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Jan 2009 Ka Presentation Final

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The Past is Not a Great Pedictor of The Future: …

The Past is Not a Great Pedictor of The Future:
The Climate is Changing
Kickass Green Event - Toronto - Jan 12, 2009
(Linda Mortsch)

Published in: Business
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  • Bear in Churchill Manitoba Flooding in Peterborough, On Drought in the upper Thames river watershed, Ontario
  • Transcript

    • 1. The Past is Not a Great Predictor of the Future: The Climate IS Changing Linda Mortsch Adaptation and Impacts Research Division, Environment Canada League of KA Business People - Green Event Hart House January 12, 2009
    • 2. “ Warming of the climate system is unequivocal… ” IPCC 2007 ….
      • Most of increase in global temperatures since mid-20 th C is due to increase in human-caused greenhouse gas concentrations
    • 3. Multiple climate futures depending on greenhouse gas emissions…
      • Global warming by 2100:
        • 1.8°C to 4.0°C (best estimates)
      • Sea level rise by 2100:
        • 18 to 59 cm
      • More extreme events
    • 4. The future temperature projections … Source: IPCC, 2007 www.ipcc.ch Committed warming if GHG held at 2000 levels ~0.1°C/decade Need to adapt to warming of ~0.4°C next 2 decades 2030 Impact of mitigation felt in future 2050 Business as Usual Warming 0.74°C 1906-2005
    • 5. We need to mitigate and adapt …
        • Mitigation – reduce emissions & increase sinks of greenhouse gases to halt/prevent climate change & stabilize concentrations of gases
          • LEED standards, car fuel efficiency and enhance public transit
        • Adaptation – respond to impacts of changing climate - moderate harm or exploit beneficial opportunities
          • water conservation, insurance changes policies, floating houses
    • 6. Adaptation in coastal communities …
      • Sea level projected to rise along most coasts
      • Adaptations - retreat from coast, dykes, beach nourishment, zoning, warning systems & emergency preparedness
      • Netherlands – floating houses!
      retreat Rebuild further away protection Build a wall zoning Control new development
    • 7. Urban design & planning Implementing heat-health alert initiatives Adapting infrastructure design Implemented in urban areas in Ontario and Quebec Green Roofs Building on pylons to reduce damage from flooding FireSmart & FireSafe Technology & business plan changes 19 Some adaptation in Canada: in response to, & in anticipation of, climate change impacts…
    • 8. The adaptation challenge…reThinking
      • Adaptation deficit
        • extreme events (e.g., Hurricane Katrina)
      • Mainstreaming adaptation
        • overcoming short-term planning horizon and management rigidity
        • incorporate climate change information in strategic planning, risk assessment, management, policy
      • Past climate no longer reliable guide to the future
        • assess multiple futures
        • anticipate sensitivities & risks
        • build resilience and flexibility
        • hedge against future losses
      • We need innovators, entrepreneurs, marketers, early adaptors!
    • 9. Thank you… Linda Mortsch, Environment Canada [email_address]
    • 10. The IPCC wins 2007 Nobel Peace Prize

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