Climate variability and change or multiple stressors? Farmer perceptions regarding threats to livelihoods in Zimbabwe and ...
Outline  <ul><li>S tudy background </li></ul><ul><li>Objectives  </li></ul><ul><li>Methodology  </li></ul><ul><li>Findings...
<ul><li>Study background </li></ul>3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
Context  <ul><li>General indications of more erratic rainfall and temperature increases in Africa </li></ul><ul><li>A  gen...
<ul><li>Objectives   </li></ul>3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
Aim <ul><li>Establish farmer perceptions of climate risk, identify existing response strategies and develop appropriate st...
<ul><li>Perceptions related to decision making </li></ul><ul><li>Mal-adaptations attributed to problems in perception, cog...
Objectives of the study <ul><li>Farmer perceptions regarding CC & V as a threat to livelihoods </li></ul><ul><li>Investiga...
<ul><li>Methodology  </li></ul>3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
Approach to the study 3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
Findings  3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
Significant changes in weather patterns over a five year period by district 3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium Zimbabwe  Zambia   Precipitation  More unpredictable- 1995 More unpredictable-  late 19...
Farmer perceptions of three seasons by district 3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
Perceptions regarding causes  3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium Causes of CC & V Monze % Sinazongwe % Lupane % Lower Gwer...
Stressors  <ul><li>Financial  </li></ul><ul><li>Market constraints </li></ul><ul><li>Livestock/crop diseases </li></ul><ul...
Zambia  3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium Stressor  Food insecurity Loss of income Insecure livelihoods Total Rank Errati...
Zimbabwe  3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium Stressor  Loss of crop yield  Loss of income  Insecure livelihood  Total  Ran...
Changes in farming systems by district over a five year period 3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
<ul><li>Conclusions   </li></ul>3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
<ul><li>Farmers reports on local climatic conditions are generally consistent with actual climate reports </li></ul><ul><l...
<ul><li>THANK YOU </li></ul>3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
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Mubaya: Climate variability and change or multiple stressors? Farmer perceptions regarding threats to livelihoods in Zimbabwe and Zambia

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Mubaya: Climate variability and change or multiple stressors? Farmer perceptions regarding threats to livelihoods in Zimbabwe and Zambia

  1. 1. Climate variability and change or multiple stressors? Farmer perceptions regarding threats to livelihoods in Zimbabwe and Zambia Chipo Plaxedes Mubaya 3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
  2. 2. Outline <ul><li>S tudy background </li></ul><ul><li>Objectives </li></ul><ul><li>Methodology </li></ul><ul><li>Findings </li></ul><ul><li>Conclusions </li></ul>3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
  3. 3. <ul><li>Study background </li></ul>3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
  4. 4. 3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
  5. 5. Context <ul><li>General indications of more erratic rainfall and temperature increases in Africa </li></ul><ul><li>A general decrease for total seasonal rainfall and temperature increases in Southern Africa </li></ul><ul><li>Among countries worst affected are Zimbabwe and Zambia </li></ul><ul><li>Economies agriculture (rain-fed) based </li></ul>3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
  6. 6. <ul><li>Objectives </li></ul>3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
  7. 7. Aim <ul><li>Establish farmer perceptions of climate risk, identify existing response strategies and develop appropriate strategies for adapting to future climatic change </li></ul>3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
  8. 8. <ul><li>Perceptions related to decision making </li></ul><ul><li>Mal-adaptations attributed to problems in perception, cognition or the lack of available information </li></ul><ul><li>Attribution </li></ul><ul><li>Understand perceptions on non-climate risks </li></ul>3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
  9. 9. Objectives of the study <ul><li>Farmer perceptions regarding CC & V as a threat to livelihoods </li></ul><ul><li>Investigate perceptions regarding CC & V in relation to non-climatic risks </li></ul>3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
  10. 10. <ul><li>Methodology </li></ul>3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
  11. 11. 3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
  12. 12. Approach to the study 3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
  13. 13. 3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
  14. 14. Findings 3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
  15. 15. Significant changes in weather patterns over a five year period by district 3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
  16. 16. 3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium Zimbabwe Zambia Precipitation More unpredictable- 1995 More unpredictable- late 1980s Droughts (3 seasons between 1990 & 2010) Higher incidence & intensity of dry spells Excessive rains (2 seasons after 2000) Heavy rains and floods (2 consecutive seasons 2006/7, 2008/9 Shorter rain seasons Temperature Hotter than before Hotter than before Shift in highest temperature periods Warmer winters than before Prolonged winters
  17. 17. Farmer perceptions of three seasons by district 3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
  18. 18. Perceptions regarding causes 3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium Causes of CC & V Monze % Sinazongwe % Lupane % Lower Gweru % Natural causes 34 35 24 31 Deforestation 33 17 5 14 Believe its god's will/ nature, cultural beliefs 3 7 45 27 Does not know 30 41 26 28
  19. 19. Stressors <ul><li>Financial </li></ul><ul><li>Market constraints </li></ul><ul><li>Livestock/crop diseases </li></ul><ul><li>Agricultural inputs </li></ul><ul><li>Weakened government capacity </li></ul><ul><li>Inadequate draught power/farming implements </li></ul><ul><li>Climate related </li></ul><ul><li>HIV and AIDS </li></ul><ul><li>Low soil fertility </li></ul>3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
  20. 20. Zambia 3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium Stressor Food insecurity Loss of income Insecure livelihoods Total Rank Erratic rainfall 20 10 18 48 1 Lack of capital 10 20 15 45 2 Drying up of water sources 12 14 13 39 3 Few dams 10 15 8 33 4 Shortage of draught power 15 10 7 32 5 Lack of knowledge 9 12 10 31 6 Non- functional dip tanks 6 4 10 20 7
  21. 21. Zimbabwe 3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium Stressor Loss of crop yield Loss of income Insecure livelihood Total Rank Climate variability (Erratic rains, frost, drought) 18 16 16 50 1 Shortage of drugs in clinics 16 16 16 48 2 Late supply of inputs 14 16 14 44 3 Lack of transport to market produce and bad roads 10 18 12 40 4 HIV and AIDS 10 10 14 34 5 Lack of draught power 12 10 6 28 6
  22. 22. Changes in farming systems by district over a five year period 3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
  23. 23. <ul><li>Conclusions </li></ul>3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
  24. 24. <ul><li>Farmers reports on local climatic conditions are generally consistent with actual climate reports </li></ul><ul><li>Farmers may be assigning observed negative impacts on the agricultural and socio-economic system solely to climate variability </li></ul><ul><li>Challenges in disentangling contribution of each factor to observed outcomes </li></ul><ul><li>Climate variability and change remain the most critical for these farmers in multiplicity of stressors </li></ul>3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
  25. 25. <ul><li>THANK YOU </li></ul>3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium

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