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  • ninakix  ninakix  by vkhosla Taking developers hostage  #SFriot 1 Nov   Favorite   Retweet   Reply darian314  Darian Shirazi  by vkhosla If SFPD has any trouble getting around the city, I hear Ubercab is available.  #sfscanner from SoMa, San Francisco 1 Nov   ninakix  ninakix  by vkhosla Painting solar panels black  #SFriot 1 Nov   dsrsleepy  Sleepy  by vkhosla If SFPD wised up, they'd read the  #sfriot  hash tag for "I'm about to light this here trash can on fire at ______" 1 Nov   rembry  Raymond Embry IV  by vkhosla Do I get a riot bage for checking into a riot?  #SFRiot 1 Nov   levie  Aaron Levie  by vkhosla If you run into any great developers at the  #SFRiot , please send them our way. 1 Nov   gaberivera  Gabe Rivera  by vkhosla "... 10-4 ... If we can't disperse them, let's gradually push them all into the Tenderloin"  #sfscanner   #sfriot 1 Nov   BetoIII  Beto Juarez III  by vkhosla RT @ ninakix : Setting fire to compost; using fair trade matches #SFriot 1 Nov   donnyo  Don Otvos  by vkhosla I'm carrying my groceries in *plastic bags*  #SFRiot from Forest Hill Extension, San Francisco 1 Nov   _Ame_Rican_Kid_  Blog by AmeRican Kid  by vkhosla Leaving the milk out overnight  #SFRiot 1 Nov   TravTurn  Travis Turney  by vkhosla The  #SFriot  is a GOP plot to jail all the pro  #Prop19  voters and boot Pelosi out of office! 1 Nov   _Ame_Rican_Kid_  Blog by AmeRican Kid  by vkhosla Sending twitpics of me eating meat to PETa  #SFRiot 1 Nov   cameo  Cameo Wood  by vkhosla  I'm in the middle of a riot, and I'm at my house!  #sfriot  (@ Riot w/ 2 others)  http://4sq.com/bGIUAl from Nob Hill, San Francisco 1 Nov   jody_beth  Jody  by vkhosla New word for when L.A.-hating Bay Area residents get a riot of their own: HYPHOCRISY  #enlightenment   #superiority   #sfriot 1 Nov   alexia  Alexia Tsotsis  by vkhosla Wow, all this fuss over a football game!  #SFRiot 1 Nov   dsrsleepy  Sleepy  by vkhosla Twitter is officialy more entertaining than anything on TV right now. #sfscanner   #sfriot 1 Nov   davidu  David Ulevitch  by vkhosla If Prop19 were already law then all these rioters would be at home waiting for Dominos to deliver some pizza. :-)  #sfriot   #Sfgiants 1 Nov   nicorn7  Nicholas Cornelius  by vkhosla cnn.com  has nothing about the  #SFRiot  Looks like twitter wins again?  #sfscanner 1 Nov   rcymozart  Robert Yocum  by vkhosla .@ socialscope  they just want a public beta.  #nothingtoseehere #sfriot 1 Nov   susanbeebe  Susan Beebe  by vkhosla Only in SF!! Haha!! :D >>> RT @ Stammy : some guy in the  #sfriot is holding a light saber...  http://bit.ly/9TxXmn 1 Nov   chris_stevenson  Chris Stevenson  by vkhosla  Looking for an iPad enabled live feed of  #SFRiot . The revolution must be being streamed somewhere ! from here 1 Nov   jproulx  Jesse Proulx  by vkhosla Letting my dog poop on the grass and not picking it up  #SFRiot 1 Nov   dailymobilenews  Daily Mobile News  by vkhosla Daily Mobile News: SF Giants win World Series, ensuing riots hit Foursquare, Twitter and Ustream  #SFRiot   http://bit.ly/aZvHDS #smartphone 1 Nov   vkhosla  Vinod Khosla  RT @ Mitzula  How hard is it to light Hybrids and Electric Cars on fire???  #SFRiot 1 Nov   vkhosla  Vinod Khosla  SF Riotous RT @ gaberivera  I just threw a recyclable into the regular, non-recyclable trash bin  #SFRiot 1 Nov   johnmaeda  johnmaeda  by vkhosla Why institutions matter (= they provide safe environments in which to fail). via Malcolm Gladwell.  http://risd.cc/chOAbO 1 Nov   vkhosla  Vinod Khosla @  @ chloenighthorse  I like it
  • http://www.usatoday.com/news/topstories/2010-10-30-3843176683_x.htm
  • http://www.businessweek.com/interactive_reports/innovative_companies_2010.html?chan=magazine+channel_special+report http://www.fastcompany.com/mic/2010

Transcript

  • 1. Vinod Khosla [email_address] Nov, 2010 Punditry vs. Innovation
  • 2. 2010 investments in mobile/web
  • 3. “ All progress depends on the unreasonable man” - George Bernard Shaw “ Human salvation lies in the hands of the creatively maladjusted” - Martin Luther King
  • 4. “ when the train of history hits a curve, the intellectuals fall off.” - Karl Marx
  • 5.
    • Experts & Pundits
  • 6. Mckinsey : US mobile subscribers Source: American Heritage Magazine - http://www.americanheritage.com/articles/magazine/it/2007/3/2007_3_8.shtml forecast actual 1986 forecast for 2000
  • 7. yesterday’s technology, tomorrow’s forecast 1980’s phone: year 2000 phone: 2010 phone: 300,000 available apps 7bn+ apps downloaded
  • 8. the folly of predictions: tetlock study hundreds of experts. 80,000+ “expert” forecasts & 20+ years results: experts about the same accuracy as dart-throwing monkeys Source: http://www.newyorker.com/archive/2005/12/05/051205crbo_books1
  • 9. "Cynics never do the impossible, achieve the improbable, take on the inadvisable. Hope is only path to extraordinary success." INSPIRATIONAL TWEET:
  • 10. TWEET?
    • 140 characters that millions of people follow
    • Can tell the mood of a nation
    • Creates an instantaneous backchannel
    • Formation of a personal brand
    • Promotes content
    Did not exist 5 years ago! Today: More than 100 million users 65 million tweets are posted each day
  • 11. SF Giants win World Series…
  • 12.
  • 13. Could McKinsey or an analyst have predicted Twitter? Predicted 140 chars as “culture assessment tool”?
  • 14. … the sources of innovation
    • Google, Facebook, Twitter : Fox, NBC, CBS
    Amazon : Walmart First Solar : Shell & BP Solar Cree : GE DNA Sequencing
  • 15. Big companies vs. innovators
    • Focus on Process
    • Existing markets
    • Focus on DCF, NPV, EPS
    • Careful not to fail
    • “ Push” into the market
    • Incrementalism
    • Focus on Vision
    • Invent new Markets/Paths
    • Ignore financial analysis
    • Constantly iterate
    • Create “Pull”
    • Disruption
  • 16. How to/not to
    • Financial tools: DCF, NPV, IRR
    Stage gate development or effectual reasoning? Top down market analysis or evolution? customer wish list or passion for a vision?
  • 17. Innovation according to the press Apple Google Microsoft IBM Toyota Amazon LG Electronics BYD GE Sony Samsung Intel Ford RIM VW HP Tata BMW Coca-Cola Nintendo 1-10 11-20 Facebook Amazon Apple Google Huawei First Solar PG&E Novartis Walmart HP   Hulu Netflix Nike Intel Spotify BYD Cisco Systems IBM GE Disney 1-10 11-20 Business Week Fast Company What has surprised you? Source: Businessweek, Fast Company
  • 18. winners take (almost) all =investment viability 5 years out, the group’s market cap has grown… Starting Industry Structure But leaders far exceed the also-rans
  • 19. New Computing Cycle Characteristics 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Devices / Users (MM in Log Scale) Computing Growth Drivers Over Time, 1960 – 2020E Note: PC installed base reached 100MM in 1993, cellphone / Internet users reached 1B in 2002 / 2005 respectively; Source: ITU, Mark Lipacis, Morgan Stanley Research. 1 10 100 1000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 Minicomputer 10+ PC 100+ Mainframe 1+ Mobile/Gadget Internet 10000? Desktop Internet 1000+
  • 20. The old don’t innovate – the new “create the future” Mainframes 1960s Personal Computing 1980s Desktop Internet Computing 1990s Mobile Internet Computing 2000s Mini Computing 1970s New Winners New Winners New Winners New Winners Note: Winners from 1950s to 1980s based on Fortune 500 rankings (revenue-based), desktop Internet winners based on wealth created from 1995 to respective peak market capitalizations. Source: Factset, Fortune, Morgan Stanley Research. Microsoft Cisco Intel Apple Oracle EMC Dell Compaq Google AOL eBay Yahoo! Amazon.com Digital Equipment Data General HP Prime Computervision Wang Labs IBM NCR Control Data Sperry Honeywell Burroughs New Winners Facebook Twitter Apple (exception?) ?? ??
  • 21. as surely as... 1985: NOT a PC in every home 1990: NO email for grandma 1995: NOT the internet 2000: NO pervasive mobile, seacrh 2005: NO social media / iphone 2008: NO Goldman/Morgan bankruptcy? 2010+: reason for optimism
  • 22. What’s next? discovery content curation eBooks/interactive content HTML 5… Landline phone Standalone radio Portable DVD Low-end Cameras/ camcorders MP3 players GPS Portable gaming Voice recorders Translator/ dictionary Iphone Ipad Android Existing static products… Difficult to predict the future, when innovation is the name of the game recommendations Reputation
  • 23. what will it be? Taste graphs curation vs. creation of online content privacy vs. personalization where will HTML 5 lead? discovery vs. recommendation curation of goods in the real world? who do you trust? Friends, experts, crowd? mvp with rapid iteration vs. better game play & production value?
  • 24. not yet done…
    • Payments
    Semantic Web Convey intent Analysis: Network, behavior,… sensors medicine privacy & authentication personalization Everything everywhere Anticipate needs (agents) Group-sourced innovation Discovery Reputation
  • 25. Innovators
  • 26. “ The fine line separating the delusional from the visionaries amongst us is often not foresight, but rather hindsight.” Ben Semel
  • 27.
    • It is not possible to convert a gasoline engine to a Diesel, using the same transfer line. I did it and it is the most successful Diesel in the world and it was copied by everybody.
    • The combustion for a high speed Diesel is not possible. I started production with a 5000 rpm Diesel with 2000 engines/day on the gasoline engine transfer line.
    • 3. You cannot use a rubber toothed belt to drive the camshaft and the injection pump. I did it and it is the standard solution today.
    • It is not possible to use an aluminum radiator because the corrosion will destroy the engine. I did it and it is the standard solution today.
    • It is not possible to create an “emission free” natural gas burner. I did it. It is in mass production at VIESSMANN. BUDERUS sued VIESSMANN about “emission free” and lost.
    • Dr. Peter Hofbauer, Chairman and CTO
    •  
    Attitude matters: Response when told it can’t be done “everyone told me….” Ecomotors (50% increase in engine efficiency)
  • 28. “ It is not because things are difficult that we do not dare, it is because we do not dare that they are difficult.” - Seneca “Try and fail, but don't fail to try.” - Stephen Kaggwa “Courage is doing what you're afraid to do. There can be no courage unless you're scared.” - Eddie Rickenbacker “Only those who dare fail greatly can achieve greatly.” - Robert F. Kennedy “You will face many defeats in your life, but never let yourself be defeated.” - Maya Angelou The willingness to fail gives us the freedom to succeed
  • 29. The Weather Forecast …
    • Rate of change will accelerate…
    Adaptability, agility are key! Innovation & entrepreneurship will thrive Fun, fortunes & failure will be in abundance
  • 30. to predict the future, invent it! -Alan Kay [email_address]