1.
Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport
Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli
Applied Mathematics
SINTEF ICT
adil.rasheed@sintef.no
June 29, 2010
Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics
Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
2.
Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport
Outline
1 Motivation
2 Methodology
Theory
3 Real application: Forecasting
Nesting
Validation
4 Special Analysis: Alta Airport
Haugesund Airport
Kristiansund Airport
Alta Airport
Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics
Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
3.
Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport
Incidents and accidents
On 11 March 1982, Widerøe Flight 933, operated by the Twin Otter LN-BNK
˚
crashed into the Barents Sea near Gamvik, on route from Berlevag Airport to
Mehamn Airport. All investigations have concluded that the crash resulted from
structural failure of the aircraft’s tail caused by severe clear-air turbulence.
On 12 April 1990, Widerøe Flight 839, operated by a Twin Otter, crashed into the
seas one minute after take-off from Værøy Airport, killing all ﬁve on board. The
cause of the crash had been strong and unpredictable wind gusts during take-off,
which had exceeded the plane’s limits and created a break-up in the plane’s tail
rudder, so the plane became uncontrollable.
Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics
Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
4.
Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport
Hammerfest Airport: 1 May 2005
On 1 May 2005, the Widerøe Dash-8-100 airplane LN-WIK was buffeted by strong
winds upon landing, and the landing gear on the right wing collapsed. While several
passengers sustained injuries, there were no fatalities in the incident, but the
Norwegian Civil Aviation Authority imposed the strictest wind regulations in Norway
upon the airport.
Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics
Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
5.
Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport
Amsterdam, Geneva, Paris, Frankfurt
Flat terrain
Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics
Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
6.
Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport
Norwegian airports
Characterized by fjords, hills, mountains, valleys resulting in rotors, mountain waves
etc. ...
Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics
Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
7.
Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport
Theory
Governing Equations
· (ρs u) = 0 (1)
Du pd θd 1
=− +g + ·R+f (2)
Dt ρs θs ρs
Dθ
= · (γT θ) + q (3)
Dt
DK
= · (νT K ) + Pk + Gθ − (4)
Dt
D νT 2
= · + (C1 Pk + C3 Gθ ) − C2 (5)
Dt σe k k
SIMRA: Semi IMplicit Reynolds Averaged
Structured version for forecasting
Unstructured version for special analysis
Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics
Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
8.
Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport
Theory
Boundary Conditions (for special analysis)
4000
3000
u∗ z z
z(m)
2000
u0 (z) = ln +W (6)
κ z0 D
−1/2 2 z 1000
K (z) = Cµ u∗ 1− (7)
D
0
270 275 280 285 290
potential temperature (K)
Potential temperature proﬁle for Stable
Stratiﬁcation
For forecasting: Nesting with Bigger scale model (UM1)
Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics
Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
9.
Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport
Theory
Terrain induced shear
du
dx
du
dz
1
L= C ρ (|U
2 L inf
− Vp |)2
Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics
Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
10.
Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport
Theory
Effect of horizontal and vertical shear
Horizontal shear Vertical shear
Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics
Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
11.
Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport
Theory
Safety Analysis
f
c ∂u w c w f
F =− + =− [u(x + f /2 − u(x − f /2)t] + (8)
g ∂x c g f c
1/2 1/3
1/3 (Cµ K )3/2 −1/3
≈ ≈ 0.67K 1/2 t (9)
t
c is the ﬂy path, g gravitational acceleration u is the wind component along the ﬂy path,
w vertical wind component, turbulent dissipation, K turbulent kinetic energy t
turbulent length scale f minimum response distance for landing conﬁguration and is of
the order of ∼ 500 m, Prevalence of the two conditions F < −0.1 and
1/3 > 0.5 m2/3 s −1 correnspond to severe turbulence for commercial aircrafts and
√
represent potential danger. These conditions are easily met when K > 3 ms−1 .
Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics
Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
12.
Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport
Nesting
Nesting: HIRLAM12− > HIRLAM8− > UM4− > UM1− > SIMRA
Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics
Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
13.
Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport
Validation
Brønnøysund
Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics
Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
14.
Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport
Validation
Evenes
Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics
Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
15.
Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport
Validation
Fordes
Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics
Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
16.
Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport
Validation
Hammerfast
Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics
Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
17.
Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport
Validation
˚
Honnigsvag
Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics
Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
18.
Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport
Validation
Mosjøen
Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics
Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
19.
Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport
Validation
Ørsta-Volda
Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics
Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
20.
Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport
Validation
Narvik
Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics
Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
21.
Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport
Validation
Sandane
Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics
Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
22.
Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport
Validation
Værnes
Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics
Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
23.
Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport
Validation
Right tool for the right job
So ... Downscaling does not always work. Use an appropriate model to resolve
interesting scales
Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics
Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
24.
Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport
Haugesund Airport
Haugesund Airport
Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics
Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
25.
Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport
Haugesund Airport
Special Analysis: Haugesund airport
Located on the west side of the island
and municipality of Karmøy, southwest
of Haugesund.
Operated by Avinor since 1975
Scandinavian Airlines, Norwegian Air
Shuttle.
Runway dimension: 2120 m × 45 m.
Elevation of 86 m above mean sea
level
The airport had 514, 947 passengers
in 2007
Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics
Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
26.
Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport
Haugesund Airport
Haugesund: Windrose
Spring Autumn
Summer Winter
The airport is not bothered by intense turbulence. Uneven side wind from the SSW and
sometimes from the north, with strength 13m/s or more, can provide turbulent
conditions on the ﬁnal
Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics
Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
27.
Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport
Haugesund Airport
Haugesund: Terrain and Mesh
Terrain in the vicinity of the Haugesund 300 × 300 times 40 mesh
airport
Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics
Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
28.
Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport
Haugesund Airport
√
K = 3 contours for free stream velocity of 30 m/s
No potential
danger.
α = 60o α = 90o Turbulent zones
are located far
away from the
airport.
α = 120o α = 150o
Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics
Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
29.
Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport
Haugesund Airport
√
K contour along the ﬂy path
α = 60o α = 90o
α = 120o α = 150o
Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics
Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
30.
Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport
Haugesund Airport
√
Haugesund: K contours and velocity ﬁeld projected on the cone
containing the gliding path for a free stream velocity of 20 m/s
α = 60o α = 120o
α = 90o
Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli
α = 150o SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics
Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
31.
Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport
Kristiansund Airport
Kristiansand Airport
Braathens SAFE Boeing after landing accident 1977-10-31
Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics
Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
32.
Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport
Kristiansund Airport
Sample Application: Kristiansand Airport (Kjevik)
Situated 4.3 NM (8.0 km) north-east of
the city Kristiansand, Vest-Agder in
southern Norway
The airport serves the Agder district
with domestic and international ﬂights.
The airport is operated by Avinor.
Surrounded by water on three sides
and hills on the fourth
Vigorous turbulence is experienced for
Northwesterly wind
Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics
Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
33.
Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport
Kristiansund Airport
Kjevik: Mesh and Terrain
β
β is the gliding angle
300 × 300 × 40 mesh
Resolution: 50 − 200 m
Domain size:30 km × 30 km × 3 km
Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics
Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
34.
Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport
Kristiansund Airport
Turbulent Kinetic Energy along the surface of the cone
Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics
Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
35.
Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport
Kristiansund Airport
3-D Velocity Field for α = 240o
Flow channelizes through the valleys
Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics
Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
36.
Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport
Kristiansund Airport
3-D Velocity Field for α = 320o
Flow ascends up the mountain
Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics
Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
37.
Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport
Kristiansund Airport
√
3-D K contours for α = 320o
Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics
Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
38.
Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport
Kristiansund Airport
√
3-D K contours for α = 320o
These plots are for free stream velocity of 20 m/s
√
K scales with this velocity
Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics
Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
39.
Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport
Alta Airport
Alta
Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics
Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
40.
Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport
Alta Airport
Special Analysis: Alta airport
Situated 4km northeast of the town
center of Alta on a plain where Alta
River ﬂows in the fjord
2, 088 m long runway
Operated by Avinor.
334, 132 passengers served in 2009
(busiest in Finnmark)
Provision for wind and turbulence
measurement on Komsa hill (200m)
SAS, Norwegian
Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics
Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
41.
Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport
Alta Airport
Alta: Terrain
For 20 − 25m/s wind speed strong turbulence is experienced. Wind from SSW to NW
is most problematic.
Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics
Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
42.
Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport
Alta Airport
Alta: Windrose
Spring Autumn
Winter
Summer
Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics
Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
43.
Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport
Alta Airport
Alta: Terrain and Mesh
Terrain in the vicinity of Alta airport and
gliding plane
300 × 300 times 40 mesh
Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics
Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
44.
Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport
Alta Airport
Turbulent Kinetic Energy along the surface of the cone
Severe
α = 60o α = 90o turbulence for
α = 60o and
α = 90o
α = 120o
Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli α = 300o SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics
Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
45.
Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport
Alta Airport
Turbulent Kinetic Energy along the ﬂy path
Severe
α = 60o α = 90o turbulence for
α = 60o and
α = 90o
α = 120o α = 300o
Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics
Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
46.
Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport
Alta Airport
√
Alta: K = 3 contours for free stream wind speed of 30m/s
α = 60o α = 120o
α = 90o α = 300o
Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics
Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
47.
Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport
Alta Airport
Alta: Effects of Stratiﬁcation
Ua = 10m/s, Fr = 1.0 Ua = 18m/s, Fr = 1.8
Ua = 15m/s, Fr = 1.5 Ua = 20m/s, Fr = 2.0
Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics
Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
48.
Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport
Alta Airport
Alta: Effects of Stratiﬁcation and Komsa hill
Ua = 10m/s, Fr = 1.0 Ua = 15m/s, Fr = 1.5
Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics
Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
49.
Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport
Alta Airport
Thank you
Do not be afraid: WECOME to Norway :)
Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics
Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
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