Miller - Space Science - Spring Review 2013

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Dr. Kent Miller presents an overview of his program, Space Science, at the AFOSR 2013 Spring Review. At this review, Program Officers from AFOSR Technical Divisions will present briefings that highlight basic research programs beneficial to the Air Force.

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Miller - Space Science - Spring Review 2013

  1. 1. 1DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A – Unclassified, Unlimited Distribution15 February 2013 Integrity  Service  Excellence Dr. Kent Miller Program Officer AFOSR/RTB Air Force Research Laboratory 05 March 2013 SPACE SCIENCE
  2. 2. 2DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A – Unclassified, Unlimited Distribution 2013 AFOSR SPRING REVIEW 3001I Space Science Portfolio Overview NAME: Dr. Kent Miller BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF PORTFOLIO: Specifying and forecasting the geospace environment of Earth, extending from the Sun to the Earth’s upper atmosphere, for Situational Awareness and for Space Control SUB-AREAS IN PORTFOLIO: Solar and Heliospheric Physics Magnetospheric Physics Ionospheric and Thermospheric Physics
  3. 3. 3DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A – Unclassified, Unlimited Distribution Why the Air Force interest in Space Sciences? Space Weather Space Weather effects include: • satellite drag • radiation belt perturbations • communication/ navigation/ surveillance
  4. 4. 4DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A – Unclassified, Unlimited Distribution Contacts in Other Funding Agencies Agency POC Science Area NSF Rich Behnke et al. Solar/Terrestrial Relations, Magnetospheric Physics, Aeronomy, Cubesats ONR Scott Budzien Neutral atmosphere and ionosphere NOAA TBD Space Weather predictions NASA Madhulika Guhathakurta Heliophysics (Sun to Earth) NRO Dave Byers Remote sensing of the geospace environment “The DOD’s DURIP has been the single most important activity, with sustained impact, upon the infrastructure at US universities for state-of-the-art training of the next generation of space scientists and engineers.” -- Professor Michael Mendillo, Center for Space Physics, Boston University
  5. 5. 5DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A – Unclassified, Unlimited Distribution Space Science: Overview Thermosphere/ Ionosphere Magnetosphere/ Radiation Belts Solar Physics
  6. 6. 6DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A – Unclassified, Unlimited Distribution The Solar Drivers Solar flares: X rays from solar flares hit Earth in 8 minutes Energetic Particles CMEs Reach Earth in 15 min to 24 hours Reach Earth in 1 to 4 days
  7. 7. STEREO - A
  8. 8. WSA-ENLIL Model: Solar Wind Speed 15 February 2013 DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A – Unclassified, Unlimited Distribution
  9. 9. 9DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A – Unclassified, Unlimited Distribution PI: W. Cao, NJ Institute of Technology First Light Observation with the NIRIS (2012 DURIP) SDO Image NIRIS He-I NIRIS L-O-S Magnetogram
  10. 10. 10DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A – Unclassified, Unlimited Distribution Adaptive Optics with the Big Bear Solar Observatory New Solar Telescope Image obtained with 357 actuator deformable mirror. Center of field has 0”.05 (~20 miles) resolution : Diffraction limited imaging. PI: P. Goode, NJ Institute of Technology
  11. 11. 11DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A – Unclassified, Unlimited Distribution Air Force Data Assimilative Photospheric Flux Transport (ADAPT) Model Motivation: The global solar photospheric magnetic field distribution serves as primary input to all coronal and solar wind models. Approach: ADAPT adds rigorous data assimilation methods developed at Los Alamos to the Nat’l Solar Observatory (NSO) solar photospheric magnetic field flux transport model. AFOSR Star Team! Result: Improved, high quality “snapshots” of the Sun’s global magnetic field used as key input to solar models PI: N. Arge, AFRL/RVB
  12. 12. 12DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A – Unclassified, Unlimited Distribution Modeling Coronal Hole Evolution Open Closed New Active Region 7/14 /2010, 19:41 UTOpen/Closed Field Regions, PFSS* Br and Field Lines PFSS STEREO B 195Å PI: J. Linker, Predictive Science Inc. Use ADAPT to predict the magnetic flux on the Sun, including an active region. The flux-evolved map provides a good prediction of the coronal hole evolution *PFSS = Potential Field Source Surface model
  13. 13. 13DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A – Unclassified, Unlimited Distribution Physics of Solar Flares: Developing Models for Forecasting Goal: to determine if CMEs are associated with solar flares. The project has: (1) automated derivation of flare characteristics (2) catalog/classified the flares (3) used flare characteristics in a Multivariate Discriminant Analysis to diagnose flaring probability Goal is to associate the evolution of flare “bright points” with coronal mass ejections. PI: S. Balasubramaniam, AFRL/RVB
  14. 14. 14DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A – Unclassified, Unlimited Distribution SRAG MAG4 Forecast Tool Active region in upper-left corner produced a Solar Energetic Particle event and geo-effective CME. For each active region a free-energy proxy is measured and converted empirically into a predicted event rate. Forecasts are made daily, and posted at http://www.uah.edu/cspar/research/mag4-page PI: D. Falconer, U. Alabama
  15. 15. 15DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A – Unclassified, Unlimited Distribution FY13 Basic Research Initiative *IMF = interplanetary magnetic field Understanding the Interaction of Coronal Mass Ejections with the Solar-Terrestrial Environment PMs: Kent Miller and John Luginsland Objectives: 1 – Improving forecasting and/or observing the IMF* orientation within the CME; 2 – Coupling CME Models to solar and magnetosphere models; 3- Developing new observation and data processing techniques for CMEs, developing data assimilation capabilities, and coupling new CME/solar wind data into models
  16. 16. Controversy The leading predictions for the amplitude of Sunspot Cycle 24 are widely divergent. Nature, May & June 2006 New Scientist (2006); Sky & Telescope (2007) Dikpati et al. (2006) Svalgaard, Cliver & Kamide (2005) Latest (January 2013) NASA Prediction: 69 in Fall, 2013 Slide from the AFOSR Spring Review - 2008 DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A – Unclassified, Unlimited Distribution
  17. 17. 17DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A – Unclassified, Unlimited Distribution Space Science: Overview Thermosphere/ Ionosphere Magnetosphere/ Radiation Belts Solar Physics
  18. 18. 18DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A – Unclassified, Unlimited Distribution Radiation Belt Dynamics Numerical simulation • Drift-diffusion model • Diffusion attributable to VLF waves radiated by the Naval Communication Station Harold E. Holt (call sign NWC) in western Australia. PI: J. Albert, AFRL/RVB DEMETER satellite data: Intensity of radiation belt electrons precipitating into the atmosphere, as a function of energy E and location L.
  19. 19. 19DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A – Unclassified, Unlimited Distribution Space Science: Overview Thermosphere/ Ionosphere Magnetosphere/ Radiation Belts Solar Physics
  20. 20. 20DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A – Unclassified, Unlimited Distribution Scintillations and Satellite Drag
  21. 21. 21DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A – Unclassified, Unlimited Distribution Observing campaigns are underway at Jicamarca, Peru to measure plasma drifts, densities, temperatures, and composition simultaneously along with wide- and narrow-beam irregularity imaging. The campaign is one of the most complicated ever run at Jicamarca. Goal: model forecast assessment, leading to near real-time ESF forecasting. PI: D. Hysell, Cornell U. Real time ESF forecasting Simulation from Cornell U. model of ESF generation/ evolution
  22. 22. 22DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A – Unclassified, Unlimited Distribution Longitudinal Distribution of Equatorial Plasma Bubbles PI: E. Kassie, Boston College Bubble climatologies: - Bubbles are more active throughout the year in the African region, especially in the dusk sector. - Strong seasonal differences, such as dawn bubbles are stronger in May through August, while dusk bubbles are stronger at equinoxes
  23. 23. 23DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A – Unclassified, Unlimited Distribution Possible Seeding of Bubbles by convective activity Convectively active regions over South America shown by blue color in maps of infrared emissions (left column of panels) ESF (ionograms, right column of panels) appears to be correlated with appearance of convective activity PI: R. Tsunoda, SRI Inc.
  24. 24. 24DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A – Unclassified, Unlimited Distribution Multi-scale nested simulations of ionospheric density disturbances in Equatorial Spread F Objective: high resolution modeling of multi-scale ionospheric dynamics over a limited spatial range in altitude, latitude and longitude Accomplishments: Novel implicit relaxation computational techniques for use in nested mesocale/microscale ionospheric models PI: A. Mahalov, Arizona State U.
  25. 25. 25DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A – Unclassified, Unlimited Distribution Optical Images show the locations of these two boundaries and thus where radio wave disruption locations may occur across the eastern USA. Radio Propagation Disruptions (e.g. amplitude scintillations) occur in two distinct regions of the sub-auroral ionosphere. Use of DURIP Imager to specify Auroral Space Weather Disruption Zones Diffuse Aurora SAR Arc PI: M. Mendillo, Boston U.
  26. 26. 26DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A – Unclassified, Unlimited Distribution First Ever 3-D Image of Internal Structure of Polar Cap Patch Resolute Bay IS radar OMTI red and green channels overlaid PI: J. Semeter, Boston U.
  27. 27. 27DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A – Unclassified, Unlimited Distribution NADIR: Neutral Atmosphere Density Interdisciplinary Research Focus Areas: I. Scales of Density Variability, Winds, and Drag Prediction II. Internal Processes and Thermosphere-Ionosphere Coupling III. Energy Partitioning at High latitudes and Density Implications IV. Wave Forcing from the Lower Atmosphere V. Forecasting Geomagnetic Activity VI. Forecasting Solar EUV/UV Radiation VII. Driver-Response Relationships VIII. Satellite Drag in the Re-entry Region U Colorado USAFA
  28. 28. 28DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A – Unclassified, Unlimited Distribution Transition-ready Physics-Based Thermosphere-Ionosphere Models Over the course of the NADIR MURI the accuracy of the CTIPe* physics-based model has improved and can now match and sometimes exceed the neutral density from empirical models for satellite drag. RMSE= 0.20 RMSE= 0.09 GRACE *CTIPe = Coupled thermosphere ionosphere plasmasphere extended model PI: T. Fuller-Rowell, U. Colorado-Boulder CHAMP
  29. 29. 29DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A – Unclassified, Unlimited Distribution Atmospheric Lunar Tide Adds Significant Satellite Drag Variability ….and that variability is predictable 2007-2010 Averages Lunar Tide from GRACE orbit has a period of 13.56 days recurrent geomagnetic activity lunar tide 360 km 480 km PI: J. Forbes, U. Colorado-Boulder
  30. 30. 30DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A – Unclassified, Unlimited Distribution Thermospheric Overcooling During Some Intense Geomagnetic Storms Why do some geomagnetic storms produce lower than expected neutral density upheaval? . The reduction in neutral density is caused by excess particle deposition in the upper atmosphere, producing nitric oxide. Nitric oxide is an efficient IR radiator that rapidly cools and contracts the upper atmosphere. PI: D. Knipp, U. Colorado
  31. 31. 31DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A – Unclassified, Unlimited Distribution Test prediction that Lanthanide metals spontaneously form dense, long-lived artificial plasma when released into the upper atmosphere Mitigation Strategies: Metal Oxide Space Clouds (MOSC) Quickly Reacts with Ambient Atomic Oxygen Expelled Sm Metal Vapor Sm Sm Sm Sm Sm - - - - - - - - Sm Sm Sm - - Sm SmO+ SmO+ SmO+ SmO+ SmO+ SmO+ SmO+ SmO+ And Spontaneously Ionizes To form dense long-lived SmO+ plasma Terrier-Improved Orion Sounding Rocket O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O Predicted artificial density after 1 hour: 108/cc Typical natural density: 106/cc A few kg of metal vapor potentially dwarfs the natural ionosphere over areas up to 100 km across PI: T. Pedersen, AFRL/RVB AFOSR Star Team!
  32. 32. 32DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A – Unclassified, Unlimited Distribution Mitigaton Strategies: Creation of ionosphere layers *HAARP = High-frequency Active Auroral Research Program PI: C. Fallen, U. Alaska, YIP Descending 557.7 nm “green-line” airglow with UHF radar ion line indicates ionosphere electron acceleration and creation of new ionization Optics Radar 60 km [Fallen, PhD thesis 2010] adapted from [Pedersen et al., GRL 2010] What is the mechanism or mechanisms responsible for the ionization? Estimating the HF-accelerated energetic electron distributions needed to create the observed airglow and ionization is a fundamental step
  33. 33. 33DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A – Unclassified, Unlimited Distribution Physics of the Geospace Response to Powerful HF Radio Waves PI: E. Mishin, AFRL/RVB First evidence of F2-region atmospheric gravity waves generated by HF heating from HAARP observed by the CHAMP and GRACE satellites CHAMP GRACE
  34. 34. 34DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A – Unclassified, Unlimited Distribution FY13 MURI: A New Paradigm in Sources and Physics of High-Power Ionospheric Modification Bring together physicists and engineers from: Space science Ionospheric modification Plasma modeling High power microwave source Examine the question of coupling electromagnetic energy to the ionosphere Develop technology for a mobile source PMs: John Luginsland and Kent Miller
  35. 35. 35DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A – Unclassified, Unlimited Distribution Wrap Up: Trends / Emphasis Focus on projects that enable predictive capabilities for * solar activity * neutral thermospheric densities * scintillations and ionospheric irregularities Maintain projects investigating the radiation belts Decreased support for thermosphere/ionosphere projects that do not address neutral densities or ionospheric scintillations.
  36. 36. 36DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A – Unclassified, Unlimited Distribution Questions?
  37. 37. 37DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A – Unclassified, Unlimited Distribution (Some) Challenges to Progress in Space Sciences Challenge Opportunity? Pursuing? Construction of “Sun to mud” predictive model Need for such a model is obvious. However, cross-scale coupling is a huge challenge. Funding is difficult, particularly in current climate. Discussions with other agencies and community leaders. Predicting solar eruptive events (flares and CMEs) STEREO, Hinode, and SDO are providing extensive datasets and new insights. Assimilative models are evolving, complemented by numerical MHD models and lab investigations. About 1/3 of portfolio is invested in solar physics, with strong ties with personnel in RV. Ongoing collaboration with the National Solar Observatory.
  38. 38. 38DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A – Unclassified, Unlimited Distribution (Some) Challenges to Progress in Space Sciences Challenge Opportunity? Pursuing? Predicting ionospheric irregularities. C/NOFS plus GPS and TEC databases are providing much new information and opportunities for assimilative models. Advances in computation and identification of important physical processes such as gravity waves are contributing much to the goal. Discussions with other agency representatives are ongoing, particularly with NSF and NOAA/SWPC. Forecasting neutral densities 1-3 days ahead Recent satellites CHAMP, GRACE, and RAIDS are providing extensive datasets on neutral densities* FY07 MURI is in final year. Significant contributions in solar activity effects, wave effects, drag coefficients. Transitioning results in collaboration with RVB. Coupling thermosphere/ ionosphere to magnetosphere Has not achieved high visibility or critical mass. Limited funding . Minor; through individual PIs. NSF leads on this topic; collaborate with them.
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