Key Note - PMI Congress Poland - The Role of the Project Manager with Kanban

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Kanban systems are used to improve service delivery in creative knowledge work. This presentation looks at how use of Kanban affects the role of a project manager. It takes a look at how planning, scheduling, estimating, issue and risk management are affected by adopting Kanban.

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  • Intent is that class opening to mid-morning break slides 1 through 35
  • Key Note - PMI Congress Poland - The Role of the Project Manager with Kanban

    1. 1. Improving Service Delivery with Kanban The Role of the Project Manager Presenter David J. Anderson CEO, Lean Kanban Inc. PMI Congress Warsaw December 2013 Release 1.0 dja@leankanban.com @lkuceo PMI Congress Warsaw 2013, Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
    2. 2. Who are you, really? Do you spend your time… Sounds like Scheduling meetings? administrative work! Coordinating participation? Collecting data? Reporting status? You must be the Sending communications? ‚project secretary‛? Running down problems? dja@leankanban.com @lkuceo PMI Congress Warsaw 2013, Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
    3. 3. Perhaps that isn’t a sexy enough title? No! Ah! I’m a Fire Fighter! So, you are the hero? My projects would fail without me Is it a disaster movie? dja@leankanban.com @lkuceo PMI Congress Warsaw 2013, Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
    4. 4. Who do you really want to be? Leader? What Director? is stopping you from achieving this? Risk Manager? What hinders you Service Delivery fromManager? that being all you can be? All of the above??? dja@leankanban.com @lkuceo PMI Congress Warsaw 2013, Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
    5. 5. Let Kanban help you! Kanban enables Kanban systems help project managers organizations improve to realize their full predictability of knowledge worker potential… Retire your activities firefighter hat and your project … to manage Reliable, predictable, management water risk, lead with trustworthycannon! services confidence, delight customers dja@leankanban.com @lkuceo PMI Congress Warsaw 2013, Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
    6. 6. What is a kanban system? dja@leankanban.com @lkuceo PMI Congress Warsaw 2013, Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
    7. 7. A Kanban Systems consists of “kanban” (かんばん) signal cards in circulation dja@leankanban.com @lkuceo PMI Congress Warsaw 2013, Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
    8. 8. Understanding Kanban Systems dja@leankanban.com @lkuceo PMI Congress Warsaw 2013, Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
    9. 9. Kanban systems are pull systems Development Test Ready Testing UAT Release Ready 3 5 3 ∞ ∞ 5 Ideas Dev Ready Ongoing Pull K M F Done B Pull J G N O F I F Pull D C * Pulling work from Now we have capacity development will There is capacity here I to replenish our ready create capacity here buffer – too the pull signals move upstream! dja@leankanban.com @lkuceo PMI Congress Warsaw 2013, Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
    10. 10. Commitment is deferred Development Test Ready Testing UAT Release Ready 3 5 3 ∞ ∞ 5 Ideas Dev Ready Ongoing Done Ideas remain optional and (ideally) unprioritized Pull F F F F F F F D G E Wish to avoid discard after commitment We are committing to getting started. We are certain we want to take delivery. Commitment point dja@leankanban.com @lkuceo I PMI Congress Warsaw 2013, Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
    11. 11. Focus on blocked work & re-work Ideas Dev Ready 5 Project managers must Test Testing Ready Development develop a capability UAT 3 5 3 ∞ Ongoing Done for… E issue management risk identification D F root cause analysis, risk reduction & mitigation 12 P L F F F M 34 G Blocking Issue dja@leankanban.com @lkuceo Defec t PMI Congress Warsaw 2013, Copyright Lean Kanban Inc. Release Ready ∞
    12. 12. Implications of Using a Kanban System We must choose… Kanban Systems focus our attention on What to work on… now? What Scheduling to leave until & later? Risk Management What to abandon? dja@leankanban.com @lkuceo PMI Congress Warsaw 2013, Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
    13. 13. Metrics with Kanban Systems dja@leankanban.com @lkuceo PMI Congress Warsaw 2013, Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
    14. 14. Defining Kanban System Lead Time Development Test Ready Testing UAT Release Ready 3 5 3 ∞ ∞ 5 Ideas Dev Ready Ongoing Pull F F F F F F F D G Done The clock starts ticking when we accept the customers order, not when it is placed!Kanban system lead time Until then customer orders are ends merely E available options when the item reaches the I M System Lead Time dja@leankanban.com @lkuceo PMI Congress Warsaw 2013, Copyright Lean Kanban Inc. first ∞ queue
    15. 15. Observe Service Delivery Capability* Service B Service A Possible 2nd Mode? 30 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 25 20 15 Frequency 10 Frequency 5 0 5 10 Lead Time (Days) Median ~9 days 15 20 25 30 More Lead Time in Days Median ~9 days 98% 70+ days 98% 30 days Mean 12 days Mean 17 days 85% 15 days 85% ~40 days *Data from CME Group Nynex Exchange, New York PMI Congress Warsaw 2013, Copyright Lean Kanban Inc. dja@leankanban.com @lkuceo
    16. 16. Little’s Law Delivery Rate (out of kanban system) = WIP Lead Time (thru kanban system) Ideas Avg. Lead Time WIP dja@leankanban.com @lkuceo Release Ready Avg. Delivery Rate PMI Congress Warsaw 2013, Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
    17. 17. Flow Efficiency Dev Ready Ideas Flow efficiencyDevelopment measures the Test Ready Testing UAT 5 3 5 3 ∞ percentage of total lead time Ongoing Done actually spent adding value (or knowledge) versus waiting Flow efficiency = Work Time DE Waiting Working MN AB Waiting Waiting Working Lead Time * Zsolt Fabok, Lean Agile Scotland, Sep 2012, Lean Kanban France, Oct 2012 ** Hakan Forss, Lean Kanban France, Oct 2013 dja@leankanban.com @lkuceo x 100% Multitasking means time spent E in working columns is often waiting time PB GY ∞ Lead Time Flow efficiencies of 1-5% are F commonly reported. *, ** P1 D > 40% is good! G I Release Ready PMI Congress Warsaw 2013, Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
    18. 18. Implications of low Flow Efficiency Ideas Dev Ready 5 F P1 G I Test Low flow efficiency UAT Testing Ready Development means that most of 3 5 3 ∞ Ongoing Done lead time is time As a result, lead is influenced by not very sensitive environmental to specific people Dfactors that are involved or their unlikely to E change individual capabilities PB DE soon MN GY AB Waiting Working Waiting Waiting Working Lead Time dja@leankanban.com @lkuceo PMI Congress Warsaw 2013, Copyright Lean Kanban Inc. Release Ready ∞
    19. 19. Role of the Project Manager dja@leankanban.com @lkuceo PMI Congress Warsaw 2013, Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
    20. 20. Roles & Responsibilities Kanban is usuallyan Kanban provides implemented by the opportunity for all function managers, so management roles to what is the role for think the project manager? differently, focusing on real business risks dja@leankanban.com @lkuceo PMI Congress Warsaw 2013, Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
    21. 21. impact When should we start something? If we start too early, we forgo the option and opportunity to do something else that may provide value. time If we start too late we risk Ideal Start incurring the cost of delay When we need it Here With a 6 in 7 chance of on-time delivery, we can always expedite to insure on-time delivery 85th percentile Commitment point dja@leankanban.com @lkuceo PMI Congress Warsaw 2013, Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
    22. 22. Risk Management trims the tail Risks often cause long lead times Identify risks, their likelihood & impact (delay that extends lead time). Eliminating risks or reducing their impact trims the tail on the distribution. Trimming the tail moves the mean to the left, increasing delivery rate! dja@leankanban.com @lkuceo PMI Congress Warsaw 2013, Copyright Lean Kanban Inc. 85th percentile mean
    23. 23. Blocker Clustering • Identify Risks • Identify Likelihood & Impact • Root Cause Analysis • Reduction & Mitigation actions http://www.klausleopold.com/2013/09/blocker-clusters-problems-are-not.html dja@leankanban.com @lkuceo PMI Congress Warsaw 2013, Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
    24. 24. Seeing Services in your Organization dja@leankanban.com @lkuceo PMI Congress Warsaw 2013, Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
    25. 25. The Kanban lens Learn to view what you do now as a set of services (that can be improved): • Creative work is service-oriented • Service delivery involves workflow • Workflow involves a series of knowledge discovery activities • Map the knowledge discovery workflow • Track work flowing through the service • Identify service requests for new work dja@leankanban.com @lkuceo PMI Congress Warsaw 2013, Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
    26. 26. What Service Do You Provide? 1. Who are your customers? (or other stakeholders you must serve such as a regulatory authority) 2. What do they ask you for? 3. What do you do in response to those requests? 4. How is one request treated in comparison to others? 5. Where does finished work go? dja@leankanban.com @lkuceo PMI Congress Warsaw 2013, Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
    27. 27. Column WIP Limit =5 Testing is a shared service across 5 dev teams In this example, testing was off-shore in Chennai, India dja@leankanban.com @lkuceo PMI Congress Warsaw 2013, Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
    28. 28. (some of the) orange tickets are avatars for people from shared services such as enterprise architecture and user experience design dja@leankanban.com @lkuceo PMI Congress Warsaw 2013, Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
    29. 29. 5 lanes each with a dev team providing a software development service to the project dja@leankanban.com @lkuceo PMI Congress Warsaw 2013, Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
    30. 30. Column WIP Limits Clinical Validation Testing, Deployment, P.O. Acceptance All are shared services across 3 dev teams dja@leankanban.com @lkuceo PMI Congress Warsaw 2013, Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
    31. 31. Scaling up for large projects dja@leankanban.com @lkuceo PMI Congress Warsaw 2013, Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
    32. 32. Projects are just big batches of work Project Scope Dev Ready Development Test Ready Testing UAT Release Ready 3 5 3 ∞ ∞ 5 Ongoing F N O P Q Done D G M E I R S dja@leankanban.com @lkuceo PMI Congress Warsaw 2013, Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
    33. 33. Calculate duration to complete the batch Project Scope Development Test Ready Testing UAT Release Ready 3 Dev Ready 5 3 ∞ ∞ 5 Ongoing Done Only a little! Let me This isyou show overly simplistic is it more! not? D G E F O M N P Q R I S dja@leankanban.com @lkuceo PMI Congress Warsaw 2013, Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
    34. 34. Major project with two-tiered kanban board dja@leankanban.com @lkuceo PMI Congress Warsaw 2013, Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
    35. 35. Single Project Daily Meeting In this example more than 40 people attend a standup for a large project with 5 concurrent development teams. The meeting is usually completed in under 15 minutes dja@leankanban.com @lkuceo PMI Congress Warsaw 2013, Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
    36. 36. Little’s Law WIP = Delivery Rate Lead Time Backlog Avg. Lead Time WIP dja@leankanban.com @lkuceo Ready To Deploy Avg. Delivery Rate PMI Congress Warsaw 2013, Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
    37. 37. Cumulative Flow and Predictive Modeling with S-Curve 240 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Time Inventory dja@leankanban.com @lkuceo Started Designed Coded Complete PMI Congress Warsaw 2013, Copyright Lean Kanban Inc. 30 -M ar 23 -M ar 16 -M ar 9M ar 2M ar eb 24 -F eb Typical S-curve 17 -F 10 -F eb Features Device Management Ike II Cumulative Flow
    38. 38. Understanding Unplanned Work Scope Creep Dark Matter (emergent features) Original Scope Dark matter planned as a 19% expansion over original scope Actual Dark Matter over final original scope is 26% Total scope compared to original commitment is 13% greater dja@leankanban.com @lkuceo PMI Congress Warsaw 2013, Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
    39. 39. TV/Movie Company in USA 2008 Initial Scope is 125 story points Within days this total scope reaches 190 due to dark matter expansion Management intervened on 4/21 to stop dark matter (deferring future scope to product backlog) Observed dark matter expansion is 52% but real number was much greater dja@leankanban.com @lkuceo PMI Congress Warsaw 2013, Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
    40. 40. Rules of Thumb for Dark Matter Typical Agile teams Mature teams produce 50% dark working in well matter understood domains produce less dark Immature teams may matter find 100-200% more work than they Maybe 20% planned dja@leankanban.com @lkuceo PMI Congress Warsaw 2013, Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
    41. 41. Determining the schedule Instead ask, ‚when do Refuse to answer the you need it for?‛ question, And facilitate a ‚How long aboutit discussion will the take?‛ cost of delay* * Cost of delay is out-of-scope for this presentation due to time constraints dja@leankanban.com @lkuceo PMI Congress Warsaw 2013, Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
    42. 42. Determining the scope We need to understand the height ofTo do this quickly & the y-axis in a unit of measure that is cheaply some typical of work items statistical methods normally handled by can be used together withthis randomly service/workflow sampled analysis dja@leankanban.com @lkuceo PMI Congress Warsaw 2013, Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
    43. 43. Estimating using statistical methods … Randomly sample, 5, 7 or 11 requirements and analyze them. The more samples the less risk in extrapolating the result dja@leankanban.com @lkuceo Requirement # 34 53 61 103 151 187 209 PMI Congress Warsaw 2013, Copyright Lean Kanban Inc. # of User Stories 17 24 14 15 20 18 18
    44. 44. … build a model … Requirement # 34 53 61 103 151 187 209 # of User Stories 17 24 14 15 20 18 18 There is a 90% chance that the median lies between the lowest & highest numbers in the sample.* Make some educated guesses & build a model 24 17 mean 22 User stories / requirement * “How to measure anything”, Douglas Hubbard dja@leankanban.com @lkuceo PMI Congress Warsaw 2013, Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
    45. 45. … complete the forecast => 85 x 1.3 Let’s factor 30% = 110 requirements for dark matter based on ~22 stories per requirement historical performance, tea m maturity & Target scope is 2200 stories nature of domain dja@leankanban.com @lkuceo PMI Congress Warsaw 2013, Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
    46. 46. Make a long term plan to build platform replacement Device Management Ike II Cumulative Flow Hyper-productive Phase 2008 30 -M ar 16 -M ar 5x 9M ar 2M ar eb Initial Phase 24 -F eb 2006 17 -F 10 -F Slope in middle 3.5x - 5x slope at ends 23 -M ar 240 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 eb Features Required delivery rate Closing Phase During the middle 60% of the project schedule we Time need a delivery rate of 220 features per month Inventory dja@leankanban.com @lkuceo Started Designed Coded Complete PMI Congress Warsaw 2013, Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
    47. 47. Little’s Law Determines staffing level Calculated based on known lead time capability & required PlandeliveryChanging the WIP limit without based onrate currently observed maintaining the staffing level capability and current working ratio assume process practices. Do not represents a change to the way of working. It is a change to improvements. the process and will produce a Delivery Rateto reduce undesirable‘common change in the observed If changing WIP cause’ capability new effects (e.g. multitasking), get of the system Lead Time sample data (perform a spike) to observe the new capability From observed capability Target Treat as a fixed to variable achieve plan = dja@leankanban.com @lkuceo PMI Congress Warsaw 2013, Copyright Lean Kanban Inc. WIP
    48. 48. Using Little’s Law Determines staffing level Calculated based on known lead time capability & required At this point perhaps just a little delivery rate black magic and experience may be required. If our current working WIP = 22 practices/process exhibited an Rounding 22 up to 25 would average WIP of 1 item per person then 55/week 25 people organized infor 5 teams we require conveniently provide 5 with to complete 5 items each teams of 5 peoplea WIP limit of the 0.4 weeks project on-time = From observed capability Target to achieve plan dja@leankanban.com @lkuceo Treat as a fixed variable PMI Congress Warsaw 2013, Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
    49. 49. 1 lane per team dja@leankanban.com @lkuceo PMI Congress Warsaw 2013, Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
    50. 50. WIP in this area should be 25 items* *photo taken early in the project before it was fully staffed/loaded Lead time Median lead time target is 2 days Alert managers if beyond 5 days dja@leankanban.com @lkuceo PMI Congress Warsaw 2013, Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
    51. 51. Conclusions dja@leankanban.com @lkuceo PMI Congress Warsaw 2013, Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
    52. 52. Conclusions Project managers elevate Kanban provides their role to risk transparency manager! Determine when to start Status of WIP is work based on business obvious risks Most secretarial Trim tail on lead time work is eliminated! distribution to maintain delivery rate dja@leankanban.com @lkuceo PMI Congress Warsaw 2013, Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
    53. 53. Thank you! dja@leankanban.com @lkuceo PMI Congress Warsaw 2013, Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
    54. 54. Upcoming Training in Europe 5-day Kanban Coaching Professional Masterclass London 3-7 February http://djaa.com/kcpm-feb2014 2-day Advanced Practitioner Oslo 10-11 February, 2014 http://djaa.com/dja-ap0220141 Copenhagen 12-13 February, 2014 http://djaa.com/dja-ap0220142 dja@leankanban.com @lkuceo PMI Congress Warsaw 2013, Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
    55. 55. About David Anderson is a thought leader in managing effective software teams. He leads a training, consulting, publishing and event planning business dedicated to developing, promoting and implementing sustainable evolutionary… He has 30 years experience in the high technology industry starting with computer games in the early 1980’s. He has led software teams delivering superior productivity and quality using innovative agile methods at large companies such as Sprint and Motorola. David is the pioneer of the Kanban Method an agile and evolutionary approach to change. His latest book, published in June 2012, is, Lessons in Agile Management – On the Road to Kanban. David leads Lean Kanban Inc., a global management training, events & publishing business dedicated to offering high quality, innovative, modern management training for the creative knowledge worker industries of the 21st Century. dja@leankanban.com @lkuceo PMI Congress Warsaw 2013, Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
    56. 56. Acknowledgements The data on slide 15 was provided by Raymond Keating of CME Group. Troy Magennis has pioneered the use of Douglas Hubbard’s statistical techniques in conjunction with Kanban and introduced Monte Carlo simulation to replace the 3-phase Z-model presented here Klaus Leopold has been pioneering the use of blocker clustering to encourage project managers to focus on the greater added value of risk management and managing average lead time by curbing opportunity for long tail distributions dja@leankanban.com @lkuceo PMI Congress Warsaw 2013, Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
    57. 57. dja@leankanban.com @lkuceo PMI Congress Warsaw 2013, Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.

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