Sales Forecasting & Demand Analysis Of Ct Vs In India

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Sales Forecasting & Demand Analysis of CTV\'s in India

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Sales Forecasting & Demand Analysis Of Ct Vs In India

  1. 1. SALES FORECASTING FOR CTV’s IN INDIA <ul><li>Submitted By: </li></ul><ul><li>Group # 3, Section A </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Khagesh Agarwal </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Kaveesh Joshi </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Deepesh Bansal </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Sulabh Jain </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Anubha Jain </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Hina Srivstava </li></ul></ul>
  2. 2. Research Methodology <ul><li>Sample size taken : 50 </li></ul><ul><li>Location : Delhi and NCR </li></ul><ul><li>Primary data : Questionnaires filled by the sample </li></ul><ul><li>Secondary data : Internet (Samsung Website) </li></ul>07/10/10 Sales Forecast & Demand Analysis of CTV's
  3. 3. contd… <ul><li>A questionnaire related to the attributes of CTV was devised, and were rated on a 5-point Likert scale. </li></ul><ul><li>The sampling size includes both male and female users from different occupation, age, and income groups. </li></ul>07/10/10 Sales Forecast & Demand Analysis of CTV's
  4. 4. INTRODUCTION <ul><li>Consumer demand is highly unstable. </li></ul><ul><li>Increasing competition </li></ul><ul><li>Complexity of competition </li></ul><ul><li>Behavioral complexities </li></ul><ul><li>Changing technology </li></ul><ul><li>Rural-Urban migration </li></ul>07/10/10 Sales Forecast & Demand Analysis of CTV's
  5. 5. Consumer Durable Industry <ul><li>Competition increased post IPR 1991. </li></ul><ul><li>Foreign players like Sony, Aiwa, LG, Samsung etc poured their products in India. </li></ul><ul><li>Consistently growing at a substantial rate. </li></ul>07/10/10 Sales Forecast & Demand Analysis of CTV's
  6. 6. Key Drivers <ul><li>Rising disposable income </li></ul><ul><li>Rise in the living standards and per capita income. </li></ul><ul><li>Easy access to consumer finance </li></ul><ul><li>Wide variety of choices </li></ul><ul><li>Technological advancements </li></ul><ul><li>Boom in retail and real estate industry </li></ul><ul><li>Changing consumer aesthetics </li></ul><ul><li>Innovative advertisement </li></ul>07/10/10 Sales Forecast & Demand Analysis of CTV's
  7. 7. Industry Classification <ul><li>Consumer Durable Industry </li></ul><ul><li>Consumer Electronics Consumer Appliances </li></ul><ul><li> White Goods Brown Goods </li></ul>07/10/10 Sales Forecast & Demand Analysis of CTV's
  8. 8. Industry size, growth and trends <ul><li>Growth in FY08 was 8.5% against 11.5% during the previous fiscal. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Fall in GDP growth rate. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Rising input costs. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Changing demand patterns. </li></ul></ul>07/10/10 Sales Forecast & Demand Analysis of CTV's
  9. 9. Volume Share-Major consumer durables Source: http://www.ficci.org/consumer_dur_ind.htm 07/10/10 Sales Forecast & Demand Analysis of CTV's
  10. 10. Source: http://www.ficci.org/consumer_dur_ind.htm 07/10/10 Sales Forecast & Demand Analysis of CTV's
  11. 11. Television Sets : Growth in Sales Source: http://www.ficci.org/consumer_dur_ind.htm 07/10/10 Sales Forecast & Demand Analysis of CTV's
  12. 12. SWOT Analysis <ul><li>STRENGTHS: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Presence of established distribution networks in both urban and rural areas. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Presence of well known brands. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>In recent years, organized sector has increased its share in the market vis a vis the unorganized sector.  </li></ul></ul><ul><li>WEAKNESSES: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Demand is seasonal and is high during festive season. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Demand is dependent on good monsoons. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Poor government spending on infrastructure. </li></ul></ul>07/10/10 Sales Forecast & Demand Analysis of CTV's
  13. 13. <ul><li>OPPURTUNITIES: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>In India, the penetration level of white goods is lower as compared to other developing countries. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Unexploited rural market. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Rapid urbanization. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Increase in income levels, i.e. increase in purchasing power of consumers. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Easy availability of finance. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>THREATS: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Higher import duties on raw materials </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Cheap imports from Singapore, China and other Asian countries. </li></ul></ul>07/10/10 Sales Forecast & Demand Analysis of CTV's
  14. 14. Market Structure <ul><li>Oligopolistic in nature, with a few features of monopolistic competition </li></ul><ul><li>Few dominant players exist </li></ul><ul><li>Non-price competition </li></ul><ul><li>High R&D costs </li></ul><ul><li>Product Differentiation </li></ul>07/10/10 Sales Forecast & Demand Analysis of CTV's
  15. 15. <ul><li>No cartel formation </li></ul><ul><li>No price leadership per se </li></ul><ul><li>Rival Consciousness </li></ul><ul><li>Price war under the camouflage of technology </li></ul><ul><li>Difficulty in entry </li></ul><ul><li>The Herfindahl Index of concentration is 0.092 for the year 2007-08 (dispersed market share & low concentration) </li></ul>07/10/10 Sales Forecast & Demand Analysis of CTV's
  16. 16. Dominant Players <ul><li>Sony </li></ul><ul><li>Samsung </li></ul><ul><li>LG </li></ul><ul><li>Onida </li></ul><ul><li>Sansui </li></ul><ul><li>Panasonic </li></ul>07/10/10 Sales Forecast & Demand Analysis of CTV's
  17. 17. Sales Data of Samsung (in crores) 07/10/10 Sales Forecast & Demand Analysis of CTV's YEAR PERIOD SALES 1995 1 83.7 1996 2 92.7 1997 3 96.1 1998 4 72.0 1999 5 93.5 2000 6 119.5 2001 7 98.7 2002 8 116.8 2003 9 101.7 2004 10 121.7 2005 11 140.9 2006 12 158.9 2007 13 174.2
  18. 18. Sales Forecasting <ul><li>We took the data up to 2005, and derived the trend projection equation for the subsequent years. </li></ul><ul><li>Using the constant rate of change, we get: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>The intercept is: 75.3600 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The constant rate of change is: 4.6732 </li></ul></ul>07/10/10 Sales Forecast & Demand Analysis of CTV's
  19. 19. <ul><li>Forecasted Values: </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li> Actual </li></ul></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Projected Sales for 2006: Rs 131.44 (158.9) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Projected Sales for 2007: Rs 136.11 (174.2) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Projected Sales for 2008: Rs 140.78 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Projected Sales for 2009: Rs 145.46 </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Since there is considerable difference between the actual and forecasted values for 2005 and 2006, we assume that there are seasonal fluctuations, which may cause forecasting errors. </li></ul>07/10/10 Sales Forecast & Demand Analysis of CTV's
  20. 20. Following Ratio-to-Trend Approach <ul><li>For 2005: </li></ul><ul><li>Actual/Predicted = 158.9/131.44 </li></ul><ul><li> = 1.21 </li></ul><ul><li>For 2006: </li></ul><ul><li>Actual/Predicted = 174.2/136.11 </li></ul><ul><li> = 1.28 </li></ul><ul><li>Average ratio = (1.28+1.21)/2 </li></ul><ul><li>= 1.25 </li></ul>07/10/10 Sales Forecast & Demand Analysis of CTV's
  21. 21. Adjusted Forecast <ul><li>For 2008 </li></ul><ul><li>adjusted forecast=1.25 x 140.78 </li></ul><ul><li>= 176 cr </li></ul><ul><li>For 2009: </li></ul><ul><li>adjusted forecast= 1.25 x 145.46 </li></ul><ul><li>= 182 cr </li></ul>07/10/10 Sales Forecast & Demand Analysis of CTV's
  22. 22. Trend Projection- % Growth Rate <ul><li>By using the percentage growth rate forecasting model, we get: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>The intercept is: 77.9177 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The constant percentage rate of change is: 4.543 </li></ul></ul>07/10/10 Sales Forecast & Demand Analysis of CTV's
  23. 23. <ul><li>Forecasted Values: </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li> Actual </li></ul></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Projected Sales for 2006: Rs 132.80 (158.9) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Projected Sales for 2007: Rs 138.83 (174.2) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Projected Sales for 2008: Rs 145.14 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Projected Sales for 2009: Rs 151.74 </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Since there is considerable difference between the actual and forecasted values for 2005 and 2006, we assume that there are seasonal fluctuations, which may cause forecasting errors. </li></ul>07/10/10 Sales Forecast & Demand Analysis of CTV's
  24. 24. Following Ratio-to-Trend Approach <ul><li>For 2005: </li></ul><ul><li>Actual/Predicted = 158.9/132.80 </li></ul><ul><li> = 1.20 </li></ul><ul><li>For 2006: </li></ul><ul><li>Actual/Predicted = 174.2/138.83 </li></ul><ul><li> = 1.25 </li></ul><ul><li>Average ratio = (1.20+1.25)/2 </li></ul><ul><li>= 1.23 </li></ul>07/10/10 Sales Forecast & Demand Analysis of CTV's
  25. 25. Adjusted Forecast <ul><li>For 2008 </li></ul><ul><li>adjusted forecast=1.23 x 145.14 </li></ul><ul><li>= 178.5 cr </li></ul><ul><li>For 2009: </li></ul><ul><li>adjusted forecast= 1.23 x 151.74 </li></ul><ul><li>= 186.6 cr </li></ul>07/10/10 Sales Forecast & Demand Analysis of CTV's
  26. 26. Exponential Smoothing 07/10/10 Sales Forecast & Demand Analysis of CTV's YEAR PERIOD SALES FORECAST 1995 1 83.7 83.7 1996 2 92.7 83.7 1997 3 96.1 88.74 1998 4 72.0 92.86 1999 5 93.5 89.17 2000 6 119.5 88.07 2001 7 98.7 105.67 2002 8 116.8 101.77 2003 9 101.7 110.19 2004 10 121.7 105.43 2005 11 140.9 114.54 2006 12 158.9 139.24 2007 13 174.2 157.32
  27. 27. <ul><li>The smoothing constant which minimizes the sum of squared deviations is 0.90 </li></ul><ul><li>The forecasted value for the year 2008 is 172.85 cr </li></ul><ul><li>The advantage of this method over trend projection is that more weight is given to recent values. </li></ul>07/10/10 Sales Forecast & Demand Analysis of CTV's
  28. 28. Survey Results 07/10/10 Sales Forecast & Demand Analysis of CTV's
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  32. 32. 07/10/10 Sales Forecast & Demand Analysis of CTV's
  33. 33. Survey Analysis <ul><li>Of all the given factors affecting the demand and buying behavior of CTV’s, the most weightage is given to: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Price </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Product Attributes & Service Issues </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Price of Close Substitutes </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Factors such as proximity to dealer, recommendations etc are given less preference. </li></ul>07/10/10 Sales Forecast & Demand Analysis of CTV's
  34. 34. References <ul><li>http://www.samsung.com/ </li></ul><ul><li>http://www.naukrihub.com/ </li></ul><ul><li>http://info.shine.com/consumer_durables_india.htm </li></ul><ul><li>http://www.ibef.org/download/durables.pdf </li></ul><ul><li>http://www.ibef.org/download/samsung.pdf </li></ul><ul><li>http://ibef.org/artdisplay.aspx?cat_id=447&art_id=6822 </li></ul><ul><li>Managerial Economics- Peterson & Lewis </li></ul><ul><li>Modern Macro Economics- H. L. Ahuja </li></ul>07/10/10 Sales Forecast & Demand Analysis of CTV's
  35. 35. THANK YOU 07/10/10 Sales Forecast & Demand Analysis of CTV's

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