Jan 2009 Ka Presentation Final


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The Past is Not a Great Pedictor of The Future:
The Climate is Changing
Kickass Green Event - Toronto - Jan 12, 2009
(Linda Mortsch)

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  • Bear in Churchill Manitoba Flooding in Peterborough, On Drought in the upper Thames river watershed, Ontario
  • Jan 2009 Ka Presentation Final

    1. 1. The Past is Not a Great Predictor of the Future: The Climate IS Changing Linda Mortsch Adaptation and Impacts Research Division, Environment Canada League of KA Business People - Green Event Hart House January 12, 2009
    2. 2. “ Warming of the climate system is unequivocal… ” IPCC 2007 …. <ul><li>Most of increase in global temperatures since mid-20 th C is due to increase in human-caused greenhouse gas concentrations </li></ul>
    3. 3. Multiple climate futures depending on greenhouse gas emissions… <ul><li>Global warming by 2100: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>1.8°C to 4.0°C (best estimates) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Sea level rise by 2100: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>18 to 59 cm </li></ul></ul><ul><li>More extreme events </li></ul>
    4. 4. The future temperature projections … Source: IPCC, 2007 www.ipcc.ch Committed warming if GHG held at 2000 levels ~0.1°C/decade Need to adapt to warming of ~0.4°C next 2 decades 2030 Impact of mitigation felt in future 2050 Business as Usual Warming 0.74°C 1906-2005
    5. 5. We need to mitigate and adapt … <ul><ul><li>Mitigation – reduce emissions & increase sinks of greenhouse gases to halt/prevent climate change & stabilize concentrations of gases </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>LEED standards, car fuel efficiency and enhance public transit </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Adaptation – respond to impacts of changing climate - moderate harm or exploit beneficial opportunities </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>water conservation, insurance changes policies, floating houses </li></ul></ul></ul>
    6. 6. Adaptation in coastal communities … <ul><li>Sea level projected to rise along most coasts </li></ul><ul><li>Adaptations - retreat from coast, dykes, beach nourishment, zoning, warning systems & emergency preparedness </li></ul><ul><li>Netherlands – floating houses! </li></ul>retreat Rebuild further away protection Build a wall zoning Control new development
    7. 7. Urban design & planning Implementing heat-health alert initiatives Adapting infrastructure design Implemented in urban areas in Ontario and Quebec Green Roofs Building on pylons to reduce damage from flooding FireSmart & FireSafe Technology & business plan changes 19 Some adaptation in Canada: in response to, & in anticipation of, climate change impacts…
    8. 8. The adaptation challenge…reThinking <ul><li>Adaptation deficit </li></ul><ul><ul><li>extreme events (e.g., Hurricane Katrina) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Mainstreaming adaptation </li></ul><ul><ul><li>overcoming short-term planning horizon and management rigidity </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>incorporate climate change information in strategic planning, risk assessment, management, policy </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Past climate no longer reliable guide to the future </li></ul><ul><ul><li>assess multiple futures </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>anticipate sensitivities & risks </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>build resilience and flexibility </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>hedge against future losses </li></ul></ul><ul><li>We need innovators, entrepreneurs, marketers, early adaptors! </li></ul>
    9. 9. Thank you… Linda Mortsch, Environment Canada [email_address]
    10. 10. The IPCC wins 2007 Nobel Peace Prize