Climate change is any long-term significant change in the “average weather” that a given region experiences. Average weather may include average temperature, precipitation and wind patterns. It involves changes in the variability or average state of the atmosphere over durations ranging from decades to millions of years. These changes can be caused by dynamic process on Earth, external forces including variations in sunlight intensity, and more recently by human activities. The dominant mechanisms to which recent climate change has been attributed all result from human activity. They are: [1] increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases global changes to land surface, such as deforestation increasing atmospheric concentrations of aerosols . Recent reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report have concluded that: "Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations." [2] "From new estimates of the combined anthropogenic forcing due to greenhouse gases, aerosols , and land surface changes , it is extremely likely that human activities have exerted a substantial net warming influence on climate since 1750." [1] "It is virtually certain that anthropogenic aerosols produce a net negative radiative forcing (cooling influence) with a greater magnitude in the Northern Hemisphere than in the Southern Hemisphere . [1] The panel, which represents consensus in the scientific community , defines "very likely," "extremely likely," and "virtually certain" as indicating probabilities greater than 90%, 95%, and 99%, respectively. [1]
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Tackling Climate Change: Local Planning for a Global Crisis - Presentation Transcript
Tackling Climate Change: Local Planning for a Global Crisis Dr Alun Jones
Climate Change – is it real Comparison photos of Muir and Riggs Glaciers in Glacier Bay National Park and Preserve, Alaska ( Global Warming Art ).
Is it here yet?
What should we do? Accept its consequences or take action?
No more discussion
The debate on climate change has shifted, from whether we need to act towards how much we need to do by when, and the economic implications of doing so.
The economic impact
Stern Review 2006 - economics of climate change
one percent of global gross domestic product (GDP) per annum is required to be invested in order to avoid the worst effects of climate change, and that failure to do so could risk global GDP being up to twenty percent lower than it otherwise might be.
April 2008 "We badly underestimated the degree of damages and the risks of climate change,". "All of the links in the chain are on average worse than we thought a couple of years ago."
UK’s Response
The Climate Change Bill
Legally binding target for reducing UK carbon dioxide emission by at least 26 per cent by 2020 and at least 60 per cent by 2050, compared to 1990 levels.
The Importance of Geography …… ..because everything happens somewhere.
UK Impact
Annual average temperatures look set to rise by between 2C and 3.5C by the 2080's
Precipitation in winter will increase in all areas of the country, in every one of the scenarios.
T he increase is predicted to range from between 10% and 20%, depending on the area of the country, for the 'low emissions' .
Predicted UK Flood regions, commons Wikipedia
The role for Geographic Information
Planning
Energy Consumption
Flooding
Transportation
Awareness
Housing
The role for Geographic Information
Planning
LAND USE Green Corridors Industrial Heat Islands Sustainable communities Open Spaces
The role for Geographic Information
Energy Consumption
Energy Loss
The role for Geographic Information
Flooding
The role for Geographic Information
Detailed is key
The role for Geographic Information
Accurate results
Transportation
Example: Redditch Borough Council Cango Bus service Fuel consumption down by 5% Capacity up 25% Revenue up 25% (source Ordnance Survey)
Awareness - National
Awareness - Local
Sustainable development
Action is necessary Not just for our global environment but…
Action is necessary … also for our local environment
What can you do?
Personal Action plan
Reduce your carbon footprint
http://actonco2.direct.gov.uk/index.html
What can you do?
Climate Change Audit:
Environmental Perils
Flooding
Storm
Energy consumption
Heat loss
energy use
transportation
Awareness
Draw up an Geography Action Plan
The identification of priority actions as ‘Easy Wins’, ‘Big Strides’ and ‘Lasting Impacts’
Tackling fuel poverty – people receiving income based benefits living in homes with a low energy efficiency rating
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Adapting to climate change
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Flood and coastal erosion risk management
How far should you go?
Because everything happens somewhere A white paper entitled “Tackling climate change: local planning for a global crisis” is a available from www.citiesrevealed.com or by writing to Dr Alun Jones, alunj@citiesrevealed.com
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