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Greek Sovereign Debt Crisis
 

Greek Sovereign Debt Crisis

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A description of the Greek financial crisis (pre cursor to the current Euro Zone Crisis)

A description of the Greek financial crisis (pre cursor to the current Euro Zone Crisis)

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    Greek Sovereign Debt Crisis Greek Sovereign Debt Crisis Presentation Transcript

    • Greek Sovereign Debt Crisis Aditya Lathe
    • The European UnionGreek Crisis TimelineCausative FactorsOptions
    • European Union- History• Founded as European Economic Community in 1957 by 6 countries- Belgium, France, (West) Germany, Italy, Luxembourg and Netherlands (in response to greater integration after WWII).• In 1992, under the “Treaty on European Union” signed at Maastricht, the name „European Union‟ officially replaces „European Community‟.• As of 2011, 27 countries in Europe are part of the European Union.
    • EU – Member States
    • Eurozone• Euro introduced as a common currency in 11 EU countries in January 1999.• Physical notes and coins introduced in January 2002, replacing all national currencies.• As of 2011, 17 nations within the EU, use the Euro as a common currency. The nations, implying a monetary union, are together denoted as Eurozone.
    • Eurozone GDP (Nominal) (Source: ECB) GDP (2010) S.No. Country GDP (2010) % 1 Austria 286.2 3.12% Portugal 2 Belgium 354.4 3.87% 2% Belgium 3 Cyprus 17.3 0.19%Netherland Austria 4% Finland 6% 3% 2% 4 Estonia 14.3 0.16% Spain 5 Finland 180.3 1.97% 12% 6 France 1932.8 21.09% France 7 Germany 2476.8 27.02% 21% 8 Greece 227.3 2.48% Italy 17% 9 Ireland 156 1.70% 10 Italy 1548.8 16.90% Germany 27% 11 Luxembourg 40.3 0.44% 12 Malta 6.2 0.07% Ireland 13 Netherlands 588.4 6.42% 2% 14 Portugal 172.8 1.89% Greece 15 Slovakia 65.9 0.72% 2% 16 Slovenia 35.4 0.39% 17 Spain 1062.6 11.59% Total €9165.8bn
    • The European UnionGreek Crisis TimelineCausative FactorsOptions
    • Crisis Timeline Jan 2001: Greece joins the Eurozone, becoming the 12th member to adopt the Euro Nov 2004: Admits to fudging figures to gain entry to the Euro. Says deficit was not below 3% of GDP, as required by EU rules. Has been consistently above 3% since 1999. Mar 2005: Adopts austerity measures to reduce deficit and improve finances post the hosting of Olympics. Posts short recovery upto 2006, when GDP grows by 4.1% in 3 months.
    • Crisis Timeline Oct 2009: Recovery short-lived after Global Financial Crisis. Debt fears mount. Economy contracts by 0.3%, national debt up by 56% in 5 years (€242bn), deficit expected to be 6% of GDP. (Later revised to 12.7% of GDP). Dec 2009: Fitch downgrades rating from A- to BBB+, a first in 10 years. Govt. proposes radical reforms, including crackdown on corruption and reining in public spending. Workers begin strikes. Feb 2010: Deficit at 12.7%, debt at €300bn. 1st Austerity measure announced, includes freeze on public sector pay & higher taxes. Strikes intensify. Goldman Sachs under Fed enquiry for helping Greece “borrow” billions through Exchange Rate Swaps.
    • Crisis Timeline Apr 2010: 16 Eurozone members announce bailout package. €30bn 3 year loan at 5% interest, to be provided over next 1 year through the ECB. IMF to provide €15bn. S&P downgrades rating to BB+ (Junk status), as loan amount not seen as enough. 2nd Austerity measures announced, include salary cuts, increase in taxes. May 2010: Size of bailout package increased to avert sovereign default. €110bn 3 year loan at 5% interest to be provided, with Eurozone members share at €80bn and IMF share at €30bn. Deficit at 13.6%. Govt. submits a 3year plan aimed at cutting budget deficit from 13.6% of GDP in 2009 to below 3% of GDP in 2014. May 2010: With default fears from Portugal and Ireland, EFSF worth €750bn launched. €440bn loan backed guarantee and bilateral loans by Eurozone members, €60bn balance of payment support by EU members and upto €250bn by IMF support to be made available to weak economies.
    • Crisis Timeline Jul 11: 2nd Eurozone Bailout package announced. €109bn to be provided through EFSF, at lower interest rates (~3.5%) & with longer timeframe (15-30 yrs). Private sector contribution at €37bn. Present: Country barely being sustained on drip-feed from the Troika “European Union, European Central Bank & International Monetary Fund”. Fate of the nation still uncertain.
    • The European UnionGreek Crisis TimelineCausative FactorsOptions
    • Causative Factors Structural rigiditiesReliance High on fiscalexternal deficit debt
    • Structural Rigidities Large & Inefficient Public Administration Costly pension & Healthcare systems Tax Evasion & absence of the will to maintain financial discipline
    • Structural Rigidities• According to OECD, spending on public administration as a percentage of total public expenditure in Greece was higher than in any other OECD member, “with no evidence that the quantity or quality of the services are superior”.• Public sector plagued by overstaffing and poor productivity.• An aging Greek population—the percentage of Greeks aged over 64 is expected to rise from 19% in 2007 to 32% in 2060—could place additional burdens on public spending and what is widely considered one of Europe’s most generous pension systems.• Informal economy in Greece valued at between 25%-30% of GDP.• Observers offer a variety of explanations for the prevalence of tax evasion in Greece, including high levels of taxation and a complex tax code, excessive regulation, and inefficiency in the public sector.
    • High Fiscal Deficit High Govt. Spending on public administration High Govt. Spending on pension and healthcare Low Revenue collections
    • High Fiscal Deficit• Greek government expenditures in 2009 accounted for 50% of GDP, with 75% of (non-interest) public spending going to wages and social benefits.• Total Greek public pension payments expected to increase from 11.5% of GDP in 2005 to 24% of GDP in 2050.• Between 2001-2007, while central government expenditures increased by 87%, revenues grew by only 31%.
    • High Fiscal Deficit
    • Large External Debt Adoption of Euro Lax EU Rules enforcement
    • External Debt• With the currency bloc anchored by economic heavyweights (Germany and France), and a common monetary policy conservatively managed by the ECB, perceived stability due to Eurozone membership allowed access to capital at artificially low interest rates• Lax EU Rules enforcement: No financial penalty for Budget deficit >3% and debt >60% of GDP• Got away with hiding billions of dollars of debt through currency exchange rate swaps
    • Central Govt. Debt- Dec 2010
    • Central Govt. Debt – June 2011
    • Central Govt. Debt – Maturity Profile
    • Debt (% of GDP) - Trend
    • Debt (% of GDP) - Comparative
    • Country Exposure
    • Comparative 10 yr Bond yields German Bonds Greek Bonds
    • The European UnionGreek Crisis TimelineCausative FactorsOptions
    • Options Outright Default Bailout through EU support & austerity measures Orderly Default Exit from Eurozone
    • Option I: Outright Default• German and French financial institutions are thought to hold up to 35-40% of Greek debt and would be severely hit.• The credibility of the ECB would suffer, and that could hurt international investment in the eurozone.• A default could bankrupt Greek banks, which together are reckoned to hold about a quarter of the Greek sovereign debt.• The fear is of contagion - the weaker eurozone countries would find it more expensive to borrow in commercial markets. The Irish Republic and Portugal might need a further EU-IMF bail-out.
    • Option II- EU Support & AusterityMeasures• Greece to survive on drip-support from Eurozone . Meanwhile, to shore up finances by continuing with austerity measures.• Austerity Measures:• Taxes increased by €2.32bn, with additional taxes of € 3.38bn in 2012.• Public sector wage bill to be cut steadily to shrink it by more than €2bn by 2015. Measures include public sector wage cut of 15%, cap on wages and bonuses.• Defence spending to be cut by €200mn in 2012, and by €333mn each year from 2013 to 2015.• Health spending to be cut by €310mn in 2011 and a further €1.81bn in 2012-2015.• Social security to be cut by €1.09bn in 2011, €1.28bn in 2012 and €1.03bn in 2013.• €50bn euros to be raised from privatisations by 2015.
    • Option III- Orderly default• Holders of Greek government bonds would have to accept less than they were worth, "take a haircut".• According to analysts, the size of that haircut could be anything between 20% and 50%.• If the settlement were negotiated in an orderly fashion, it could form part of an acceptable solution - although it would make investors reluctant to buy more Greek bonds in the future.• Another problem for Greece is that the ratings agencies would probably treat a debt restructuring as a default anyway.• It would also raise interest rates for bonds issued by other troubled eurozone "periphery" economies - especially the Irish Republic and Portugal - and depress the value of the euro.
    • Option IV: Exit from Eurozone• Being in the eurozone, Greece is unable to restore its economic competitiveness by devaluing its currency.• Greece could exit the Euro and return to the drachma at a new exchange rate: one euro would equal one drachma.• Such a measure would boost exports, tourism. However, would negatively impact imports.• However, it would increase the size of Greeces debt mountain and Greece will experience hyperinflation. It may cause a run on the banks.• Speculation will be fueled regarding other similar orderly exits of other countries (Ireland, Portugal and others).• There is no legal procedure for leaving the eurozone and some economists said treaty changes would have to take place before an exit could happen.
    • Thank You
    • Coming soon to a country nearyou:• Irish Debt Crisis• Portuguese Debt Crisis• Italian Debt Crisis?• Spanish Debt Crisis?