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Mubaya: Climate variability and change or multiple stressors? Farmer perceptions regarding threats to livelihoods in Zimbabwe and Zambia
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Mubaya: Climate variability and change or multiple stressors? Farmer perceptions regarding threats to livelihoods in Zimbabwe and Zambia

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  • 1. Climate variability and change or multiple stressors? Farmer perceptions regarding threats to livelihoods in Zimbabwe and Zambia Chipo Plaxedes Mubaya 3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
  • 2. Outline
    • S tudy background
    • Objectives
    • Methodology
    • Findings
    • Conclusions
    3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
  • 3.
    • Study background
    3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
  • 4. 3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
  • 5. Context
    • General indications of more erratic rainfall and temperature increases in Africa
    • A general decrease for total seasonal rainfall and temperature increases in Southern Africa
    • Among countries worst affected are Zimbabwe and Zambia
    • Economies agriculture (rain-fed) based
    3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
  • 6.
    • Objectives
    3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
  • 7. Aim
    • Establish farmer perceptions of climate risk, identify existing response strategies and develop appropriate strategies for adapting to future climatic change
    3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
  • 8.
    • Perceptions related to decision making
    • Mal-adaptations attributed to problems in perception, cognition or the lack of available information
    • Attribution
    • Understand perceptions on non-climate risks
    3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
  • 9. Objectives of the study
    • Farmer perceptions regarding CC & V as a threat to livelihoods
    • Investigate perceptions regarding CC & V in relation to non-climatic risks
    3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
  • 10.
    • Methodology
    3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
  • 11. 3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
  • 12. Approach to the study 3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
  • 13. 3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
  • 14. Findings 3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
  • 15. Significant changes in weather patterns over a five year period by district 3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
  • 16. 3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium Zimbabwe Zambia Precipitation More unpredictable- 1995 More unpredictable- late 1980s Droughts (3 seasons between 1990 & 2010) Higher incidence & intensity of dry spells Excessive rains (2 seasons after 2000) Heavy rains and floods (2 consecutive seasons 2006/7, 2008/9 Shorter rain seasons Temperature Hotter than before Hotter than before Shift in highest temperature periods Warmer winters than before Prolonged winters
  • 17. Farmer perceptions of three seasons by district 3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
  • 18. Perceptions regarding causes 3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium Causes of CC & V Monze % Sinazongwe % Lupane % Lower Gweru % Natural causes 34 35 24 31 Deforestation 33 17 5 14 Believe its god's will/ nature, cultural beliefs 3 7 45 27 Does not know 30 41 26 28
  • 19. Stressors
    • Financial
    • Market constraints
    • Livestock/crop diseases
    • Agricultural inputs
    • Weakened government capacity
    • Inadequate draught power/farming implements
    • Climate related
    • HIV and AIDS
    • Low soil fertility
    3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
  • 20. Zambia 3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium Stressor Food insecurity Loss of income Insecure livelihoods Total Rank Erratic rainfall 20 10 18 48 1 Lack of capital 10 20 15 45 2 Drying up of water sources 12 14 13 39 3 Few dams 10 15 8 33 4 Shortage of draught power 15 10 7 32 5 Lack of knowledge 9 12 10 31 6 Non- functional dip tanks 6 4 10 20 7
  • 21. Zimbabwe 3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium Stressor Loss of crop yield Loss of income Insecure livelihood Total Rank Climate variability (Erratic rains, frost, drought) 18 16 16 50 1 Shortage of drugs in clinics 16 16 16 48 2 Late supply of inputs 14 16 14 44 3 Lack of transport to market produce and bad roads 10 18 12 40 4 HIV and AIDS 10 10 14 34 5 Lack of draught power 12 10 6 28 6
  • 22. Changes in farming systems by district over a five year period 3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
  • 23.
    • Conclusions
    3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
  • 24.
    • Farmers reports on local climatic conditions are generally consistent with actual climate reports
    • Farmers may be assigning observed negative impacts on the agricultural and socio-economic system solely to climate variability
    • Challenges in disentangling contribution of each factor to observed outcomes
    • Climate variability and change remain the most critical for these farmers in multiplicity of stressors
    3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
  • 25.
    • THANK YOU
    3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium