Post Storm Survey Results

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    Post Storm Survey Results - Presentation Transcript

    1. Survey Questions & Test Season Responses Matt Taraldsen Saint Cloud State University Meteorology-Communications Student Amanda Graning Forecaster/Meteorologist National Weather Service, WFO Duluth, MN MNgage
    2. Post Storm Survey (PSS) This survey was created by Matt Taraldsen, a meteorology student at Saint Cloud State University, under the guidance of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences professor Dr. Anthony Hansen, Communication Studies professor Suzanne Stangl-Erkens and meteorologists from the National Weather Service office in Duluth, Minnesota. poststormsurvey@gmail.com
    3. Post Storm Survey (PSS) Motivation “Need a process by which WFO [Weather Forecast Offices] can systematically gather local customer input and local research results … and turn that information into improved products and services” Ray Wolf – Science and Operations Officer (Science Operations Officer) NWS WFO Davenport, IA Goal Improve communication & effectiveness of winter weather information and threat by gaining insight into perceptions and decision making processes related to hazardous winter weather.
    4. The Post Storm Survey  Not a Critique of Forecast Accuracy  Rather, asks a few Specific Questions How did you received the winter storm information  How did you perceived the threat of the storm  What steps did you take to prepare for the storm  How did your plans changed due to the storm 
    5. Test Season March-April 2008  Only included winter storms that Affected Duluth, MN Forecast Area  Proposed for Winter Events Requiring a “Warning.”  Didn’t quite work that way…No Storms.  Winter finally arrive March & April 2008  Posted Survey for Three Winter Events • One case (March 18th) did not have a Warning but was still used in Test season data • All 3 Cases were in NE Minnesota (Duluth Area) Received over 500 responses Total 
    6. Post Storm Survey Test Season; March-April 2008  Data went into an interactive web based interface Analyzed by Matt Taraldsen, Amy Liles, Mike Bettwy, and  Amanda Graning  Presented Test Season Results: Partners and Faculty at SCSU  Northern Plains Winter Storm Conference, September 2008  Duluth NWS Local Media Workshop, November 2008   Made a few minor adjustments for 2008-2009 season
    7. Test Season Events March-April 2008 Wide Range of Winter Storms (All Affected NE Minnesota & NW Wisconsin) Blizzard, 2008 April 11th Snow Advisory, March 18 th Non-Warning Event Snowfall Amounts 2008 March 18th Winter Storm, 2008 April 6 th
    8. Survey Responses and Results Blizzard of April 11th 303 Respondents Winter Storm of April 6th 103 Respondents Snow Advisory of March 18th 100 Respondents ---------------------- 503 total respondents!
    9. The Post Storm Survey Questions
    10. PSS Questions what it looks like
    11. PSS Questions what it looks like
    12. All Responses Question: Where do you get your weather information on a regular basis? (Select all that apply) * Combined responses from all 3 events 35.0% 30.2% Biased toward NWS in test season. This 30.0% will be minimized in following seasons as more weather partners post a link to the 23.2% 25.0% PSS after a storm. 20.0% 13.1% 15.0% 9.2% 7.8% 10.0% 5.2% 4.8% 3.5% 2.2% 5.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% r n TV e o ge s V o ne ge pe tio nd on di di lT pa ho pa Ra pa e Ra va ph ie ca bl eb ll P Fr eb ws er le Ca Lo x W bs Te W W Ce Ne O er S AA NW th n w NO O O
    13. All Responses Question: During this storm, where did you get your weather information? (Select All that Apply) * Combined responses from all 3 events 35.0% 31.7% Biased toward NWS in test season. This 30.0% will be minimized in following seasons as more weather partners post a link to the 23.1% 25.0% PSS after a storm. 20.0% 15.0% 11.6% 9.9% 10.0% 6.3% 6.0% 4.6% 2.6% 2.5% 5.0% 1.1% 0.7% 0.0% r n TV e o ge s V o ne ge pe tio nd on di di lT pa ho pa Ra pa e Ra va ph ie ca bl eb ll P Fr eb ws er le Ca Lo x W bs Te W W Ce Ne O er S AA NW th n w NO O O
    14. Responses by Event Blizzard 2008 April 11th Question: Based on the forecast, what special preparations did you take for this storm? (select all that apply) 27.5% 30.0% 25.1% 23.7% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 11.4% 10.0% 4.3% 2.8% 2.8% 5.0% 1.4% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% g or ne t n el er as er n Ki in t io t io ov at th at No G riv al ica er O ip Sh /W iv rD en cr rv un lt/ od es fo G Su Sa m Fo Pr e m m y Co tra d nc Ti lle Ex ge d tra Fi se er Ex Em ea cr In
    15. Responses by Event Winter Storm 2008 April 6th Question: Based on the forecast, what special preparations did you take for this storm? (select all that apply) 37.1% 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 21.2% 25.0% 16.7% 20.0% 15.0% 10.6% 10.0% 4.5% 3.0% 2.3% 2.3% 1.5% 0.8% 5.0% 0.0% g or ne t n el er as er n Ki in t io t io ov at th at No G riv al ica er O ip Sh /W iv rD en cr rv un lt/ od es fo G Su Sa m Fo Pr e m m y Co tra d nc Ti lle Ex ge d tra Fi se er Ex Em ea cr In
    16. Responses by Event Blizzard 2008 April 11th Question: Based on the forecast, what special preparations did you take for this storm? (select all that apply) 27.5% 30.0% 25.1% 23.7% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 11.4% 10.0% 4.3% 2.8% 2.8% 5.0% 1.4% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% g or ne t n el er as er n Ki in t io t io ov at th at No G riv al ica er O ip Sh /W iv rD en cr rv un lt/ od es fo G Su Sa m Fo Pr e m m y Co tra d nc Ti lle Ex ge d tra Fi se er Ex Em ea cr In
    17. Responses by Event Blizzard 2008 April 11th Question: Based on the forecast, what special preparations did you take for this storm? (select all that apply) 27.5% 30.0% 25.1% 23.7% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 11.4% 10.0% 4.3% 2.8% 2.8% 5.0% 1.4% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% g or ne t n el er as er n Ki in t io t io ov at th at No G riv al ica er O ip Sh /W iv rD en cr rv un lt/ od es fo G Su Sa m Fo Pr e m m y Co tra d nc Ti lle Ex ge d tra Fi se er Ex Em ea cr In
    18. Responses by Event Winter Storm 2008 April 6th Question: Based on the forecast, what special preparations did you take for this storm? (select all that apply) 37.1% 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 21.2% 25.0% 16.7% 20.0% 15.0% 10.6% 10.0% 4.5% 3.0% 2.3% 2.3% 1.5% 0.8% 5.0% 0.0% g or ne t n el er as er n Ki in t io t io ov at th at No G riv al ica er O ip Sh /W iv rD en cr rv un lt/ od es fo G Su Sa m Fo Pr e m m y Co tra d nc Ti lle Ex ge d tra Fi se er Ex Em ea cr In
    19. Responses by Event Winter Storm 2008 April 6th Question: Based on the forecast, what special preparations did you take for this storm? (select all that apply) 37.1% 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 21.2% 25.0% 16.7% 20.0% 15.0% 10.6% 10.0% 4.5% 3.0% 2.3% 2.3% 1.5% 0.8% 5.0% 0.0% g or ne t n el er as er n Ki in t io t io ov at th at No G riv al ica er O ip Sh /W iv rD en cr rv un lt/ od es fo G Su Sa m Fo Pr e m m y Co tra d nc Ti lle Ex ge d tra Fi se er Ex Em ea cr In
    20. Responses by Event Snow Advisory 2008 March 18th Based on the forecast, what special preparations did you take for this storm? (select all that apply) 70.0% 59.4% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 16.8% 20.0% 12.8% 0.9% 4.0% 0.3% 3.7% 0.3% 10.0% 1.7% 0.3% 0.0% e as el it n g er r or n e lK on io in tio ov th at at G riv at N va ip O W Sh er ic rD cr vi d/ en un lt/ es r o fo Su Sa G m Fo pr e om cy m ra d lle C n Ti t Ex ge Fi d ra se er t Ex Em ea cr In
    21. Compare Responses Question: Based on the forecast, what special preparations did you take for this storm? Blizzard Winter Storm Snow Advisory Food and Water: 28% Food and Water: 11% Food and Water: 4% Gas: 24% Gas: 17% Gas: 17% Increased Increased Increased Communication: 25% Communication: 21% Communication: 12% Nothing: 11% Nothing: 37% Nothing: 59% Extra Driving Time: 4% Extra Driving Time: 4% Extra Driving Time: 4%
    22. Responses by Event Snow Advisory 2008 March 18th (Open Response) Why Did You Alter Your Routine? 41.5% 45.0% 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 18.1% 20.0% 15.0% 7.4% 10.0% 4.3% 5.0% 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% poor travel hazard consistency of snowed in work/school other forecast closed
    23. Responses by Event Snow Advisory 2008 March 18th (Open Response) Why did you NOT Alte r Your Routine ? 37.3% 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 7.7% 7.2% 10.0% 5.7% 4.8% 5.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% had truck did not storm f orecast did not temps. storm have to w as not w as not have normal go to bad accurate plans f or MN w ork
    24. Responses by Event Winter Storm 2008 April 6th (Open Response) Why Did You Alter Your Routine? 40.0% 34.1% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 17.1% 20.0% 15.0% 7.3% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% poor travel hazard (blizzard consistency snowed in work/school conditions) closed
    25. Responses by Event Winter Storm 2008 April 6th (Open Response) Why Did You NOT Alter Your Routine? 25.0% 22.6% 20.0% 16.1% 15.0% 10.0% 4.8% 4.8% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% normal for MN did not have to go storm was not forecast was not did not have to work bad accurate plans
    26. Responses by Event Blizzard 2008 April 11th (Open Response) Why Did You Alter Your Routine? 60.0% 48.0% 45.3% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 21.3% 20.0% 9.3% 10.0% 0.0% poor travel hazard (blizzard consistency work/school closed conditions)
    27. Responses by Event Blizzard 2008 April 11th (Open Response) Why Did You NOT Alter Your Routine? 25.0% 20.0% 20.0% 15.0% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 5.0% 0.0% had truck did not have to go storm was not forecast was not did not have to work bad accurate plans
    28. Interesting perception… “I live in Northern MN, a snow storm with 25” is not a big deal.” These kind of open responses introduced the idea to include a question along the lines of : “On a scale from 1 to 10, how does this storm compare to typical winter storm in this area? Please select a number from 1 to 10, with 1 meaning this was a very common storm and 10 meaning it was an extremely rare storm.
    29. Test Season Conclusions  Significant number of respondents stated they altered their routine because concerned about road conditions/travel.  People did not perceive the meteorlogic terminology such as sleet and freezing rain as the threat; because not a direct impact?   There was an increase in preparedness (gas, food water, communication) with highly anticipated blizzard versus low impact snow advisory  Climatology plays major factor…What is viewed as “normal” for winter?
    30. Post Storm Survey Please Refer to the All About the PSS Slideshow for details into the Post Storm Survey and background on its development. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/Image/dlh/slideshows/PSS_background.pdf
    31. How to get involved? If you are interested in hosting a link to the Post Storm Survey on your website, please send an email to poststormsurvey@gmail.com
    32. Thank You! Matt Taraldsen Saint Cloud State University Meteorology-Communications Student poststormsurvey@gmail.com Amanda Graning Forecaster/Meteorologist National Weather Service, WFO Duluth, MN amanda.graning@noaa.gov Post Storm Survey Team Mike Bettwy, Matt Taraldsen Amanda Graning, Amy Liles

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