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Henry Mahoo: Roles of local and indigenous knowledge weather forecasting in addressing climate change
Henry Mahoo: Roles of local and indigenous knowledge weather forecasting in addressing climate change
Henry Mahoo: Roles of local and indigenous knowledge weather forecasting in addressing climate change
Henry Mahoo: Roles of local and indigenous knowledge weather forecasting in addressing climate change
Henry Mahoo: Roles of local and indigenous knowledge weather forecasting in addressing climate change
Henry Mahoo: Roles of local and indigenous knowledge weather forecasting in addressing climate change
Henry Mahoo: Roles of local and indigenous knowledge weather forecasting in addressing climate change
Henry Mahoo: Roles of local and indigenous knowledge weather forecasting in addressing climate change
Henry Mahoo: Roles of local and indigenous knowledge weather forecasting in addressing climate change
Henry Mahoo: Roles of local and indigenous knowledge weather forecasting in addressing climate change
Henry Mahoo: Roles of local and indigenous knowledge weather forecasting in addressing climate change
Henry Mahoo: Roles of local and indigenous knowledge weather forecasting in addressing climate change
Henry Mahoo: Roles of local and indigenous knowledge weather forecasting in addressing climate change
Henry Mahoo: Roles of local and indigenous knowledge weather forecasting in addressing climate change
Henry Mahoo: Roles of local and indigenous knowledge weather forecasting in addressing climate change
Henry Mahoo: Roles of local and indigenous knowledge weather forecasting in addressing climate change
Henry Mahoo: Roles of local and indigenous knowledge weather forecasting in addressing climate change
Henry Mahoo: Roles of local and indigenous knowledge weather forecasting in addressing climate change
Henry Mahoo: Roles of local and indigenous knowledge weather forecasting in addressing climate change
Henry Mahoo: Roles of local and indigenous knowledge weather forecasting in addressing climate change
Henry Mahoo: Roles of local and indigenous knowledge weather forecasting in addressing climate change
Henry Mahoo: Roles of local and indigenous knowledge weather forecasting in addressing climate change
Henry Mahoo: Roles of local and indigenous knowledge weather forecasting in addressing climate change
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Henry Mahoo: Roles of local and indigenous knowledge weather forecasting in addressing climate change

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  • 1. AfricaAdapt Climate Change Symposium 2011. ‘Linking Climate Research, Policy and Practice for African-led Development’ 9-11 March 2011, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
  • 2. Roles of local and indigenous knowledge weather forecasting in addressing climate change <ul><li>by </li></ul><ul><li>Prof. Henry Mahoo </li></ul><ul><li>Sokoine University of Agriculture </li></ul><ul><li>Tanzania </li></ul>
  • 3. Outline of the presentation <ul><li>Introduction (IK and SF forecasting) </li></ul><ul><li>Shortfalls IK and SF weather forecasting </li></ul><ul><li>Challenges in IK forecasting </li></ul><ul><li>Challenges in Scientific forecasting </li></ul><ul><li>Bridging IK and SF knowledge </li></ul><ul><li>Formation of IK Groups and Core Team of experts </li></ul><ul><li>Outcomes (OND 2010) </li></ul><ul><li>Concluding Remarks </li></ul><ul><li>Acknowledgement </li></ul>
  • 4. Introduction-indigenous forecasting <ul><li>Indigenous knowledge (IK) is the knowledge systems developed by a community. Accumulated knowledge is passed orally from one generation to the next. </li></ul><ul><li>In many communities the world over, IK in weather forecasting has been used as the basis for local-level decision-making </li></ul><ul><li>It has value for the culture in which it evolves, and for scientists and planners striving to improve conditions in rural localities. </li></ul><ul><li>In Africa for example, local communities and farmers have developed intricate systems of gathering, predicting, interpreting and decision-making in relation to weather e.g. Nganyi clan of Western Kenya, the Maasai in Tanzania </li></ul><ul><li>The knowledge is adapted to local conditions and needs. </li></ul>
  • 5. Source: Mhita, 2006: A traditional weather forecaster using IK in Tanzania
  • 6. Introduction- scientific forecasting <ul><li>Scientific weather forecasting (SF) is the application of science and technology to predict the state of the atmosphere </li></ul><ul><li>SF is made by collecting quantitative data about the current state of the atmosphere and using scientific understanding of atmospheric processes to project how the atmosphere will evolve </li></ul><ul><li>Massive computational power is required to solve the equations that describe the atmosphere –use of models </li></ul><ul><li>Due to the incomplete understanding of atmospheric processes mean that forecasts become less accurate as the range of the forecast increases </li></ul><ul><li>Therefore downscaling techniques are required to take the information at scales smaller than the grid spacing </li></ul>
  • 7. Challenges in IK forecasting <ul><li>IK forecasting is highly local specific </li></ul><ul><li>IK in weather and climate prediction is under threat of disappearance due to: </li></ul><ul><li>lack of systematic documentation of the knowledge </li></ul><ul><li>Limited research to investigate the accuracy and reliability of IK forecasting </li></ul><ul><li>When old people who are the main custodians of the knowledge pass away, the knowledge which has been accumulated for many years is lost </li></ul><ul><li>Disappearing of key indicators used in IK due to Climate change (vegetation) </li></ul><ul><li>IK is also associated with mystical beliefs and therefore not taken seriously </li></ul>
  • 8. Challenges in Scientific forecasting <ul><li>SF is generated at macro-geographic scale and depends on the global metrological parameters and their dynamics </li></ul><ul><li>The SF provides quantitative rainfall in probabilistic mode for seasonal climate. </li></ul><ul><li>The information comes at a scale that is much coarser than what is required to make decisions at farm level </li></ul><ul><li>This information is not adequate and it does not meet farmer’s needs at field scale level </li></ul><ul><li>There is seldom or no direct communication between IK experts and Scientific experts (lack of fora) </li></ul>
  • 9. Bridging IK and SF knowledge <ul><li>There is a gap in terms of the type of weather/climate information required by farmers and other stakeholders at field scale level, compared with what is currently being provided by the Meteorological Departments and other climate information service providers . </li></ul><ul><li>A study was therefore conducted as part of the project “ Managing Risk, Reducing Vulnerability and Enhancing Agricultural Productivity under a Changing Climate” funded by IDRC/DFID </li></ul>
  • 10. Bridging (cont.) <ul><li>The objective is </li></ul><ul><li>to Enhance the operational and technical capacity of national institutions and key stakeholders to develop, disseminate and make use of climate knowledge, products and adaptation plans. </li></ul><ul><li>The work in Tanzania is being undertaken in Same District, Kilimanjaro Region (Figure 1). Similar work is being done to Ethiopia, Kenya and Sudan </li></ul>
  • 11.  
  • 12. Climate information needs <ul><li>Example: FARMERS: </li></ul><ul><li>When will the rain start and end? </li></ul><ul><li>What will be the actual amount of rain to be expected? </li></ul><ul><li>What crops to grow based on the predicted/forecasted season? </li></ul><ul><li>information to reach farmers well before the start of the season and be updated on the progress of the rain from time to time </li></ul><ul><li>Climate information should be put in a form easily to be understood by all stakeholders [e.g. use of local languages] </li></ul>
  • 13. Formation of Core team of district experts <ul><li>Team composition </li></ul><ul><li>DALDO 1 </li></ul><ul><li>TMA Same 1 </li></ul><ul><li>District extension Officer (agriculture) 1 </li></ul><ul><li>District extension Officer (livestock) 1 </li></ul><ul><li>Indigenous Knowledge (IK) forecasters 3 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Ruvu, Bangalala, na Mhezi </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Ward Extension Officers 7 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Ruvu, Njoro, Gavao, Bangalala, Vumari, Mhezi, na Tae </li></ul></ul><ul><li>SAIPRO (NGO) 1 </li></ul><ul><li>Agricultural inputs stakeholders 1 </li></ul><ul><li>SUA 1 </li></ul><ul><li>TMA Headquarters 1 </li></ul>
  • 14. Terms of References for the core team <ul><li>To make sure that the research and extension experts exchange ideas and experiences on weather and climate information and forecasts </li></ul><ul><li>To search and interpret climate information, and to make sure that the forecasts reaches to farmers timely, correctly, and in a way that is easily understandable </li></ul><ul><li>To give advise to farmers on what to do once they are given the climate forecast </li></ul>
  • 15. Schedule of meetings of the core team <ul><li>At the beginning of September (before OND ( Vuli ) season) </li></ul><ul><li>At the beginning of November (Mid of OND ( Vuli ) season) </li></ul><ul><li>At the beginning of February (before MAM ( Masika ) season) </li></ul><ul><li>At the beginning of April (Mid of MAM ( Masika ) season) </li></ul>
  • 16. Outcomes: <ul><li>Seasonal forecast SOND 2010 </li></ul><ul><li>TMA </li></ul><ul><li>Rains will be Below normal </li></ul><ul><li>Rains will commence from third to fourth week of September </li></ul><ul><li>Rains will delay, resulting into shorter season. </li></ul><ul><li>IK </li></ul><ul><li>The season (OND 2010) will be normal </li></ul><ul><li>The rains are expected to start between the first to second week of October 2010 </li></ul><ul><li>The rains (OND 2010) are expected to end early. </li></ul>
  • 17.  
  • 18. Advise to farmers(crops) in Ruvu village <ul><li>Farmers should use improved seeds since they use irrigation. </li></ul><ul><li>Recommended maize seeds include: SC513, 627, 713, KITALE 513, and PH04. </li></ul><ul><li>Farmers with crops that have not been harvested should harvest them to avoid damage by the OND rains. The harvesting should be done by end of September 2010 </li></ul>
  • 19. Advise to farmers (livestock) in Ruvu village <ul><li>The OND rains will allow pasture regeneration </li></ul><ul><li>However, livestock keepers should implement their traditional rotational techniques locally called “ milimbiko ” since the rains will stop early </li></ul><ul><li>At the onset of the rains livestock keepers should not graze in valley bottoms in order to avoid livestock diseases </li></ul>
  • 20. Advise to inputs suppliers (crops) <ul><li>Stockists should make sure that agric. inputs are available early during the first week of October. </li></ul><ul><li>The following maize varieties must be available: SC 513, 627, 713, PH 04, and KITALE 513. </li></ul><ul><li>The following vegetable seeds should also be available: tomatoes, and onion sweet pepper </li></ul>
  • 21. Advise to inputs suppliers (livestock) <ul><li>Stockists should make sure that they have enough drugs against disease outbreaks such as Rift Valley Fever . </li></ul><ul><li>Other drugs such as Berenil, Novidium, and Oxy-tetracycline should also be available </li></ul>
  • 22. Concluding remarks <ul><li>The scientific forecast prepare the farmers in terms of its quantity while the IK prediction helps them to know the possible onset of the rainfall at field level </li></ul><ul><li>There is need therefore of downscaling the national seasonal forecasts to field scale level in order to meet the needs of stakeholders such as famers </li></ul><ul><li>IK should be given attention and be systematically documented </li></ul><ul><li>IK and SF should be combined to provide consensus forecasting at field scale level </li></ul>
  • 23. ACKNOWLEDGMENT The project “ Managing Risk, Reducing Vulnerability and Enhancing Agricultural Productivity under a Changing Climate” is supported by the Climate Change Adaptation in Africa (CCAA) program, a joint initiative of Canada’s International Development Research Centre (IDRC) and the United Kingdom’s Department for International Development (DFID). Thank you for your attention

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