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Terrain-Induce Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety

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  • 1. Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli Applied Mathematics SINTEF ICT adil.rasheed@sintef.no June 29, 2010 Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
  • 2. Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport Outline 1 Motivation 2 Methodology Theory 3 Real application: Forecasting Nesting Validation 4 Special Analysis: Alta Airport Haugesund Airport Kristiansund Airport Alta Airport Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
  • 3. Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport Incidents and accidents On 11 March 1982, Widerøe Flight 933, operated by the Twin Otter LN-BNK ˚ crashed into the Barents Sea near Gamvik, on route from Berlevag Airport to Mehamn Airport. All investigations have concluded that the crash resulted from structural failure of the aircraft’s tail caused by severe clear-air turbulence. On 12 April 1990, Widerøe Flight 839, operated by a Twin Otter, crashed into the seas one minute after take-off from Værøy Airport, killing all five on board. The cause of the crash had been strong and unpredictable wind gusts during take-off, which had exceeded the plane’s limits and created a break-up in the plane’s tail rudder, so the plane became uncontrollable. Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
  • 4. Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport Hammerfest Airport: 1 May 2005 On 1 May 2005, the Widerøe Dash-8-100 airplane LN-WIK was buffeted by strong winds upon landing, and the landing gear on the right wing collapsed. While several passengers sustained injuries, there were no fatalities in the incident, but the Norwegian Civil Aviation Authority imposed the strictest wind regulations in Norway upon the airport. Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
  • 5. Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport Amsterdam, Geneva, Paris, Frankfurt Flat terrain Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
  • 6. Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport Norwegian airports Characterized by fjords, hills, mountains, valleys resulting in rotors, mountain waves etc. ... Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
  • 7. Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport Theory Governing Equations · (ρs u) = 0 (1) Du pd θd 1 =− +g + ·R+f (2) Dt ρs θs ρs Dθ = · (γT θ) + q (3) Dt DK = · (νT K ) + Pk + Gθ − (4) Dt D νT 2 = · + (C1 Pk + C3 Gθ ) − C2 (5) Dt σe k k SIMRA: Semi IMplicit Reynolds Averaged Structured version for forecasting Unstructured version for special analysis Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
  • 8. Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport Theory Boundary Conditions (for special analysis) 4000 3000 u∗ z z z(m) 2000 u0 (z) = ln +W (6) κ z0 D −1/2 2 z 1000 K (z) = Cµ u∗ 1− (7) D 0 270 275 280 285 290 potential temperature (K) Potential temperature profile for Stable Stratification For forecasting: Nesting with Bigger scale model (UM1) Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
  • 9. Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport Theory Terrain induced shear du dx du dz 1 L= C ρ (|U 2 L inf − Vp |)2 Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
  • 10. Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport Theory Effect of horizontal and vertical shear Horizontal shear Vertical shear Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
  • 11. Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport Theory Safety Analysis f c ∂u w c w f F =− + =− [u(x + f /2 − u(x − f /2)t] + (8) g ∂x c g f c 1/2 1/3 1/3 (Cµ K )3/2 −1/3 ≈ ≈ 0.67K 1/2 t (9) t c is the fly path, g gravitational acceleration u is the wind component along the fly path, w vertical wind component, turbulent dissipation, K turbulent kinetic energy t turbulent length scale f minimum response distance for landing configuration and is of the order of ∼ 500 m, Prevalence of the two conditions F < −0.1 and 1/3 > 0.5 m2/3 s −1 correnspond to severe turbulence for commercial aircrafts and √ represent potential danger. These conditions are easily met when K > 3 ms−1 . Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
  • 12. Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport Nesting Nesting: HIRLAM12− > HIRLAM8− > UM4− > UM1− > SIMRA Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
  • 13. Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport Validation Brønnøysund Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
  • 14. Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport Validation Evenes Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
  • 15. Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport Validation Fordes Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
  • 16. Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport Validation Hammerfast Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
  • 17. Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport Validation ˚ Honnigsvag Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
  • 18. Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport Validation Mosjøen Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
  • 19. Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport Validation Ørsta-Volda Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
  • 20. Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport Validation Narvik Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
  • 21. Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport Validation Sandane Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
  • 22. Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport Validation Værnes Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
  • 23. Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport Validation Right tool for the right job So ... Downscaling does not always work. Use an appropriate model to resolve interesting scales Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
  • 24. Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport Haugesund Airport Haugesund Airport Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
  • 25. Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport Haugesund Airport Special Analysis: Haugesund airport Located on the west side of the island and municipality of Karmøy, southwest of Haugesund. Operated by Avinor since 1975 Scandinavian Airlines, Norwegian Air Shuttle. Runway dimension: 2120 m × 45 m. Elevation of 86 m above mean sea level The airport had 514, 947 passengers in 2007 Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
  • 26. Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport Haugesund Airport Haugesund: Windrose Spring Autumn Summer Winter The airport is not bothered by intense turbulence. Uneven side wind from the SSW and sometimes from the north, with strength 13m/s or more, can provide turbulent conditions on the final Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
  • 27. Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport Haugesund Airport Haugesund: Terrain and Mesh Terrain in the vicinity of the Haugesund 300 × 300 times 40 mesh airport Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
  • 28. Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport Haugesund Airport √ K = 3 contours for free stream velocity of 30 m/s No potential danger. α = 60o α = 90o Turbulent zones are located far away from the airport. α = 120o α = 150o Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
  • 29. Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport Haugesund Airport √ K contour along the fly path α = 60o α = 90o α = 120o α = 150o Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
  • 30. Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport Haugesund Airport √ Haugesund: K contours and velocity field projected on the cone containing the gliding path for a free stream velocity of 20 m/s α = 60o α = 120o α = 90o Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli α = 150o SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
  • 31. Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport Kristiansund Airport Kristiansand Airport Braathens SAFE Boeing after landing accident 1977-10-31 Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
  • 32. Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport Kristiansund Airport Sample Application: Kristiansand Airport (Kjevik) Situated 4.3 NM (8.0 km) north-east of the city Kristiansand, Vest-Agder in southern Norway The airport serves the Agder district with domestic and international flights. The airport is operated by Avinor. Surrounded by water on three sides and hills on the fourth Vigorous turbulence is experienced for Northwesterly wind Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
  • 33. Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport Kristiansund Airport Kjevik: Mesh and Terrain β β is the gliding angle 300 × 300 × 40 mesh Resolution: 50 − 200 m Domain size:30 km × 30 km × 3 km Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
  • 34. Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport Kristiansund Airport Turbulent Kinetic Energy along the surface of the cone Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
  • 35. Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport Kristiansund Airport 3-D Velocity Field for α = 240o Flow channelizes through the valleys Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
  • 36. Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport Kristiansund Airport 3-D Velocity Field for α = 320o Flow ascends up the mountain Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
  • 37. Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport Kristiansund Airport √ 3-D K contours for α = 320o Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
  • 38. Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport Kristiansund Airport √ 3-D K contours for α = 320o These plots are for free stream velocity of 20 m/s √ K scales with this velocity Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
  • 39. Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport Alta Airport Alta Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
  • 40. Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport Alta Airport Special Analysis: Alta airport Situated 4km northeast of the town center of Alta on a plain where Alta River flows in the fjord 2, 088 m long runway Operated by Avinor. 334, 132 passengers served in 2009 (busiest in Finnmark) Provision for wind and turbulence measurement on Komsa hill (200m) SAS, Norwegian Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
  • 41. Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport Alta Airport Alta: Terrain For 20 − 25m/s wind speed strong turbulence is experienced. Wind from SSW to NW is most problematic. Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
  • 42. Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport Alta Airport Alta: Windrose Spring Autumn Winter Summer Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
  • 43. Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport Alta Airport Alta: Terrain and Mesh Terrain in the vicinity of Alta airport and gliding plane 300 × 300 times 40 mesh Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
  • 44. Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport Alta Airport Turbulent Kinetic Energy along the surface of the cone Severe α = 60o α = 90o turbulence for α = 60o and α = 90o α = 120o Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli α = 300o SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
  • 45. Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport Alta Airport Turbulent Kinetic Energy along the fly path Severe α = 60o α = 90o turbulence for α = 60o and α = 90o α = 120o α = 300o Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
  • 46. Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport Alta Airport √ Alta: K = 3 contours for free stream wind speed of 30m/s α = 60o α = 120o α = 90o α = 300o Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
  • 47. Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport Alta Airport Alta: Effects of Stratification Ua = 10m/s, Fr = 1.0 Ua = 18m/s, Fr = 1.8 Ua = 15m/s, Fr = 1.5 Ua = 20m/s, Fr = 2.0 Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
  • 48. Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport Alta Airport Alta: Effects of Stratification and Komsa hill Ua = 10m/s, Fr = 1.0 Ua = 15m/s, Fr = 1.5 Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety
  • 49. Motivation Methodology Real application: Forecasting Special Analysis: Alta Airport Alta Airport Thank you Do not be afraid: WECOME to Norway :) Adil RASHEED, Karstein SØrli SINTEF ICT Applied Mathematics Terrain Induced Turbulence Prediction for Aviation Safety