Bear in Churchill Manitoba Flooding in Peterborough, On Drought in the upper Thames river watershed, Ontario
The Past is Not a Great Predictor of the Future: The Climate IS Changing Linda Mortsch Adaptation and Impacts Research Division, Environment Canada League of KA Business People - Green Event Hart House January 12, 2009
“ Warming of the climate system is unequivocal… ” IPCC 2007 ….
Most of increase in global temperatures since mid-20 th C is due to increase in human-caused greenhouse gas concentrations
Multiple climate futures depending on greenhouse gas emissions…
Global warming by 2100:
1.8°C to 4.0°C (best estimates)
Sea level rise by 2100:
18 to 59 cm
More extreme events
The future temperature projections … Source: IPCC, 2007 www.ipcc.ch Committed warming if GHG held at 2000 levels ~0.1°C/decade Need to adapt to warming of ~0.4°C next 2 decades 2030 Impact of mitigation felt in future 2050 Business as Usual Warming 0.74°C 1906-2005
Adaptations - retreat from coast, dykes, beach nourishment, zoning, warning systems & emergency preparedness
Netherlands – floating houses!
retreat Rebuild further away protection Build a wall zoning Control new development
Urban design & planning Implementing heat-health alert initiatives Adapting infrastructure design Implemented in urban areas in Ontario and Quebec Green Roofs Building on pylons to reduce damage from flooding FireSmart & FireSafe Technology & business plan changes 19 Some adaptation in Canada: in response to, & in anticipation of, climate change impacts…