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Country Analysis  India With Special Reference To The Automobile Sector
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Country Analysis India With Special Reference To The Automobile Sector

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A presentation covering the Indian Automobile Sector

A presentation covering the Indian Automobile Sector

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  • Ernst & Young analysis, passenger vehicle sales in the country will grow at a CAGR of 12 per cent to touch 3.75 million units by 2014 as against 1.89 million units at the end of 2008-09
  • Two wheelers - Majority of exports are to Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Bhutan and Nepal• PV - Exports are made to South America, Africa, Europe, Latin America and the Middle East.CV - Major portion of the exports are to Sri Lanka, Gulf countries and Africa 3 Wheelers Auto exports to Sri Lanka, Egypt, Nepal, Bangladesh among other countries

Country Analysis  India With Special Reference To The Automobile Sector Country Analysis India With Special Reference To The Automobile Sector Presentation Transcript

  • COUNTRY ANALYSIS- India
    With special reference to the Automobile Industry
    KhageshAgarwal (05/09)
    SaurabhAgarwal (33/09)
    Anubha Jain (111/09)
    Sulabh Jain (147/09)
    DeepeshBansal (153/09)
  • Country Analysis
    To anticipate and foster changes in the business environment is a prerequisite to success
    Building a holistic picture that integrates:
  • Strategy
    National strategy is reflected in the goals and policies of the decision maker
    It can be deduced from the govt. actions and statements
  • Policies:
    govt. actions aimed towards achievement of national goals
    influence resource mobilization and allocation
    the form of the market
    country‘s external orientation (inward or outward)
  • Context
    Focuses on the national resources, the players and the rules of the game.
    As a country analyst, we must identify:
    • scarcity/abundance
    • remuneration
    • elasticity of demand/supply
    of the resources
  • Players in the game:
    Bring about transformation of resources
    Firms, government organizations, NGO’s and social groups
  • Rules of the game:
    Understanding the code of conduct
    Defining what is right/wrong
    Can be both formal and informal
    International Dimension:
    Resolving conflicts arising of cross-cultural dimensions
    Knowledge of policies towards outside world
    Outside of forces that influence our policies
  • Policy evaluation
    Examining inter-relationships between components
    Benchmarking performance against standards
    Evaluate relationships between policies and national development
    The effect of policy on
    resource mobilization
    resource allocation across competing sectors
    efficiency of resource mobilization
  • INDIACountry analysis
  • Source: http://www.livemint.com
  • [Auto Industry Analysis]
  • Indian Auto Industry
    Facts
    • Second Largest two wheeler manufacturer in the world
    • Largest tractor and three wheeler manufacturers in the world
    • Fourth largest Commercial vehicle market in the world
    • Eleventh largest passenger car market in the world
    Growth Potential
    • Can become World’s third largest automobile market in 2030.
    • By 2016, Automotive sector can DOUBLE its percentage contribution to GDP from current levels of 5% (US$50 billion) to 10% ($180 billion).
    Trends
    • Growth of exports of 32.8 % FY 2008-09.
    • Output of commercial vehicles has grown 2.8 times compared to the 2.2 times increase in passenger cars
    • For every passenger car turned out, there are almost 7 two-wheelers produced
  • The Growth Journey
  • Automotive Companies in India
    Major Indian Companies
    Major Multi-national companies
  • The Key PlayerS
    Passenger vehicle
    Twowheeler
  • Booming Indian Economy
  • Key Growth Drivers
  • Auto Industry Numbers
    Overall Market
    Over all Production increased from 10.85 million vehicles in 2007-08 to 11.17 million vehicles in 2008-09
    Passenger vehicles increased marginally from 1.77 million to 1.83 million
    Two-wheelers increased from 8.02 million to 8.41 million
    Domestic Market
     Vehicles sold including PV,CV 2W and 3W in 2008-09 was 9.72 million as compared to 9.65 million in 2007-08.
    Exports
    Sales increased from 1.23mn units in 2007-08 to 1.53 million units in 2008-09
    As per the Automotive Mission Plan (AMP) 2006-2016 total turnover of the automotive industry in India would be in the order of US$ 122 billion-159 billion in 2016
  • Category wise numbers
    Two Wheeler
    Dominated by Motorcycles 80% , Scooters 14% Mopeds 6%
    Domestic - 7.25mn units . Hero Honda 42% & Bajaj 27% share CAGR – 9.5%
    Exports 819000 units (07-08) . Bajaj Auto 59% TVS 17% share CAGR – 41%
    Passenger Vehicles
    Dominated by Cars 78% , MUV/SUV 22%
    Domestic – 1.5mn units Maruti-46% Tata-15% Hyundai 14% CAGR -14.8%
    Exports - 217000 units (07-08) Maruti 66% Hyundai 24% CAGR – 26%
    Dominated by M&HCV – Goods 48% Passenger 38% , Rest by LCV-4%
    Domestic – 487 thousand units , Tata-62% Ashok Leyland -15% CAGR- 22%
    Exports – 59 thousand units, Tata 67% Ashok Leyland 12% CAGR -30.6%
    Commercial Vehicles
    Three Wheeler
    Dominated by Passenger Carriers with 64% share , Goods Carrier -36%
    Domestic – 365 thousand units , Bajaj -42% Piaggio-41% CAGR-10.5%
    Export – 141 thousand units , Bajaj -97% CAGR -44.5%
  • The Indian Auto Components Market
    Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs)
    Replacement Parts Production and Distribution : e.g. Air filters, oil filers and replacement lights
    Rubber Fabrication : tyres, hoses, belts etc.
    Estimated component market size is US$ 6.7 bn
    The exports of auto components industry has grown at a rate of nearly 30 per cent CAGR over the last four years.
  • Political - Legal Factors
    Stunted Economic Growth
    Boosted Economic Growth
    1 year
    • 6% cut in CENVAT, abolition of surcharge on income tax.
    • Abolition of FBT, Reduction of excise duty on big cars.
    • Encourage Urban Fleet Modernization
    1 year
    • Differential excise duty for small and big cars.
    • Customs duty for imported cars including hybrid cars.
    • Excise duty cut only for petrol driven trucks
    • 1-5 Years - Providing Special Auto-component Parks (SAP) and Special Economic Zones (SEZ) as in IT . Negative list of items and rules of origin in FTAs / RTAs. (ASEAN Free Trade Agreement)
    - SIAM recommended the government on extending excise and sales tax benefits to customers who opt for scrappage of their old vehicles
    1-5 Years
    • Existing Complex labor laws( 45 Central acts and 16 associated rules)
    • Not implementing country wide VAT
    • Ambiguous policy in land acquisition for green field projects
    5-10 Years
    • Poor execution of Infrastructure investments. (Construction of Highways of 16km per day against the target of 32 km per day)
    • Absence of National Auto fuel Policy (NAFP)
    5-10 Years
    • Effective Implementation and Uniform enforcement of GST
    • Maintain a three tier tariff structure for raw materials, intermediate goods, finished goods.
    • Revamp WTO compatible export promotional schemes like DEPB, EOU and EPCG schemes
    • AMP Plan 2006-16 set by govt
  • Economic Factors
    1 year
    1-5 year
    5-10 years
    • Increased access to credit and lower interest loans
    • Investment in Infrastructure spending can boost the commercial vehicles segment.
    • Growing working population (441 million people in 2015/16)
    • Upward migration of household income levels (600 million people have annual income of more than $10,200)
    • Middle class expanding by 30 - 40 million every year
    Can propel growth
  • Economic Factors
    1 year
    5-10 years
    1-5 year
    • Impact of delayed monsoon (85% of normal, subsequent impact on paddy cultivation) on rural demand.
    • Non- availability of supplier base with demanded capability (Quality and Quantity).
    • Poor execution of Infrastructure investments. (Construction of Highways of 16km per day against the target of 32 km per day)
    • Increase in crude oil price($ 35/barrel to $ 70/ barrel in 14 months).
    • Non-availability of Key raw material (like Steel) at cheap price.
    • Possible increase of interest rates (by 2-2.5% BPLR) because of planned government borrowing.
    Can Stunt Growth
  • Social Factors
    Rapid Urbanization of semi urban regions
    Rising aspirational levels. Improvement in living standards of middle class
    Increased spending on Fashion & lifestyle comforts.
    Seeking “Value for money”- consumer behavior
    Increasing customer emphasis on aesthetics and comfort.
    A perfect marriage of rise in disposable income and demographic dividend (From US$ 556 per annum US$ 1150 by 2015)
  • Technological Factors
  • India as a Testing Hub : NATRIP
  • India : A Developing Hub for Compact Cars
    • Compact cars account for 70% of the total car market.
    • Compact car sales increasing at about 20% each year
    • Excise duty on small cars slashed from 24% to 12% in last three years
    • Tata Motors :
    Tata Nano became a big success gaining worldwide popularity with Tata planning to increase capacity
    • Toyota :
    • Toyota Kirloskar motors planning to launch its own small car in India by 2011
    • General Motors :
    • New Capacity to manufacture small cars at its Talegaon, Maharashtra plant with 80% local inputs.
    • Brought in Spark small car in 2007
    • Nissan-Renault :
    • 50:50 JV, to make 400,000 cars a year with an investment of over US $ 1 billion.
    • Coming up with the $2500 car to compete with Tata Nano in 2011
    • VW :
    • Investing 400 million euro in a new plant in Pune. Operations are to start in second
    half of 2009.
    • Maruti Suzuki :
    • New car plant to make 250,000 cars per annum (total 800,000 cars/annum)
    • 10 new Component JVs to support new Diesel Engine Plant.
    • Hyundai :
    Already a big player in the small car segment
    • Increase capacity to 600,000 cars per annum over next 1 year.
    • Nissan :
    • Micra, UK  India
    • Four more models in India, involving a total investment of over Rs 2,000 crore. 
    • Ford :
    • Plans to unveil its small car with 1.2 ltr engine by 2010
    • Honda :
    • Investing US $ 250 million in a new plant in Rajasthan with capacity of 60,000 car per year (First car to roll out in 2009).
  • Break through future trends
    • India will be a Automotive hub, led by small cars and auto component domains
    • Export of automotive components to ASEAN,BRIC,EU and USA for OEMs as well as Aftermarket
    • Booming Automobiles (Particularly cars) second sales and remodeling
    • Increased deployment of IT-enabled Automobile support systems like GPS,ABS,ASR and Safety systems
    .
    • Quality Certification (Deming, Six Sigma,TQM,TS16949) amongst suppliers have attained critical mass and the entire market will follow to get quality certifications.
    • Will be a hub for optimal cost, high quality vehicular testing and terrain data acquisition services
    • Alternate fuel (Bio fuel, electricity) and environment friendly green engines (Bharat emission norms)
    • Favorable Demographics
    • Improving income curve
    • Reducing interest rates
    • Cost Pressure
    • High Expectations
    • Inadequate Infrastructure Development
    KEY CHALLENGES
    KEY ENABLERS
    Key Focus Areas
    • Product development( includes collaboration, new products developed)
    • Vendor base (quality of vendors, skill levels , size etc.)
    • Manufacturing capability( quality levels, productivity & skill levels, technology )
    • Service levels
    • Supply chain
    • Labor law
    • Leverage IT
    Key Features of Future Auto Policy
    • ForeignDirectInvestment
    • Importtariff
    • Incentivesfor Research and Development (R&D)
    • EnvironmentalAspects
    • Other measures
  • References
    www.acmainfo.com
    www.wikipedia.org
    www.siamindia.com
    www.ibef.org
    Ernst & Young Auto Track
    www.economywatch.com
    www.business-standard.com
    The Economic Times
    Hindu Business Line
    www.automobileindia.com
    automobiles.mapsofindia.com
    www.livemint.com
  • THANK
    YOU