Applying Advanced Spatial Tools forLandscape Analysis and Climate Change Adaptation in Asian Highlands: Yunnan Case Jianchu Xu Presented at ICRAF, Nairobi, 5th March, 2012 With Support fromRobert Zomer, Antonio Trabucoo, Huafang Chen, Rong Lang, Haiying Yu, Wen Sha, Xueqing Yang, Xing Ma, Xuefei Yang World Agroforestry Centre, East Asia Node Centre for Mountain Ecosystem Studies
Outline of Presentation The Region Global change Evidence of impacts Yunnan Case
Global Importance of BiodiversityOne of four richest vascular plant regionsThe richest Gymnosperms in the worldTwo global biodiversity hotspots:Southwest China, Indo-Burma Biodiversity Hotspots SW China Indo-Burma
Geodiversity drivesspecies diversityHabitat diversity isdriven by gravity Small scale differences in • Temperature • Water • Nutrients • Substrate
Indigenous groups alongMekong Region Transect Complex social/ethnic groups withDiverse landscapes dynamic& ecosystems: livelihoods:• High Plateau • Tibetan nomads• Alpine• Subtropical • Agro-pastalist• Tropical • Upland farmers• Aquatic/wetland • Shifting cultivators • Paddy farmers • Fishery
Warming Faster than Global Average in high altitude (Adapted from Liu and Chen 2000, and AB Shrestha 1999)
Projected precipitation changes by 2100At least 10% At least 10%reduction increase 23/41
Haydley Circulation and Droughts in Southwest ChinaHadleyCirculation Fu et al, 2006, Science; Seidel, Fu et al, 2008, Nature Geoscience
What impact of climate change on alpine ecosystem? Delaying phenology in Tibetan Plateau phenology ClearBeginning of the delays ingrowing season recent (BGS) in years meadow and steppe vegetation Remotely sensed (GIMMS dataset 1982- 2006) Yu, Luedeling and Xu, 2010. PNAS 107, 22151-22156
Habitat loss following climatic change (doubling of atmospheric CO2 ) 26/41
Landscape and Livelihood Linkage Hydrological Landscape cycle Cryosphere Slope stability Biosphere Tourism Hydropower Mountain 27/41Livelihood Safety of people agriculture
Diverse and attractive ethnic culture About one third or more of 41 million residents in Yunnan are ethnic peoples of 25 minorities
Applying the GEnS – Global Stratification for Assessing Regional Climate Change Impacts on Terrestrial EcosystemsA globally consistent bio-climatic stratification based upon statisticalquantitative approach using spatially distributed climate data (WorldClim)developed within the framework of the GeoBON (GEOSS BiodiversityObservation Network) (Metzger et al. 2010)Allows for comparative analysis across regions and statistically-basedprediction of future change based upon changing climatic conditions
GEnS – Bioclimate Map Metzger, M.J., Bunce, R.G.H., Jongman, R.H.G., Sayre, R., Trabucco, A., Zomer, R. (2012) A high resolution bioclimate map of the world: a unifying framework for global biodiversity research. Global Ecology and Biogeography. In Press.
Yunnan Province - Projected Climate Change Hadley GCM – Scenario A2 Precipitation (mm) Generally Wetter Average Annual Precipitation increases by 9.7 percent from 1137 mm/yr to 1260 mm/yr Temperature (°C) Generally Hotter Average Annual Temperature increases by 12 percent from 15.5°C to 17.5°C Aridity Index ( > is more humid) Non-Uniform Impacts Changes in growing conditions are spatially differentiated across the region
Yunnan Province – Environmental Stratification And Predicted Change
Can species run faster enough to cope withclimate change? (e.g.: 500m elevation change) Chinese flyer man Kenya Marathon runner
Benchmark Site: Xishuangbanna(Total area: 19,200km2, Xishuangbanna National Nature Reserve)
XishuangbannaLanduse Change 2002 -2010 Expansion of Forest Expansion of Rubber Loss of swidden-fallow succession Loss of Agricultural Land
XishuangbannaLanduse Change Dynamics and Tree Cover Using MODIS VCF For Regional Validation of “Global Trees on Farm” Methodology Tree Cover Analysis Consistent with Landuse Change Analysis 2000-2005
Xishuangbanna Prefecture China’s Biodiversity TreasureA vast number of plant and animal species. Biodiversityplays an important role in economy, society, culture,religion. More than 200 species are in rare, endangeredand near endangered status.Expansion of rubber production is a major threat, whichincreases with climate change. However, conditions inexisting protected areas will change drastically by 2050.
Global habitat suitability for rubbercalculated from the 110 records from GBIF Rubber is already planted in most areas that we identify as suitable MaxEnt; training AUC=0.99; test AUC 0.97 (+/-0.007 SD)
Predicting Impact of Climate Change on Biodiversity &Ecosystem services: Baoshan Ecological Forest Monitoring Changing climatic conditions will impact existing forests, and associated biodiversity Protected areas may no longer protect intended habitats Temperate Forests and Higher Altitude Communities Likely at Risk Expansion of Tropical Forest Zones
Gaoligongshan National Nature Reserve Baoshan PrefectureA Biodiversity Hotspot / UNESCO Biosphere ReserveApprox. 405,500 ha. of highly diverse montane forestwith a extraordinary mix of diverse flora and fauna.The highest areas have been designated as an strictconservation, with no visitors allowed. Climaticconditions in these higher elevation habitats aredrastically altered by 2050.
Incorporating adaptation scenarios to predictspatial species distribution of alpine plants 1. Does alpine plants shift upward under warming temperature in SW China? 2. If yes, what is the rate of range shift to No adaptation, Local adaptation Adaptation corresponding climate local extinction by physio- through range morphological shift change? change, or even speciation 3. If not, what are the adaptation strategies? Adaptation scenarios Focal plants: Rhododendron spp.
Two ways to design linkages for climate change The “old” (2005) New way: way: linked dynamic corridors for diverse models land facets P. BEIER & B. BROST, 2010 Climate envelope models Facet: One of the flat… perform no polished surfaces cut on abetter than chance gemstone(Beale et al. 2008.PNAS 104:14908
Land facet: a landscape polygon ofrelatively uniform topography and soil Wessels et al. 1999. Biological Conservation
Land facets as drivers of biodiversity Soil type Insolation Topographic position ElevationPlants &animals are(and will be) Climatea function of: ?The state-factor model of ecosystems.Hans Jenny (1941); Amundson & Jenny (1997)
These variables define land facets. Land facets will interact with future climate to support new assemblages of plants and animals. Distribution of plants & animals
“Conservethe arenas of biologicalactivity rather than thetemporary occupants of those arenas.” (Hunter et al. 1988)
The approach should identify a continuous strand of each land facet, and a strand with high diversity of facets. These will help plants & animals shift their ranges as climate changeP. BEIER & B. BROST, 2010Conservation Biology
Examples of land facets• mid-elevation, steepridges with rocky soils• low-elevation, high-insolation (sunny) flatareas with thick soilsIf good soil maps arelacking, facets can bedefined solely ontopographic variables. Conserving the arenas, not the actors: land facets as biodiversity surrogates in planning for climate change P. BEIER & B. BROST, 2010, Conservation Biology
Join All Corridors Add a riparian corridor if neededFacet A CorridorFacet B CorridorFacet C CorridorCorridor withinterspersed facetsMany soil maps arenot useful.If needed, usepresence of water orriparian plants to mapa “moist soil facet” P. BEIER & B. BROST, 2010, Conservation Biology
Advantages of using land facets to define corridors• Useful where no vegetation maps exist.• No bias to include “data-rich” areas in the design.• Not subject to error propagation from linked, highly uncertain models.• Not subject to error compounding from projecting 50-100 years into the future. P. BEIER & B. BROST, 2010, Conservation Biology
Yunnan Province, ChinaAnnual Net Primary Productivity (NPP) Annual net primary productivity (NPP) averaged over a period from 2000 to 2006, based on MOD17 – MODIS Global Terrestrial Net Primary Production estimates derived from satellite remote sensing data at a resolution of 250m2 (Running et al., 2005). Projected NPP in 2050 is calculated based on increase (or decrease) of zonal areas.
Results Can expect significant climatic change Can expect significant impact on ecosystem and species / productivity Can expect species and ecosystems shift Hotspots of change/ change-ecotones identified High risk ecotypes identifiedImplications for Environmental Monitoring Need to consider the impact of climate change on monitoring and conservation design Target climate vulnerable ecotypes and species Landscape approach for climate change adaptation