Requirement What are the prospects for a Palestinian-Israeli comprehensive peace deal in the next three years?
Where are areas of compromise and areas of disagreement likely during these negotiations?
What are the likely conditions in order for Hamas and Fatah to reconcile?
What are the likely areas of leverage in the negotiations?
How will select geopolitically relevant entities influence negotiations?
Three Way Red Team 3
Key Findings Highly unlikely there will be a comprehensive Palestinian-Israeli peace deal in the next three years due primarily to: Hamas’s inability to be an accountable political entity West’s view of Hamas Israel’s reluctance on settlements 4
Hamas’s inability to be an accountable political entity Operation Cast Lead Hamas failure to sign reconciliation treaty 5 Post Operation Cast Lead Gaza January 2009
West’s view of Hamas as a terrorist organization Israel’s refusal to recognize Hamas Hamas stated Israel should not be trusted Hamas called for renewing bombing attacks 6 Hamas militant groups often fire rockets into Israel
Israel’s reluctance to negotiate on settlements with Fatah Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu refuses to freeze settlements Palestinian Authority President MahmoudAbbas refuses to negotiate without settlement freeze 7 Palestinian Authority President MahmoudAbbas
Recent Developments Hamas rejects Egyptian reconciliation Abbas proposes elections Abbas threatens to not run Central Election Committee calls off elections Fatah proposes independence at UN 9 Palestinian elections have been delayed by the Central Election Committee
Negotiations and Compromises 1967 borders Settlements in Jerusalem and West Bank East Jerusalem as the Palestinian capital 10 Original 1967 borders
Palestinian Reconciliation Hamas’s political popularity Negotiated permanent party status or percentage of parliamentary seats guaranteed 11 Hamas and Fatah popularity levels of 2008 and 2009
Leverage Point for Israel over Fatah Highly likely best interest to keep Fatah and Hamas separate Settlements Roadblocks and checkpoints 12 Israeli checkpoint influences West Bank economy
Leverage Points for Israel over Hamas Israel’s economic blockade on the Gaza Strip Likely the loss of funds from tunnels makes Hamas’s administration look incompetent 13 Smuggling tunnels are primary economic source for Gaza
Leverage Points of Hamas over Israel Tunnel system International community Terrorist operations 14 Hamas’s actions affect international opinion
Threats from Hamas to Hamas Gazan reconstruction under Hamas control Right wing militant organizations 15 Islamic militant groups pose a threat to Gazan control
Leverage Points for Hamas over Fatah Hamas can bash Abbas individually, but not Fatah Opportunity increase appeal 16 Abbas’s popularity is declining
Leverage Points for Fatah over Hamas A Palestinian reconciliation between Hamas and Fatah 17 Reconciliation between Hamas and Fatah is highly unlikely
Leverage points for Fatah over Israel U.S. training of Palestinian soldiers Fatah can bring international pressure on Israel 18 U.S. trained Palestinian soldiers
19 Ongoing Developments Methodology Used: Analysis of Competing Hypothesis
20 Ongoing Developments Con’t
Additional Opportunities It is likely in Israel, Hamas and Fatah's self interests to implement a three state solution: Exchange Gazanterritory for control of Jerusalem Israel and Fatah already are moving in this direction by excluding Hamas 21
Thank You Questions? 22 Geopolitical Relevant Countries: Chelsea Buckley email@example.com Team Hamas: Amanda Ehrbar firstname.lastname@example.org Emily Galuszka email@example.com Team Fatah: Chris Meacham firstname.lastname@example.org John Rodgers email@example.com Team Israel: Brian Oates firstname.lastname@example.org Lindsey Helfrey Lindsey.email@example.com