Soy market outlook in Mercosur | 2012/13

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Soy market outlook in Mercosur | 2012/13

  1. 1. i by Anderson Galvão Major trends of the oilseeds and vegetable oils markets in South America Istanbul, Turkey October, 2012 Brazil as the cradle of price formation in 2012Copyright © Céleres® 2011. Todos os direitos reservados. Toda a informação contida neste documento é de propriedade intelectual da © Céleres--Your Agribusiness Intelligence. © Céleres 2011. Todos os direitos reservados. Toda a informação contida neste documento é de propriedade intelectual da Céleres® Your Agribusiness Intelligence.
  2. 2. Oilseeds in Mercosul Soybean is the most relevant and will increase its importanceKey oilseeds production in 2012/13 Key vegetable oils production in 2012/13 Soybean Rapeseed Sunflowerseed Soybean Rapeseed Sunflower Other Production Other Production500 200 180 20 453,1 34.6% of world production 17,8450 180 160 154,3 18 157,0400 98,8 160 1,7 16 140350 140 14 34,8 120 75,1300 120 12 61,3 100250 100 10 80200 80 13,1 8 148,3 15,3 60150 60 23,8 6 258,1 40100 40 4 20 42,3 50 20 2 0 0 0 0 World Mercosul World MercosulSource: USDA/SAGPyA/CÉLERES® | Elaboration: CÉLERES® | Values in million metric tons Sep/12 Copyright © Céleres® 2011. Todos os direitos reservados. Toda a informação contida neste documento é de propriedade intelectual da Céleres® - Your Agribusiness Intelligence. Page 2/14
  3. 3. World oilseeds market will became even more dependent on Mercosul humors, trends and risks of its soybean productionSoybean world production300 261,0 264,3 260,5 245,1250 236,0 215,8 220,7 219,5 211,6200 91,4 90,6 73,3 Others150 87,0 72,9 83,2 USA 85,0 83,5 80,7 Mercosul100 World 132,0 135,6 144,4 50 101,8 113,4 113,8 114,0 98,0 96,6 0 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 55.4% of world 60% of world soybean production soybean output in 5 in 2012/13 years?Source: USDA/SAGPyA/CÉLERES® | Elaboration: CÉLERES® | Values in million metric tons Sep/12 Copyright © Céleres® 2011. Todos os direitos reservados. Toda a informação contida neste documento é de propriedade intelectual da Céleres® - Your Agribusiness Intelligence. Page 3/14
  4. 4. Biotechnology became the technological standard among local farmersBiotech adoption rates in Mercosul countries | Soybean100% 90% 80% 70% 07/08 60% 08/09 50% 09/10 10/11 40% 11/12 30% 12/13 p 20% 10% 0% Brazil Argentina Paraguay Uruguay Bolívia Biotech soybean But there are local became the standard suppliers of non GM in Mercosul productSource: CÉLERES® | Elaboration: CÉLERES® | Values in % of total soybean acreage in each crop season Sep/12 Copyright © Céleres® 2011. Todos os direitos reservados. Toda a informação contida neste documento é de propriedade intelectual da Céleres® - Your Agribusiness Intelligence. Page 4/14
  5. 5. With regular weather condition, Brazilian growers could plant almost 28 million hectaresBrazilian soybean supply and demand balance 12/13 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 -1s Avg. +1s Area (million ha) 21,3 23,5 22,3 20,7 21,3 21,5 23,3 24,1 25,1 26,5 27,1 27,5 Yield (t/ha) 2,4 2,3 2,5 2,8 2,8 2,7 2,9 3,1 2,6 3,0 3,0 3,0 Beg. stock 2,9 2,8 1,2 1,0 2,3 2,9 0,5 2,3 4,8 2,3 2,3 2,3 Production 51,2 53,1 54,9 57,8 59,7 58,2 68,5 74,9 66,3 80,6 82,5 83,6 Imports 0,3 0,4 0,0 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,1 1,0 0,1 0,1 0,1Supply, total 54,4 56,3 56,2 58,9 62,1 61,2 69,1 77,3 72,1 83,0 84,9 86,1 Crushing 29,3 29,9 27,5 30,1 31,8 29,3 34,5 36,3 34,8 33,8 36,0 37,0 Other uses 3,0 2,8 2,7 2,8 2,8 2,8 3,2 3,3 3,4 3,1 3,2 3,3 Dom. use 32,3 32,7 30,2 32,9 34,6 32,1 37,7 39,6 38,2 36,9 39,2 40,3 Exports 19,2 22,4 25,0 23,7 24,5 28,6 29,1 33,0 31,6 36,0 38,0 39,0Demand, total 51,5 55,1 55,2 56,6 59,1 60,7 66,8 72,6 69,8 72,9 77,2 79,3End stocks 2,8 1,2 1,0 2,3 2,9 0,5 2,3 4,8 2,3 10,1 7,7 6,8Stock/Demand 5,5% 2,2% 1,8% 4,0% 5,0% 0,8% 3,5% 6,6% 3,3% 13,9% 10,0% 8,5%Source: CÉLERES®/ABIOVE/SECEX | Elaboration and projections: CÉLERES®Copyright © Céleres® 2011. Todos os direitos reservados. Toda a informação contida neste documento é de propriedade intelectual da Céleres® - Your Agribusiness Intelligence. Page 5/14
  6. 6. But a huge increase in planted area will not, necessarily, means a huge increase on the final soybean outputSoybean yield in Brazil and the influence of new areas expansion Old areas/total area Soybean yield 100,0% 3,2 Share of old areas ver total soybean planted area 90,0% 3,0 Brazilian soybean yield (t/ha) 80,0% 2,8 70,0% 2,6 60,0% 2,4 50,0% 2,2 40,0% 2,0 90/91 96/97 01/02 06/07 11/12Source:CÉLERES® based on own data and CONAB. | Note: Old areas (> 5 years with agriculture), calculated since the annual growth in the planted area since 1976/77 crop season Copyright © Céleres® 2011. Todos os direitos reservados. Toda a informação contida neste documento é de propriedade intelectual da Céleres® - Your Agribusiness Intelligence. Page 6/14
  7. 7. Operational margin for soybean production in Brazil Even in the far west regions profits is going to be one of the highest in the recent years Profitability with soybean production in Brazil | Mato Grosso stateValues in US$ per hectare Dct costs Margin Revenue R$ 2.205,4 R$ 2.260,0 R$ 2.021,2 R$ 1.965,2 R$ 1.617,0 R$ 1.613,7 R$ 1.551,8 R$ 1.594,0 R$ 1.457,3 R$ 1.388,5 R$ 1.356,3 R$ 1.403,8 R$ 1.217,7 R$ 1.238,8 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 fGross margin in US$ per hectare $486,7 $429,1 $312,8 $206,0 $213,8 $171,0 $88,7 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 fSource: CÉLERES® | Elaboration: CÉLERES® | Note: references values for Mato Grosso state Copyright © Céleres® 2011. Todos os direitos reservados. Toda a informação contida neste documento é de propriedade intelectual da Céleres® - Your Agribusiness Intelligence. Page 7/14
  8. 8. Logistic flow in Brazil Soybean production is a key driver for logistics flow growth Current 2023Source: APROSOJA Elaboration: CÉLERES®Copyright © Céleres® 2011. Todos os direitos reservados. Toda a informação contida neste documento é de propriedade intelectual da Céleres® - Your Agribusiness Intelligence. Page 8/14
  9. 9. Logistic flow in Brazil Infrastructure is the main bottleneck for a smooth growth in the coming years Brazilian main agricultural bulk exports, in million metric tones 160,0 Million metric tones 143,3 140,0 114,5 120,0 100,0 Sugar, raw 84,5 Sugar, refined 80,0 66,5 Corn 60,0 Soy, meal 44,6 Soy, beans 40,0 20,6 Total 20,0 0,0 1996 2002 2007 2011 2012 2015 2021 Projeção A 34% increase in the volume only in the There are almost 70 million tons expected last four years, but with almost the same increase for the next ten year and the infrastructure infrastructure urges for improvementSource: SECEX/CÉLERES | Projections and elaboration: CÉLERES® Copyright © Céleres® 2011. Todos os direitos reservados. Toda a informação contida neste documento é de propriedade intelectual da Céleres® - Your Agribusiness Intelligence. Page 9/14
  10. 10. Argentina has facing an unstable production trend due to weather problems and exhaustion of current technologies Soybean production in Argentina Harvested area (million ha) Production (million t)60,050,040,0 39,930,0 31,920,010,0 0,0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Yield (actual) Yield (trend)3,53,02,52,0Source: SAGPyA/ECEX/CÉLERES | Projections and elaboration: CÉLERES®Copyright © Céleres® 2011. Todos os direitos reservados. Toda a informação contida neste documento é de propriedade intelectual da Céleres® - Your Agribusiness Intelligence. Page 10/14
  11. 11. If realized, soybean out growth in Mercosul will off set the loses seem in the USA crop season Main figures for 2012/13 crop season 168.0 million t 86.3 million t 55.8 million t 83,31 72,27 41,47 39,85 35,00 13,50 8,13 5,40 2,32 1,93 2,63 2,28 1,86 0,04 0,04 Paraguay Uruguay Paraguay Uruguay Paraguay Uruguay Argentina Argentina Argentina Brazil Brazil Brazil Bolivia Bolivia Bolivia Supply, total Domestic consumption ExportsSource: USDA/SAGPyA/CÉLERES® | Elaboration: CÉLERES® | Values in million metric tons Sep/12 Copyright © Céleres® 2011. Todos os direitos reservados. Toda a informação contida neste documento é de propriedade intelectual da Céleres® - Your Agribusiness Intelligence. Page 11/14
  12. 12. If realized, soybean out growth in Mercosul will off set the loses seem in the USA crop season Main changes from 2011/12 crop season +27.5 million t +7.3 million t +12.1 million t 13,90 9,50 7,00 5,70 3,69 3,77 2,05 2,30 1,30 1,11 1,00 1,01 0,11 0,30 0,30 Paraguay Uruguay Paraguay Uruguay Paraguay Uruguay Argentina Argentina Argentina Brazil Brazil Brazil Bolivia Bolivia Bolivia Supply, total Domestic consumption ExportsSource: USDA/SAGPyA/CÉLERES® | Elaboration: CÉLERES® | Values in million metric tons Sep/12 Copyright © Céleres® 2011. Todos os direitos reservados. Toda a informação contida neste documento é de propriedade intelectual da Céleres® - Your Agribusiness Intelligence. Page 12/14
  13. 13. Final remarks• Under regular weather conditions, Mercosul countries can off set the smaller soybean output in the USA in 2012/13• Specially from Brazil, it is very unlikely to achieve good yields this crop season as local growers are expanding over virgin land with low fertility• Increasing soybean production in Brazil will also result in more exportable supplies for winter corn (yet a bigger acreage than in the summer)• Brazil is, currently, a net importer of sunflower oil• Soybean production will be responsible for the key increase in the local oilseeds and vegetable oils production• The bulk of further growth will come from Brazil – through acreage expansion – as Argentina is reaching it’s maximum planting capacity (without competition with other crops)Source: CÉLERES®Copyright © Céleres® 2011. Todos os direitos reservados. Toda a informação contida neste documento é de propriedade intelectual da Céleres® - Your Agribusiness Intelligence. Page 13/14
  14. 14. Phones Céleres® – Your Agribusiness Intelligence +55 34 3229-1313 +55 34 3229-4949 1045 Jamil Tannús Street Uberlândia – Minas Gerais – Brazil CEP: 38411-114 www.celeres.com.br celeres@celeres.com.br Associated with Arcadia Member of ISAAA Affiliates International (Brussels, Belgium)Copyright © Céleres® 2011. Todos os direitos reservados. Toda a informação contida neste documento é de propriedade intelectual da Céleres® - Your Agribusiness Intelligence. Page 14/14

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