Innovation vs punditry


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  • ninakix ninakix  by vkhosla
    Taking developers hostage #SFriot
    1 Nov Favorite Retweet Reply
    darian314 Darian Shirazi  by vkhosla
    If SFPD has any trouble getting around the city, I hear Ubercab is available. #sfscanner
    from SoMa, San Francisco
    1 Nov 
    ninakix ninakix  by vkhosla
    Painting solar panels black #SFriot
    1 Nov 
    dsrsleepy Sleepy  by vkhosla
    If SFPD wised up, they'd read the #sfriot hash tag for "I'm about to light this here trash can on fire at ______"
    1 Nov 
    rembry Raymond Embry IV  by vkhosla
    Do I get a riot bage for checking into a riot? #SFRiot
    1 Nov 
    levie Aaron Levie  by vkhosla
    If you run into any great developers at the #SFRiot, please send them our way.
    1 Nov 
    gaberivera Gabe Rivera  by vkhosla
    "... 10-4 ... If we can't disperse them, let's gradually push them all into the Tenderloin" #sfscanner #sfriot
    1 Nov 
    BetoIII Beto Juarez III  by vkhosla
    RT @ninakix: Setting fire to compost; using fair trade matches#SFriot
    1 Nov 
    donnyo Don Otvos  by vkhosla
    I'm carrying my groceries in *plastic bags* #SFRiot
    from Forest Hill Extension, San Francisco
    1 Nov 
    _Ame_Rican_Kid_ Blog by AmeRican Kid  by vkhosla
    Leaving the milk out overnight #SFRiot
    1 Nov 
    TravTurn Travis Turney  by vkhosla
    The #SFriot is a GOP plot to jail all the pro #Prop19 voters and boot Pelosi out of office!
    1 Nov 
    _Ame_Rican_Kid_ Blog by AmeRican Kid  by vkhosla
    Sending twitpics of me eating meat to PETa #SFRiot
    1 Nov 
    cameo Cameo Wood  by vkhosla 
    I'm in the middle of a riot, and I'm at my house! #sfriot (@ Riot w/ 2 others)
    from Nob Hill, San Francisco
    1 Nov 
    jody_beth Jody  by vkhosla
    New word for when L.A.-hating Bay Area residents get a riot of their own: HYPHOCRISY #enlightenment #superiority #sfriot
    1 Nov 
    alexia Alexia Tsotsis  by vkhosla
    Wow, all this fuss over a football game! #SFRiot
    1 Nov 
    dsrsleepy Sleepy  by vkhosla
    Twitter is officialy more entertaining than anything on TV right now.#sfscanner #sfriot
    1 Nov 
    davidu David Ulevitch  by vkhosla
    If Prop19 were already law then all these rioters would be at home waiting for Dominos to deliver some pizza. :-) #sfriot #Sfgiants
    1 Nov 
    nicorn7 Nicholas Cornelius  by vkhosla has nothing about the #SFRiot Looks like twitter wins again? #sfscanner
    1 Nov 
    rcymozart Robert Yocum  by vkhosla
    .@socialscope they just want a public beta. #nothingtoseehere#sfriot
    1 Nov 
    susanbeebe Susan Beebe  by vkhosla
    Only in SF!! Haha!! :D >>> RT @Stammy: some guy in the #sfriotis holding a light saber...
    1 Nov 
    chris_stevenson Chris Stevenson  by vkhosla 
    Looking for an iPad enabled live feed of #SFRiot. The revolution must be being streamed somewhere !
    from here
    1 Nov 
    jproulx Jesse Proulx  by vkhosla
    Letting my dog poop on the grass and not picking it up #SFRiot
    1 Nov 
    dailymobilenews Daily Mobile News  by vkhosla
    Daily Mobile News: SF Giants win World Series, ensuing riots hit Foursquare, Twitter and Ustream #SFRiot
    1 Nov 
    vkhosla Vinod Khosla 
    RT @Mitzula How hard is it to light Hybrids and Electric Cars on fire??? #SFRiot
    1 Nov 
    vkhosla Vinod Khosla 
    SF Riotous RT @gaberivera I just threw a recyclable into the regular, non-recyclable trash bin #SFRiot
    1 Nov 
    johnmaeda johnmaeda  by vkhosla
    Why institutions matter (= they provide safe environments in which to fail). via Malcolm Gladwell.
    1 Nov 
    vkhosla Vinod Khosla @ 
    @chloenighthorse I like it
  • Innovation vs punditry

    1. 1. Vinod Khosla Nov, 2010 Punditry vs. Innovation
    2. 2. 2010 investments in mobile/web
    3. 3. “All progress depends on the unreasonable man” - George Bernard Shaw 3 “Human salvation lies in the hands of the creatively maladjusted” - Martin Luther King
    4. 4. “when the train of history hits a curve, the intellectuals fall off.” - Karl Marx 4
    5. 5. Experts & Pundits 5
    6. 6. Mckinsey : US mobile subscribers Source: American Heritage Magazine - forecast actual 1986 forecast for 2000 6
    7. 7. yesterday’s technology, tomorrow’s forecast 1980’s phone: year 2000 phone: 7 2010 phone: 300,000 available apps 7bn+ apps downloaded
    8. 8. the folly of predictions: tetlock study hundreds of experts. 80,000+ “expert” forecasts & 20+ years results: experts about the same accuracy as dart-throwing monkeys Source: 8
    9. 9. "Cynics never do the impossible, achieve the improbable, take on the inadvisable. Hope is only path to extraordinary success." INSPIRATIONAL TWEET: 9
    10. 10. TWEET? -140 characters that millions of people follow -Can tell the mood of a nation -Creates an instantaneous backchannel -Formation of a personal brand -Promotes content Did not exist 5 years ago! Today: More than 100 million users 65 million tweets are posted each day 10
    11. 11. 11 SF Giants win World Series…
    12. 12. 12
    13. 13. Could McKinsey or an analyst have predicted Twitter? Predicted 140 chars as “culture assessment tool”? 13
    14. 14. …the sources of innovation Google, Facebook, Twitter : Fox, NBC, CBS 14 Amazon : Walmart First Solar : Shell & BP Solar Cree : GE DNA Sequencing
    15. 15. Big companies vs. innovators Focus on Process Existing markets Focus on DCF, NPV, EPS Careful not to fail “Push” into the market Incrementalism Focus on Vision Invent new Markets/Paths Ignore financial analysis Constantly iterate Create “Pull” Disruption 15
    16. 16. How to/not to Financial tools: DCF, NPV, IRR Stage gate development or effectual reasoning? Top down market analysis or evolution? customer wish list or passion for a vision? 16
    17. 17. Innovation according to the press Apple Google Microsoft IBM Toyota Amazon LG Electronics BYD GE Sony 17 Samsung Intel Ford RIM VW HP Tata BMW Coca-Cola Nintendo 1-10 11-20 Facebook Amazon Apple Google Huawei First Solar PG&E Novartis Walmart HP Hulu Netflix Nike Intel Spotify BYD Cisco Systems IBM GE Disney 1-10 11-20 Business Week Fast Company What has surprised you? Source: Businessweek, Fast Company
    18. 18. 5 years out, the group’s market cap has grown… winners take (almost) all =investment viability Starting Industry Structure But leaders far exceed the also-rans 18
    19. 19. 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Devices/Users(MMinLogScale) 19 New Computing Cycle Characteristics Minicomputer 10+ Computing Growth Drivers Over Time, 1960 – 2020E Note: PC installed base reached 100MM in 1993, cellphone / Internet users reached 1B in 2002 / 2005 respectively; Source: ITU, Mark Lipacis, Morgan Stanley Research. 1 10 100 1000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 PC 100+ Mainframe 1+ Mobile/Gadget Internet 10000? Desktop Internet 1000+
    20. 20. 20 The old don’t innovate – the new “create the future” Mainframes 1960s Personal Computing 1980s Desktop Internet Computing 1990s Mobile Internet Computing 2000s Mini Computing 1970s New Winners New Winners New Winners New Winners Note: Winners from 1950s to 1980s based on Fortune 500 rankings (revenue-based), desktop Internet winners based on wealth created from 1995 to respective peak market capitalizations. Source: Factset, Fortune, Morgan Stanley Research. Microsoft Cisco Intel Apple Oracle EMC Dell Compaq Google AOL eBay Yahoo! Digital Equipment Data General HP Prime Computervision Wang Labs IBM NCR Control Data Sperry Honeywell Burroughs New Winners Facebook Twitter Apple (exception?) ?? ??
    21. 21. as surely as... 1985: NOT a PC in every home 1990: NO email for grandma 1995: NOT the internet 2000: NO pervasive mobile, seacrh 2005: NO social media / iphone 2008: NO Goldman/Morgan bankruptcy? 2010+: reason for optimism 21
    22. 22. 22 discovery content curation eBooks/interactive content HTML 5… What’s next? Landline phone Standalone radio Portable DVD Low-end Cameras/ camcorders MP3 players GPS Portable gaming Voice recorders Translator/ dictionary Iphone Ipad Android Existing static products… Difficult to predict the future, when innovation is the name of the game recommendations Reputation
    23. 23. what will it be? Taste graphs 23 curation vs. creation of online content privacy vs. personalization where will HTML 5 lead? discovery vs. recommendation curation of goods in the real world? who do you trust? Friends, experts, crowd? mvp with rapid iteration vs. better game play & production value?
    24. 24. not yet done… Payments Semantic Web Convey intent Analysis: Network, behavior,… 24 sensors medicine privacy & authentication personalization Everything everywhere Anticipate needs (agents) Group-sourced innovation Discovery Reputation
    25. 25. Innovators 25
    26. 26. “The fine line separating the delusional from the visionaries amongst us is often not foresight, but rather hindsight.” Ben Semel 26
    27. 27. 1.It is not possible to convert a gasoline engine to a Diesel, using the same transfer line. I did it and it is the most successful Diesel in the world and it was copied by everybody. 2.The combustion for a high speed Diesel is not possible. I started production with a 5000 rpm Diesel with 2000 engines/day on the gasoline engine transfer line. 3. You cannot use a rubber toothed belt to drive the camshaft and the injection pump. I did it and it is the standard solution today. 4.It is not possible to use an aluminum radiator because the corrosion will destroy the engine. I did it and it is the standard solution today. 5.It is not possible to create an “emission free” natural gas burner. I did it. It is in mass production at VIESSMANN. BUDERUS sued VIESSMANN about “emission free” and lost. Dr. Peter Hofbauer, Chairman and CTO Attitude matters: 27 Response when told it can’t be done “everyone told me….” Ecomotors (50% increase in engine efficiency)
    28. 28. “It is not because things are difficult that we do not dare, it is because we do not dare that they are difficult.” - Seneca “Try and fail, but don't fail to try.” - Stephen Kaggwa “Courage is doing what you're afraid to do. There can be no courage unless you're scared.” - Eddie Rickenbacker “Only those who dare fail greatly can achieve greatly.” - Robert F. Kennedy “You will face many defeats in your life, but never let yourself be defeated.” - Maya Angelou The willingness to fail gives us the freedom to succeed 28
    29. 29. The Weather Forecast … Rate of change will accelerate… Adaptability, agility are key! Innovation & entrepreneurship will thrive Fun, fortunes & failure will be in abundance 29
    30. 30. to predict the future, invent it! -Alan Kay