What in the world is going on?<br />Aaron Fyke<br />Founder and President<br />
Framework<br />Hot – Global warming due to greenhouse gases<br />Flat – Everyone else is getting richer<br />Crowded – And...
Percent Job Losses in Recessions<br />
Hot<br />
Today’s CO2 Concentration<br />After 45 More Years of current energy use patterns<br />600<br />500<br />400<br />300<br /...
Today’s CO2 Concentration<br />After 45 More Years of current energy use patterns<br />600<br />500<br />400<br />300<br /...
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies<br />
Feedback Loops – Tipping Points<br />At greater than 2°C average temperature increase, we risk unstoppable, runaway temper...
Flickr: DanielKHC<br />Flat<br />Flickr: Mark Austria<br />
The “Poor” are Getting Richer<br />300m Indian middle class becoming used to Western culture and consumption<br />China ca...
MTOe<br />
Crowded<br />Flickr: B℮n<br />
Resulting Trends<br />Higher Energy Prices and Volatility<br />Price on Carbon<br />Changing Consumer Preference<br />Incr...
Peak Oil – <br />Hubbert’s Prediction<br />Flickr: weatherjester<br />
US Oil Production<br />
World Oil Production<br />
World Oil Production<br />P2<br />P<br />P<br />Before Peak Oil<br />After Peak Oil<br />Supply Increases<br />Supply Decr...
Peak Oil - Actuals<br />Ex-OPEC and USSR<br />USA Peak – 1971<br />Hubbert Predicted – 1965-1970<br />Wikipedia<br />
Increased Price of Carbon<br />Flickr: davipt<br />
Price on Carbon<br />Baseline and Credit:<br />Kyoto – Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)<br />Allows Annex A countries to ...
Price on Carbon<br />
Price on Carbon<br />http://climateinteractive.org/<br />
Changing Consumer <br />Preference<br />
1 M Vehicles<br />
1 M Vehicles<br />
1 M Vehicles<br />US Gas Prices<br />$ 2009<br />
1 M Vehicles<br />US Gas Prices<br />$ 2009<br />Total US Hybrid Sales<br />
Cash for Clunkers, 2009<br />Edmunds.com – 2009 and 2006 vehicle models<br />
Increased Efficiency<br />
GE Evolution Locomotive<br />Has given Erie, Pennsylvania a trade surplus with China, Mexico and Brazil<br /><ul><li>10% l...
10% less fuel resulting in a $2.5m savings over its life (locomotive costs $4m)</li></li></ul><li>Boeing 787 Dreamliner<br...
Smart Grid<br />	"Our expectation is that this network will be 100 or 1,000 times larger than the Internet. If you think a...
Increased Use of Renewables<br />
Increased Use of Renewables<br />Saul Griffith, Makani Power:<br />Cannot be about “What is politically feasible”.<br />No...
Courtesy: Saul Griffith<br />
Courtesy: Saul Griffith<br />
Courtesy: Saul Griffith<br />
Courtesy: Saul Griffith<br />
Courtesy: Saul Griffith<br />
Courtesy: Saul Griffith<br />
Courtesy: Saul Griffith<br />
More People<br />Consuming More<br />With fewer resources<br />
Energy prices will remain high<br />To avoid runaway climate change, carbon will be priced<br />
Opportunities:<br />Energy efficiency<br />Addressing customers needs<br />Clean energy<br />
Opportunities:<br />Energy efficiency<br />Addressing customers needs<br />Clean energy<br />
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What in the world is going on web

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Transcript of "What in the world is going on web"

  1. 1. What in the world is going on?<br />Aaron Fyke<br />Founder and President<br />
  2. 2. Framework<br />Hot – Global warming due to greenhouse gases<br />Flat – Everyone else is getting richer<br />Crowded – And there are a lot more of us<br />
  3. 3. Percent Job Losses in Recessions<br />
  4. 4. Hot<br />
  5. 5.
  6. 6. Today’s CO2 Concentration<br />After 45 More Years of current energy use patterns<br />600<br />500<br />400<br />300<br />280<br />260<br />240<br />CO2 Concentration<br />CO2 [ppmv]<br />220<br />200<br />180<br />0 °C<br />Temp. in F°<br />Temp. in °C<br />-8 °C <br />Dan Miller – Climateplace.org<br />0<br />100,000<br />200,000<br />300,000<br />400,000<br />500,000<br />600,000<br />Age (yr BP)<br />
  7. 7. Today’s CO2 Concentration<br />After 45 More Years of current energy use patterns<br />600<br />500<br />400<br />300<br />280<br />260<br />240<br />CO2 Concentration<br />CO2 [ppmv]<br />220<br />200<br />180<br />0 °C<br />Temp. in F°<br />Temp. in °C<br />-8 °C <br />Dan Miller – Climateplace.org<br />0<br />100,000<br />200,000<br />300,000<br />400,000<br />500,000<br />600,000<br />Age (yr BP)<br />
  8. 8. NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies<br />
  9. 9. Feedback Loops – Tipping Points<br />At greater than 2°C average temperature increase, we risk unstoppable, runaway temperature increases:<br />Polar Ice Caps Melting- reduced reflection<br />Drought, insect infestations and fires killing/burning biomass<br />Permafrost methane thawing – Contains as much GHG as currently in atmosphere<br />Ocean methane thawing – Teratonnes of methane released<br />
  10. 10. Flickr: DanielKHC<br />Flat<br />Flickr: Mark Austria<br />
  11. 11. The “Poor” are Getting Richer<br />300m Indian middle class becoming used to Western culture and consumption<br />China car sales surpassed the US in December, 2008 – 872,900 vehicles sold/month<br />52% of Brazil (100m+ citizens) now has a car, access to credit, and holds a middle class job<br />
  12. 12.
  13. 13.
  14. 14. MTOe<br />
  15. 15. Crowded<br />Flickr: B℮n<br />
  16. 16.
  17. 17.
  18. 18. Resulting Trends<br />Higher Energy Prices and Volatility<br />Price on Carbon<br />Changing Consumer Preference<br />Increased Energy Efficiency<br />Increased Use of Renewable Energy<br />
  19. 19. Peak Oil – <br />Hubbert’s Prediction<br />Flickr: weatherjester<br />
  20. 20.
  21. 21. US Oil Production<br />
  22. 22. World Oil Production<br />
  23. 23. World Oil Production<br />P2<br />P<br />P<br />Before Peak Oil<br />After Peak Oil<br />Supply Increases<br />Supply Decreases<br />Q<br />Q<br />P1<br />P1<br />Demand Increases<br />Demand Increases<br />Q1<br />Q2<br />Q2<br />Q1<br />
  24. 24. Peak Oil - Actuals<br />Ex-OPEC and USSR<br />USA Peak – 1971<br />Hubbert Predicted – 1965-1970<br />Wikipedia<br />
  25. 25.
  26. 26. Increased Price of Carbon<br />Flickr: davipt<br />
  27. 27. Price on Carbon<br />Baseline and Credit:<br />Kyoto – Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)<br />Allows Annex A countries to invest in projects that reduce emissions in developing countries as an alternative to more expensive emission reductions in their own countries<br />Sets targets for emissions reduction for each country<br />Ratified by all Annex A nations except the US<br />Uses principal of “additionality”<br />Cap and Trade: Fix pollution, price floats <br />European Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS)<br />Waxman-Markey (US)<br />Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme (Australia)<br />Carbon Tax: Fix price, pollution floats<br />
  28. 28. Price on Carbon<br />
  29. 29. Price on Carbon<br />http://climateinteractive.org/<br />
  30. 30. Changing Consumer <br />Preference<br />
  31. 31. 1 M Vehicles<br />
  32. 32. 1 M Vehicles<br />
  33. 33. 1 M Vehicles<br />US Gas Prices<br />$ 2009<br />
  34. 34. 1 M Vehicles<br />US Gas Prices<br />$ 2009<br />Total US Hybrid Sales<br />
  35. 35. Cash for Clunkers, 2009<br />Edmunds.com – 2009 and 2006 vehicle models<br />
  36. 36. Increased Efficiency<br />
  37. 37. GE Evolution Locomotive<br />Has given Erie, Pennsylvania a trade surplus with China, Mexico and Brazil<br /><ul><li>10% less CO2 than standard locomotive
  38. 38. 10% less fuel resulting in a $2.5m savings over its life (locomotive costs $4m)</li></li></ul><li>Boeing 787 Dreamliner<br />Anticipated to be 20% more fuel efficient than 767<br />“one of the industry's most successful launches ever”<br />“demand for the Boeing plane unprecedented.”<br />
  39. 39. Smart Grid<br /> "Our expectation is that this network will be 100 or 1,000 times larger than the Internet. If you think about it, some homes have Internet access, but some don't. Everyone has electricity access--all of those homes could potentially be connected,”<br />Marie Hattar, VP Marketing<br />
  40. 40. Increased Use of Renewables<br />
  41. 41. Increased Use of Renewables<br />Saul Griffith, Makani Power:<br />Cannot be about “What is politically feasible”.<br />Nor should it be constrained by “What is economically feasible”.<br />If you want clean power for America (and the World), it must be about <br /> “What is Technically Necessary”<br />
  42. 42. Courtesy: Saul Griffith<br />
  43. 43. Courtesy: Saul Griffith<br />
  44. 44. Courtesy: Saul Griffith<br />
  45. 45. Courtesy: Saul Griffith<br />
  46. 46. Courtesy: Saul Griffith<br />
  47. 47. Courtesy: Saul Griffith<br />
  48. 48. Courtesy: Saul Griffith<br />
  49. 49. More People<br />Consuming More<br />With fewer resources<br />
  50. 50. Energy prices will remain high<br />To avoid runaway climate change, carbon will be priced<br />
  51. 51. Opportunities:<br />Energy efficiency<br />Addressing customers needs<br />Clean energy<br />
  52. 52. Opportunities:<br />Energy efficiency<br />Addressing customers needs<br />Clean energy<br />

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