ninakix ninakix by vkhosla Taking developers hostage #SFriot 1 Nov Favorite Retweet Reply darian314 Darian Shirazi by vkhosla If SFPD has any trouble getting around the city, I hear Ubercab is available. #sfscanner from SoMa, San Francisco 1 Nov ninakix ninakix by vkhosla Painting solar panels black #SFriot 1 Nov dsrsleepy Sleepy by vkhosla If SFPD wised up, they&apos;d read the #sfriot hash tag for &quot;I&apos;m about to light this here trash can on fire at ______&quot; 1 Nov rembry Raymond Embry IV by vkhosla Do I get a riot bage for checking into a riot? #SFRiot 1 Nov levie Aaron Levie by vkhosla If you run into any great developers at the #SFRiot, please send them our way. 1 Nov gaberivera Gabe Rivera by vkhosla &quot;... 10-4 ... If we can&apos;t disperse them, let&apos;s gradually push them all into the Tenderloin&quot; #sfscanner #sfriot 1 Nov BetoIII Beto Juarez III by vkhosla RT @ninakix: Setting fire to compost; using fair trade matches#SFriot 1 Nov donnyo Don Otvos by vkhosla I&apos;m carrying my groceries in *plastic bags* #SFRiot from Forest Hill Extension, San Francisco 1 Nov _Ame_Rican_Kid_ Blog by AmeRican Kid by vkhosla Leaving the milk out overnight #SFRiot 1 Nov TravTurn Travis Turney by vkhosla The #SFriot is a GOP plot to jail all the pro #Prop19 voters and boot Pelosi out of office! 1 Nov _Ame_Rican_Kid_ Blog by AmeRican Kid by vkhosla Sending twitpics of me eating meat to PETa #SFRiot 1 Nov cameo Cameo Wood by vkhosla I&apos;m in the middle of a riot, and I&apos;m at my house! #sfriot (@ Riot w/ 2 others) http://4sq.com/bGIUAl from Nob Hill, San Francisco 1 Nov jody_beth Jody by vkhosla New word for when L.A.-hating Bay Area residents get a riot of their own: HYPHOCRISY #enlightenment #superiority #sfriot 1 Nov alexia Alexia Tsotsis by vkhosla Wow, all this fuss over a football game! #SFRiot 1 Nov dsrsleepy Sleepy by vkhosla Twitter is officialy more entertaining than anything on TV right now.#sfscanner #sfriot 1 Nov davidu David Ulevitch by vkhosla If Prop19 were already law then all these rioters would be at home waiting for Dominos to deliver some pizza. :-) #sfriot #Sfgiants 1 Nov nicorn7 Nicholas Cornelius by vkhosla cnn.com has nothing about the #SFRiot Looks like twitter wins again? #sfscanner 1 Nov rcymozart Robert Yocum by vkhosla .@socialscope they just want a public beta. #nothingtoseehere#sfriot 1 Nov susanbeebe Susan Beebe by vkhosla Only in SF!! Haha!! :D &gt;&gt;&gt; RT @Stammy: some guy in the #sfriotis holding a light saber... http://bit.ly/9TxXmn 1 Nov chris_stevenson Chris Stevenson by vkhosla Looking for an iPad enabled live feed of #SFRiot. The revolution must be being streamed somewhere ! from here 1 Nov jproulx Jesse Proulx by vkhosla Letting my dog poop on the grass and not picking it up #SFRiot 1 Nov dailymobilenews Daily Mobile News by vkhosla Daily Mobile News: SF Giants win World Series, ensuing riots hit Foursquare, Twitter and Ustream #SFRiot http://bit.ly/aZvHDS#smartphone 1 Nov vkhosla Vinod Khosla RT @Mitzula How hard is it to light Hybrids and Electric Cars on fire??? #SFRiot 1 Nov vkhosla Vinod Khosla SF Riotous RT @gaberivera I just threw a recyclable into the regular, non-recyclable trash bin #SFRiot 1 Nov johnmaeda johnmaeda by vkhosla Why institutions matter (= they provide safe environments in which to fail). via Malcolm Gladwell. http://risd.cc/chOAbO 1 Nov vkhosla Vinod Khosla @ @chloenighthorse I like it
Mckinsey : US mobile subscribers
Source: American Heritage Magazine - http://www.americanheritage.com/articles/magazine/it/2007/3/2007_3_8.shtml
1986 forecast for 2000
yesterday’s technology, tomorrow’s forecast
1980’s phone: year 2000 phone:
300,000 available apps
7bn+ apps downloaded
the folly of predictions: tetlock study
hundreds of experts.
80,000+ “expert” forecasts & 20+ years
results: experts about the same accuracy
as dart-throwing monkeys
"Cynics never do the impossible, achieve the
improbable, take on the inadvisable.
Hope is only path to extraordinary success."
-140 characters that millions of people follow
-Can tell the mood of a nation
-Creates an instantaneous backchannel
-Formation of a personal brand
Did not exist 5 years ago!
Today: More than 100 million users
65 million tweets are posted each day
Could McKinsey or an analyst have predicted
Predicted 140 chars as “culture assessment tool”?
…the sources of innovation
Google, Facebook, Twitter : Fox, NBC, CBS
Amazon : Walmart
First Solar : Shell & BP Solar
Cree : GE
Big companies vs. innovators
Focus on Process
Focus on DCF, NPV, EPS
Careful not to fail
“Push” into the market
Focus on Vision
Invent new Markets/Paths
Ignore financial analysis
How to/not to
Financial tools: DCF,
Stage gate development
or effectual reasoning?
Top down market
analysis or evolution?
customer wish list or passion
for a vision?
Innovation according to the press
Business Week Fast Company
What has surprised you?
Source: Businessweek, Fast Company
5 years out, the group’s
market cap has grown…
winners take (almost) all
Starting Industry Structure
But leaders far exceed the also-rans
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
New Computing Cycle Characteristics
Computing Growth Drivers Over Time, 1960 – 2020E
Note: PC installed base reached 100MM in 1993, cellphone / Internet users reached 1B in 2002 / 2005 respectively;
Source: ITU, Mark Lipacis, Morgan Stanley Research.
The old don’t innovate – the new “create the future”
Note: Winners from 1950s to 1980s based on Fortune 500 rankings (revenue-based), desktop Internet winners based on
wealth created from 1995 to respective peak market capitalizations. Source: Factset, Fortune, Morgan Stanley Research.
as surely as...
1985: NOT a PC in every home
1990: NO email for grandma
1995: NOT the internet
2000: NO pervasive mobile, seacrh
2005: NO social media / iphone
2008: NO Goldman/Morgan
2010+: reason for optimism 21
Existing static products…
Difficult to predict the future, when innovation
is the name of the game
what will it be?
curation vs. creation of online content
privacy vs. personalization
where will HTML 5 lead?
discovery vs. recommendation
curation of goods in the real world?
who do you trust? Friends, experts, crowd?
mvp with rapid iteration vs. better game play & production value?
not yet done…
Analysis: Network, behavior,…
privacy & authentication
Anticipate needs (agents)
“The fine line separating the delusional
from the visionaries amongst us is often
not foresight, but rather hindsight.”
1.It is not possible to convert a gasoline engine to a Diesel, using the same transfer line. I did it
and it is the most successful Diesel in the world and it was copied by everybody.
2.The combustion for a high speed Diesel is not possible. I started production with a 5000 rpm
Diesel with 2000 engines/day on the gasoline engine transfer line.
3. You cannot use a rubber toothed belt to drive the camshaft and the injection pump. I did it
and it is the standard solution today.
4.It is not possible to use an aluminum radiator because the corrosion will destroy the engine. I
did it and it is the standard solution today.
5.It is not possible to create an “emission free” natural gas burner. I did it. It is in mass
production at VIESSMANN. BUDERUS sued VIESSMANN about “emission free” and lost.
Dr. Peter Hofbauer, Chairman and CTO
Response when told it can’t be done “everyone told me….”
Ecomotors (50% increase in engine efficiency)
“It is not because things are difficult that we do not dare, it is because we do not
dare that they are difficult.”
“Try and fail, but don't fail to try.”
- Stephen Kaggwa
“Courage is doing what you're afraid to do. There can be no courage unless
- Eddie Rickenbacker
“Only those who dare fail greatly can achieve greatly.”
- Robert F. Kennedy
“You will face many defeats in your life, but never let yourself be defeated.”
- Maya Angelou
The willingness to fail gives us the
freedom to succeed
The Weather Forecast …
Rate of change will accelerate…
Adaptability, agility are key!
Innovation & entrepreneurship will thrive
Fun, fortunes & failure will be in abundance
to predict the