Sales Forecasting & Demand Analysis Of Ct Vs In India

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Sales Forecasting & Demand Analysis of CTV\'s in India

Sales Forecasting & Demand Analysis of CTV\'s in India

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  • 1. SALES FORECASTING FOR CTV’s IN INDIA
    • Submitted By:
    • Group # 3, Section A
      • Khagesh Agarwal
      • Kaveesh Joshi
      • Deepesh Bansal
      • Sulabh Jain
      • Anubha Jain
      • Hina Srivstava
  • 2. Research Methodology
    • Sample size taken : 50
    • Location : Delhi and NCR
    • Primary data : Questionnaires filled by the sample
    • Secondary data : Internet (Samsung Website)
    07/10/10 Sales Forecast & Demand Analysis of CTV's
  • 3. contd…
    • A questionnaire related to the attributes of CTV was devised, and were rated on a 5-point Likert scale.
    • The sampling size includes both male and female users from different occupation, age, and income groups.
    07/10/10 Sales Forecast & Demand Analysis of CTV's
  • 4. INTRODUCTION
    • Consumer demand is highly unstable.
    • Increasing competition
    • Complexity of competition
    • Behavioral complexities
    • Changing technology
    • Rural-Urban migration
    07/10/10 Sales Forecast & Demand Analysis of CTV's
  • 5. Consumer Durable Industry
    • Competition increased post IPR 1991.
    • Foreign players like Sony, Aiwa, LG, Samsung etc poured their products in India.
    • Consistently growing at a substantial rate.
    07/10/10 Sales Forecast & Demand Analysis of CTV's
  • 6. Key Drivers
    • Rising disposable income
    • Rise in the living standards and per capita income.
    • Easy access to consumer finance
    • Wide variety of choices
    • Technological advancements
    • Boom in retail and real estate industry
    • Changing consumer aesthetics
    • Innovative advertisement
    07/10/10 Sales Forecast & Demand Analysis of CTV's
  • 7. Industry Classification
    • Consumer Durable Industry
    • Consumer Electronics Consumer Appliances
    • White Goods Brown Goods
    07/10/10 Sales Forecast & Demand Analysis of CTV's
  • 8. Industry size, growth and trends
    • Growth in FY08 was 8.5% against 11.5% during the previous fiscal.
      • Fall in GDP growth rate.
      • Rising input costs.
      • Changing demand patterns.
    07/10/10 Sales Forecast & Demand Analysis of CTV's
  • 9. Volume Share-Major consumer durables Source: http://www.ficci.org/consumer_dur_ind.htm 07/10/10 Sales Forecast & Demand Analysis of CTV's
  • 10. Source: http://www.ficci.org/consumer_dur_ind.htm 07/10/10 Sales Forecast & Demand Analysis of CTV's
  • 11. Television Sets : Growth in Sales Source: http://www.ficci.org/consumer_dur_ind.htm 07/10/10 Sales Forecast & Demand Analysis of CTV's
  • 12. SWOT Analysis
    • STRENGTHS:
      • Presence of established distribution networks in both urban and rural areas.
      • Presence of well known brands.
      • In recent years, organized sector has increased its share in the market vis a vis the unorganized sector. 
    • WEAKNESSES:
      • Demand is seasonal and is high during festive season.
      • Demand is dependent on good monsoons.
      • Poor government spending on infrastructure.
    07/10/10 Sales Forecast & Demand Analysis of CTV's
  • 13.
    • OPPURTUNITIES:
      • In India, the penetration level of white goods is lower as compared to other developing countries.
      • Unexploited rural market.
      • Rapid urbanization.
      • Increase in income levels, i.e. increase in purchasing power of consumers.
      • Easy availability of finance.
    • THREATS:
      • Higher import duties on raw materials
      • Cheap imports from Singapore, China and other Asian countries.
    07/10/10 Sales Forecast & Demand Analysis of CTV's
  • 14. Market Structure
    • Oligopolistic in nature, with a few features of monopolistic competition
    • Few dominant players exist
    • Non-price competition
    • High R&D costs
    • Product Differentiation
    07/10/10 Sales Forecast & Demand Analysis of CTV's
  • 15.
    • No cartel formation
    • No price leadership per se
    • Rival Consciousness
    • Price war under the camouflage of technology
    • Difficulty in entry
    • The Herfindahl Index of concentration is 0.092 for the year 2007-08 (dispersed market share & low concentration)
    07/10/10 Sales Forecast & Demand Analysis of CTV's
  • 16. Dominant Players
    • Sony
    • Samsung
    • LG
    • Onida
    • Sansui
    • Panasonic
    07/10/10 Sales Forecast & Demand Analysis of CTV's
  • 17. Sales Data of Samsung (in crores) 07/10/10 Sales Forecast & Demand Analysis of CTV's YEAR PERIOD SALES 1995 1 83.7 1996 2 92.7 1997 3 96.1 1998 4 72.0 1999 5 93.5 2000 6 119.5 2001 7 98.7 2002 8 116.8 2003 9 101.7 2004 10 121.7 2005 11 140.9 2006 12 158.9 2007 13 174.2
  • 18. Sales Forecasting
    • We took the data up to 2005, and derived the trend projection equation for the subsequent years.
    • Using the constant rate of change, we get:
      • The intercept is: 75.3600
      • The constant rate of change is: 4.6732
    07/10/10 Sales Forecast & Demand Analysis of CTV's
  • 19.
    • Forecasted Values:
            • Actual
      • Projected Sales for 2006: Rs 131.44 (158.9)
      • Projected Sales for 2007: Rs 136.11 (174.2)
      • Projected Sales for 2008: Rs 140.78
      • Projected Sales for 2009: Rs 145.46
    • Since there is considerable difference between the actual and forecasted values for 2005 and 2006, we assume that there are seasonal fluctuations, which may cause forecasting errors.
    07/10/10 Sales Forecast & Demand Analysis of CTV's
  • 20. Following Ratio-to-Trend Approach
    • For 2005:
    • Actual/Predicted = 158.9/131.44
    • = 1.21
    • For 2006:
    • Actual/Predicted = 174.2/136.11
    • = 1.28
    • Average ratio = (1.28+1.21)/2
    • = 1.25
    07/10/10 Sales Forecast & Demand Analysis of CTV's
  • 21. Adjusted Forecast
    • For 2008
    • adjusted forecast=1.25 x 140.78
    • = 176 cr
    • For 2009:
    • adjusted forecast= 1.25 x 145.46
    • = 182 cr
    07/10/10 Sales Forecast & Demand Analysis of CTV's
  • 22. Trend Projection- % Growth Rate
    • By using the percentage growth rate forecasting model, we get:
      • The intercept is: 77.9177
      • The constant percentage rate of change is: 4.543
    07/10/10 Sales Forecast & Demand Analysis of CTV's
  • 23.
    • Forecasted Values:
            • Actual
      • Projected Sales for 2006: Rs 132.80 (158.9)
      • Projected Sales for 2007: Rs 138.83 (174.2)
      • Projected Sales for 2008: Rs 145.14
      • Projected Sales for 2009: Rs 151.74
    • Since there is considerable difference between the actual and forecasted values for 2005 and 2006, we assume that there are seasonal fluctuations, which may cause forecasting errors.
    07/10/10 Sales Forecast & Demand Analysis of CTV's
  • 24. Following Ratio-to-Trend Approach
    • For 2005:
    • Actual/Predicted = 158.9/132.80
    • = 1.20
    • For 2006:
    • Actual/Predicted = 174.2/138.83
    • = 1.25
    • Average ratio = (1.20+1.25)/2
    • = 1.23
    07/10/10 Sales Forecast & Demand Analysis of CTV's
  • 25. Adjusted Forecast
    • For 2008
    • adjusted forecast=1.23 x 145.14
    • = 178.5 cr
    • For 2009:
    • adjusted forecast= 1.23 x 151.74
    • = 186.6 cr
    07/10/10 Sales Forecast & Demand Analysis of CTV's
  • 26. Exponential Smoothing 07/10/10 Sales Forecast & Demand Analysis of CTV's YEAR PERIOD SALES FORECAST 1995 1 83.7 83.7 1996 2 92.7 83.7 1997 3 96.1 88.74 1998 4 72.0 92.86 1999 5 93.5 89.17 2000 6 119.5 88.07 2001 7 98.7 105.67 2002 8 116.8 101.77 2003 9 101.7 110.19 2004 10 121.7 105.43 2005 11 140.9 114.54 2006 12 158.9 139.24 2007 13 174.2 157.32
  • 27.
    • The smoothing constant which minimizes the sum of squared deviations is 0.90
    • The forecasted value for the year 2008 is 172.85 cr
    • The advantage of this method over trend projection is that more weight is given to recent values.
    07/10/10 Sales Forecast & Demand Analysis of CTV's
  • 28. Survey Results 07/10/10 Sales Forecast & Demand Analysis of CTV's
  • 29. 07/10/10 Sales Forecast & Demand Analysis of CTV's
  • 30. 07/10/10 Sales Forecast & Demand Analysis of CTV's
  • 31. 07/10/10 Sales Forecast & Demand Analysis of CTV's
  • 32. 07/10/10 Sales Forecast & Demand Analysis of CTV's
  • 33. Survey Analysis
    • Of all the given factors affecting the demand and buying behavior of CTV’s, the most weightage is given to:
      • Price
      • Product Attributes & Service Issues
      • Price of Close Substitutes
    • Factors such as proximity to dealer, recommendations etc are given less preference.
    07/10/10 Sales Forecast & Demand Analysis of CTV's
  • 34. References
    • http://www.samsung.com/
    • http://www.naukrihub.com/
    • http://info.shine.com/consumer_durables_india.htm
    • http://www.ibef.org/download/durables.pdf
    • http://www.ibef.org/download/samsung.pdf
    • http://ibef.org/artdisplay.aspx?cat_id=447&art_id=6822
    • Managerial Economics- Peterson & Lewis
    • Modern Macro Economics- H. L. Ahuja
    07/10/10 Sales Forecast & Demand Analysis of CTV's
  • 35. THANK YOU 07/10/10 Sales Forecast & Demand Analysis of CTV's