Marek Harsdorff: Climate compatible productive and decent work – a major way out of poverty and the climate trap in Ethiopia
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Marek Harsdorff: Climate compatible productive and decent work – a major way out of poverty and the climate trap in Ethiopia

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Marek Harsdorff: Climate compatible productive and decent work – a major way out of poverty and the climate trap in Ethiopia Marek Harsdorff: Climate compatible productive and decent work – a major way out of poverty and the climate trap in Ethiopia Presentation Transcript

  • Climate compatible productive and decentworkA way out of poverty and the climatetrap in Ethiopia
    Marek Harsdorff
    Economist
    Green Jobs Program - International Labor Organisation
    AfricaAdaptConferenceAddis 9-11 March 2011
  • Ethiopia’s challenge in the 21st century
    Economic
    Social
    growth
  • Ethiopia’s challenge in the 21st century
    Economic
    Social
    Poverty
    Growth
  • Economic challenge
    Agriculture (2.5% of land irrigated) account for 46% of GDP and 60% export earnings
  • Social challenge
    Farmers, women & youthbuildeconomic basis whilemostvulnearble and affected by shocks
  • ‘GDP of the Poor’
    India Example: 480 Million people earn livelihood in small farming, animal husbandry, informal forestry…
    Share of ‘nature’/ecosystem services in classical GDP
    7.3 %
    Share of ‘nature’/ecosystem services in “GDP of the Poor”
    57 %
    Source: GIST’s Green Accounting for Indian States Project, 2002-03 data
  • Climate-Economy-Employmentlink
    Economic Basis
    Employment MDG1
  • Integratedapproach to address CC & development = win-win
    Employment-ledclimate compatible development
    5 key areas
    Environment
    Social
    Economic
    Solution?
  • ‘Hard’ adaptation (water) - Employment intensive insvesment in infrastructure
    Water harvesting
    Irrigation
    Floods control etc.
    If 20% of needed infrastructure in developing countries labor-based:
    >100 million jobs can be created
  • ‘Soft’ adaptation in skills training focussing on productive employment
    Tigray Project
    • Africa 1.9m organic farms
    • rest lack agro-ecological knowledge
    • techniques available
  • Micro-insurance (weather index)
    Onlypartly solution not for the poor of the poor
  • Social protection through public works programs
    Employmentcreation in climate change adaptation
    NREGA India 59 m
    PSNP Ethiopia8 m
    ‘Work for insurance’?
  • Economic diversification - renewable energy
    In SSA 74% do not have access to electricity (561mio)
    89% of SSA rely on biomass for cooking
    Poor spend 12% income on energy, 4x of developed world
    Out of 34 countries withhighestpotential 17 in Africa
  • Economic diversification - pro-poor green value chain development in cut-flower
    50,000 employed 85% women
    300 birr/month (60$)
    Farm with 400 empl. 10ha
    Eco-charcoal 200 sacs 25kg/month = 20,000 birr
    • 10% salary & employment creation 1-2%
    • Reduced vulnerability & energy security
  • Integratedapproach to address CC & development = win-win
    MainstreamingEmployment-ledclimate compatible growth in developping planning and policy
    e.g NAPA&GTP
    Environment
    Social
    Economic
  • Economy and social well-being depend on natural environment and climate
    Natural
    Environment
    & Climate
    Health, Water & Energy stress
    Drought affects GDP
    Social
    Economic
    Poverty
    Growth
    Jobless growth
  • Environmental challenges
    Global temperature increase between 1,5-6 degrees by2100
    By 2080, an increase of 5 to 8% of arid and semi-arid land in Africa is projected (notably in West Africa: over last 30 years 25% decrease in rainfall)
    Towards the end of the 21st century, projected sea level rise 15-95 centimetres will affect low-lying coastal areas with large populations (e.g. Mozambique)
    The economic lost could amount to 20% of global GDP
    The cost of adaptation could amount to at least 5 to 10% of GDP of Africa (for SSA about $18 billion/year up to 2025)
  • Economic challenges
    1.6% GDP growth in 2009 => down from 4.9% in 2008
    average growth over 5% since 6 years but no translation into employment growth.
    Reason: Growth sustained by natural resource extraction sectors (grew by 10%) but employing only 10% of labor force (as capital intensive), agriculture which employs over 50% of labor force grew only by 2.5% and makes 23% of GDP (down from 27% 1999)
    As a result: factor accumulation growth no total factor productivity growth (no growth based on human and technological progress)
    Egypt 4.7%, Eritrea 2%, Ethopia 7.5% (non-aricultural growth in service sector), Kenya 2.1%, Lesotho -1%, Malawi 5%, Namibia -0.7%, Nigeria 5.6%, Sudan 3%, Swaziland 0.4%
    Africa’s key economic sectors and its current development in 2009:
    Agriculture: falling commodity prices less demand => low invest e.g in coffee, cocoa, cotton.
    Extraction Industry/ Natural resources/mining: scaled back production due to slow demand
    Manufacture /natural resource based industries: reduced capacity (Uganda 15 factories closed in fish, tobacco and coffee industry)
    Tourism: Decline in tourists
  • Social Challenges: Employment
    Agriculture employs 63% in Sub Sahara in 2007 down from 67% in 1998 (33% North Africa down from 36%) (99% working in the informal sector)
    Extractive industry employs 10% unchanged (23% North up from 20%)
    => primary commodity production based economy
    Service 27% up from 22% (44% unchanged North Africa)
    Informal sector employs 75% in SSA (SA excluded) and 43% in NA
    7.9% unemployment in Sub Sahara 2008 unchanged over last 10 years (13%=>10% in North Africa)
    77.4% vulnerable unemployment, 66% self reported unemployment 2002
    Active population over 60% = 400 million in 2009 up from 230 m in 1990 highest in World: 70% under 30 (of which 17% unemployed in SSA and 34% in North Africa no change over last 10 years)
    Working poor (those working but earning less than 2$ a day are 82% of working population) in Sub Sahara 2007 (30% in North Africa)
  • Social Challenges: Health, education…
    Africa’s population grew by 2,3% in 2009: 1billion today!
    Strong rural-urban migration (housing, education, health, skills and employment challenge)
    51% in Sub Sahara live with less than 1,25$/day (3% in North Africa) the same as 1980!
    School enrolment in Sub Sahara still low: 74% 2007 (96% in North Africa)
    Life expectancy at birth is over 70 in North Africa and around 50 in Sub Sahara (Malaria is responsible for 91% of all mortalities in Africa)
    Access to secure drinking water: Only 60%
    Access to electricity: Only 26%
  • Environmental impacts on the Economy
    Global Loss of Fisheries…
    • Open Access & Perverse Subsidies are key drivers of the loss of fisheries
    • Half of wild marine fisheries are fully exploited, with a further quarter already over-exploited
    • at risk : $ 80-100 billion income from the sector
    • at risk : est. 27 million jobs
    • at risk : Health … over a billion rely on fish as their main or sole source of animal protein, especially in developing countries.
    We are fishing down the food web to ever smaller species…
    Source: Ben ten Brink (MNP) presentation at the Workshop: The Economics of the Global Loss of Biological Diversity 5-6 March 2008, Brussels, Belgium. Original source: Pauly
  • “2048” End of Commercial Fisheries ?
    2048 ?
  • Environmental impacts on Social challenges
    89% of SSA relies on biomass for cooking
    In rural areas women carry & search wood for up to 5h/day
  • “2026” End of Fuel Wood in Uganda?
  • Environmental impacts on Employment
  • Environmental impacts on Economy and Society as a whole: Mozambique Cyclone Eline
    • Massive destruction of economic and social capital
    • 2 million displaced
    • 1,5 mio livelihoods impacted
    • 350,000 jobs lost
    Mozambique 2000: Limpopo Bridge
  • Environmental challenges have an economic and social dimension!
    Impact on employment in Agriculture, Tourism, Energy, SMEs, Extractive Industry, Waste, Construction…
    Health burden increases, by 2030 90 million more people than today will be exposed to malaria (e.g Zimbabwe)
    The likelihood of civil conflict due to climate change impacts (notably water stress; river borders) could increase by 54%
    By 2020, 75 - 250 million are projected to be exposed to increased water stress due to climate change.
    By 2020, in some countries, yields from rain-fed agriculture could be reduced by up to 50% (food security/malnutrition)
    Unabated climate change: economic cost 6-20% GDP by 2080
  • Env. Degradation and CC could impede achievement of Development Goals:
    as key African economic sectors (agriculture, natural commodities and tourism) are highly affected; and
    as the lowest social class of the poor is hit hardest
    Is there a way out of the Dilemma?
  • Win-win-win the concept of Green Jobs
    Turns Challenges
    into Opportunities
    Win for the
    Environment
    Sustainable use of resources
    Win for the poor
    Win for the Economy
    Employment intensive growth and benefit from environmental service
    Growth based on technological progress and efficiency
  • Green Jobs translate growth into social progress and employment
    • Prospects for Africa 2010: Growth 3-5%, but highdependent on export of primarycommodities => jobslessgrowth
    • UNECA 2010: If growthis to besustained and translatedinto social progress and employment: shift growthpolesfrom extractive industries to higheffecientemployment intensive poles: agriculture & agro-industry (e.g. organic-) and service (e.g. renewableenergy)
    • Increase Total Factor Productivitygrowth (e.g. technologytransfer in renewableenergywhereAfrica has a comparative advantage)
  • Turn Challenges into Opportunities e.g. Fishery
  • Benefits from Ecological Restoration
  • Turn Challenges into Opportunities e.g. Forests
    75% of the population in Sub Sahara Africa depend for their livelihoods on non timber forest products
    Sustainable forest management can:
    create massive employment, provide for livelihoods,
    make a significant contribution to the fight against climate change,
    combat desertification and land degradation.
  • Natural Conservation creates revenues and job opportunities
    Balmford et al, 2002, “Economic Reasons for Conserving Wild Nature”, Science 297, estimates Protected Areas could produce goods and services valued at between $ 4,400 billion - $ 5,200 billion per annum
    Natural Capital : Present Value (PV) of a constant service annuity of $ 5,000 billion per annum, discounted @ 4% per annum
    Estimate of the number employed directly in the maintenance, protection, and oversight of Protected Areas globally
    Global Business Sector estimates from Global Markets Centre (“GMC”), Deutsche Bank
  • Turn Challenges into Opportunities e.g. Infrastructure adaptation
    Infrastructure to control flash-floods
    If 20% of needed infrastructure in developing countries in water and roads will be labor-based:
    >100 m jobs in developing countries created
  • Economic and labour market impacts on balance
    Net gain in jobs from active climate and environmental policies
    Large potential in developing countries
    Only decent + green jobs help to meet the tripple challenge
    Environmental
    Social
    Economic
  • EU rational to move to 30% target!What is Africa doing about with the highest renewable potential ?
    "If we stick to a 20% cut, Europe is likely to lose the race to compete in the low-carbon world to countries such as China, Japan or the US, all of which are looking to create a more attractive environment for low-carbon investment," the France, German and UK ministers wrote in the Financial Times 15 July 2010. And Africa?