Aeseletropaulo aestiete presentation_2010_santandercancun_finalna

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Aeseletropaulo aestiete presentation_2010_santandercancun_finalna

  1. 1. Institutional November, 2009
  2. 2. AES Brasil Group 7 million clients ... with a 2008 result: Market Share 6 thousand AES People R$ 3.2 billion (Ebitda) R$ 1.7 billion (net income) Discos 14,6% 85,4% Gencos 3,0% 97,0% Investments 1998-2008: R$ 5 billion after privatization AES Brasil Disco Genco Trading Co. Telecom Others 2
  3. 3. Shareholding structure AES Corp BNDES C 50.00% + 1 share C 50.00% - 1 share O = Common Shares P 0.00% T 46.15% P = Preferred Shares T = Total Cia. Brasiliana de Energia C 76.46% C 71.35% C 99.99% C 100.00% C 98.26% P 7.43% P 32.34% C 99.99 % T 99.76% T 99.99% T 100.00% T 98.26% T 34.80% T 52.55% T 99.99 % AES AES AES AES AES AES AES EP Sul Infoenergy Uruguaiana Com RJ Eletropaulo Tietê Telecom 3
  4. 4. Shareholding composition Federal Government or Free Float Eletrobras1 16.1% 19.7% 8.0% 56.2% 24.2% 28.3% 7.9% 39.5% 1 – Federal Government and Eletrobrás correspond to AES Eletropaulo and AES Tietê, respectively 4
  5. 5. Energy sector agents in Brazil Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME) (Set Guidelines and Policies) National Council of Energy Policy (CNPE) (Formulates Policies) Electricity Sector Brazilian Electricity Energy Research Surveillance Regulatory Agency Enterprise (EPE) Committee (CMSE) (ANEEL) (Monitors energy supply) (Ruling, Inspection & Auditing, (Generation & Transmission Monitoring, and Mediation) Planning) Distribution companies Electric Energy Transmission System Operator Commercialization companies (ONS) Chamber (CCEE) Generation Generator resources Pricing and clearing of scheduling and dispatch energy transactions companies Trading companies 5
  6. 6. Energy sector in Brazil (Contracting Environment) Regulated Market Free Market Auctions Spot Market PPAs1 Distribution Companies Trading Companies Trading Companies Free Clients Free Clients • Main auctions (reverse auctions): Distribution – New Energy (A-5): Delivery in 5 years, 15-30 Companies years regulated PPA – New Energy (A-3): Delivery in 3 years, 15-30 years regulated PPA – Existing Energy (A-1): Delivery in 1 year, 5-15 years PPA 6 1 – Power Purchase Agreement
  7. 7. Discos regulatory methodology (Tariff Reset and Adjustment) Tariff Readjustment and Reset • Tariff Reset is applied each 3 to 5 years • Parcel A Costs − AES Eletropaulo: each 4 years − Non-manageable costs that totally Energy pass- through to the tariff − AES Sul: each 5 years Purchase − Losses reduction improve the pass- − Parcel A costs pass trough the tariff Transmission through effectiveness − Parcel B costs are set by ANEEL Sector Charges • Tariff Adjustment: annually Reference • Reference Company: − Parcel A costs pass trough the tariff Company – Efficient cost structure, determined by (PMSO) − Parcel B cost are adjusted by IGPM +/- X(1) ANEEL (National Electricity Agency) Factor X WACC Investment Remuneration • Remuneration Asset Base: Remuneration Asset – Applicable investments used to Base calculate the Investment Remuneration X Depreciation Depreciation (applying WACC) and Depreciation Regulatory Parcel A Non-Manageable Costs Ebitda (1) X Factor: index that capture productivity gains Parcel B Manageable Costs 7
  8. 8. AES Eletropaulo overview Concession Area • Largest electricity distribution company in Latin America • Serving 24 municipalities in the São Paulo Metropolitan area São Paulo Metropolitan Area • Concession area with the highest GDP in Brazil: – 17.1% of the Brazilian GDP and 50.3% of São Paulo’s state GDP • 46 thousand kilometers of lines • 4,526 km2 of concession area • 1.1 million electricity poles • 4,143 employees Regional West Regional North Regional South Regional ABC • 5.9 million of consumption units Regional East • Total distributed volume of 41 TWh in 2008 Note – Data as of Sept. 2009, except GDP which is 2006 9
  9. 9. Ranking¹ for energy distributors 8.000 7.000 Net Revenue - R$ MM 6.000 5.000 2007 2008 4.000 3.000 2.000 Net Revenue 1st 1st 1.000 CPFL PAULISTA BANDEIRANTE PIRATININGA ELETROPAULO AMPLA COELBA ELEKTRO COELCE CELESC COPEL CELPE CEMIG CELG LIGHT CPFL AES 1.800 1.600 Ebitda - R$ MM 1.400 1.200 1.000 800 Ebitda 2nd 1st 600 400 200 CPFL PAULISTA ELETROPAULO PIRATININGA AMAZONAS COELBA ELEKTRO AMPLA CEMAR COELCE COPEL CEMIG CELPE LIGHT RGE CPFL AES 10 1 – Source: ABRADEE (Brazilian Association of Energy Distributors); research among 48 energy distributors in Brazil.
  10. 10. Consumption evolution Total Market - (GWh)1 9M09 Consumption Share - (GWh)1 + 8% 8% 6% 17% 41,243 37% 39,932 38,183 7,383 7,355 30,730 14% 6,527 30,377 410 5,625 5,024 26% 31,656 32,577 33,860 25,105 25,353 CAGR 2006-08 Residential +7% 2006 2007 2008 9M08 9M09 Commercial +2% Free Clients Captive market Free Clients +6% Industrial +0% Others +2% 1 – Own consumption not considered 11
  11. 11. Most important consumption classes Residential - (GWh) Commercial - (GWh) + 5% + 3% 3,978 11,214 7,850 3,742 10,708 2,657 2,625 7,603 3,494 2,567 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 9M08 9M09 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 9M08 9M09 Industrial - (GWh) Captive Market¹ - (GWh) - 11% + 1% 4,878 25,353 4,337 25,104 1,546 8,742 1,465 8,493 1,327 8,118 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 9M08 9M09 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 9M08 9M09 1 – Own consumption not considered 12
  12. 12. Investments amounted up to R$ 324 million in 9M09 Investments Breakdown – R$ million Investments 9M09 523 8% 4% 4% 457 55 433 16% 45% 47 378 69 324 77 305 26 468 22% 36 27% 410 364 301 269 298 Customer Service and Maintenance System Expansion Customer Financed IT 2006 2007 2008 2009e 9M08 9M09 Loss Recovery Others Capex Paid by customers 13
  13. 13. SAIDI & SAIFI SAIDI - System Average Interruption Duration Index SAIFI - System Average Interruption Frequency Index 11.81 11.34 10.92 8.61 8.49 8.41 8.90 9.20 11.01 7.87 5.52 5.64 5.78 5.20 2006 2007 2008 9M09¹ 2006 2007 2008 9M09¹ 3rd 3rd 5th 3rd 1st 1st SAIDI (hours) SAIDI Aneel Target SAIFI (times) SAIFI Aneel Target ABRADEE ranking position between 28 distributors with over 500 thousand consumers 1 – Last twelve months Source: ABRADEE, ANEEL e AES Eletropaulo 14
  14. 14. Operational indexes Collection Rate – % over gross revenue Losses – % - 1.3 b.p. - 0.4 b.p. 101.4 99.1 99.5 97.8 97.7 12.0 11.6 11.6 11.8 11.5 5.5 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 2006 2007 2008 9M08 9M09 2006 2007 2008 9M081 9M091 Commercial Losses Technical Losses² • Disconnections and Reconnection – Monthly Average (9M08 X • Fraud and Illegal Connections (9M09) 9M09) – 271,000 inspections e 32,000 frauds detected – Disconnections: increase from 233 thousand to 733 thousand – 57,000 illegal connections regularized – Reconnection: increase from 248 thousand to 488 thousand • Past due bill credit report (9M09 average): 190 thousand 1 – Last 12 months 2 - Current Technical Losses used retroactively as reference 15
  15. 15. Net revenue of R$ 5.9 billion in 9M09 Net Revenue – R$ million Ebitda – R$ million 2003 2007 EMBI+ BR 4.63% 2.21% Regulatory WACC (%) Selic target 16.50% 11.25% + 10% 17.1 15.1 7,529 7,193 6,852 1,766 1,566 1,696 5,855 5,540 1,140 1,143 2006 2007 2008 9M08 9M09 2006 2007 2008 9M08 9M09 16
  16. 16. Net income of R$ 538 million in 9M09 Net Income – R$ million Dividend payout1 – R$ million Dividends Pay-out Yield2 PNB + 175% 100.3% 101.5% 1,027 34.9% 14.4% 20.3% 713 3.2% 538 1,043 496 373 715 323 130 2006 2007 2008 9M08 9M09 2006 2007 2008 9M09 • 25% of minimum pay-out according to bylaw • Practice on semi-annual basis of maximum permitted dividend distribution, since 2006 results • Yield2 of 6.3% and pay-out² of 106.7% 1 – Gross amount 2 – Considered 1st semester data 17
  17. 17. R$ 663 million paid as dividends in 2009 Managerial Cash Flow – R$ million 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 Initial Cash 1,454 1,373 1,536 1,258 989 Operating Cash Flow 613 491 301 448 798 Investments (107) (126) (104) (113) (116) Net Financial Expenses (107) (37) (113) (45) (98) Net Amortizations (21) (40) (184) (54) (35) CESP Foundation (32) (46) (58) (56) (53) Income Tax (68) (80) (119) (83) (45) Dividends (359) - - (366) (297) Free Cash Flow (81) 162 (278) (269) 155 Final Cash 1,373 1,536 1,258 989 1,143 18
  18. 18. Debt profile Net Debt Amortization Schedule – R$ million 2.1x 1.3x 1.4x 1.2x 1,532 3.7 3.0 78 2.5 2.7 10 62 66 70 524 80 41 75 375 250 250 250 125 3 50 2006 2007 2008 9M09 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016-2028 Net Debt (R$ billion) Local Currency (w/out Pension Fund) Pension Fund Foreign Currency2 Net Debt / Adjusted Ebitda1 • September, 2009: – Average debt cost is 116.5% of CDI3 per year which means an effective rate of 13.9% per year – Average debt maturity is 7.3 years 1 - Last 12 months of adjusted Ebitda 2 – Exchange rate in 09/30/2009 – US$ 1.00 = R$ 1.7781 3 - Brazil’s Interbank Interest Rate19
  19. 19. Capital market AES Eletropaulo1 X Ibovespa X IEE Average Daily Volume3 - R$ thousand YTD ’09 170 64% C 64% 26,066 25,677 150 B 46% 21,187 A 130 7,508 110 90 dec-082 jan-09 feb-09 mar-09 apr-09 may-09 jun-09 jul-09 aug-09 sep-09 2006 2007 2008 9M09 ELPL6 IEE IBOV • A) 25/02/2009 – Finsocial and São Paulo municipality agreement • B) 16/04/2009 - Public Consultation of Tariff Reset • C) 16/06/2009 – Conclusion of Second Periodic Tariff Reset 1 – Shares were adjusted by declared dividend of the period under analysis 2 – Data Base: 12/28/07 = 100 20
  20. 20. AES Tietê overview Concession Area • 30 year concession, expires in 2029, renewable for another 30 years • 10 hydroelectric plants in the State of São Paulo at Tietê, Pardo and Mogi Guaçu rivers Atlantic Ocean • Installed capacity of 2,657 MW, with assured energy1 of 1,280 MW Name and Installed Capacity of AES Tietê’s Plants: Água Vermelha (1,396 MW) Ibitinga (132 MW) • 100% of assured energy contracted with AES Nova Avanhandava (347 MW) Euclides da Cunha (109 MW) Eletropaulo until the end of 2015 Promissão (264 MW) Caconde (80 MW) Barra Bonita (141 MW) Limoeiro (32 MW) • 310 employees Bariri (143 MW) Mogi-Guaçu (7 MW) 1 - Amount of energy allowed to be long term contracted 22
  21. 21. Operational Performance Energy Generation – MW average Billed Energy – GWh2 September ’09 Prices (R$ / MWh) 129% AES Eletropaulo 152.00 MRE 8.18 121% 118% Spot (9M09 avg.) 39.68 112% 1,646 13,421 1,543 12,774 13,148 1,424 1,510 573 330 10,728 536 10,336 1,740 1,680 607 1,130 327 1,571 1,663 11,108 11,108 11,138 8,346 8,550 2006 2007 2008 9M09 2006 2007 2008 9M08 9M09 Generation – MW average Generation / Assured Energy2 AES Eletropaulo MRE1 Spot Market 1 - Energy Reallocation Mechanism 2 - Amount of energy allowed to be long term contracted 23
  22. 22. Investments Investments – R$ million 9M09 Investments New SHPP’s1 Investments 63 59 14 51 47 33% 8 20 12 33 49 3% 45% 11 43 39 19% 35 22 2006 2007 2008 2009(e) 9M09 Equip. and Maint. New SHPPs • 9M09 x 9M08: higher reforestation expending, due to IT Environment Carbon Credit Project, partially offset by lower investments on Piabanha SHPP 1- Small Hydro Power Plant Jaguari Mirim and Piabanha 24
  23. 23. Expansion requirement of 15%  Increase installed capacity in Sao Paulo State by 15% (400 MW), either in greenfield projects or through long term purchase agreement with new plants  The obligation was supposed to be accomplished by December 2007, however AES Tietê was not able to comply with this requirement due to the following restrictions: – Insufficient remaining hydro resources within the State of São Paulo – Environmental restrictions – Insufficiency of gas supply / timing issue – More restricted regulation on energy sale established by the New Model of Electric Sector (Law # 10,848/2004) which eliminated the self dealing • In August 2008, Aneel informed that the issue is not linked to the concession • Popular law action against Federal Government, Aneel, AES Tietê, and Duke – Status: Defense filed on first instance in October 2008 by AES Tietê. In December, 2008, the author replied AES Tietê defense and, since this, both parties are waiting judge movement about the necessity of proves production • On July 27, 2009, AES Tietê was notified by the State Government Attorney’s Office to present arguments on compliance with the expansion obligation – The Company filed a response on July, 29th, which exhausts the procedure for notification. Possible deployment depends on new manifestation of the Prosecution 25
  24. 24. Projects expansion requirement AES Tietê has been seeking opportunities to increase its installed capacity to comply with the 15% increase requirement in the State of São Paulo • 6MW of co-generation by biomass contracted for 15 years (initiating in 2010) Concluded Concluded (PPA1)) (PPA1 • 7 MW of hydropower generation through SHPPs2 in Jaguari Mirim river In Progress In Progress – SHPP São José (4 MW) is expected to begin the operation in 1H10 – SHPP São Joaquim (3 MW) is expected to begin the operation in 1H10 Under Under • 500 MW of natural gas fired thermo plant Evaluation Evaluation – In stage of defining plant location • 32 MW of hydropower generation through SHPPs under technical and economic viability study 26 1 - Power Purchase Agreement 2 - Small Hydro Power Plant
  25. 25. Net revenue of R$ 1.3 billion in 9M09 Net Revenue – R$ million Ebitda – R$ million + 17% + 14% 1,621 1,254 1,464 1,387 1,097 1,099 1,277 1,028 1,186 936 2006 2007 2008 9M08 9M09 2006 2007 2008 9M08 9M09 27
  26. 26. Sustainable profitability and dividend payment Net Income – R$ million Dividend Payout1 – R$ million Dividends Pay-out Yield PN2 + 13% 100 % 100 % 100 % 12% 10% 12% 692 614 609 636 636 692 495 614 609 2006 2007 2008 9M08 9M09 2006 2007 2008 9M09 • 25% of minimum pay-out according to bylaw • Practice on quarterly basis of maximum permitted dividend distribution, since 2006 results • Yield2 of 9.4% and pay-out of 100% in 9M09 1 - Gross amount 2 - Average Weighted Price during the Period 28
  27. 27. Strong cash flow Managerial Cash Flow – R$ million 3T08 4T08 1T09 2T09 3T09 Initial Cash 673 783 836 812 639 Operating Cash Flow 340 337 297 332 316 Investments (14) (22) (9) (8) (14) Net Financial Expenses (13) (7) (6) (13) (15) Net Amortization (50) (52) (53) (55) (58) Income Tax (19) (17) (252) (20) (19) Dividends and IoE (134) (188) 0 (409) (199) Free Cash Flow 110 53 (24) (173) 12 Final Cash – Parent Company 783 836 812 639 651 Final Cash of Subs. And Assoc. Comp 5 5 2 2 1 Final Cash 788 840 814 641 652 29
  28. 28. Debt Net Debt 0.6x 0.6x 0.3x 0.3x • Eletrobras Debt 0.7 0.7 – Balance: R$ 1,029 million 0.4 0.4 – Monthly amortization – Maturity: May 15, 2013 – Interest of 10% p.a. and monetary adjustment of IGP-M 2006 2007 2008 9M09 Net Debt (R$ billion) Net Debt / Ebitda 30
  29. 29. Capital market AES Tietê1 X Ibovespa X IEE Daily Average Volume - R$ thousand 10,109 9M092 190 9,067 8,160 + 64% 160 8,106 + 46% 5,760 5,531 + 40% 5,468 130 4,188 100 3,566 2,692 2,003 1,572 70 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 2006 2007 2008 9M09 GETI4 IBOV IEE Preferred Common 1 – Shares were adjusted by declared dividend of the period under analysis 2 – Data Base: 12/30/08 =100 31
  30. 30. Social Responsibility and Environmental Actions
  31. 31. Social Responsibility Volunteering Program distributing Acting to Enterprising in Energy of Transform the Community Good Specific social mobilization or Opportunities for volunteering in Acknowledgement and emergency campaign. social organizations, which are support of projects for the partners of AES Brazil development of social organizations. Winter clothes, Christmas Co-workers can enroll in campaign, among others. volunteer activities available at Volunteers may submit AES Brazil volunteering portal projects to help other since September/09 organizations develop. Launch www.energiadobem.com.br scheduled for January/10. • Launched in December,2008; • Objective: to get the co-workers committed to the transformation of low income communities and development of non-governmental institutions • 1,100 volunteers 33
  32. 32. Social Responsibility “Casa da Cultura e Cidadania” Project • Over 6 thousand children, teenagers, and adults have been benefited • Own and incentive investments: approximately R$ 14 million in 2009 • Activities of acting, dancing, circus arts, visual arts, music, gymnastics, courses of income generation, and education of safe use of electrical power and the right use of natural resources • 5 units operating and another one to be launched in the municipality of Osasco in November, 2009 “Centros Educacionais Infantis Luz e Lápis” - Project • 302 benefited children between 1 and 6 years old • Own investments amounting R$ 1.5 million in 2009 • Units: Santo Amaro and Guarapiranga 34
  33. 33. Environmental actions • Carbon Credit – Clean Development Methodology (CDM) approved by United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), allows up to 10,000 hectare reforestation on reservoir borders – AES Tietê is seeking for good business opportunities, and has not transacted credits so far • Reforestation – One million of seedlings production in seed-plot of Promissão hydroelectric power plant – Donation of seedlings to the society, rural producers, city halls, and non-governmental organizations • Fish Farming – Reproduction of 2.5 million fishes in 10 reservoirs of AES Tiete's plants • Archeological Park – Community involvement into archeological artifacts conservation and better understanding of its scientific importance – Social access to the archeological history of the reservoir area 35
  34. 34. Contacts: ri.eletropaulo@aes.com ri.aestiete@aes.com + 55 11 2195 7048 The statements contained in this document with regard to the business prospects, projected operating and financial results, and growth potential are merely forecasts based on the expectations of the Company’s Management in relation to its future performance. Such estimates are highly dependent on market behavior and on the conditions affecting Brazil’s macroeconomic performance as well as the electric sector and international market, and they are therefore subject to changes.

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