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V Agrawal A Sarmad Stoc Expo Presentation Updated2

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Crude Oil or Refined Product Export Facility Simulation Modeling

Crude Oil or Refined Product Export Facility Simulation Modeling

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  • 1. Simulation Modeling of a Crude Oil or Refined Products Export Facility Abbas Sarmad, P.E. Principal Marine Engineer – Vice President AECOM Transportation Vijay Agrawal 1 Senior Port Analyst & Planner AECOM Transportation
  • 2. Author’s Perspective • Consulting Civil Engineers / Planners / Programmers • Trained in Design, Fabrication and Construction of waterfront and Offshore Structures • Reliance on Self Engineering Expertise and Client Taught Terminal Operation • Use of Simulation Modeling as a “Tool” to Achieve Optimized Solutions for two decades 2 STOC EXPO MIDDLE EAST 2009
  • 3. AECOM Clients Port Authorities • Shipping Lines • Terminal Operators • Industry Consortia • Private Developers • Government Agencies • Multilateral Agencies • 3 STOC EXPO MIDDLE EAST 2009
  • 4. AECOM Experience PROJECT TYPE How Many? Port Studies 400+ Container Terminals 100+ Major Multipurpose Ports and Harbors 100+ Marine Tanker Terminals 350+ Bulk Cargo Terminals 50+ Piers and Wharves 400+ Coastal Engineering Projects 250+ Offshore Platforms 300+ Storage and Tank Farm Facilities 50+ Cryogenic Cargo Terminals 25+ Shipyard Facilities 400+ Floating and Graving Docks 75+ Major River Ports 25+ River and Flood Control Programs 300+ Naval Bases and Stations 50+ 4 STOC EXPO MIDDLE EAST 2009
  • 5. Presentation Overview Simulation Modeling • Crude Oil/Refined Product Export Terminal • Storage Fluctuation and Berth Occupancy • Cost of Change • 5 STOC EXPO MIDDLE EAST 2009
  • 6. Simulation Modeling Simulation Modeling
  • 7. What is Simulation • Simulation is the art of creating mathematical representation of physical and logical “occurrences” in realistic time domains • Computer simulation is the art of making a computer generated representation look like the real world • For us, simulation is the art of creating a real time moving operating marine terminal 7 STOC EXPO MIDDLE EAST 2009
  • 8. Spreadsheets vs. Simulation • Spreadsheets Quick, simple, flexible – Limited randomness and sophistication – Unwieldy at large scale – Limited to known relationships & formulas – • Simulation Continuous or Discrete Event – Thorough treatment of randomness – Excellent for comparing alternatives – Animation of operations – Challenging to program – 8 STOC EXPO MIDDLE EAST 2009
  • 9. Why Simulate ? • Measure Implications of Change – Increased/decreased throughput – Changes in port or terminal facilities – Changes in capacity of hinterland connections • Consider Alternative Scenarios – Identify bottlenecks – Evaluate storage capacity – Cost analysis 9 STOC EXPO MIDDLE EAST 2009
  • 10. Key Physical and Logistics Inputs • Vessel Fleet Composition, Parcel Size Distribution, Arrival Patterns, etc. • Terminal Products, Storage Capacity, Infrastructure, etc. • Transportation Vessels, Barges, Trucks and Trains, Pipelines, etc. • Cost Parameters Infrastructure, Operations and Maintenance 10 STOC EXPO MIDDLE EAST 2009
  • 11. Model Output Behavior of key parameters in time as they vary discretely or continuously – Vessel waiting time and resulting demurrage – Storage fluctuation for different products – Berth occupancy factors – Equipment utilization factors 11 STOC EXPO MIDDLE EAST 2009
  • 12. Crude Oil/Refined Product Export Terminal Production coming in from Upstream Tankfarm Storage Supply to Export Facilities 12 STOC EXPO MIDDLE EAST 2009
  • 13. Change is Expensive 0.5 to 1 Million Barrels Capacity Tank $14 - 25 Million each New Conventional Wharf – Medium Size $70 Million each New SPM More than $25 Million each New pump, 10,000 to 15,000 MT/hour $12-20 Millions each More pipelines, Large Diameter Crude More than Submarine $7,000/meter 13 STOC EXPO MIDDLE EAST 2009
  • 14. Find Out “What Goes - to What Tank - to Go Where” 14 STOC EXPO MIDDLE EAST 2009
  • 15. Tankers Don’t Arrive on Time Tanker 1 NEW2 Tanker 2 NEW1 Tanker 3 Oceania Tanker 4 Ampac Tanker 5 XLT M Tu W Th F Sa Su Blue regions: Most likely time vessel is at berth Non Blue region: Small probability, but still possible times when a vessel is at berth 15 STOC EXPO MIDDLE EAST 2009
  • 16. Tanker Size Determines the Parcel Size 16 STOC EXPO MIDDLE EAST 2009
  • 17. Tanker Loading Takes Time Berth Suspension Takes Away Time • Tanker arrival and tie up • Hose connection • Custom Clearance & Quarantine • Start-up time • Pump Loading • Top-off time • Disconnects • Tanker leaves the area 17 STOC EXPO MIDDLE EAST 2009
  • 18. Simulation Model Scenario 1 Product 1 Facility Tank Farm 2 Tank Farm 3 Tank Farm 1 Refineries Refinery 1 Refinery 2 Refinery 3 Refinery 4 Berth 1 Berth 2 Product 1 Product 1 Alternate Flow SPM SPM 1 2 18 STOC EXPO MIDDLE EAST 2009
  • 19. Simulation Model Scenario 2 Product 2 Product 1 Facility Tank Farm 2 Tank Farm 3 Tank Farm 1 Refineries Refinery 1 Refinery 2 Refinery 3 Refinery 4 Berth 1 Berth 2 ,3 Product 1 Product 2 Being Product 1 Alternate Flow Overhauled SPM SPM SPM SPM 2 3 1 4 19 STOC EXPO MIDDLE EAST 2009
  • 20. Simulation Model Scenario 3 Product 3 Product 2 Product 1 Product 4 Product 5 Facility Tank Farm 2 Tank Farm 1 Tank Farm 3 Refineries Refinery 1 Refinery 2 Berth 2 Refinery 3 Refinery 4 Berth 1 ,3 Product 1 Product 2 Product 3 Product 4 SPM SPM SPM SPM Product 5 1 3 2 4 20 STOC EXPO MIDDLE EAST 2009
  • 21. Simulation Model Scenario 4 Product 2 Product 3 Product 4 Product 1 Product 5 Refineries TANK FARM 1 TANK FARM 2 Refinery 1 Refinery 2 Refinery 3 Refinery 4 Refineries Refinery 5 Refinery 6 Facility Berth 1 Berth 2 Product 1 Product 2 Product 3 Product 4 Product 5 SPM SPM SPM SPM SPM 5 1 2 3 4 21 STOC EXPO MIDDLE EAST 2009
  • 22. Crude Oil/Refined Product Export Terminal Simulation Model Animation Tank Farms SPM or Berth Selection Crude type, LRII vs. VLCCs % of VLCCs going to Piers % of VLCCs going to Piers that are partially loaded Select tank farm with highest inventory Select SPM with highest pump speed Non-Availability of Berth due to Bad weather or maintenance Occupancy by other tankers 22 STOC EXPO MIDDLE EAST 2009
  • 23. Simulation Results Storage Fluctuation and Berth Occupancy
  • 24. Dynamic Tracking of Tank Farm Inventory Storage/Production :13 Storage/Export :15 Storage/Production : 7 Storage/Export :- Storage/Production :15 Storage/Export :15 Storage/Production : 7 Storage/Export :11 24 STOC EXPO MIDDLE EAST 2009
  • 25. Total vs. Simulated Storage Requirement 25 STOC EXPO MIDDLE EAST 2009
  • 26. Buffer Ullage Available vs. Required 100% 1,200 90% 89% 1,000 80% 79% 70% 800 67% F req u en cy 60% 54% 600 50% 40% 400 30% 20% 200 10% 0 0% > 3-day buffer 3-day buffer 2-day buffer 1-day buffer Simulated Cap ullage ullage ullage ullage Bin Frequency Cumulative % 26 STOC EXPO MIDDLE EAST 2009
  • 27. Berth Occupancy vs. Vessel Waiting Times Berth Occupancy (%) Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 SPM 1 58 27 31 SPM 2 59 35 34 35 SPM 3 24 27 31 SPM 4 24 24 31 SPM 5 61 Berth 1 41 36 16 39 Berth 2 33 27 31 <1% Berth 3 5 17 7 Average wait time (days) 0.57 0.12 0.26 0.57 Average berth time (days) 1.49 1.17 1.02 1.05 Avg wait time / Avg berth time 0.37 0.11 0.25 0.51 Number of Tankers per year 467 475 633 814 27 STOC EXPO MIDDLE EAST 2009
  • 28. Annual Demurrage Cost vs. SPM Cost Number of Tankers Cumulative Frequency % 2,000 100% 1,800 90% 1,600 80% Number of Tankers Waiting Cumulative Frequency (%) 1,400 70% Carriage 1,200 60% Insurance Freight 1,000 50% (CIF) Tankers 800 40% Free On Board 600 30% (FOB) Tankers 400 20% 200 10% 0 0% more 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50 2.75 3.00 3.25 3.50 3.75 4.00 4.25 4.50 4.75 5.00 5.25 5.50 5.75 6.00 6.25 6.50 6.75 7.00 Tanker W aiting Time (Days) 28 STOC EXPO MIDDLE EAST 2009
  • 29. Capital Cost per Barrel of Additional Daily Production $2,000 Substations Demurrage Barrel of Additional Daily Production SPMs $1,600 Pumps+Metering US $ Capital Cost Per Pipelines Tankage $1,200 $800 $400 $0 100% 106% 106% 117% 133% 133% 133% 167% % Increase in Daily Production 29 STOC EXPO MIDDLE EAST 2009
  • 30. Application of Simulation Software for Crude Export/Refined Product Terminal • Evaluate the capacity of the existing system and bottlenecks • Determine the optimal storage, pipelines, and terminal facilities required to accommodate additional production capacity • Initiate required capital projects ahead of demand • Evaluate impact of crude segregation alternatives on future facility requirements • Establish the need for waterside export facilities expansion regarding tanker service level and demurrage cost 30 STOC EXPO MIDDLE EAST 2009