LIC Preneed Forum Presentation: Nov 8, 2012
 

LIC Preneed Forum Presentation: Nov 8, 2012

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Our economic outlook, as well as an important list of key questions to ask now about your insurer's investment portfolio (last slide).

Our economic outlook, as well as an important list of key questions to ask now about your insurer's investment portfolio (last slide).

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LIC Preneed Forum Presentation: Nov 8, 2012 LIC Preneed Forum Presentation: Nov 8, 2012 Presentation Transcript

  • INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT: ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Alton Cogert, CFA, CPA, CAIA, CGMA President and CEO Strategic Asset Alliance November 8th, 2012 www.saai.com www.insurercio.com
  • WHERE ARE WE NOW?SUMMARY MARKET COMMENTARY FOR Q3-2012 1
  • SAA Commentary – 3rd Quarter 2012 MARKETS  Central bankers took center stage in the U.S. and Europe as both announced additional quantitative easing measures to support the global economic recovery amid lower economic growth forecasts.  Given the additional monetary stimulus measures by both the ECB and Fed, riskier assets outperformed core fixed income as investors sought out higher yielding alternatives in a low rate environment that looks to remain stable in the intermediate term.  U.S. unemployment remains a significant issue as current job growth still fails to attain a level that will fully replace the 4.3 million net jobs lost during the Great Recession. While this glut in the labor market keeps wage growth/inflation under wraps, it also places a strain upon consumer spending growth. LOOKING AHEAD  For U.S. core fixed income investors, financial repression will continue on the heels of QE3 and the flight to quality away from Europe. The raw earnings power of core fixed income portfolios will continue to deteriorate into 2013 and 2014 as reinvestment rates remain extremely low.  If organizations can come to terms with the increased risk and potential financial statement volatility, making a case to explore and invest in higher yielding asset classes will be compelling.  The overhang of the Eurozone debt crisis will continue to intensify as recession continues.  Crisis resolution will be arduous as various cultural and structural issues must be deftly handled to truly achieve any “grand bargain” for the Eurozone.  In some ways, it makes little difference who wins the oval office in November as the structural issues of America’s deficit must be dealt with in some fashion. Regarding the most austere version 2 of the fiscal cliff ($600B or potential 4% hit to GDP), the general consensus is that some deal will View slide
  • U.S. TREASURIES AT 9/30/2012 LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM Q2-2012• UST yields fell slightly across shorter maturities (where the bulk of UST issuance is occurring), but overall UST yields remained largely unchanged from 6/30/2012.• While longer-term inflationary pressures build, UST yields remain low reflecting both the global flight to quality away from Europe and continuing Fed stimulus actions. 3 Source: Bloomberg View slide
  • FIXED INCOME MARKET YIELDS DURING Q3-2012 Yield-To-Worst (YTW) at 9/30/2012 • Barclay’s Aggregate (White): 1.61% YTW • Barclay’s Treasury (Red): 0.82% YTW • Barclay’s U.S. Credit (Blue): 2.64% YTW • Barclay’s High Yield (Green): 6.51% YTW• Using the fixed income market yields as of 6/30/2012 (Base = 100), the graphic above illustrates the relative change in interest rates for Q3- 2012.• Treasury yields were the most volatile but remained very low in absolute terms. Yields across spread sectors tightened as investors sought out higher yielding assets. Source: Bloomberg 4
  • Fixed Income Sector Returns / Duration: QTD Through September 30, 2012 • All broad, spread sectors strongly outperformed Treasuries during Q3-2012 5
  • INVESTORS REGROUP AND RETURN TO RISK ASSETS DURING Q3-2012 • S&P 500 (White): +6.35% • EAFE (Red): +6.34% • EM (Violet): +7.42% • All World (Green): +6.42%• Using the equity index values as of 6/30/2012 (Base = 100), the graphic above illustrates the relative performance across the world equity markets for Q3-2012.• Two key themes spurred the rapid return of risk taking across the world equity markets during Q3-2012: • The ECB announced an unlimited government bond-buying program boosted confidence; however, structural impediments continue to cast dark shadows over any real and/or perceived progress in resolving the Eurozone debt crises. • The Fed announced a third round of quantitative easing with additional MBS purchases and extended Operation Twist through 2012. 6 Source: Bloomberg
  • CAPITAL MARKETS‟ PERFORMANCE DETAIL 7
  • Fixed Income Performance – Trailing Returns • For Q3-2012, yields fell across non-Treasury sectors as spreads tightened on the heels of continued Central Bank stimuli in both the U.S. and Europe.Source: Zephyr StyleAdvisor 8
  • Fixed Income Market Yields: As of September 30th, 2012 Yield-to-Worst Total Return US Treasuries # of Issues Mkt. Value (bn$) Chg Qtr 9/30/2012 6/30/2012 3/31/2012 12/31/2011 9/30/2011 Q3-20122-Year -0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2%5-Year -0.1% 0.6% 0.7% 1.1% 0.8% 1.0% 0.8% 222 6,06810-Year 0.0% 1.6% 1.7% 2.2% 1.9% 1.9% 0.9%30-Year 0.1% 2.8% 2.8% 3.4% 2.9% 2.9% -0.3% Yield-to-Worst Total Return Sector # of Issues Mkt. Value (bn$) Chg Qtr 9/30/2012 6/30/2012 3/31/2012 12/31/2011 9/30/2011 Q3-2012Broad Market 7,999 $16,815 -0.4% 1.6% 2.0% 2.2% 2.2% 2.4% 1.6%MBS 838 5,052 -0.7% 1.8% 2.4% 2.7% 2.7% 2.8% 1.1%CMBS 964 316 -0.9% 2.0% 2.9% 2.9% 3.7% 4.2% 3.8%ABS 180 53 -0.3% 0.9% 1.2% 1.3% 1.6% 1.4% 1.2%Corporates 4,313 3,551 -0.5% 2.8% 3.3% 3.4% 3.7% 3.8% 3.8%Municipals 46,210 1,339 -0.3% 2.2% 2.5% 2.6% 2.8% 3.0% 2.3%Emerging Debt 545 798 -0.8% 4.6% 5.4% 5.4% 6.1% 6.6% 6.8%High Yield 1,961 1,082 -0.8% 6.5% 7.4% 7.2% 8.4% 9.5% 4.5%Convertibles 520 210 N/ASource: Barclays Capital  While longer-term inflationary pressures build, UST yields remain low reflecting both the global flight to quality away from Europe and continuing Fed stimulus actions. Yields across the spread sectors tightened, spurred by investors seeking higher yielding assets.  Spread products’ excess returns performance was mixed for Q3-2012:  Aggregate Bond: +107 bps excess return  Corporates: +324 bps excess return  ABS: +77 bps excess return  MBS: +71 bps excess return  CMBS: +332 bps excess return  High Yield: +394 bps excess return 9
  • Equity Market Performance – Trailing Returns • Investors‟ appetite for risk returned during Q3-2012 driven primarily by: 1. The ECB‟s announcement of an unlimited government bond- buying program boosted confidence; however, structural impediments continue to cast dark shadows over any real and/or perceived progress in resolving the Eurozone debt crises. 2. The Fed announcement of a third round of quantitative easing (i.e. QE3) with additional MBS purchases and the extension of Operation Twist through 2012.Source: Zephyr StyleAdvisor 10
  • WHERE ARE WE GOING?KEY ISSUES - LOOKING AHEAD 11
  • U.S. Financial Repression Will Continue• Financial repression allows governments to issue debt at lower interest rates than would otherwise be possible. A low nominal interest rate can help governments reduce debt servicing costs, while a high incidence of negative real interest rates liquidates or erodes the real value of government debt. Thus, financial repression is most successful in liquidating debts when accompanied by a steady dose of inflation, and it can be considered a form of taxation.• For U.S. core fixed income investors, financial repression will continue on the heels of QE3 and the flight to quality away from Europe. The raw earnings power of core fixed income portfolios will continue to deteriorate into 2013 and 2014 as reinvestment rates remain extremely low.• With current inflation assumptions (2.0-2.5%) at 9/30/2012, , the real yield of the Barclay’s Aggregate Index is between -0.39% and - 0.89%) 12 Source: Federal Reserve, J.P. Morgan Asset Management
  • When Might Financial Repression End...FOMC Interest Rate Projections? • What time period encompasses long-term and how might an inflationary spike change Fed direction after stating a low rate policy into 2015? • If creditor nations stopped buying Treasuries at current yields, what yield level would “clear the market”? • What impact would this new yield level (read: increased funds for debt service) have on Federal fiscal policy and initiatives? 13 Source: Federal Reserve, J.P. Morgan Asset Management
  • Unemployment• Unemployment remains a significant issue as current job growth still fails to attain a level that will fully replace the 4.3 million net jobs lost during the Great Recession.• While this glut in the labor market keeps wage growth/inflation under wraps, it also places a strain upon consumer spending growth. 14 Source: BLS, Fact Set, J.P. Morgan Asset Management
  • European Crisis • A monetary union effected in a neutral/good economic environment. • With no fiscal union or collective policies to address structural imbalances post-Great Recession, the monetary union is effectively undone via the government bond markets. • Austerity without growth will not solve the Eurozone crisis. • Crisis resolution will be arduous as various cultural and structural issues must be deftly handled to truly achieve any “grand bargain” for the Eurozone. • Greece is bankrupt. The real issue is whether to let them fail in an organized or unorganized manner. 15 Source: Fact Set, ECB , J.P. Morgan Asset Management
  • U.S. Government Finances & The Fiscal Cliff• In some ways, it makes little difference who wins the oval office in November as the structural issues of America‟s deficit must be dealt with in some fashion. Regarding the most austere version of the fiscal cliff. the general consensus is that some deal will be hastily made before year end to defer the first wave of reckoning until Q1-2013. 16 Source: U.S. Treasury, BEA, CBO, and J.P. Morgan Asset
  • Key Questions to Ask Now:- What is our projected book yield (investment income) assuming interest rates do indeed stay low for longer?- Can we consider changing our risk/reward profile? - Duration - Credit - Liquidity - „Risky Bucket‟ Size and Diversification- Should the change be strategic (preferred) or tactical (difficult to execute)?- Do we have the right investment manager to execute the strategy?- Do we have the right benchmark(s)?- Most importantly: How do our current and proposed investment strategies dovetail with the Board‟s/senior management‟s risk appetite? (Quantitatively and qualitatively) 17