Issue-Based Problem Solving

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    Great presentation of the most fundamental tool in strategy development.
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Issue-Based Problem Solving - Presentation Transcript

  1. ARNAUD CHEVALLIER / MAY 2009 ISSUE-BASED PROBLEM SOLVING © Copyright, Arnaud Chevallier. All rights reserved.
  2. We all solve problems daily “How should we complement our product porfolio?” “Why haven’t we met our sales target?” “How can we reduce illegal immigration?” ... 2 :41
  3. But most of us haven’t received formal training on how to do it 3 :41
  4. Basing your resolution process on key issues can help 4 :41
  5. This presentation shows how to define a problem and how to plan its solution Basing your problem But we don’t do We all solve solving on key issues it optimally problems can help Identify the solution Define the problem Understand Define the key Build the Improve it the context question issue tree 5 :41
  6. Basing your problem solving on key issues can help Identify the solution Define the problem Understand Define the key Build the Improve it the context question issue tree 6 :41
  7. Basing your problem solving on key issues can help Identify the solution Define the problem Understand Define the key Build the Improve it the context question issue tree 6 :41
  8. You have to identify the right key question From Cartoonbank.com 7 :41
  9. This can be more difficult than it sounds Problem: the cars of the employees of a company don’t fit into the parking lot From Cartoonbank.com 8 :41
  10. For instance, it is easy to consider only one aspect of the problem How can we increase the capacity of the lot? 9 :41
  11. For instance, it is easy to consider only one aspect of the problem Expending its dimensions How can we increase the capacity of the lot? Putting more cars in the current space 9 :41
  12. For instance, it is easy to consider only one aspect of the problem Building a new floor Expending its dimensions Using a new parcel How can we increase the capacity of the lot? Putting more cars in the current space 9 :41
  13. For instance, it is easy to consider only one aspect of the problem Building a new floor Expending its dimensions Using a new parcel How can we increase the capacity of the Reducing the size of lot? each space Putting more cars in the current space Reducing the area not dedicated to parking 9 :41
  14. For instance, it is easy to consider only one aspect of the problem (cont’d) How can we reduce the number of cars? 10 :41
  15. For instance, it is easy to consider only one aspect of the problem (cont’d) Reducing the number of employees How can we reduce the number of cars? Increasing the number of employees per car 10 :41
  16. For instance, it is easy to consider only one aspect of the problem (cont’d) Moving part of the company elsewhere Reducing the number of employees Eliminating jobs How can we reduce the number of cars? Increasing the number of employees per car 10 :41
  17. For instance, it is easy to consider only one aspect of the problem (cont’d) Moving part of the company elsewhere Reducing the number of employees Eliminating jobs How can we reduce the Making that more number of cars? employees use other Increasing the number means of transportation of employees per car Promoting car pooling 10 :41
  18. So ensure you are solving the right problem (not a part, not a symptom) Building a new floor Expending its dimensions Using a new parcel How can we increase the capacity of the Reducing the size of lot? each space Putting more cars in the current space How can we Reducing the area not dedicated to parking solve the saturation of the Moving part of the lot? Reducing the company elsewhere number of employees Eliminating jobs How can we reduce the Making that more number of employees use other Increasing cars? means of the number of transportation employees per car Promoting car pooling 11 :41
  19. The key question encompasses all the other relevant ones ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ✘ ✔ Key question 12 :41
  20. The key question must have the right scope: neither too narrow nor too wide Make the key question... Neither too vague Nor too narrow / oriented in the wrong direction / based on a hypothesis / compounded 13 :41
  21. To fully describe your problem you must complement your key question with an introductory flow... Situation: C The key issue: the non controversial, relevant information about the O N problem. ONLY the relevant information T E Complication: X The unique need for change (potentially illustrated by some of its T symptoms/consequences) Key question: THE question you want to answer From Barbara Minto, The Minto Pyramid Principle 14 :41
  22. ... and a definition of the environment Criteria for a high-quality tree: Optional action that will ensure that your tree is of superior quality S c o Implementation parameters: Out of scope: p Deadlines, budget, numerical Actions that you could take but e objectives, etc. decide upfront not to Use only action verbs 15 :41
  23. At the end, you might find it convenient to summarize your problem in a problem definition worksheet Problem Definition Worksheet Project: Situation: C The key issue: the non controversial, relevant information about the O problem. ONLY the relevant information N T E Complication: X T The unique need for change (potentially illustrated by some of its symptoms/consequences) Key question: THE question you want to answer Criteria for a high-quality tree: A Optional action that will ensure that your tree is of superior quality L C A N Out of scope: Implementation parameters: C Deadlines, budget, numerical Actions that you could take E objectives, etc. but decide upfront not to 16 :41
  24. Basing your problem solving on key issues can help Identify the solution Define the problem Understand Define the key Build the Improve it the context question issue tree 17 :41
  25. Basing your problem solving on key issues can help Identify the solution Define the problem Understand Define the key Build the Improve it the context question issue tree 17 :41
  26. Issue trees have four basic rules Go from the key question to the analysis Are MECE Issue trees Are perspicacious Ask “why” or “how” 18 :41
  27. A tree goes from the key question to the hypotheses How can we increase our profitability 19 :41
  28. A tree goes from the key question to the hypotheses Key question Sub-issue How can we ➚ our revenues? How can we increase our profitability How can we ➘ our costs? 19 :41
  29. A tree goes from the key question to the hypotheses Sub-sub- Key question Sub-issue issue ➚ prices? How can we ➚ our revenues? ➚ volume? How can we increase our profitability How can we ➘ our costs? 19 :41
  30. A tree goes from the key question to the hypotheses Sub-sub- Key question Sub-issue issue ➚ prices? How can we ➚ our revenues? ➚ volume? How can we increase our profitability Raw materials costs? How can we Employee ➘ our costs? costs? Other costs? 19 :41
  31. A tree goes from the key question to the hypotheses Sub-sub- Sub-...- Key question Sub-issue issue issue Of all products? ➚ prices? Of only specific products? How can we ➚ our revenues? ➚ volume? How can we increase our profitability Raw materials costs? How can we Employee ➘ our costs? costs? Other costs? 19 :41
  32. A tree goes from the key question to the hypotheses Sub-sub- Sub-...- Key question Sub-issue issue issue Of all products? ➚ prices? Of only specific products? How can we ➚ our ➚ publicity? revenues? ➚ volume? How can we ➚ offers? increase our profitability Raw materials costs? How can we Employee ➘ our costs? costs? Other costs? 19 :41
  33. A tree goes from the key question to the hypotheses Sub-sub- Sub-...- Key question Sub-issue issue issue Of all products? ➚ prices? Of only specific products? How can we ➚ our ➚ publicity? revenues? ➚ volume? How can we ➚ offers? increase our profitability ➘ the quantity of raw Raw materials materials? costs? Get cheaper How can we Employee raw ➘ our costs? materials? costs? Other costs? 19 :41
  34. A tree goes from the key question to the hypotheses Sub-sub- Sub-...- Key question Sub-...-issue Sub-issue issue issue Of all products? ➚ prices? Of only specific products? How can we ➚ our ➚ publicity? revenues? ➚ volume? How can we ➚ offers? increase our profitability For all products ➘ the quantity of raw Only for specific Raw materials materials? products costs? Switching suppliers Get cheaper How can we Employee raw ➘ our costs? materials? Negotiating better costs? Other costs? 19 :41
  35. A tree goes from the key question to the hypotheses Sub-sub- Sub-...- Hypothesis Key question Sub-...-issue Analysis data Sub-issue issue issue H1: Increasing the price of our entire family product will A1: Conduct Of all D1: Client generate more simulation, products? interviews revenue than the one benchmark lost because of the ➚ prices? associated sales volume decrease Of only specific products? H2: ... A2: ... D2: ... How can we ➚ our H3: ... A3: ... D3: ... ➚ publicity? revenues? ➚ volume? H4: ... A4: ... D4: ... How can we ➚ offers? increase our profitability For all products ➘ the quantity of raw Only for specific Raw materials materials? products costs? The analysis tests if Switching suppliers Get cheaper How can we the hypothesis Employee raw ➘ our costs? materials? Negotiating better costs? makes sense; it doesn’t explain how to implement it! Other costs? 19 :41
  36. Each column describes in further detail—or solves— the previous one Sub-sub- Sub-...- Key question Sub-...-issue Sub-issue issue issue Because they think they don’t need it Because they don’t want Because they are Because they lazy don’t take Because they courses Because can’t they don’t want to take Because they a first one prefer to use Why aren’t there other delivery more instructors methods taking improvement courses online? ... Because they didn’t like it Because they tried it but don’t want to take Because they another think they don’t need it 20 :41
  37. Items in the tree are ideas: questions, action verbs, hypotheses. They aren’t just titles 21 :41
  38. Items in the tree are ideas: questions, action verbs, hypotheses. They aren’t just titles How can we How can we increase revenue? increase profitability? How can we reduce costs? 21 :41
  39. Items in the tree are ideas: questions, action verbs, hypotheses. They aren’t just titles Increasing revenues How can we How can we How can we increase revenue? increase increase profitability? profitability? How can we Reducing costs reduce costs? 21 :41
  40. Items in the tree are ideas: questions, action verbs, hypotheses. They aren’t just titles Increasing revenues How can we How can we How can we increase revenue? increase increase profitability? profitability? How can we Reducing costs reduce costs? Raw materials? How can we Employees? ➘ costs? Costos? 21 :41
  41. Items in the tree are ideas: questions, action verbs, hypotheses. They aren’t just titles Increasing revenues How can we How can we How can we increase revenue? increase increase profitability? profitability? How can we Reducing costs reduce costs? Raw materials? Revenue How can we increase How can we Employees? profitability? ➘ costs? Costs Doesn’t work because Costos? ✘ you have to infere what to do with the revenue and costs 21 :41
  42. Each move to the right must bring some value Because they think they don’t need it Because they don’t want Because they are Because they lazy don’t take courses Because they can’t Because they don’t want to take a first Because they one prefer to use other delivery methods Why aren’t there more instructors taking improvement courses online? Because they didn’t like it Because they tried it but don’t want to take another Because they think they don’t need it 22 :41
  43. Issue trees always diverge: each column has more elements than the previous one... Adding the info of the new personnel Eliminating the How can we info of the maintain the personnel personnel leaving the database up to company date? Capturing the changes in the personnel moving within the company 23 :41
  44. Issue trees always diverge: each column has more elements than the previous one... Adding the info of the new personnel Eliminating the How can we Own info of the maintain the personnel personnel personnel leaving the database up to Outsourced company date? personnel Capturing the changes in the personnel moving within the company 23 :41
  45. Issue trees always diverge: each column has more elements than the previous one... 1 Adding the info Adding the info Own personnel of the new of the new personnel personnel Outsourced personnel Eliminating the How can we Own Eliminating the How can we info of the maintain the personnel info of the maintain the Own personnel personnel personnel personnel personnel leaving the database up to Outsourced leaving the database up to company date? Outsourced personnel personnel company date? Capturing the Capturing the changes in the changes in the personnel personnel 1 moving within moving within the company the company 23 :41
  46. ... similarly, each item has, at least, two sub-items An issue with a single sub-issue has a problem: Either there are other possibilities Or the group {issue / sub-issue} is redundant 24 :41
  47. ... similarly, each item has, at least, two sub-items An issue with a single sub-issue has a problem: Either there are other possibilities Or the group {issue / sub-issue} is redundant Increasing the inscription How can we get of new students more students? 24 :41
  48. Issue trees rely on mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive (MECE) groupings A B C B A B A D D C Mutually exclusive Collectively exhaustive MECE MECE? 25 :41
  49. Issue trees rely on mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive (MECE) groupings A B C B A B A D D C Mutually exclusive Collectively exhaustive MECE Because they don’t study enough MECE? Because I grade very steeply Why are the grades Because my evaluation of my students tool is inappropriate mediocre? Because the material of the exam wasn’t covered in class Because they don’t have the intellectual abilities 25 :41
  50. Issue trees rely on mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive (MECE) groupings A B C B A B A D D C Mutually exclusive Collectively exhaustive MECE Because they don’t study enough MECE? Because I grade very steeply Why are the grades Because my evaluation of my students tool is inappropriate mediocre? Because the material of the exam wasn’t covered in class Because they don’t have the intellectual abilities 25 :41
  51. Issue trees are perspicacious - Where am I? From Cartoonbank.com 26 :41
  52. Issue trees are perspicacious - Where am I? From Cartoonbank.com - In a car, M’am 26 :41
  53. Issue trees are perspicacious - Where am I? From Cartoonbank.com -At the intersection of Westheimer - In a car, M’am and Fourth. 26 :41
  54. Each trees progresses to the right consistently asking “why” or “how” (only one type for any given tree) 27 :41
  55. Each trees progresses to the right consistently asking “why” or “how” (only one type for any given tree) Diagnostic - “Why?” Cause Break the problem in its Problem Cause potential causes Cause 27 :41
  56. Each trees progresses to the right consistently asking “why” or “how” (only one type for any given tree) Diagnostic - “Why?” Cause Break the problem in its Problem Cause potential causes Cause Solution - “How?” Action Identify alternative solutions for the problem Problem Action Action 27 :41
  57. Each trees progresses to the right consistently asking “why” or “how” (only one type for any given tree) Diagnostic - “Why?” Cause Break the problem in its Problem Cause potential causes Cause Solution - “How?” Action Identify alternative solutions for the problem Problem Action Action Each tree follow the same pattern (either it is a “how” or a “why” but not both 27 :41
  58. “How” trees show alternative solutions to the problem, they do not describe a sequential process 28 :41
  59. “How” trees show alternative solutions to the problem, they do not describe a sequential process Using a plane Using a helicopter Flying Using a balloon How can I go Using a rocket from NYC to London? With a raft Traveling on the surface Swimming Traveling by sea Using a submarine 28 :41
  60. “How” trees show alternative solutions to the problem, they do not describe a sequential process Using a plane Using a helicopter Flying Using a balloon How can I go Using a rocket from NYC to London? With a raft Traveling on the surface Swimming Traveling by sea Using a submarine 28 :41
  61. “How” trees show alternative solutions to the problem, they do not describe a sequential process Using a plane Using a helicopter 1. Electing a Flying means of transportation Using a balloon How can I How can I go Using a rocket go from 2. Buying a from NYC to NYC to ticket London? London? With a raft Traveling on 3. Going to the surface the port/ airport Swimming Traveling by sea 4. Boarding Using a submarine Drawings are from Cartoonbank.com 28 :41
  62. “How” trees lead to actions that can solve the key question, no to some analysis How can we improve the elaboration of invoices? 29 :41
  63. “How” trees lead to actions that can solve the key question, no to some analysis How do we make the clients’ specifications clear? How can we improve the elaboration of invoices? 29 :41
  64. “How” trees lead to actions that can solve the key question, no to some analysis How do we make the clients’ specifications clear? How can we improve the elaboration of invoices? 29 :41
  65. “How” trees lead to actions that can solve the key question, no to some analysis How do we make the clients’ specifications clear? How can we improve the elaboration of invoices? How do we know if our employees understand the specifications? 29 :41
  66. “How” trees lead to actions that can solve the key question, no to some analysis How do we make the clients’ specifications clear? How can we improve the elaboration of invoices? How do we know if our employees understand the specifications? 29 :41
  67. “How” trees lead to actions that can solve the key question, no to some analysis How do we make the clients’ specifications clear? How can we improve the elaboration of invoices? How do we know if our How do we ensure that our employees understand the employees understand the specifications? specifications 29 :41
  68. “How” trees lead to actions that can solve the key question, no to some analysis How do we make the clients’ specifications clear? How can we improve the elaboration of invoices? How do we know if our How do we ensure that our employees understand the employees understand the specifications? specifications 29 :41
  69. A few tips can help improve your trees Make them parallel Diverge Accept alternatives How do you improve your Enlist others trees? Change as you go Make sense Adapt your level of confidence 30 :41
  70. Effective trees are parallel They are parallel in action 31 :41
  71. Effective trees are parallel They are parallel in action Improving the Improving the How can we shopping experience shopping experience improve our clients’ experience? Following up after Improving the post- the sales sale experience ✘ ✔ 31 :41
  72. Effective trees are parallel They are parallel in action Improving the Improving the How can we shopping experience shopping experience improve our clients’ experience? Following up after Improving the post- the sales sale experience ✘ ✔ They are parallel in construction 31 :41
  73. Effective trees are parallel They are parallel in action Improving the Improving the How can we shopping experience shopping experience improve our clients’ experience? Following up after Improving the post- the sales sale experience ✘ ✔ They are parallel in construction Reducing our delivery Reducing our time delivery time How can we Increasing our Increasing our improve the post- friendliness friendliness sale experience? How can we solve the Solving the problem ✘ ✔ problem the first time the first time out our? 31 :41
  74. Columns have elements of similar weight. You can check for this by ensuring that no column has an outlier Adding new services ✘ How do we increase Increasing prices revenues? Increasing volumes 32 :41
  75. Columns have elements of similar weight. You can check for this by ensuring that no column has an outlier Adding new services ✘ How do we increase Increasing prices revenues? Increasing volumes 32 :41
  76. Columns have elements of similar weight. You can check for this by ensuring that no column has an outlier Adding new services ✘ How do we increase Increasing prices revenues? Increasing volumes Increasing prices Increasing revenues with our current How do we services Increasing volumes increase ✔ revenues? Adding new services 32 :41
  77. You will need to be creative to have exhaustive trees, which will require to get out of your comfort zone Value of the idea Creative Obvious Absurd Difficulty of implementation Source: Accenture, Tools and Frameworks Pocket Guide 33 :41
  78. To be creative, be prepared to ignore the consequences of your ideas, at least at the beginning From Cartoonbank.com “Nice, but we’ll need an environmental-impact study, a warranty, recall bulletins, recycling facilities, and twenty-four- hour customer support.” 34 :41
  79. You can solve each problem with more than just one tree How do we reduce our costs? Ensure that for each division in your tree, you can find a name for the group of sub-issues you are creating 35 :41
  80. You can solve each problem with more than just one tree Reducing variable costs How do we reduce our costs? Direct Reducing fixed costs Indirect Classifying by ✔ cost type Ensure that for each division in your tree, you can find a name for the group of sub-issues you are creating 35 :41
  81. You can solve each problem with more than just one tree Reducing Reducing variable costs production costs How do we Reducing marketing reduce our costs costs? Reducing Direct administrative costs Reducing fixed costs Indirect Reducing other costs Classifying by Classifying by the ✔ ✔ cost type origin of the cost Ensure that for each division in your tree, you can find a name for the group of sub-issues you are creating 35 :41
  82. As your analysis moves forward, be prepared to modify your tree Apply judgement between “satisficing” (accepting the first acceptable solution) and “maximizing” (keep on searching for the optimal solution) Modify your tree as your analysis reveals if your hypotheses are true or false See also Barry Schwartz, The Paradox of Choice 36 :41
  83. As your build your analytical structure, review it periodically to ensure it makes sense “Farewell my dear fellows, I am off to the Seven Years War!” 37 :41
  84. Problems have different orders of complexity Problem types Role of expertise Role of facts Complexity RANDOM, DETERMINISTIC, DETERMINISTIC, RANDOM, FINITE CONTINUOUS DIRECT COMPUTED You can identify all A direct answer You can compute the possible answer The answer is part exist the answer but cannot pick the of a continuum, you correct one can only determine its range E.g. What is the E.g. How do you E.g. Who will be the E.g. How profitable height of the Eiffel convert liters to largest car will we be next Tower? gallons manufacturer in ten quarter? years? Adapted from Morgan Jones, The Thinker’s Toolkit 38 :41
  85. You need to adapt your confidence in your solutions accordingly Problem types Role of expertise and probability of error Role of facts and trust in findings Complexity RANDOM, DETERMINISTIC, DETERMINISTIC, RANDOM, FINITE CONTINUOUS DIRECT COMPUTED You can identify all A direct answer You can compute the possible answer The answer is part exist the answer but cannot pick the of a continuum, you correct one can only determine its range E.g. What is the E.g. How do you E.g. Who will be the E.g. How profitable height of the Eiffel convert liters to largest car will we be next Tower? gallons manufacturer in ten quarter? years? Adapted from Morgan Jones, The Thinker’s Toolkit 39 :41
  86. Closing, basing your problem solving on key issues can improve it drastically Basing your problem We all solve But we don’t do solving on key issues problems it optimally can help Define the problem Identify the solution Define the key Build the issue Understand the Improve it tree question environment Go from Don’t make Identify Be Define key Ask “why” Be it too the Define the perspicaci S, C, question to or “how” MECE narrow nor quality scope ous KQ analysis too vague criteria Adapt your Change as Accept Make Enlist Be parallel Diverge confidence you go alternatives sense others 40 :41
  87. References Linda Long, The Power of Logic in Problem Solving & Communication, Strategic Communication Consulting, 2004 Morgan D. Jones, The Thinker’s Toolkit, Random House: New York, 1998 James M. Higgins, 101 Creative Problem Solving Techniques, New Management Publishing Company: Winter Park, 1994 James Surowiecki, The Wisdom of Crowds, Random House, 2004 Barry Schwartz, The Paradox of Choice, HarperCollins, 2004 Strategic Services, Tools and Frameworks Pocket Guide, Internal Publication, Accenture Issue-Based Problem Solving, Internal Publication, Accenture Barbara Minto, The Minto Pyramid Principle, Minto International: London, 1996 Edward de Bono, Serious Creativity: Using the Power of Lateral Thinking to Create New Ideas Michael Michalko, Thinkertoys: A Handbook of Business Creativity for the 90s 41 :41
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