Manpower Outlook Survey Q2 2009

745 views

Published on

Published in: Technology, Business
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
745
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
11
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
9
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Manpower Outlook Survey Q2 2009

  1. 1. Q2 2009 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey India A Manpower Research Report
  2. 2. 2
  3. 3. Q2/09 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey India Contents India Employment Outlook 1 Regional Comparisons Sector Comparisons Employment Outlook 14 International Comparisons – Asia Pacific International Comparisons – Americas International Comparisons – Europe International Comparisons – EMEA About the Survey 23 About Manpower 24
  4. 4. 4
  5. 5. India Employment Outlook Indian employers predict steady headcount growth during The Manpower Quarter 2 2009. With 25% predicting an increase in headcount, 6% forecasting a decrease and 64% Employment Outlook anticipating no change, the resulting Net Employment Outlook stands at a favorable +19%. Survey for the second Throughout this report, we use the term “Net Employment quarter 2009 was Outlook.” This figure is derived by taking the percentage of employers anticipating total employment to increase, conducted by interviewing a and subtracting from this, the percentage expecting to see a decrease in employment at their location in the next representative sample of quarter. The result of this calculation is the Net Employment Outlook. 3,335 employers in India. Quarter-over-quarter, hiring intentions have remained All survey participants were relatively stable, but comparison with Quarter 2 2008 reveals a 17 percentage point decline in the Outlook, asked, “How do you reflecting considerably weaker hiring plans. Once seasonal adjustments are added to the data, the anticipate total employment Outlook is a healthy +25%, reflecting solid opportunities for job seekers over the upcoming quarter. Quarter-over- at your location to change quarter, the Outlook improves by a moderate 6 percentage points, although it is weaker by a considerable in the three months to the 17 percentage points year-over-year. end of June 2009 as From this point forward, all data discussed in the commentary is seasonally adjusted, unless stated compared to the current otherwise. quarter?” 5
  6. 6. Manpower Employment Outlook Survey India Regional Comparisons Employers in all four regions predict a strong labor market the West. In the East there is more consistency with in Quarter 2 2009, with the most optimistic forecast in the Quarter 1 2008, and the Outlook has only declined by a East, where the Net Employment Outlook stands at slight 2 percentage points. +27%. Outlooks for the South, West and North are Based on unadjusted survey data, employers in all four +24%, +23% and +22%, respectively. regions predict positive hiring activity for the forthcoming Quarter-over-quarter, hiring intentions have strengthened quarter. The strongest hiring intentions are reported in the in all four regions. In the East, the Outlook is 7 percentage East, where the Outlook is a healthy +24%, followed by points stronger, while in the South and West, it has the South, where the Outlook is +20%. In the North and improved by 5 percentage points, and by 4 percentage the West, favorable Outlooks of +17% are reported. points in the North. Quarter-over-quarter the Outlook remains relatively stable in two regions, the North and West, and improves slightly However, year-over-year comparison reveals weaker in the East and South. Year-over-year, the Outlook has hiring plans in all four regions. The Outlook has declined by declined in all four regions. a considerable 19 percentage points in both the North and South, and there is a similar 18 percentage point decline in 6
  7. 7. North + 22 (22)% East + 27 (27)% With a Net Employment Outlook of +22%, employers in In the East, employers predict a particularly healthy the North forecast solid headcount growth during hiring climate in Quarter 2 2009. With a Net Quarter 2 2009. Their hiring plans have strengthened Employment Outlook of +27%, employers report a slightly, quarter-over-quarter, with a 4 percentage point moderate 7 percentage point improvement in hiring improvement in the Outlook. Year-over-year, however, prospects quarter-over-quarter. Year-over-year, however, the Outlook is weaker by a considerable 19 percentage the Outlook is slightly weaker, by 2 percentage points. points. Based on unadjusted survey data, the Outlook is +24%, Based on unadjusted survey data, the Outlook is +17%, following a slight 4 percentage point improvement and has remained relatively stable quarter-over-quarter. quarter-over-quarter. Year-over-year, the Outlook has Year-over-year, the Outlook is weaker by 19 percentage declined by 2 percentage points. points. South + 22 (22)% West + 27 (27)% In the South, employers predict an active labor market With a Net Employment Outlook of +23%, employers in in Quarter 2 2009, reporting a Net Employment Outlook the West forecast strong hiring prospects for the of +24%. Quarter-over-quarter, the Outlook improves by forthcoming quarter. The current Outlook is a 5 5 percentage points, but year-over-year it is a percentage point improvement on Quarter 1 2009, considerable 19 percentage points weaker. revealing stronger hiring intentions. But year-over-year, the Outlook declines by 18 percentage points. Based on unadjusted survey data, the Outlook is +20%. Quarter-over-quarter, it has improved by 2 percentage Based on unadjusted survey data, the Outlook is +17%, points while year-over-year there has been a relatively stable quarter-over-quarter but weaker by 18 considerable 19 percentage point decline. percentage points year-over-year. 7
  8. 8. Manpower Employment Outlook Survey India Sector Comparisons Employers in all seven industry sectors expect Comparison with Quarter 2 2008 reveals weaker hiring headcount to grow during Quarter 2 2009. The most intentions in all seven sectors. The decline has been optimistic projections are reported in the Services steepest in the Mining & Construction and the Finance, sector, with a strong Net Employment Outlook of +29%. Insurance & Real Estate sectors, by 28 and 26 In the Transportation & Utilities sector, the Outlook is a percentage points, respectively. The smallest decline is healthy +23%, while it is +22% for both the reported by employers in the Public Administration & Manufacturing and the Public Administration & Education sector, but even here, the decline has been a Education sectors, and +21% for the Finance, considerable 10 percentage points. Insurance & Real Estate sector. Based on unadjusted survey data, employers forecast Quarter-over-quarter, hiring intentions are stronger in six positive hiring activity in all seven sectors for Quarter 2 of the seven sectors, with the strongest improvement of 2009. The Public Administration & Education sector is 11 percentage points reported by employers in the expected to see the strongest growth, with an Outlook Transportation & Utilities sector. A more moderate of +22%, and employers in the Services and increase of 7 percentage points is reported for the Transportation & Utilities sectors report Outlooks of Wholesale & Retail Trade sector, while both the Services +20%. Quarter-over-quarter, Outlooks have improved in and Public Administration & Education sector Outlooks four sectors, but declined in two, most notably the 11 are 6 percentage points stronger. Employers in the percentage point decrease in the Mining & Construction Mining & Construction sector, however, report a slight 3 sector. Year-over-year, Outlooks have weakened in all percentage point decline. seven sectors. 8
  9. 9. Finance, Insurance & Real Estate Manufacturing Employers predict healthy headcount growth in Quarter With a Net Employment Outlook of +22%, employers in 2 2009. They report a Net Employment Outlook of the Manufacturing industry sector expect healthy hiring +21%, which represents a slight 4 percentage point prospects for job seekers during Quarter 2 2009. improvement on the previous quarter. However, year- Quarter-over-quarter, hiring intentions have improved over-year, hiring plans have weakened sharply, with a 26 slightly, with a 4 percentage point increase, although percentage point decline in the Outlook. year-over-year the Outlook is weaker by a considerable 15 percentage points. Based on unadjusted survey data, the Outlook is +13% and has declined both quarter-over-quarter and year- Based on unadjusted survey data, the Outlook is +18%, over-year, by 3 and 26 percentage points, respectively. remaining relatively stable quarter-over-quarter, but weakening by 15 percentage points year-over-year. Mining & Construction Public Admin/ Education In the Mining & Construction industry sector, employers Public Administration & Education industry sector have upbeat hiring plans for the forthcoming quarter, employers forecast healthy growth in staffing levels for reporting a Net Employment Outlook of +20%. Quarter 2 2009, reporting a Net Employment Outlook of However, this is the least optimistic Outlook reported for +22%. Quarter-over-quarter, hiring plans have the sector since the survey began in Quarter 3 2005, improved, with the Outlook increasing by 6 percentage following a slight 3 percentage point decline quarter- points. Year-over-year, however, the Outlook is weaker over-quarter and a steep 28 percentage point decrease by 10 percentage points. year-over-year. Based on unadjusted survey data, the Outlook is +22%, Based on unadjusted survey data, the Outlook is +12%. reflecting a 7 percentage point improvement quarter- Quarter-over-quarter, the Outlook decreases by a over-quarter, but a 9 percentage point decline year-over- considerable 11 percentage points, while year-over-year year. 9
  10. 10. Manpower Employment Outlook Survey India Transportation & Utilities Services Solid hiring prospects are anticipated in the Services Transportation & Utilities industry sector employers industry sector, where employers report a Net expect an active labor market in Quarter 2 2009, Employment Outlook of +29% for Quarter 2 2009. reporting a Net Employment Outlook of +23%. This Quarter-over-quarter, the Outlook has strengthened by 6 reflects considerably stronger hiring intentions quarter- percentage points, although year-over-year it is weaker over-quarter, with the Outlook improving by 11 by a considerable 19 percentage points. percentage points, although year-over-year it is weaker by 14 percentage points. Based on unadjusted survey data, the Outlook is +20% for the second successive quarter, but weaker by 20 Based on unadjusted survey data, the Outlook is +20%, percentage points year-over-year. having improved by 7 percentage points quarter-over- quarter but declining by 13 percentage points year-over- year. 10
  11. 11. Manpower Employment Outlook Survey India Wholesale & Retail Trade With a Net Employment Outlook of +18%, sector employers predict a favorable hiring climate for Quarter 2 2009. The Outlook improves by a moderate 7 percentage points quarter-over-quarter, although year- over-year, it weakens by 17 percentage points. Based on unadjusted survey data, the Outlook is +14%, and has improved by a slight 2 percentage points quarter-over-quarter. Year-over-year, the Outlook has declined by a considerable 17 percentage points. 11
  12. 12. Manpower Employment Outlook Survey India Global Employment Outlook 12
  13. 13. Over 72,000 employers have been interviewed across employers in Colombia, Peru and Costa Rica remain 34 countries and territories to measure anticipated somewhat optimistic. However, employers in the United employment trends* between April and June 2009. States report the gloomiest Outlook since the 1982 Employers in 13 of the 34 countries and territories recession, and Mexican employers report their least Manpower surveyed expect to add to their workforces optimistic Outlook – and the country's first negative in Quarter 2 2009. However, where year-over-year forecast – since Manpower began surveying there in comparisons can be made, hiring expectations are 2002. In the Asia Pacific region, job prospects are decidedly weaker in all countries and territories surveyed generally less optimistic with employers in all countries compared to 12 months ago. Notably, employers in 24 and territories surveyed except India reporting weaker countries and territories are reporting the weakest hiring hiring plans compared to the previous quarter. plans since the surveys were established there by Meanwhile, employee hiring plans weaken in all of the Manpower. Israeli employers also join the survey this countries and territories compared to one year ago. In quarter. the Europe, Middle East & Africa (EMEA) region, Despite weaker second-quarter forecasts, employment Outlooks decline from three months ago in 12 of 17 prospects are most favorable in India, South Africa, countries, with employers in Italy, the Czech Republic Colombia, Peru, Poland, China, the Netherlands and and South Africa anticipating a slightly improved hiring Costa Rica. Employer hiring expectations are weakest pace. Outlooks have declined in all 17 of the region's in Singapore, Ireland, Spain, New Zealand, Taiwan, Italy countries where year-over-year comparisons are and the United Kingdom. possible. On a regional basis, employment prospects are mixed, * Commentary is based on seasonally adjusted data but reveal a generally downward trend. In the Americas, where available. Survey Respondents by Region Research for the Quarter 2 2009 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey involved surveying over 72,000 human resource directors and senior hiring managers from public and private organizations worldwide: 58% of the respondents came from eight countries in the Americas; 22% from 18 countries in EMEA: and 20% from eight countries and territories across Asia Pacific. (Quarterly Barometer Chart: Content on page 11 of this document) 13
  14. 14. Manpower Employment Outlook Survey India International Comparisons – Asia Pacific Nearly 15,000 interviews have been conducted across half of all employers indicating they will trim payrolls in the Asia Pacific region to measure anticipated hiring the next three months. Employers in Australia, Japan activity between April and June 2009. and New Zealand are reporting their first negative Outlooks since the surveys were established in these Employer hiring confidence continues to decline countries. throughout most of the region. Only employers in India and China expect to add employees in the quarter Employers in India and China are anticipating the most ahead, and only employers in India report improved favorable hiring activity in the region for the upcoming hiring plans compared to three months ago. The year- quarter, while those in Hong Kong, Japan, New over-year hiring pace is expected to be notably weaker Zealand, Singapore and Taiwan report the least throughout the region, with employers in six of the optimistic hiring intentions. Notably, employers in region's eight countries and territories reporting their Australia, China, Japan, New Zealand, Singapore and weakest hiring plans since the surveys began. Hiring Taiwan are reporting their least optimistic hiring plans intentions in Singapore continue to drop sharply, with since the surveys began there. Australia China Hong Kong India 14
  15. 15. Japan New Zealand Singapore Taiwan 15
  16. 16. Manpower Employment Outlook Survey India International Comparisons – Americas Over 42,000 interviews have been conducted across Employers in Colombia are forecasting the most Argentina, Canada, Colombia, Costa Rica, Guatemala, optimistic hiring plans in the region, with employers in Mexico, Peru and the United States to measure Peru, Costa Rica and Canada also reporting positive but employment prospects for Quarter 2 2009. less optimistic Net Employment Outlooks for the quarter ahead. On the other hand, first-quarter hiring intentions While positive Net Employment Outlooks are reported in are weakest in Mexico, the United States, Argentina and four of the eight countries surveyed, the hiring pace is Guatemala; the Outlook from Mexican employers is the expected to slow from 12 months ago in each of the weakest since Manpower established the survey there seven countries where year-over-year data is available. in 2002. The Outlooks for Argentina, Colombia, Costa The hiring pace is also expected to slow in every Rica, Guatemala and Peru are also the least optimistic country compared to three months ago, with negative reported to date. hiring intentions reported in Mexico, the United States, Argentina and Guatemala. Argentina Canada Colombia Costa Rica 16
  17. 17. Guatemala Mexico USA Peru 17
  18. 18. Manpower Employment Outlook Survey India International Comparisons – EMEA Over 15,000 interviews have been conducted with pessimism in the Finance and Manufacturing sectors is employers across 18 countries to measure anticipated contributing to fewer opportunities for job seekers – employment trends for Quarter 1 2009. Israeli particularly in the United Kingdom, Spain and Ireland employers participate in the survey for the first time. where employer hiring plans are some of the weakest Of the countries surveyed in the Europe, Middle East reported globally. and Africa (EMEA) region, only employers in South Employers in South Africa, Poland and the Netherlands Africa, Poland, the Netherlands, Switzerland, Austria, are forecasting the most favorable hiring activity, while Belgium and Norway are reporting positive, but modest, employers in Ireland and Spain are the least optimistic second-quarter hiring activity. However, in countries for the quarter ahead. Furthermore, employers in where year-over-year comparisons can be made, all France, Greece, Ireland, Norway, Poland, Romania, expect cutbacks. In comparison to three months ago, Spain and Sweden also report their least optimistic only Outlooks from Austria, France and South Africa are hiring plans since the surveys were launched in these relatively stable, while Italian employers report a slightly countries. improved but still negative forecast. Growing employer Austria Belgium Czech Republic France 18
  19. 19. Germany Greece Ireland Italy Netherlands Norway Poland Romania 19
  20. 20. South Africa Spain Sweden Switzerland UK 20
  21. 21. About the Survey Throughout this report, we use the term “Net Employment Outlook.” This figure is derived by taking The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is the percentage of employers anticipating an increase in conducted quarterly to measure employers' intentions hiring activity and subtracting from this the percentage to increase or decrease the number of employees in of employers expecting to see a decrease in their workforce during the next quarter. The survey has employment at their location in the next quarter. The been running for more than 45 years and is one of the result of this calculation is the Net Employment Outlook. most trusted surveys of employment activity in the Net Employment Outlook world. Various factors underpin the success of the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey: Throughout this report, we use the term “Net Unique: It is unparalleled in its size, scope, longevity and Employment Outlook.” This figure is derived by taking area of focus. the percentage of employers anticipating an increase in Projective: The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey hiring activity and subtracting from this the percentage is the most extensive, forward-looking employment of employers expecting to see a decrease in survey in the world, asking employers to forecast employment at their location in the next quarter. The employment over the next quarter. In contrast, other result of this calculation is the Net Employment Outlook. surveys and studies focus on retrospective data to Seasonal Adjustment report on what occurred in the past. Seasonal adjustments have been applied to the data for Focused: For more than four decades, the survey has Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, China, France, derived all of its information from a single question. Germany, Hong Kong, India, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Singapore, Independent: The survey is conducted with a Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, the United representative sample of employers from throughout the Kingdom and the United States to provide additional countries in which it is conducted. The survey insight into the survey data. These adjustments make it participants are not derived from Manpower's customer possible to review the data without the employment base. fluctuations that normally occur at the same time each Robust: The survey is based on interviews with over year, thus providing a clearer picture of the data over 72,000 public and private employers across 34 time. Manpower intends to add seasonal adjustments to countries and territories to measure anticipated the data for other countries in the future, as more employment trends each quarter. This sample allows for historical data is compiled. Note that in Quarter 2 2008, analysis to be performed across specific sectors and Manpower adopted the TRAMO-SEATS method of regions to provide more detailed information. seasonal adjustment for data. History of the Survey Methodology 1962 1st generation of the Manpower Employment The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is Outlook Survey launched in the United States and Canada. conducted using a validated methodology, in accordance with the highest standards in market 1966 Manpower's United Kingdom operation research. The research team for the 33 countries and launches the equivalent of the United States territories where the survey is currently conducted survey, naming the report the Quarterly Survey includes Manpower's internal research team and of Employment Prospects. The survey adopts the same forward looking research format as Infocorp Ltd. The survey has been structured to be the United States survey and is the first of its representative of each national economy. The margin of kind in Europe. error for all national, regional and global data is not greater than +/- 3.9%. 1976 2nd generation of Manpower's Employment [Add national information and margin of error here] Outlook Survey launched in the United States and Canada. Research methodology is updated Survey Question to evolve with advancements in the field of All employers participating in the survey worldwide are market research. 21
  22. 22. 2002 Manpower United Kingdom's Quarterly Survey 2008 Manpower operations in Colombia, the Czech of Employment Prospects is updated to adopt Republic, Greece, Guatemala, Poland and an enhanced research methodology. Romania join the survey program. China and Manpower's operations in Mexico and Ireland Taiwan add seasonally adjusted data in the launch the survey in their respective countries. second quarter. India and Switzerland add seasonally adjusted data in the third quarter. 2003 3rd generation of the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is launched, expanding the 2009 Manpower operations in Israel join the survey program to a total of 18 countries worldwide: program. Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, France, About Manpower Inc. Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Netherlands, Norway, Singapore, Manpower Inc. (NYSE: MAN) is a world leader in the Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom and United employment services industry; creating and delivering States. services that enable its clients to win in the changing world of work. Founded in 1948, the $22 billion 2004 Manpower operations in New Zealand launch company offers employers a range of services for the the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey. entire employment and business cycle including 2005 Manpower operations in China, India, permanent, temporary and contract recruitment; Switzerland, and Taiwan launch the Manpower employee assessment and selection; training; Employment Outlook Survey. outplacement; outsourcing and consulting. Manpower's worldwide network of 4,400 offices in 82 2006 Manpower operations in Costa Rica and Peru countries and territories enables the company to meet join the survey program. Surveys in Australia, the needs of its 400,000 clients per year, including small Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Hong and medium size enterprises in all industry sectors, as Kong, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Mexico, well as the world's largest multinational corporations. Netherlands, Norway, Singapore, Spain and The focus of Manpower's work is on raising productivity Sweden add seasonally adjusted data in the through improved quality, efficiency and cost-reduction third quarter. Manpower operations in South across their total workforce, enabling clients to Africa launch the Manpower Employment concentrate on their core business activities. Manpower Outlook Survey. Inc. operates under five brands: Manpower, Manpower Professional, Elan, Jefferson Wells and Right 2007 Manpower operations in Argentina join the Management. More information on Manpower Inc. is Manpower Employment Outlook Survey. The survey in New Zealand adds seasonally available at www.manpower.com. adjusted data in the first quarter. 22
  23. 23. Manpower Services India Pvt. Ltd. A-26/1, First Floor, Mohan Cooperative Industrial Estate, Mathura Road, New Delhi 110044 India Tel: +91 (11) 40555400 www.manpower.co.in © 2008, Manpower Inc. All rights reserved.

×