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Agri-Food Chain - Valnerability and Adaption

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The CEO of the Agricultural Business Chamber, Dr John Purchase presented at COP 17 NBI Side Event. Theme: Agri-Food Chain - Vulnerability and Adaption.

The CEO of the Agricultural Business Chamber, Dr John Purchase presented at COP 17 NBI Side Event. Theme: Agri-Food Chain - Vulnerability and Adaption.

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  • 1. Agri-Food Chain:Vulnerability and Adaptation COP17: NBI Side Event John Purchase 1 December 2011
  • 2. Acknowledgement• Global warming - empirical evidence• Resultant Climate Change – higher incidence of more extreme weather phenomena, e.g. droughts, floods, heat waves, cyclones, etc.• Impacts of climate change on agriculture and agricultural water management uncertain.• Effect on Food Security and the Global Food System: Biggest future shock?
  • 3. Acknowledgement• Global warming - empirical evidence• Resultant Climate Change – higher incidence of more extreme weather phenomena, e.g. droughts, floods, heat waves, cyclones, etc.• Impacts of climate change on agriculture and agricultural water management uncertain.• Effect on Food Security and the Global Food System: Biggest future shock?
  • 4. Three Key Publications
  • 5. N9-911-403 DECEMBER 15, 2010RAY A. GOLDBERGDJORDJIJA PETKOSKIMATTHEW PREBLELAURA WINIGClimate Management:The Biggest Future Shockto the Global Food System
  • 6. How vulnerable are we?• SA generally deemed nationally food secure, but with a significant level of food insecurity at household level.• Many definitions of food security, but the one we will use is the FAO definition: “A situation that exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life”.
  • 7. Components of Food Security FOOD UTILISATION FOOD ACCESS • Nutritional Value • Affordability • Social value • Allocation • Food safety • Preference Food Security FOOD AVAILABILITY Complex concept: • Production Difficult to measure • Distribution and evaluate. • Exchange/trade Purchasing power key to access Stability over TIME
  • 8. Severity: Integrated FoodSecurity Phase Classification
  • 9. Anticipated Impact of CC• Biggest concern is impact on Production (Food Availability), this in turn impacts Food Access & Food Utilisation: - Water availability: rainfall, dams, aquifers, etc. - Disease interactions - High temperature stress - Cold requirement of temperate crops not met• Need to ascertain: 1. How high is our exposure to CC? 2. How sensitive is our agro-food system to CC? 3. How good is our coping/adaptive capacity?
  • 10. Main agricultural water systems that CC is expected to impact (CGIAR, 2011)
  • 11. Anticipated Impact of CC• Biggest concern is impact on Production (Food Availability), in turn impacts Food Access & Food Utilisation: - Water availability: rainfall, dams, aquifers, etc. - Disease interactions - High temperature stress - Cold requirement of temperate crops not met• Need to ascertain: 1. How high is our exposure to CC? 2. How sensitive is our agro-food system to CC? 3. How good is our coping/adaptive capacity?
  • 12. Diagram of Food System Vulnerability (GECAFS, 2005)
  • 13. Areas with >16% cropping Source: CGIAR CCAFS, 2011 • In SA, Western Cape and Highveld (Maize Δ) an exposure concern • Changing patterns of production in specific regions
  • 14. Rainfall CV Source: CGIAR CCAFS, 2011
  • 15. Our ChallengeHow do we produce more with less, and produce fewer greenhouse gasses?Need to still ensure food security, and value chains need to be competitive in the global food system.Need holistic and integrated models across allproduction systems. Focus also on developing /subsistence agriculture. Innovation and technology critical.
  • 16. Innovation to address Climate Change• Innovative Water Management (drip irrig.)• Crop protection & Animal health/nutrition• Fertilizers (e.g. crop rotation with legumes)• Carbon Sequestration• Soil Conservation• Adjustments in Farm Practices• Adopting Good Agricultural Practices and New Technologies (Conservation Agric.)• Insurance Mechanisms
  • 17. Policy Measures• Doubt whether COP17 will provide Global Deal on Climate Change, but some progress possible.• Emission reduction for SA agriculture not clear, but SA’s Copenhagen Pledge comprises 34% deviation from business as usual by 2020, and 43% deviation from business as usual by 2025.• Private sector concern: Being placed in a non- competitive situation due to the absence of a global accord. Carbon tax a further concern.• IPAP and New Growth Path – lower C growth path.• Agriculture will require both mitigation and• adaptation policies and strategies
  • 18. Adaptation: Approach of value chains • Issue of adaptation is critical to food value chains as impacts will not only affect business operations, but also the markets in which they operate. • Need to enhance information regarding the opportunities and cost-effectiveness of adaptation measures, so that action can be taken based on a solid knowledge base. Good science thus important.
  • 19. Adaptation: Approach of value chains • Implications of climate change will vary, creating both business opportunities and challenges, as well as winners and losers. • Investment in adaptation can be both “soft” (e.g. stakeholder participation, etc.) and “hard” (e.g. physical installations, etc.). • How much adaptation might cost, and how large its benefits might be, are issues that are increasingly relevant both for governments and business.
  • 20. Adaptation: Issues for Consideration• Education on the “state of knowledge” is needed.• Adaptation efforts need to rest on a sound economic basis.• Analysis on the costs and benefits of adaptation in key sectors remains important.• Business has the potential to deliver concrete solutions, but government will need to engage constructively with business.
  • 21. Adaptation: Issues for Consideration• Incentives for adaptation.• Consider the role of public-private partnerships (PPP’s).• Consider the role of the insurance industry.• Financing aspects will be of key importance.• In view of the cross-border implications, international/regional cooperation will be essential.
  • 22. Mitigation: Sector emission trends and % changes since 1990 Source: DEAT NIR, May 2009 • Globally, agriculture contributes ~14% of annual GGE, plus 4-8% in land use changes • N2O & CH4 : By far biggest problem (N fertilisation & Enteric fermentation) • Major sink for CO2, esp. forestation and soil carbon.
  • 23. Way forward• Agro-food Industry committed to addressing adaptation and mitigation of CC in a holistic approach, BUT uniqueness of industry needs to be recognized.• Require balance between incentive and punitive approach to emission reduction. Carbon Tax threat?• Agribusiness recommends : - Support long-term innovation in clean technologies. - Utilise major potential of energy efficiency - Open trade remains important - Need to consider mitigation and adaptation of individual value chains – proper analysis NB. - Adopt environmentally sustainable land and resource practices - Important role of market-based approaches.
  • 24. For deliberation…… Given the potential cost burden ofmitigation and adaptation policies, it isessential to keep an economic focus inmind when seeking for environmental improvements. If we do, it will go a long way to ensuring food security. If not,…………….
  • 25. THANK YOUwww.agbiz.co.za

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