0
37644-376 | Commercial in confidence
Spectrum demand for wireless access
services
Presentation for ACMA RadComms conferenc...
37644-376 | Commercial in confidence
Introduction
Key issues
Methodology
Preliminary results
Contents
2
37644-376 | Commercial in confidence
Analysys Mason delivers business benefits to
clients worldwide
▪Analysys Mason is a t...
37644-376 | Commercial in confidence
ACMA has engaged us to prepare spectrum
demand and market forecasts to 2025
▪We are l...
37644-376 | Commercial in confidence
Introduction
Key issues
Methodology
Preliminary results
Contents
5
37644-376 | Commercial in confidence
Forecasting growth in mobile data traffic
▪Forecasts of mobile data traffic in
Austra...
37644-376 | Commercial in confidence
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
%trafficoffloaded
Home/work Wi...
37644-376 | Commercial in confidence
Forecasting fixed wireless and satellite traffic
in light of key role played by NBN C...
37644-376 | Commercial in confidence
Forecasting the impact of emerging
technologies and requirements
▪10 years is a long ...
37644-376 | Commercial in confidence
Introduction
Key issues
Methodology
Preliminary results
Contents
10
37644-376 | Commercial in confidence
Mobile model structure
11Methodology
Spectrum availableSpectral efficiency
Site capac...
37644-376 | Commercial in confidence
Mobile subscriber growth
▪From 2012 to 2025, the number of
handsets grows from 23.4m ...
37644-376 | Commercial in confidence
Mobile traffic drivers
▪Forecasts are based on traffic by
technology (3G vs 4G) and t...
37644-376 | Commercial in confidence
Fixed wireless and satellite
14Methodology
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2010
2011...
37644-376 | Commercial in confidence
Mobile geotypes
▪Our model considers five geotypes based
on population density:
– Den...
37644-376 | Commercial in confidence
Introduction
Key issues
Methodology
Preliminary results
Contents
16
37644-376 | Commercial in confidence
With our base case traffic relatively few
capacity-only sites are required
▪Chart sho...
37644-376 | Commercial in confidence
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2...
37644-376 | Commercial in confidence
Fixed wireless and satellite
▪We understand that NBN Co expects
to support ~60 active...
37644-376 | Commercial in confidence
At this stage we are looking for inputs to help
validate our preliminary findings
▪At...
37644-376 | Commercial in confidence
Contact details
21
Philip Bates
Senior Manager
philip.bates@analysysmason.com
Analysy...
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Spectrum demand for wireless access services - Philip Bates, Director, Analysys Mason

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Transcript of "Spectrum demand for wireless access services - Philip Bates, Director, Analysys Mason"

  1. 1. 37644-376 | Commercial in confidence Spectrum demand for wireless access services Presentation for ACMA RadComms conference 2 October 2013 • Philip Bates
  2. 2. 37644-376 | Commercial in confidence Introduction Key issues Methodology Preliminary results Contents 2
  3. 3. 37644-376 | Commercial in confidence Analysys Mason delivers business benefits to clients worldwide ▪Analysys Mason is a trusted adviser on telecoms, technology and media ▪We work with our clients, including operators, regulators and end users, to: – design winning strategies that deliver measurable results – make informed decisions based on market intelligence and analytical rigour – develop innovative propositions to gain competitive advantage – implement operational solutions to improve business efficiency ▪We are respected worldwide for our exceptional quality of work, independence and flexibility in responding to client needs ▪For 25 years, we have been helping clients in more than 100 countries to maximise their opportunities 3 Assignments completed Introduction Analysys Mason has offices in: Boston • Cambridge • Dubai • Dublin • Edinburgh • Johannesburg London • Madrid • Manchester • Milan • New Delhi • Paris • Singapore
  4. 4. 37644-376 | Commercial in confidence ACMA has engaged us to prepare spectrum demand and market forecasts to 2025 ▪We are looking at wireless access services for consumers and business including: – Mobile services – Fixed wireless services – Satellite services – Wi-Fi (note spectrum use for specialist emergency services, transportation, defence etc is out of scope) 4 ▪We have been asked to prepare quantitative forecasts for each year from 2015 to 2020 plus 2025 ▪We have also been asked to provide qualitative analysis of the factors which may influence demand ▪Our modelling also forms an input to The CIE’s work on the economic impact of mobile broadband (to be presented this afternoon) Introduction Project timeline July August September October November December Kick-off Preliminary results Initial research & analysis Modelling Stakeholder feedback Finalise deliverables Hand over to ACMADraft report
  5. 5. 37644-376 | Commercial in confidence Introduction Key issues Methodology Preliminary results Contents 5
  6. 6. 37644-376 | Commercial in confidence Forecasting growth in mobile data traffic ▪Forecasts of mobile data traffic in Australia vary considerably, but those published in 2013 are fairly close to each other, and significantly lower than those published in 2011-12 ▪For our base case we have used a consensus forecast based on data provided by the operators, which is towards the high end of other 2013 forecasts ▪In the longer term we have assumed that growth continues to accelerate until 2018, but starts to tail off from 2019 onwards 6 Mobile data traffic in Australia Key issues Sources: Operator-supplied data; Analysys Mason; Cisco VNI 2013; Ericsson Mobility Reports 2013 and 2012; 2011 ACMA White Paper 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Mobiledatatraffic(PBpermonth) Operator consensus (2013) Analysys Mason (2013) Cisco (2013) Ericsson (2013) ACMA (2011) Ericsson (2012)
  7. 7. 37644-376 | Commercial in confidence 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 %trafficoffloaded Home/work Wi-Fi offload Total outside Wi-Fi offload Outside cellular traffic Home/work cellular traffic Forecasting how mobile data traffic will be split between cellular and Wi-Fi networks 7 Mobile data traffic offloaded through Wi-Fi as a percentage of total mobile data traffic Categorisation of mobile data offloading by origin of traffic and type of offload Key issues Note: Offload percentages are for small- and mid-screen devices Only a small proportion of total data traffic is carried on mobile networks and most offloading takes place at home or in the workplace Private offload Public offload Mobile operator offload Carrier Class Wi-Fi Passive offload Active offload At home or in the office Away from home and the office
  8. 8. 37644-376 | Commercial in confidence Forecasting fixed wireless and satellite traffic in light of key role played by NBN Co ▪Demand for spectrum is determined in large part by the technical and commercial decisions made by a single company 8Key issues • 2300 sites across Australia • Expected to cover ~500 000 premises • Take-up expected to be ~100 000 households by 2020 • 2 Ka-band satellites with 103 spot beams covering 100% of Australia • High up-front cost for fixed amount of capacity Satellite FWA Interdependent
  9. 9. 37644-376 | Commercial in confidence Forecasting the impact of emerging technologies and requirements ▪10 years is a long time in this industry: – 5 years ago there were no tablets – 10 years ago there were no smartphones – 15 years ago there was no Wi-Fi ▪New generations of mobile technology typically come along every 10 years – 2G was introduced in 1993 in Australia, followed by 3G in 2003 and 4G in 2011 – it is likely that 5G will be available in Australia before 2025, but at this stage it is hard to define when this technology will appear or to quantify the impact 9Key issues 2G in Australia Wi-Fi launch 3G in Australia iPhone launch 4G in Australia Potential start of 5G iPad launch
  10. 10. 37644-376 | Commercial in confidence Introduction Key issues Methodology Preliminary results Contents 10
  11. 11. 37644-376 | Commercial in confidence Mobile model structure 11Methodology Spectrum availableSpectral efficiency Site capacity Traffic forecast Cell radii Network coverage by geotype Sites required for coverage Input Calculation Total sites required Extra sites required for capacity Number of devices Usage per device Sensitivity Extra usage By operator, technology and year: Extra spectrum Spectral efficiency Traffic distribution
  12. 12. 37644-376 | Commercial in confidence Mobile subscriber growth ▪From 2012 to 2025, the number of handsets grows from 23.4m to 28.9m of which: – Voice only users decrease from 6.6m down to 2.9m – Voice and data users increase from 16.8m to 26m – Penetration remains at 103% ▪Tablets subscriptions grow from 1m to 6.4m – From 4% to 23 % penetration ▪Dongle/laptops subscriptions grow from 3.7m to 4.5m – Penetration remains at 16% 12 Mobile subscribers in Australia Methodology Source: Analysys Mason forecast built from operators’ data 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Handsets Of which voice only Of which voice and data Tablets Dongles/laptops Subscribers(thousand)
  13. 13. 37644-376 | Commercial in confidence Mobile traffic drivers ▪Forecasts are based on traffic by technology (3G vs 4G) and type of device (handsets, tablets, dongles/laptops) ▪We assume that there will a large number of M2M devices but that traffic per device will be small so M2M will not have a significant impact on overall traffic ▪Voice forecast per subscription is assumed similar for voice only and voice and data handsets 13 Data traffic by subscription (MB/month) Methodology Source: Analysys Mason forecast built from operators’ data 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 3G handset 4G handset 3G tablet 4G tablet 3G dongle/laptop 4G dongle/laptop
  14. 14. 37644-376 | Commercial in confidence Fixed wireless and satellite 14Methodology - 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 GBperconnectionpermonth Fixed FWA Satellite Subscriber numbers (derived from NBN Co corp plan) Usage (scaled off AM’s forecast of fixed broadband usage) 22 39 52 80 100 122 148 165 178 191 208 221 237 245 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Endofyuearsubscribers (thousand) FRS LTSAS 0 17 35 54 74 82 91 95 104 111 117 127 135 141 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 Endofyearsubscribers (thousand) FWA Satellite
  15. 15. 37644-376 | Commercial in confidence Mobile geotypes ▪Our model considers five geotypes based on population density: – Dense urban – Urban – Suburban – Rural – Remote ▪We assume that networks are rolled out from the most densely-populated areas to the least densely-populated ▪2013 coverage levels are derived from public sources. We assume that by 2020 LTE coverage matches today’s 2G/3G coverage ▪Cell radius also varies by geotype (as well as frequency) 15 ▪We assume different amounts of spectrum by operator and geotype, based on actual metropolitan, regional and national holdings ▪We assume that with each technology, an operator first of all builds a coverage layer using a single band (though in the case of Telstra and Optus the coverage band for LTE is assumed to be 1800MHz until 2014 then 700MHz from 2015 onwards) ▪When additional capacity is required we assume that this is first provided by adding additional capacity bands at existing cell sites ▪Once the capacity bands are exhausted we assume that operators start to build additional capacity-only sites Methodology
  16. 16. 37644-376 | Commercial in confidence Introduction Key issues Methodology Preliminary results Contents 16
  17. 17. 37644-376 | Commercial in confidence With our base case traffic relatively few capacity-only sites are required ▪Chart shows number of sites by technology for all operators in Australia – Total is more than number of unique sites in Australia because many sites support multiple technologies ▪In 2020 the split is as follows: – 2G: 16.5k sites – 3G: 7.2k pure coverage sites, 7.3k with capacity upgrades and 500 capacity sites – 4G: 14.6k pure coverage sites, 7.0k with capacity upgrades and 2.3k capacity sites 17 Logical sites for all operators Preliminary results – base case Source: Analysys Mason 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 4G capacity sites 4G coverage sites with capacity upgrade 4G purely coverage sites 3G capacity sites 3G coverage sites with capacity upgrade 3G purely coverage sites 2G capacity sites 2G coverage sites with capacity upgrade 2G purely coverage sites
  18. 18. 37644-376 | Commercial in confidence 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 4G capacity sites 4G coverage sites with capacity upgrade 4G purely coverage sites 3G capacity sites 3G coverage sites with capacity upgrade 3G purely coverage sites 2G capacity sites 2G coverage sites with capacity upgrade 2G purely coverage sites Increasing data traffic by 50% has relatively little impact on the total site count ▪As a sensitivity we increased the amount of traffic by 50% in 2020 ▪For the total market, this would require: – 3G: Upgrading 900 more sites and building 600 more capacity sites – 4G: Building an additional 1.2k sites – 4G: Upgrading 1.8k more sites and building 2.2k more capacity sites 18 Logical sites for all operators Preliminary results – sensitivity with higher traffic Source: Analysys Mason
  19. 19. 37644-376 | Commercial in confidence Fixed wireless and satellite ▪We understand that NBN Co expects to support ~60 active subscribers per base station in 2025 ▪Based on our traffic forecasts we expect this will require an average of <60MHz of spectrum per base station ▪Since NBN Co has 63 or 98MHz of 2.3GHz spectrum in most of its licensed area, plus 2 x 32.5MHz of 3.4GHz spectrum in many areas, we conclude that it generally has sufficient spectrum to 2025, but we accept that there may be constraints in the ‘metropolitan fringes’ 19 ▪Based on the class-licensed spectrum currently available, we expect that each of NBN Co’s new satellites will have a total capacity of 80-100Gbps ▪Based on our traffic forecasts this capacity could be exhausted by 2025 ▪However, the satellite system is being designed based on the spectrum currently available and would probably not be able to make use of additional spectrum released later FWA Satellite Preliminary results
  20. 20. 37644-376 | Commercial in confidence At this stage we are looking for inputs to help validate our preliminary findings ▪At present we are assuming that some 3G capacity sites are decommissioned in the period 2014-2018 – if these sites were maintained and traffic forced on to them then fewer 4G sites would be required ▪Results are sensitive to the assumptions about: – % of traffic in the busy hour – distribution of traffic within geotypes – evolution of average spectral efficiency of 3G and 4G networks – extent to which existing spectrum is refarmed We welcome inputs on all of these points ▪Based on the feedback that we receive, we aim to finalise the mobile model (and the rest of the study) in November 20Preliminary results
  21. 21. 37644-376 | Commercial in confidence Contact details 21 Philip Bates Senior Manager philip.bates@analysysmason.com Analysys Mason Limited Bush House, North West Wing Aldwych, London WC2B 4PJ, UK Tel: +44 20 7395 9000 www.analysysmason.com Registered in England No. 5177472
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