StrataNY_2011_ferrari
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StrataNY_2011_ferrari

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Talk at Strata Summit, NY Sept 2011

Talk at Strata Summit, NY Sept 2011

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StrataNY_2011_ferrari StrataNY_2011_ferrari Presentation Transcript

  • Atmospheric Analytics Michael Ferrari CSC
  • Atmospheric Analytics How has weather & climate data availability changed?How are smart businesses are relying on, and profiting from, the ubiquitous weather & climate data? WCI: Technology/Methodology transfer What is on the horizon/NASA-NCCS….?
  • Source: NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
  • Source: NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
  • Mount Washington, NHDimbokro, Cote-d’Ivoire
  • Weather Black Swans Source: Weather Trends International
  • From J. Schnase, NASA
  • Source: Lloyds, Forecasting Risk, 2011 Source: National Center for Environmental Prediction
  • Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research Applications MERRA: Publicly available, 28 Physical Parameters 1979-present Source: NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, MERRA
  • Network Analysis – Reanalysis data application Source: Elsner et al, Geophys. Res. Ltrs, 2009
  • Applying WCI to Global Food Supply & Price Risk Management (C) (B) (E) (E) (C) (A) (A) (D) (D) (F) (B)
  • Food Production
  • Food Production Extreme Events(Pakistan Floods)
  • Food Production Extreme Events(Pakistan Floods) Monsoon Activity
  • New Business Models will emerge Combining Strata with Where
  • New Business Models will emerge Mining Environmental Sensor Network data Source: NSF CyberInfrastructure Report, 2003
  • New Business Models will emerge Scientific Data Services: Climate Data Service
  • WDGD?
  • Apply Climate &Weather Informatics toDo Things That Matter
  • 35/40
  • MERRA Diagnostics – Reanalysis data for applied models
  • MERRA Diagnostics – Reanalysis data for applied models
  • WCI Summary• Applying climate indices to scenario planning is the classic case of ‘Decision Making Under Uncertainty’. However, using a traditional forecast as an operational tool is difficult beyond a 7-10 day window (introduction of error, etc.)• With more data and more tools to analyze data, current climate indices can be applied, as well as new climate indices developed (teleconnections)• Risk Quantification becomes an operational issue as well as a financial issue• NASA/NOAA data repositories are a wonderful testbed for the applied data scientist• Use reanalysis information (NASA/NOAA) to monitor, and adjust, prior assumptions. Flexibility enables robustness.
  • WWDD?
  • Thanks • Edd Dumbill • Mac Slocum • John Schnase, PhD • Phil Webster, PhD • Dan Walker, PhD