Systems Thinking For Teams Leaders And Policy Makers

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  • I’m sure by now we’ve all heard of Lean Thinking. So what is Lean Thinking used for? How about Statistical Thinking? What’s that used for? What about Systems Thinking? Anyone know what Systems Thinking is for?   Have you ever wondered? What causes the economy to cycle or crash? Whether global warming is all bad at its 2000 year high? If there would be less crime if drugs were legal? Why profits rise, fall or stagnate? What healthcare reform or tax reform will lead to? Why change programs tend to fail?   I’m talking about the tough questions everyone has an opinion about!   How would you begin to answer these questions? Would others agree? How would you get other people TO AGREE?   We may argue the answers but the truth is everyone is right from their point of view!   I’d like to thank you for letting me share a vital way of thinking that I feel is missing in most organizations.   It’s Systems Thinking!   Systems Thinking is the only tool I know of that gives us a good chance at agreement to the tough questions. When there is agreement there is progress towards desired results!   Systems Thinking helps us see the impact our policies or actions have on the organization, culture, or the environment so we can create sustainable change for the greater good.   We need to start thinking this way if we want to get the results we desire as a response-able company or community.   Systems Thinking also helps us share and combine our knowledge about how the world works, and it’s easy to learn because it requires the same level of thinking needed to create a Cause-Effect Diagram.
  • But we didn’t start out this way…
  • Give a 2-5 year old a new object and they will examine and begin to take it apart. This is a learning process called “analysis” which has three parts…
  • Dr. Senge is Director of the Center for Organizational Learning at MIT's Sloan School of Management, a group of corporations that work together advancing methods and knowledge for the building of learning organizations.
  • You don’t study “Business” - You study it’s parts and are left to figure out how it all fits together. How did you feel when you graduated from HS or College?
  • Understanding “Business” requires an understanding of the interaction among the parts
  • If you have a headache what to you do? Get brain surgery?
  • It’s not that upper management doesn’t support Lean-6Sigma (they always want people to do things faster & better)
  • If the team feels magnitude is << 1 this is a sign a key variable is missing.
  • http://images.google.com/images?sourceid=navclient&rlz=1T4ACAW_enUS301US302&q=causal%20loop%20diagrams&um=1&ie=UTF-8&hl=en&sa=N&tab=vi
  • If interested, leave your contact info and dates you are available.
  • Systems Thinking For Teams Leaders And Policy Makers

    1. 1. Systems Thinking for Teams, Leaders & Policy-Makers John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014
    2. 2. Ever wonder … <ul><li>What causes the economy to cycle and crash? </li></ul><ul><li>Is global warming all bad? </li></ul><ul><li>Would there be less crime if drugs were legal? </li></ul><ul><li>Why do profits rise and fall? </li></ul><ul><li>What will healthcare reform or tax reform bring? </li></ul><ul><li>Why change programs fail? </li></ul>John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014
    3. 3. Tough Questions! <ul><li>How would you begin to answer these questions? </li></ul><ul><li>Would others agree? </li></ul><ul><li>How would you get other people TO AGREE? </li></ul>John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014
    4. 4. Systems Thinking <ul><li>Systems Thinking is any process of foreseeing how local policies and actions influence the state of the universe </li></ul><ul><li>We all have different views of how the world works (how this affects that – why events happen) </li></ul><ul><li>To some degree we’re already Systems Thinkers </li></ul>John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014
    5. 5. Systems Thinking <ul><li>But we didn’t start out as Systems Thinkers </li></ul><ul><li>Our young INFINITE minds were wide open to accepting the way our teachers thought </li></ul>John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014
    6. 6. What do children do with new objects? New Object John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014
    7. 7. Analytic Thinking <ul><li>Take apart </li></ul><ul><li>Try to understand what the parts do </li></ul><ul><li>Assemble understanding of the parts into an understanding of the whole </li></ul>Whole = Σ Parts John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014 ?
    8. 8. Analytic Thinking <ul><li>We use analytic thinking to try and understand people as well </li></ul>John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014 President = George + Bush + Republican
    9. 9. Analytic Thinking <ul><li>We use analytic thinking when our business is not meeting its goals </li></ul>John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014 Sales Service Quality R&D Sales
    10. 10. <ul><li>From a very early age we are taught to break apart problems; to fragment the world. This apparently makes complex tasks and subjects more manageable, but we pay an enormous hidden price. We can no longer see the consequences of our actions. We lose our intrinsic sense of connection to a larger whole. </li></ul>Peter Senge John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014 <ul><li>When we then try to see the big picture we try to reassemble the fragments in our minds, to list and organize the pieces, but the task is futile. It’s similar to trying to reassemble the fragments of a broken mirror to see a true reflection. So after a while we give up trying to see the whole all together. </li></ul>
    11. 11. Analytic Thinking <ul><li>Formal education is based on analytic thinking </li></ul>John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014 Finance Economics Production Personnel Marketing Management Supply Chain MBA
    12. 12. Analytic Thinking <ul><li>In many ways it’s like trying to understand life by studying the dead </li></ul>Our entire culture is based on Analytic Thinking John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014
    13. 13. <ul><li>Assumption: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>If you know what the parts do you’ll be able to integrate that knowledge into an understanding of the WHOLE </li></ul></ul>Analytic Thinking “ Business” is the product of the interactions between the parts Finance Economics Production Personnel Marketing Management Supply Chain John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014
    14. 14. Analytic Thinking <ul><li>It’s not surprising that corporations, governments and organizations are created and managed by parts </li></ul>John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014 How is problem-solving approached in companies?
    15. 15. Analytic Thinking <ul><li>Analytic Thinking can’t tell us why we’re getting the results we’re getting because the parts lose their meaning when separated from the whole </li></ul><ul><li>This sets up learning disorders in organizations because cause and effect are often separated in space and time </li></ul><ul><li>System dynamics and delays make it impossible to judge or measure the effectiveness of our actions </li></ul>John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014 Roll Video
    16. 16. Analytic vs. Systems Thinking <ul><li>Analytic Thinking </li></ul><ul><li>Take apart </li></ul><ul><li>Try to understand what the parts do </li></ul><ul><li>Assemble your understanding of the parts into an understanding of the whole </li></ul><ul><li>Systems Thinking </li></ul><ul><li>Determine what it’s a part of </li></ul><ul><li>Try to understand the behavior of the whole </li></ul><ul><li>See the functional interdependencies of the parts with respect to the whole </li></ul>John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014
    17. 17. Analytic vs. Systems Thinking <ul><li>Analytic Thinking </li></ul><ul><li>Take apart </li></ul><ul><li>Try to understand what the parts do </li></ul><ul><li>Assemble understanding of the parts into an understanding of the whole </li></ul><ul><li>Systems Thinking </li></ul><ul><li>Determine what it’s a part of </li></ul><ul><li>Try to understand the behavior of the whole </li></ul><ul><li>See the functional interdependencies of the parts with respect to the whole </li></ul>Whole = Sum of Parts Whole = Product of Part Interactions John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014
    18. 18. Analytic vs. Systems Thinking <ul><li>Analytic Thinking </li></ul><ul><li>Take apart </li></ul><ul><li>Try to understand what the parts do </li></ul><ul><li>Assemble understanding of the parts into an understanding of the whole </li></ul><ul><li>Systems Thinking </li></ul><ul><li>Determine what it’s a part of </li></ul><ul><li>Try to understand the behavior of the whole </li></ul><ul><li>See the functional interdependencies of the parts with respect to the whole </li></ul>How parts work & the role they play Why events occur John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014
    19. 19. Why “Change Programs” Fail <ul><li>Focus is on getting people to do things faster and better rather than improving the system they are part of </li></ul><ul><li>Many times the system that needs changing is our own beliefs or paradigms and habitual thought processes </li></ul>John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014 Rx: Systems Thinking Rx: Thinking Into Results More later…
    20. 20. Systemic Problem-Solving Non-Systems Thinking John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014 Today’s solutions tomorrow’s problems Systems Thinking
    21. 21. Tools for Systems Thinking Cause-Effect Diagram John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014 Analytic Thinking Mostly Cause Theories All Causal Facts Measurement Material Man Mother Nature Machine Method Causal Loop Diagram Systems Thinking
    22. 22. Itching & Scratching John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014 + - Itching Scratching + Connection Matrix (Destination) (Source) Biological System
    23. 23. Itching & Scratching John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014 Pattern = Voice of the System Scratching No Scratching
    24. 24. Voice of the System <ul><li>Answers are not in terms of how much or when </li></ul><ul><ul><li>X-Y scales are unit less </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Answers are system behavior patterns </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Pattern = Vibration (Voice of the System) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Experienced as recurring or isolated events in space & time </li></ul>John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014 Scratching
    25. 25. Voice of the System <ul><li>Vibration is a universal language </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Hear, see, smell, taste, touch is all vibrational energy </li></ul></ul><ul><li>System vibration also tells us what to expect </li></ul>John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014 Scratching
    26. 26. Highway Accident Rate John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014 2 Accident Rate 3 Patrol Frequency 1 Vehicle Speed + + - + - Opinion of an Expert
    27. 27. Highway Accident Rate John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014
    28. 28. Highway Accident Rate John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014 5 Traffic Congestion 6 Bad Weather 4 Raise Driver Age 7 Driver’s Risk Aversion 2 Accident Rate 3 Patrol Frequency 1 Vehicle Speed + + - - + 8 Driver’s Education
    29. 29. Highway Accident Rate John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014 Expert Opinion
    30. 30. Highway Accident Rate John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014 < Accident Rate Vehicle Speed Driver’s Risk Aversion
    31. 31. Product Line Profit John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014
    32. 32. Product Line Profit John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014
    33. 33. Sick Call-Ins John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014
    34. 34. Sick Call-Ins John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014
    35. 35. Sick Call-Ins John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014
    36. 36. Cash for Clunkers John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014
    37. 37. Cash for Clunkers with FeeBate Structure John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014
    38. 38. Modeling Hierarchy John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014 Time & Effort Value (Utility) Modeling Hierarchy + Causal Magnitude + Functional Form + Constraints + Learning new language & software Seeking Structure Instead of Blame + Noise uncertainty with all the above + CLD (Key Variables, Causal Arrows & Signs) VOS
    39. 39. Google CLDs John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014
    40. 40. John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014 Alan Greenspan
    41. 41. Knowledge Networking (Linked Expert CLDs) Expert CLD 1 Expert CLD 2 Expert CLD K Expert CLD 4 Expert CLD 3 T T T T T T T T = Target Variable John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014
    42. 42. Knowledge Networking (Linked Expert CLDs) Expert CLD 1 Expert CLD 2 Expert CLD K Expert CLD 4 Expert CLD 3 T T T T T T T T = Target Variable John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014
    43. 43. John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014 $
    44. 44. Systemic Problem-Solving using DMAIC John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014 Knowledge Network
    45. 45. Systems vs. Statistical Thinking <ul><li>Statistical Thinking </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Detect and react to signals (not noise) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Prescribes appropriate inaction </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Systems Thinking </li></ul><ul><ul><li>How to react to signals </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Prescribes appropriate action </li></ul></ul>John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014 Skills leaders, policy-makers and change agents need to cure corporate arrhythmias
    46. 46. Summary <ul><li>PROBLEMS? Don’t just do something, SIT THERE! </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Take time to seek VOS not blame </li></ul></ul><ul><li>It’s possible to agree on answers to tough questions </li></ul><ul><li>We can create and simulate our mental models and use them to test policies </li></ul><ul><li>CLDs are true cause-effect diagrams </li></ul><ul><li>Expert opinion is better than opinion of an expert </li></ul><ul><li>Sustainability requires knowledge of the parts and how they interact and function as a whole </li></ul>John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014
    47. 47. I don’t worry about the future; I know what will happen… “… managers will either learn how to optimize the system or they will go out of business.” W. Edwards Deming John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014 Roll Video
    48. 48. Team Workshops <ul><li>Create and simulate CLDs using CLD SIM </li></ul><ul><li>Call for group rates (includes CLD SIM) </li></ul>John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014
    49. 49. John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014 CRC Press Optimizing the Health of Your Company with Systems Thinking
    50. 50. Thinking Into Results John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014 Leadership Program Systems Thinking changes the way organizations see and approach problems Thinking Into Results changes the organization’s paradigms and habitual thought process LifeSuccessCorporate.com
    51. 51. Belief System <ul><li>Does our experience create our beliefs or do our beliefs create our experience? </li></ul><ul><li>Yes, both! </li></ul>John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014 + Vision Results + Action + + Belief Potential +
    52. 52. Website http://sites.google.com/site/roicreationsllc John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014
    53. 53. Systems Thinking for Teams, Leaders & Policy-Makers John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014
    54. 54. John Dubuc ROI Creations, LLC Scottsdale, AZ (480) 283-7014

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