For Lobell map: Values show the linear trend in temperature for the main crop grown in that grid cell, and for the months in which that crop is grown. Values indicate the trend in terms of multiples of the standard deviation of historical year-to-year variation. ** A 1˚C rise tended to lower yields by up to 10% except in high latitude countries, where in particular rice gains from warming. ** In India, warming may explain the recently slowing of yield gains. For yield graph: Estimated net impact of climate trends for 1980-2008 on crop yields for major producers and for global production. Values are expressed as percent of average yield. Gray bars show median estimate and error bars show 5-95% confidence interval from bootstrap resampling with 500 replicates. Red and blue dots show median estimate of impact for T trend and P trend, respectively. ** At the global scale, maize and wheat exhibited negative impacts for several major producers and global net loss of 3.8% and 5.5% relative to what would have been achieved without the climate trends in 1980-2008. In absolute terms, these equal the annual production of maize in Mexico (23 MT) and wheat in France (33 MT), respectively. Source: Climate Trends and Global Crop Production Since 1980 David B. Lobell 1 , , Wolfram Schlenker 2 , 3 , and Justin Costa-Roberts 1 Science magazine
Why focus on Food security And climate change has to be set in the context of growing populations and changing diets 60-70% more food will be needed by 2050 because of population growth and changing diets – and this is in a context where climate change will make agriculture more difficult.
Carbon becomes a commodity, and a profitable one at that. Can smallholders get a piece of the action?
Challenge Program then CGIAR Research Program Theme Leaders spread across CG system and the global change community in advanced research institutes New way of working – deliberately networked
Brought together all the main players setting up community carbon projects in West and East Africa Identified research needs – institutional models, how they might work best for efficiency, equity
Wide set of CG and ESSP partners writing book chapters for Earthscan; covering the range of ag sectors including livestock and fisheries Similarly full range of lessons from REDD+: technical options, “measurement, reporting and verification” (MRV), finance, institutions, incentives -Using modeling, remote sensing data and data on farmers' management practices, Winrock International and Applied GeoSolutions are estimating current agricultural emissions and generating scenarios of different mitigation strategies consistent with maintaining food supply.
Massive exercise – training of survey teams and partners, multi-lingual survey instrument, large number of households in remote sites Site selection based on multiple criteria to represent a range of exposure (e.g. predicted changes in rainfall), sensitivity (e.g. livelihood dependence on threatened crops) and capacity to respond (e.g. how well connected by roads) in each region Graph from all households in three regions in baseline survey shows lower access among female-headed households to modern communications, especially phones Relevant to many proposed interventions e.g. weather forecasts by cellphone Baseline has multiple purposes: action research sites particularly for the adaptation themes 1 & 2 (these sites will be matched with analogue sites), better understanding of local and regional differences to guide best-bet technologies and practices to trial in different localities; also as formal baseline for future program assessment.
Culmination of perhaps a decade of work but has come out under CCAFS led by Phil Thornton Will generate series/runs of simulated future climate data (daily temperature and rainfall) for any coordinates on the planet These data crucial for e.g. estimating future crop suitability/yields/failures Also have made available set of downscaled climate data sets – strong demand from developing countries and over 200 downloads
This is real nice, but here is a challenge: does this cover 4.1 and 4.3 – I think not; why not have a first slide that shows 4.1, 4.2 and 4.3; and then this one for 4.2?
In a sense all CCAFS work is geared towards enhancing capacity to anticipate and manage different and uncertain climatic futures Capacity enhancement integrated into all themes CCAFS’s comparative advantage is in policy-oriented research So gearing capacity enhancement activities in this area
Second objective of CCAFS is to get climate change onto agricultural policy and planning, and vice versa Plus linking into food security and development agendas, such as the Millennium Goals, Rio+20, G20 Much work at regional and national levels Two global examples are Commission and ARDD ARDD 2010 very successful in terms of media outreach – 40 journalists, 10 media stories around the world Two degree photo essays also successful – blogged, redistributed, widely watched on youtube
Centrepiece of CCAFS work program- done the participatory identification and analysis of problems now time to work on generating and scaling up solutions Trials and farmer cross-site visits will start in 2011 Have already started on carbon markets, now want to do more on, e.g., climate information services, risk insurance, technologies for risk management, crop, livestock and fish varieties (via other CRPs) Need farmer cross-site visits so farmers, so farmers understand the changes that may occur and are empowered to build adaptation strategies
Policy engagement – dare we predict that agriculture will get on the UNFCCC agenda in 2011 – need to engage negotiators and key African agencies (fyi – already done with SACAU, FANRPAN); massive communications outreach needed SACAU Southern African Confederation of Agricultural Unions FANRPAN Food, Agriculture and Natural Resources Policy Analysis Network Communications – strategic set of high-level targets and products (e.g. ARDD, Hague, Commission) Major support beneath this in terms of robust data sets, models, tools that CCAFS is putting out
Future uncertain Many ordinary people distrustful of climate science Therefore major part of communications effort is to provide space for local voices Link this with science (AMKN)
CCAFS Climate Change Agriculture and Food Security
<ul><li>Identify and develop pro-poor adaptation and mitigation practices, technologies and policies for agriculture and food systems. </li></ul><ul><li>Support the inclusion of agricultural issues in climate change policies , and of climate issues in agricultural policies , at all levels. </li></ul>CCAFS objectives
The CCAFS Framework Adapting Agriculture to Climate Variability and Change <ul><li>Technologies, practices, partnerships and policies for: </li></ul><ul><li>Adaptation to Progressive Climate Change </li></ul><ul><li>Adaptation through Managing Climate Risk </li></ul><ul><li>Pro-poor Climate Change Mitigation </li></ul>Improved Environmental Health Improved Rural Livelihoods Improved Food Security Enhanced adaptive capacity in agricultural, natural resource management, and food systems Trade-offs and Synergies <ul><li>4. Integration for Decision Making </li></ul><ul><li>Linking Knowledge with Action </li></ul><ul><li>Assembling Data and Tools for Analysis and Planning </li></ul><ul><li>Refining Frameworks for Policy Analysis </li></ul>
Where is the research being done? >> At our 15 CG centers and ~70 regional offices The CGIAR Research Centers Lead center - CIAT
Place-based field work Indo- Gangetic Plains : There is risk of heat stress, melting glaciers, and sea level rise; the intensity and probability of extreme events will likely increase. Regional director: Pramod Aggarwal East Africa : Climate change will likely intensify surface and groundwater stress. Regional director: James Kinyangi West Africa : Extreme rainfall variability impedes precipitation predictions, but the Sahel will likely experience shorter growing periods. Regional director: Robert Zougmor é
Progressive Adaptation <ul><li>THE VISION </li></ul><ul><li>To adapt farming systems, we need to: </li></ul><ul><li>Close the production gap by effectively using current technologies, practices and policies </li></ul><ul><li>Increase the bar : develop new ways to increase food production potential </li></ul><ul><li>Enable policies and institutions, from the farm to national level </li></ul>
Objective One: Adapted farming systems via integrated technologies, practices, and policies Objective Two: Breeding strategies to address abiotic and biotic stresses induced by future climates Objective Three: Identification, conservation, and deployment of species and genetic diversity Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1
Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1 <ul><li>1.1 </li></ul><ul><li>Holistic testing of farming options (benchmark sites) </li></ul><ul><li>Agricultural knowledge transfer </li></ul><ul><li>Analysis of enabling policies and instit. mechanisms </li></ul>Adapted farming systems <ul><li>1.2 </li></ul><ul><li>Climate-proofed global and national breeding strategies </li></ul><ul><li>Regional fora to discuss and set priorities </li></ul>Breeding strategies for climate stresses <ul><li>1.3 </li></ul><ul><li>Knowledge for better use of germplasm for adaptation </li></ul><ul><li>On-farm use of diversity to adapt </li></ul><ul><li>Policies of access for benefit sharing </li></ul>Species and genetic diversity
Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1 >> Spotlight on: Two Degrees Up Short climate change photofilms highlighting the impact of a two degree rise in temperature on smallholder agriculture What CCAFS output?
Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1 >> Spotlight on: The AMKN Platform It links farmers’ realities on the ground with promising scientific research outputs, to inspire new ideas and highlight current challenge. Why is it useful? The Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Knowledge Network platform is a portal for accessing and sharing agricultural A&M knowledge. What CCAFS output?
Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1 >> Spotlight on: Farms of the future The climate analogue tool identifies the range of places whose current climates correspond to the future of a chosen locality What CCAFS output? Choice of sites for cross-site farmer visits and participatory crop and livestock trials Why is it useful?
Karnal (India) <ul><li>Rainy season from June to September </li></ul>
Farmer exchanges for adaptation knowledge management
TPE analysis Future systems Knowledge & intuition Ideotype concept Gene/allelediscovery Intelligent phenotyping designs Marker developmt. Modeling Marker validation, Integration, G x E x M Molecular breeding Intelligent choice of populations Creative thinking & wild bets Forcing by target environment CHANGE Con-ventional breeding Application Methodology Search Function, regulation, phénotype Strategic choices Diversity Panels Biparental Pops CCAFS (CRP7) activity 1.2: Breeding strategies & ideotypes for 2030 horizon
>> Multi-site agricultural trial database(agtrial.org) 20,000+ maize trials in 123 research sites Effect of +1ºC warming on yield Sites with >23ºC would suffer even if optimally managed More than 20% loss in sites with >20ºC, under drought Lobell et al. 2011
<ul><li>Over 3,000 trials </li></ul><ul><li>16 crops </li></ul><ul><li>20 countries </li></ul><ul><li>> 15 international and national institutions </li></ul>New data >> Multi-site agricultural trial database(agtrial.org)
Risk Management <ul><li>THE VISION </li></ul><ul><li>Climate-related risk impedes development , leading to chronic poverty and dependency </li></ul><ul><li>Actions taken now can reduce vulnerability in the short term and enhance resilience in the long term </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Improving current climate risk management will reduce obstacles to making future structural adaptations . </li></ul></ul>
Objective One: Building resilient livelihoods ( Farm level ) Objective Two: Food delivery, trade, and crisis response ( Food system level ) Objective Three: Enhanced climate information and services Managing Climate Risk · 2
Managing Climate Risk · 2 <ul><li>2.1 </li></ul><ul><li>Designed diversification </li></ul><ul><li>Index-based risk transfer </li></ul><ul><li>Anticipatory mgmt, aided by forecasts and communications </li></ul><ul><li>Participatory action research </li></ul>Building resilient livelihoods <ul><li>2.2 </li></ul><ul><li>Manage price volatility via trade and storage </li></ul><ul><li>Improved early warning systems </li></ul><ul><li>Coordin. platform </li></ul><ul><li>Food safety nets </li></ul><ul><li>Post-crisis recovery </li></ul>Food delivery, trade, and crisis response <ul><li>2.3 </li></ul><ul><li>info. </li></ul><ul><li>Historical data reconstruction </li></ul><ul><li>Downscaled, tailored seasonal forecast predictions </li></ul><ul><li>Monitor and forecast crops, rangelands, pests & diseases </li></ul><ul><li>services </li></ul><ul><li>Institutional arrangements </li></ul><ul><li>Communication processes </li></ul><ul><li>Capacity bldg for providers </li></ul>Climate information and services
Managing climate risk · 2 >> Spotlight on: Indexed crop insurance In indexed insurance schemes, payouts are based on a meteorological index (e.g., rainfall) correlated with agricultural losses, rather than on observed losses. <ul><li>Knowledge and tools for targeting, implementing, and evaluating index insurance </li></ul><ul><li>Using crop yield predictions to develop robust indices with low basis risk </li></ul>What CCAFS outputs? Basing payouts on an objectively-measured index avoids the high cost of verifying losses and overcomes the problems of moral hazard, adverse selection and. Farmers’ assets are protected from climate shocks. Why is it useful?
Managing climate risk · 2 >> Spotlight on: Reconstructing climate data Google tool for Ethiopia scaled up across Africa Filling gaps in meteorological records in partnership with local met services and WMO What CCAFS outputs? Crucial for calculating index insurance, forecasting production for food crisis and trade management etc Why is it useful?
Pro-poor Mitigation VISION Short-term : Identifying options feasible for smallholder mitigation and trade-offs with other outcomes Long-term : Addressing conflict between achieving food security and agricultural mitigation
Objective One: Identify low-carbon agricultural development pathways Objective Two: Develop incentives and institutional arrangements Objective Three : Develop on-farm technological options for mitigation and research landscape implications Pro-poor climate change mitigation · 3
Pro-poor climate change mitigation · 3 <ul><li>3.1 </li></ul><ul><li>Evaluate lowest carbon footprints for: food production, adaptation, energy production, sustainable intensification, poverty alleviation </li></ul><ul><li>Assess impacts of current policies </li></ul><ul><li>Develop coherent vision to guide agric dvlpt </li></ul>Low-carbon development pathways <ul><li>3.2 </li></ul><ul><li>Test feasibility of carbon market for smallholders, focusing on best bets (SE Asia, Latin Amer) </li></ul><ul><li>Assess potential non-market options </li></ul><ul><li>Assess impacts on marginalized groups and women </li></ul>Incentives and instit. arrangements <ul><li>3.3 </li></ul><ul><li>Test technological feasibility of smallholder mitigation on farms </li></ul><ul><li>Dvlpt cost-effective, simple, integrated MRV. </li></ul><ul><li>Assess impacts of all GHGs through their lifecycles. </li></ul>On-farm mitigation options
Cross-project learning on best-bet institutional models across East and West Africa What CCAFS outputs? <ul><li>Direct link between research and action </li></ul><ul><li>Strong demand from carbon project managers </li></ul>Why is it useful? Pro-poor climate change mitigation · 3 >> Spotlight on: Carbon project action research
Pro-poor climate change mitigation · 3 >> Spotlight on: Quantifying agricultural emissions Two workshops, hosted together with FAO and Duke University, will provide an overview and synthesis of how to quantify emissions for smallholder systems, especially for farm- and landscape level-impacts. What CCAFS outputs? Determining the mitigation potential of agricultural practices at country and site levels will facilitate interventions on the ground. Why is it useful?
Integration <ul><li>VISION </li></ul><ul><li>Provide an analytical and diagnostic framework , grounded in the policy context </li></ul><ul><li>Synthesize lessons learned </li></ul><ul><li>Effectively engage with rural stakeholders and decision makers </li></ul><ul><li>Communicate likely effects of specific policies and interventions </li></ul><ul><li>Build partners’ capacity </li></ul>
Rural Livelihoods Environment Food Security Integration for Decision Making T2 : Risk Management T3 : Pro-poor Mitigation
Objective One: Linking knowledge with action Objective Two: Data and tools for analysis and planning Objective Three: Refining frameworks for policy analysis Integration for Decision Making · 4
Integration for Decision Making · 4 <ul><li>4.1 </li></ul><ul><li>Regional scenarios </li></ul><ul><li>Vulnerability assessments </li></ul><ul><li>Approaches to decision making informed by good science </li></ul><ul><li>Approaches to benefit vulnerable, disadvantaged groups </li></ul>Linking knowledge with action <ul><li>4.2 </li></ul><ul><li>Integrated assessment framework, toolkits, and databases to assess CC impacts </li></ul><ul><li>Baselines, data generation & collation, scoping studies, and tool development </li></ul><ul><li>Socially-differentiated decision aids and info for different stakeholders </li></ul>Data and tools for analysis and planning <ul><li>4.3 </li></ul><ul><li>Assess CC impacts at global & regional levels on: producers, consumers, natural resources, and international transactions </li></ul><ul><li>Analyze likely effects of scientific adap. and mitig. options, national policies </li></ul><ul><li>Analyze differential impacts of options on different social groups </li></ul>Frameworks for policy analysis
Baseline survey conducted in 36 sites, 252 villages, with 5,040 households What CCAFS outputs? <ul><li>Sites for participatory action research </li></ul><ul><li>Guidance for research foci </li></ul><ul><li>Basis for formal evaluation of program impacts </li></ul>Why is it useful? Integration for Decision Making · 4 >> Spotlight on: Household baseline survey
http://gismap.ciat.cgiar.org/MarkSimGCM/ >> Spotlight on: Integration for Decision Making · 4 A tool to generate daily data that are characteristic of future climatologies for any point on the globe What CCAFS outputs? To drive agricultural impact models for climate change studies Why is it useful?
Select climate model (6 options or their avg) Select emissions scenario (3 options) Select the centre year of the time slice Select location Select the number of years of data desired Integration for Decision Making · 4 MarkSim ™
Global scenarios … … regional scenarios … (demand, land use, global prices, etc) Inputs Ecosystem services (regional prices, regional demand, policy & market environment, etc) Checks for coherence, consistency, viability <ul><li>Evaluating options: </li></ul><ul><li>Incomes </li></ul><ul><li>Food security </li></ul><ul><li>Livelihoods </li></ul><ul><li>Trade-offs </li></ul>… household assessment … providing context and inputs to … … providing context and inputs to … Checks for coherence, consistency, viability Aggregation Disaggregation
Building a user-driven agenda <ul><li>From large-scale stakeholder consultations </li></ul><ul><li>e.g. GCARD, regional meetings </li></ul><ul><li>Specific exercises with selected groups </li></ul><ul><li>e.g. Venice meeting, regional scenarios, farmer testimonials </li></ul>From local to regional to global
Mainstream outputs and outcomes For research partners to generate useful data, tools, and results. CLIFF, meteorological services, climate and agricultural research institutes, the Climate Food and Farming PhD student network For policy partners to demand and use data, tools, and results Governments, civil society, development organizations, farmers’ organizations, private sector e.g. User-driven regional scenarios
People or organizations increasing their own ability to achieve their objectives effectively and efficiently. A Definition <ul><li>Adaptation requires embedded local capacity, not external solutions </li></ul><ul><li>CCAFS aims to enhance both (a) research capacities and (b) capacities to link knowledge and action </li></ul>The CCAFS Vision Capacity enhancement
<ul><li>Social groups differ in (a) vulnerability to climate change and (b) abilities to respond </li></ul><ul><li>30% of CCAFS research budget will address gender & social differentiation </li></ul><ul><li>Early work in gender studies, opportunities for women scientists </li></ul>Social differentiation
Join up climate, ag & food policy <ul><li>Based on robust science, what policy changes need to happen and what are the levers? </li></ul><ul><li>13 Commissioners, 10 months </li></ul>The Commission on Sustainable Agriculture and Climate Change <ul><li>Putting agriculture and food security on the climate map </li></ul><ul><li>Global partners, major reach </li></ul>Agriculture and Rural Development Day (ARDD)
CCAFS is an active partner in the annual ARDD side event at the annual UNFCCC Conference of Parties negotiations. Agriculture and Rural Development Day (ARDD) Global policy impact The Commission will identify what policy changes and actions are needed now to help the world achieve sustainable agriculture that contributes to food security and poverty reduction, and helps respond to climate change adaptation and mitigation goals. The Commission on Sustainable Agriculture and Climate Change
Participatory action research <ul><li>Participatory trials of practices, tools & technologies </li></ul><ul><li>Cross-site learning visits to empower farmers to build adaptation strategies </li></ul>
Communications & engagement on multiple fronts , with regional partners and farmers’ voices Hope for agriculture in the UNFCCC? Hague process, Commission, ARDD, Meridian, SACAU & FANRPAN Need to bring African policy-makers on board Communications & policy outreach
Verbal, photo and video testimonials <ul><li>Link local & scientific knowledge </li></ul><ul><li>Communicate uncertainty </li></ul>Amplifying rural voices
<ul><li>Centers fully aligned with CCAFS, and contributing to multi-center, multi-partner programs of work. </li></ul><ul><li>Budget assigned strategically. </li></ul>2012 and beyond CCAFS Start-Up <ul><li>Centers begin to adjust their CRP7 funded research agendas towards the broader CCAFS strategy, with support from CCAFS-led activities and through CCAFS established partnerships. </li></ul><ul><li>Low-hanging fruit inter-centre collaborations. </li></ul>2011 as a transition year
CCAFS Budget Subtotal Executed by Centers 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Total Theme 1 Adaptation to progressive climate change 16.9 18.0 18.5 19.5 20.4 93.3 Theme 2 Adaptation through managing climate risk 5.3 6.0 7.0 7.4 7.7 33.4 Theme 3 Pro-poor climate change mitigation 7.9 8.6 9.5 10.0 10.5 46.4 Theme 4 Integration for decision making 9.7 10.2 11.2 11.7 12.3 55.1 CRP7, Theme and regional coordination 1.1 1.3 1.8 1.9 2.0 8.1 Subtotal 40.9 44.1 48.0 50.4 53.0 236.4 37% 14% 19% 27% 3% Theme 1: Adaptation to progressive climate change Theme 2: Adaptation through managing climate risk Theme 3: Pro- - poor climate change mitigation Theme 4: Integration for decision making CRP7: Theme and regional coordination
ILRI Activity Plan part 1 Theme 1, Adaptation to Progressive Climate Change Activity in 2011 Outputs in 2011 Partners 1.1 Adapted Farming systems to changing climate conditions Data assembly (including systems and the analytical framework), analysis and synthesis Documentation of future vulnerability of livestock systems globally to target interventions INRA-led consortium of 27 partners 1.2 Breeding strategies for future climatic conditions 1.3 Species and genetic diversity for climate change Theme 2, Adaptation Pathways for Current Climate Risk Activity in 2011 Outputs in 2011 Partners 2.1 Managing climate risk and building resilient livelihoods Workshops, syntheses, report writing Documentation of how agro-pastoralists are coping with climate risk in West and Southern Africa, and piloting options as to how they may cope with increased climate risk in the future PIK, University of Kassel, IER (Mali), IIAM (Mozambique), IFPRI 2.2 Managing climate risk through food delivery, trade and crisis response 2.3 Prediction of climate impacts, and enhanced climate services
ILRI Activity Plan part 2 Theme 3, Pro-Poor Climate Change Mitigation Activity in 2011 Outputs in 2011 Partners 3.1. Low-carbon agricultural development pathways Consultations, workshop, analysis, syntheses Greenhouse gas emissions from livestock systems by country: updating the IPCC numbers IIASA, FAO 3.2 Institutional arrangements and incentives for mitigation 3.3 On-farm mitigation practices and landscape implications Workshop, syntheses Scoping study on carbon sequestration in livestock systems in developing countries Under development Theme 4, Integration for Decision Making Activity in 2011 Outputs in 2011 Partners 4.1 Linking knowledge with action 4.2 Data and tools for analysis and planning Model development, testing and documentation Documentation for GLOBIOM-Livestock, a global integrated assessment model with explicit treatment of livestock issues 4.3 Refining frameworks for policy analysis Writeshops, syntheses Global review of livestock issues in global change IFPRI, IIASA, PIK, FAO, PBL
Director: Bruce Campbell Head of Research : Sonja Vermeulen Head of Program Coordination and Communications: Torben Timmermann Program Manager : Misha Wolsgaard-Iversen Events & Program Support Consultant: Ratih Septivita Communications Consultant : Vanessa Meadu CCAFS Director and Heads Program & Comm. Support The CCAFS Team: Who’s coordinating the effort?
T1: Adaptation to Progressive CC Theme Leaders: Andy Jarvis & Andy Challinor Science Officer: Osana Bonilla-Findji T2: Adaptation through Managing Climate Risk Theme Leader: Jim Hansen Science Officer: Kevin Coffey T3: Pro-Poor Climate Change Mitigation Theme Leader: Lini Wollenberg Science Officer: Michael Misiko T4: Integration for Decision Making Theme Leaders: Phil Thornton, Gerry Nelson, Patti Kristjanson Science Officers: Wiebke Chaudhury, Christina Sison, Moushumi Chaudhury The CCAFS Team: Who’s leading the effort?
<ul><li>Plug into centre communications and co-brand outputs </li></ul><ul><li>Create a platform for fund-raising to support centres </li></ul>Co-branding of CC work How we would like to work <ul><li>Connect people </li></ul><ul><li>Reduce redundancy </li></ul><ul><li>Maximise creative potential </li></ul><ul><li>Elevate the level of CGIAR research and its outreach </li></ul>Integrating across the CGIAR
<ul><li>Use research products coming out of other centers </li></ul><ul><li>Develop multi-center programs of work which are embedded in CCAFS strategy </li></ul><ul><li>Develop ownership and feel a part of the program AND your centre </li></ul>Collaborate and contribute What Should You Do? <ul><li>Learn about the program on the web and through presentations </li></ul><ul><li>Engage with theme leaders and center contact points on your research </li></ul>Learn and engage
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