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Marek Harsdorff: Climate compatible productive and decent work – a major way out of poverty and the climate trap in Ethiopia
 

Marek Harsdorff: Climate compatible productive and decent work – a major way out of poverty and the climate trap in Ethiopia

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    Marek Harsdorff: Climate compatible productive and decent work – a major way out of poverty and the climate trap in Ethiopia Marek Harsdorff: Climate compatible productive and decent work – a major way out of poverty and the climate trap in Ethiopia Presentation Transcript

    • Climate compatible productive and decentworkA way out of poverty and the climatetrap in Ethiopia
      Marek Harsdorff
      Economist
      Green Jobs Program - International Labor Organisation
      AfricaAdaptConferenceAddis 9-11 March 2011
    • Ethiopia’s challenge in the 21st century
      Economic
      Social
      growth
    • Ethiopia’s challenge in the 21st century
      Economic
      Social
      Poverty
      Growth
    • Economic challenge
      Agriculture (2.5% of land irrigated) account for 46% of GDP and 60% export earnings
    • Social challenge
      Farmers, women & youthbuildeconomic basis whilemostvulnearble and affected by shocks
    • ‘GDP of the Poor’
      India Example: 480 Million people earn livelihood in small farming, animal husbandry, informal forestry…
      Share of ‘nature’/ecosystem services in classical GDP
      7.3 %
      Share of ‘nature’/ecosystem services in “GDP of the Poor”
      57 %
      Source: GIST’s Green Accounting for Indian States Project, 2002-03 data
    • Climate-Economy-Employmentlink
      Economic Basis
      Employment MDG1
    • Integratedapproach to address CC & development = win-win
      Employment-ledclimate compatible development
      5 key areas
      Environment
      Social
      Economic
      Solution?
    • ‘Hard’ adaptation (water) - Employment intensive insvesment in infrastructure
      Water harvesting
      Irrigation
      Floods control etc.
      If 20% of needed infrastructure in developing countries labor-based:
      >100 million jobs can be created
    • ‘Soft’ adaptation in skills training focussing on productive employment
      Tigray Project
      • Africa 1.9m organic farms
      • rest lack agro-ecological knowledge
      • techniques available
    • Micro-insurance (weather index)
      Onlypartly solution not for the poor of the poor
    • Social protection through public works programs
      Employmentcreation in climate change adaptation
      NREGA India 59 m
      PSNP Ethiopia8 m
      ‘Work for insurance’?
    • Economic diversification - renewable energy
      In SSA 74% do not have access to electricity (561mio)
      89% of SSA rely on biomass for cooking
      Poor spend 12% income on energy, 4x of developed world
      Out of 34 countries withhighestpotential 17 in Africa
    • Economic diversification - pro-poor green value chain development in cut-flower
      50,000 employed 85% women
      300 birr/month (60$)
      Farm with 400 empl. 10ha
      Eco-charcoal 200 sacs 25kg/month = 20,000 birr
      • 10% salary & employment creation 1-2%
      • Reduced vulnerability & energy security
    • Integratedapproach to address CC & development = win-win
      MainstreamingEmployment-ledclimate compatible growth in developping planning and policy
      e.g NAPA&GTP
      Environment
      Social
      Economic
    • Economy and social well-being depend on natural environment and climate
      Natural
      Environment
      & Climate
      Health, Water & Energy stress
      Drought affects GDP
      Social
      Economic
      Poverty
      Growth
      Jobless growth
    • Environmental challenges
      Global temperature increase between 1,5-6 degrees by2100
      By 2080, an increase of 5 to 8% of arid and semi-arid land in Africa is projected (notably in West Africa: over last 30 years 25% decrease in rainfall)
      Towards the end of the 21st century, projected sea level rise 15-95 centimetres will affect low-lying coastal areas with large populations (e.g. Mozambique)
      The economic lost could amount to 20% of global GDP
      The cost of adaptation could amount to at least 5 to 10% of GDP of Africa (for SSA about $18 billion/year up to 2025)
    • Economic challenges
      1.6% GDP growth in 2009 => down from 4.9% in 2008
      average growth over 5% since 6 years but no translation into employment growth.
      Reason: Growth sustained by natural resource extraction sectors (grew by 10%) but employing only 10% of labor force (as capital intensive), agriculture which employs over 50% of labor force grew only by 2.5% and makes 23% of GDP (down from 27% 1999)
      As a result: factor accumulation growth no total factor productivity growth (no growth based on human and technological progress)
      Egypt 4.7%, Eritrea 2%, Ethopia 7.5% (non-aricultural growth in service sector), Kenya 2.1%, Lesotho -1%, Malawi 5%, Namibia -0.7%, Nigeria 5.6%, Sudan 3%, Swaziland 0.4%
      Africa’s key economic sectors and its current development in 2009:
      Agriculture: falling commodity prices less demand => low invest e.g in coffee, cocoa, cotton.
      Extraction Industry/ Natural resources/mining: scaled back production due to slow demand
      Manufacture /natural resource based industries: reduced capacity (Uganda 15 factories closed in fish, tobacco and coffee industry)
      Tourism: Decline in tourists
    • Social Challenges: Employment
      Agriculture employs 63% in Sub Sahara in 2007 down from 67% in 1998 (33% North Africa down from 36%) (99% working in the informal sector)
      Extractive industry employs 10% unchanged (23% North up from 20%)
      => primary commodity production based economy
      Service 27% up from 22% (44% unchanged North Africa)
      Informal sector employs 75% in SSA (SA excluded) and 43% in NA
      7.9% unemployment in Sub Sahara 2008 unchanged over last 10 years (13%=>10% in North Africa)
      77.4% vulnerable unemployment, 66% self reported unemployment 2002
      Active population over 60% = 400 million in 2009 up from 230 m in 1990 highest in World: 70% under 30 (of which 17% unemployed in SSA and 34% in North Africa no change over last 10 years)
      Working poor (those working but earning less than 2$ a day are 82% of working population) in Sub Sahara 2007 (30% in North Africa)
    • Social Challenges: Health, education…
      Africa’s population grew by 2,3% in 2009: 1billion today!
      Strong rural-urban migration (housing, education, health, skills and employment challenge)
      51% in Sub Sahara live with less than 1,25$/day (3% in North Africa) the same as 1980!
      School enrolment in Sub Sahara still low: 74% 2007 (96% in North Africa)
      Life expectancy at birth is over 70 in North Africa and around 50 in Sub Sahara (Malaria is responsible for 91% of all mortalities in Africa)
      Access to secure drinking water: Only 60%
      Access to electricity: Only 26%
    • Environmental impacts on the Economy
      Global Loss of Fisheries…
      • Open Access & Perverse Subsidies are key drivers of the loss of fisheries
      • Half of wild marine fisheries are fully exploited, with a further quarter already over-exploited
      • at risk : $ 80-100 billion income from the sector
      • at risk : est. 27 million jobs
      • at risk : Health … over a billion rely on fish as their main or sole source of animal protein, especially in developing countries.
      We are fishing down the food web to ever smaller species…
      Source: Ben ten Brink (MNP) presentation at the Workshop: The Economics of the Global Loss of Biological Diversity 5-6 March 2008, Brussels, Belgium. Original source: Pauly
    • “2048” End of Commercial Fisheries ?
      2048 ?
    • Environmental impacts on Social challenges
      89% of SSA relies on biomass for cooking
      In rural areas women carry & search wood for up to 5h/day
    • “2026” End of Fuel Wood in Uganda?
    • Environmental impacts on Employment
    • Environmental impacts on Economy and Society as a whole: Mozambique Cyclone Eline
      • Massive destruction of economic and social capital
      • 2 million displaced
      • 1,5 mio livelihoods impacted
      • 350,000 jobs lost
      Mozambique 2000: Limpopo Bridge
    • Environmental challenges have an economic and social dimension!
      Impact on employment in Agriculture, Tourism, Energy, SMEs, Extractive Industry, Waste, Construction…
      Health burden increases, by 2030 90 million more people than today will be exposed to malaria (e.g Zimbabwe)
      The likelihood of civil conflict due to climate change impacts (notably water stress; river borders) could increase by 54%
      By 2020, 75 - 250 million are projected to be exposed to increased water stress due to climate change.
      By 2020, in some countries, yields from rain-fed agriculture could be reduced by up to 50% (food security/malnutrition)
      Unabated climate change: economic cost 6-20% GDP by 2080
    • Env. Degradation and CC could impede achievement of Development Goals:
      as key African economic sectors (agriculture, natural commodities and tourism) are highly affected; and
      as the lowest social class of the poor is hit hardest
      Is there a way out of the Dilemma?
    • Win-win-win the concept of Green Jobs
      Turns Challenges
      into Opportunities
      Win for the
      Environment
      Sustainable use of resources
      Win for the poor
      Win for the Economy
      Employment intensive growth and benefit from environmental service
      Growth based on technological progress and efficiency
    • Green Jobs translate growth into social progress and employment
      • Prospects for Africa 2010: Growth 3-5%, but highdependent on export of primarycommodities => jobslessgrowth
      • UNECA 2010: If growthis to besustained and translatedinto social progress and employment: shift growthpolesfrom extractive industries to higheffecientemployment intensive poles: agriculture & agro-industry (e.g. organic-) and service (e.g. renewableenergy)
      • Increase Total Factor Productivitygrowth (e.g. technologytransfer in renewableenergywhereAfrica has a comparative advantage)
    • Turn Challenges into Opportunities e.g. Fishery
    • Benefits from Ecological Restoration
    • Turn Challenges into Opportunities e.g. Forests
      75% of the population in Sub Sahara Africa depend for their livelihoods on non timber forest products
      Sustainable forest management can:
      create massive employment, provide for livelihoods,
      make a significant contribution to the fight against climate change,
      combat desertification and land degradation.
    • Natural Conservation creates revenues and job opportunities
      Balmford et al, 2002, “Economic Reasons for Conserving Wild Nature”, Science 297, estimates Protected Areas could produce goods and services valued at between $ 4,400 billion - $ 5,200 billion per annum
      Natural Capital : Present Value (PV) of a constant service annuity of $ 5,000 billion per annum, discounted @ 4% per annum
      Estimate of the number employed directly in the maintenance, protection, and oversight of Protected Areas globally
      Global Business Sector estimates from Global Markets Centre (“GMC”), Deutsche Bank
    • Turn Challenges into Opportunities e.g. Infrastructure adaptation
      Infrastructure to control flash-floods
      If 20% of needed infrastructure in developing countries in water and roads will be labor-based:
      >100 m jobs in developing countries created
    • Economic and labour market impacts on balance
      Net gain in jobs from active climate and environmental policies
      Large potential in developing countries
      Only decent + green jobs help to meet the tripple challenge
      Environmental
      Social
      Economic
    • EU rational to move to 30% target!What is Africa doing about with the highest renewable potential ?
      "If we stick to a 20% cut, Europe is likely to lose the race to compete in the low-carbon world to countries such as China, Japan or the US, all of which are looking to create a more attractive environment for low-carbon investment," the France, German and UK ministers wrote in the Financial Times 15 July 2010. And Africa?