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Palestinian Israeli Conflict
 

Palestinian Israeli Conflict

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Palestinian Israeli Conflict Palestinian Israeli Conflict Presentation Transcript

  • Team Palestinian-Israeli Conflict
    1
  • Requirement
    What are the prospects for a Palestinian-Israeli comprehensive peace deal in the next three years?
    • Where are areas of compromise and areas of disagreement likely during these negotiations?
    • What are the likely conditions in order for Hamas and Fatah to reconcile?
    • What are the likely areas of leverage in the negotiations?
    • How will select geopolitically relevant entities influence negotiations?
    2
  • Three Way Red Team
    3
  • Key Findings
    Highly unlikely there will be a comprehensive Palestinian-Israeli peace deal in the next three years due primarily to:
    Hamas’s inability to be an accountable political entity
    West’s view of Hamas
    Israel’s reluctance on settlements
    4
  • Hamas’s inability to be an accountable political entity
    Operation Cast Lead
    Hamas failure to sign reconciliation treaty
    5
    Post Operation Cast Lead Gaza January 2009
  • West’s view of Hamas as a terrorist organization
    Israel’s refusal to recognize Hamas
    Hamas stated Israel should not be trusted
    Hamas called for renewing bombing attacks
    6
    Hamas militant groups often fire rockets into Israel
  • Israel’s reluctance to negotiate on settlements with Fatah
    Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu refuses to freeze settlements
    Palestinian Authority President MahmoudAbbas refuses to negotiate without settlement freeze
    7
    Palestinian Authority President MahmoudAbbas
  • 8
    E1
  • Recent Developments
    Hamas rejects Egyptian reconciliation
    Abbas proposes elections
    Abbas threatens to not run
    Central Election Committee calls off elections
    Fatah proposes independence at UN
    9
    Palestinian elections have been delayed by the Central Election Committee
  • Negotiations and Compromises
    1967 borders
    Settlements in Jerusalem and West Bank
    East Jerusalem as the Palestinian capital
    10
    Original 1967 borders
  • Palestinian Reconciliation
    Hamas’s political popularity
    Negotiated permanent party status or percentage of parliamentary seats guaranteed
    11
    Hamas and Fatah popularity levels of 2008 and 2009
  • Leverage Point for Israel over Fatah
    Highly likely best interest to keep Fatah and Hamas separate
    Settlements
    Roadblocks and checkpoints
    12
    Israeli checkpoint influences West Bank economy
  • Leverage Points for Israel over Hamas
    Israel’s economic blockade on the Gaza Strip
    Likely the loss of funds from tunnels makes Hamas’s administration look incompetent
    13
    Smuggling tunnels are primary economic source for Gaza
  • Leverage Points of Hamas over Israel
    Tunnel system
    International community
    Terrorist operations
    14
    Hamas’s actions affect international opinion
  • Threats from Hamas to Hamas
    Gazan reconstruction under Hamas control
    Right wing militant organizations
    15
    Islamic militant groups pose a threat to Gazan control
  • Leverage Points for Hamas over Fatah
    Hamas can bash Abbas individually, but not Fatah
    Opportunity increase appeal
    16
    Abbas’s popularity is declining
  • Leverage Points for Fatah over Hamas
    A Palestinian reconciliation between Hamas and Fatah
    17
    Reconciliation between Hamas and Fatah is highly unlikely
  • Leverage points for Fatah over Israel
    U.S. training of Palestinian soldiers
    Fatah can bring international pressure on Israel
    18
    U.S. trained Palestinian soldiers
  • 19
    Ongoing Developments
    Methodology Used:
    Analysis of Competing Hypothesis
  • 20
    Ongoing Developments Con’t
  • Additional Opportunities
    It is likely in Israel, Hamas and Fatah's self interests to implement a three state solution:
    Exchange Gazanterritory for control of Jerusalem
    Israel and Fatah already are moving in this direction by excluding Hamas
    21
  • Thank You
    Questions?
    22
    Geopolitical Relevant Countries:
    Chelsea Buckley
    cbuckl47@mercyhurst.edu
    Team Hamas:
    Amanda Ehrbar
    aehrba18@mercyhurst.edu
    Emily Galuszka
    egalus89@mercyhurst.edu
    Team Fatah:
    Chris Meacham
    cmeach77@mercyhurst.edu
    John Rodgers
    jrodge31@mercyhurst.edu
    Team Israel:
    Brian Oates
    boates60@mercyhurst.edu
    Lindsey Helfrey
    Lindsey.helfrey@gmail.com