. Agroforestry and climate change<br />Agroforestry may reduce farmers’ vulnerability to climate change<br />But tree-based systems may also be vulnerable to climate change, because trees must be supported…<br />every year...<br />for decades…<br />Climate analogues can help find out if trees are likely to survive<br />
  37. 37. Suitability of Sahelian locations for parklands<br />Approach<br />Known parkland locations<br />Climatic data layers<br />Ecological niche modeling – Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt)<br />Requires occurrence input (species, ecosystems)<br />Characterizes environment based on GIS layers (climate)<br />Calculates suitability score for all locations within study extent<br />Phillips et al. 2006. Ecological Modelling 190, 231–259<br />
  38. 38. Suitability of Sahelian locations for parklands<br />Approach<br />Known parkland locations<br />Climatic data layers<br />MaxEnt suitability<br />
  39. 39. Suitability of Sahelian locations for parklands<br />Approach<br />Known parkland locations<br />Climatic data layers<br />Input for Climate Analogue Analysis<br />MaxEnt suitability<br />
  40. 40. Suitability of Sahelian locations for parklands<br />Climate Analogue Analysis<br />Old Peanut Basin<br />Zinder<br />Ségou<br />
  41. 41. Suitability of Sahelian locations for parklands<br />Climate Analogue Analysis<br />Old Peanut Basin<br />
  42. 42. Suitability of Sahelian locations for parklands<br />Climate Analogue Analysis<br />Old Peanut Basin<br />
  43. 43. Suitability of Sahelian locations for parklands<br />Climate Analogue Analysis<br />Old Peanut Basin<br />MaxEnt suitability score for parkland<br />
  44. 44. Suitability of Sahelian locations for parklands<br />Climate Analogue Analysis<br />Ségou<br />
  45. 45. Suitability of Sahelian locations for parklands<br />Climate Analogue Analysis<br />Ségou<br />
  46. 46. Suitability of Sahelian locations for parklands<br />Climate Analogue Analysis<br />Ségou<br />Ségou<br />MaxEnt suitability score for parkland<br />
  47. 47. Suitability of Sahelian locations for parklands<br />Climate Analogue Analysis<br />Zinder<br />
  48. 48. Suitability of Sahelian locations for parklands<br />Climate Analogue Analysis<br />Zinder<br />
  49. 49. Suitability of Sahelian locations for parklands<br />Climate Analogue Analysis<br />Zinder<br />MaxEnt suitability score for parkland<br />
  50. 50. Next steps<br />Add non-climatic variables to analogue finding procedure<br />Test the usefulness of analogues in field surveys<br />Make the tool into a useable application (web-based)<br />
  51. 51. Thanks for your attention!<br />e.luedeling@cgiar.org<br />
  52. 52. Asante sana!<br />Asante sana!<br />Asante sana!<br />Asante sana!<br />Asante sana!<br />Asante sana!<br />Asante sana!<br />Asante sana!<br />Asante sana!<br />
  53. 53. Climate change impacts<br />Novel crop climates in Africa’s maize growing region<br />2025<br />2050<br />2075<br />Overlap between historic and simulated seasonal temperatures<br />0%<br />20%<br />40%<br />60%<br />80%<br />100%<br />Burke et al., 2009. Global Environmental Change 19, 317-325<br />

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