Joint Presentation Food Crisis In Pakistan April 08

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Joint Presentation Food Crisis In Pakistan April 08

  1. 1. FAO/WFP/IFAD PRESENTATION TO UNCT April 22, 2008 CURRENT FOOD CRISIS AND SOARING PRICES IN PAKISTAN
  2. 2. Structure of Presentation <ul><ul><li>Countries in Current Food Crisis </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Consequences of food crisis </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>GLOBAL CONTEXT – Drivers of the Soaring Prices </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>PAKISTAN CONTEXT - Food Crisis & Soaring prices </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Mitigation Programmes </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>UN Delivering as One – Proposed Action </li></ul></ul>
  3. 3. Food Security Defined <ul><li>Food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life. </li></ul>
  4. 4. COUNTRIES IN CURRENT FOOD CRISIS Eritrea Madagascar Gambia Zimbabwe Angola Myanmar Guinea Mozambique Sao tome and principe Malawi Nepal Cogo, DR Chad Benin Sierra Leone Yemen Mauritania Zambia Niger Senegal Burundi Haiti OPT Ethiopia Timor-Leste Afghanistan Tajikistan Guinea-Bissau Somalia Central African Republic Tanzania Cameroon Rwanda Bangladesh Indonesia Comoros Togo Uganda Pakistan
  5. 5. CONSEQUENCES OF PERSISTENT FOOD SHORTAGES & PRICES HIKE <ul><li>Slow down/reversal of poverty alleviation efforts </li></ul><ul><li>Hinder economic growth and inflation control </li></ul><ul><li>Retard employment generation </li></ul><ul><li>Derail efforts to promote reform </li></ul><ul><li>Create social and political instability </li></ul><ul><li>RISK THAT MDG 1 TARGET FOR HUNGER WILL BE DRAMATICALLY MISSED </li></ul>
  6. 6. GLOBAL CONTEXT: DRIVERS OF SOARING PRICES <ul><li>Insufficient growth in cereal production </li></ul><ul><li>Declining cereal stocks (lowest in three decades) </li></ul><ul><li>Rise in petroleum prices (correlation to food > 0.6) </li></ul><ul><li>Increased demand from biofuels sector </li></ul><ul><li>Economic boom in large developing countries (5kg cereals produce 1kg meat) </li></ul><ul><li>Inadequate agriculture and trade policies (e.g. export bans can contribute to higher global prices) </li></ul>
  7. 7. LOW RATE OF GLOBAL CEREAL PRODUCTION Source: Data from FAO 2003, 2005-07 * Forecast. Million tons Total Million tons
  8. 8. CLIMATE CHANGE EFFECT ON AGRICULTURE PRODUCTION GROWTH BY 2080 Source: Cline, 2007
  9. 9. CEREAL STOCK DECLINE Source: FAO 2003 MILLION TONS
  10. 10. SOARING OIL PRICES Source: Data from FAO 2007 and IMF 2007 Commodity prices (US$/ton) New trend? Oil prices (US$/barrel)
  11. 11. THE BIO-FUEL BOOM Source: Global Subsidies Initiative 2007 Ethanol production 1975 - 2007 Biodiesel production 1991 - 2007 billion liters billion liters
  12. 12. UNFAOURABLE AGRICULTURE AND TRADE POLICIES <ul><li>Drastic decline in donor funding for agriculture </li></ul><ul><li>Creation of unfavourable environment: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Huge subsidy to DC farmers </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>High tariffs on value added products </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>High cost of compliance with International standards </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Soaring input costs VS historically depressed output prices </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Shrinking agriculture lands due to non-agricultural uses. </li></ul></ul>
  13. 13. <ul><li>PAKISTAN CONTEXT: </li></ul><ul><li>FOOD CRISIS/SOARING PRICES </li></ul>
  14. 14. FOOD CRSIS IN PAKISTAN CURRENT SITUATION <ul><li>Pakistan is listed among the 40 countries that are facing food crisis </li></ul><ul><li>Already food insecure population: 60 million </li></ul><ul><li>Additional 17 million are feared to have joined the food insecure categories </li></ul>
  15. 15. Commodities Price Hike in Pakistan (June 06 – March 08) Source: MINFAL
  16. 16. Effects of Food Price Hike <ul><li>Reversal of gains made in poverty alleviation </li></ul><ul><li>Reduced access to food </li></ul><ul><li>Poor diet quality </li></ul><ul><li>Increased micronutrient malnutrition </li></ul>
  17. 17. Reasons for Food Prices Surge <ul><li>International high prices (petreol and food) increase import costs and fuel price hikes </li></ul><ul><li>Price policy encourages siphoning and hoarding </li></ul><ul><li>Price differential with neighbour countries </li></ul><ul><li>Unfavourable weather conditions </li></ul><ul><li>Shortfall in domestic production </li></ul>
  18. 18. MITIGATION PROGRAMMES <ul><li>Short Term: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Targeted Relief/Subsidies and Safety Nets </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Medium Term: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Scale-up national food security programme </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Long Term: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Create enabling environment for sustainable agriculture growth </li></ul></ul>
  19. 19. “ DELIVERING AS ONE-UN” PROPOSED ACTION <ul><li>UN ADVISORY ROLE </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Conduct immediate situation assessment study </li></ul></ul><ul><li>UN ADVOCACY ROLE </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Assist Gov’t in formulating Policies and Action Plan </li></ul></ul><ul><li>UN CONVENER ROLE </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Call for Donor partnership in short and medium term mitigation efforts </li></ul></ul><ul><li>UN SERVICE PROVIDER ROLE </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Agencies to provide partnership support to Gov’t in their areas of comparative advantage in short and medium term mitigation measures </li></ul></ul>
  20. 20. <ul><li>THANK YOU </li></ul><ul><li>? </li></ul>

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