Transcript of "Earth Science and Applications from Space"
Earth Science and Applications from Space: National Imperatives Next Decade & Beyond December 8, 2008 Art Charo Space Studies Board
Agenda <ul><li>What is a Decadal survey? </li></ul><ul><li>Why Earth Science & Applications from Space (ESAS)? </li></ul><ul><li>Statement of Task & Key Challenges </li></ul><ul><li>Organization & Approach </li></ul><ul><li>Principal Recommendations </li></ul><ul><li>Media & Congressional Reaction </li></ul>
Decadal Survey Purpose & OSTP* Recommended Approach <ul><li>“ Decadal Survey benefits: </li></ul><ul><li>Community-based documents offering consensus of science opportunities to retain US scientific leadership </li></ul><ul><li>Provides well-respected source for priorities & scientific motivations to agencies, OMB, OSTP, & Congress” </li></ul><ul><li>“ Most useful approach: </li></ul><ul><li>Frame discussion identifying key science questions </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Focus on what to do, not what to build </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Discuss science breadth & depth (e.g., impact on understanding fundamentals, related fields & interdisciplinary research) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Explain measurements & capabilities to answer questions </li></ul><ul><li>Discuss complementarity of initiatives, relative phasing, domestic & international context” </li></ul>*From “The Role of NRC Decadal Surveys in Prioritizing Federal Funding for Science & Technology,” Jon Morse, Office of Science & Technology Policy (OSTP), NRC Workshop on Decadal Surveys, November 14-16, 2006
Astronomy: “Gold Standard” Decadal Survey OSTP response to Inquiries about Decadal Surveys, August 2006: “OMB uses surveys as a significant consideration in budget decisions each year, in addition to other budget & policy considerations.” “In particular, astronomy surveys are generally considered the gold standard of independent priority setting by a scientific community.”
Vision for First ESAS Decadal Survey A healthy, secure, prosperous & sustainable society for all people on Earth “ Understanding the complex, changing planet on which we live, how it supports life, & how human activities affect its ability to do so in the future is one of the greatest intellectual challenges facing humanity. It is also one of the most important for society as it seeks to achieve prosperity & sustainability.” NRC (April 2005)
ESAS Survey Statement of Tasks Post-2015 mission plans Identify important directions to influence planning for decade beyond 2015 5 Major focus of survey Recommend prioritized measurements & new capabilities & activities in NASA ESE & NOAA NESDIS to support national needs for Earth research & monitoring 2005-2015 4 Many user briefings Take into account principal federal & state users & identify opportunities & challenges to exploit data 3 Top-Ten Develop consensus of top scientific questions to focus Earth environmental observations 2005-2015 2 >100 multi-disciplinary experts on panels Assess progress resolving major scientific questions in relevant NRC, NASA, & other studies realizing desired predictive & applications capabilities via space-based Earth observations 1 Approach Task Statement Task
Key ESAS Survey Challenges <ul><li>Earth Science Community Buy-in </li></ul><ul><ul><li>– 1 st ESAS decadal survey: June 2005 received >100 10-15 page mission concepts in response to NRC ESAS survey Request for Information </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>– Earth science breadth - Sean Solomon, director Department of Terrestrial Magnetism, Carnegie Institute Washington: “.. report is important milestone because earth science community had never before spoken with one voice .” Eos , vol. 88, 6 Feb 2007 </li></ul></ul><ul><li>How to cover science/application themes & scientific disciplines </li></ul><ul><li>Multi-Agency Issues: NASA Transition to NOAA & Sustained NASA Research Ops </li></ul><ul><li>NASA/NOAA budget cuts & GOES/NPOESS cost growth/cancellations during study </li></ul>Woods Hole August 2004
Executive Committee & 7 Thematic Panels Human health U. Michigan, Human Health Panel Chair Mark Wilson Water resources U. Washington, Water Resources Panel Chair Dennis Lettenmaier Climate U. Texas, Climate Panel Chair Eric Barron Weather U. Colorado, Weather Panel Chair Susan Avery Land cover change & remote sensing U. Maryland, Ecosystems Panel Chair Ruth DeFries Solid earth & Natural hazards MIT, Solid Earth Panel Chair Brad Hagar Ecology & land remote sensing Pac. NW Natl Lab/UMd, Applications Panel Chair Tony Janetos Solid earth Risk Management Solutions Mary Lou Zoback Climate National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Warren Washington Policy Rice University Neal Lane Physical oceanography, satellite observation U. Washington Kathie Kelly Weather forecasting European Centre Medium-range Weather Forecasts Tony Hollingsworth Hazards & risk U. South Carolina Susan Cutter Civil space & Information Technology Microsoft Virtual Earth Bill Gail Remote sensing Former TRW (ret) Bruce Marcus Atmospheric science, chemistry Harvard University Jim Anderson Biogeochemical cycling U. New Hampshire, co-chair Berrien Moore Atmospheric science Univ. Corp. Atmospheric Research (UCAR), co-chair Rick Anthes Expertise Institution Member
Interim Report Set Stage (& Tone) for Survey <ul><li>“ Today, this system of environmental satellites is at risk of collapse .” NRC ESAS Interim Report, April 2005 </li></ul><ul><li>Since: More delays, descoping & cancellations… </li></ul>" In the short period since the Interim Report [Spring 2005], budgetary constraints & programmatic difficulties at NASA have greatly exacerbated this concern. At a time of unprecedented need, the nation’s Earth observation satellite programs, once the envy of the world, are in disarray. " 15 January 2007 Final Report Number USA Missions Number USA Instruments
400 Page Final Report* 15 January 2007 <ul><li>“ Overarching” recommendation: Renew investment in satellite Earth observing systems to restore US Earth Science & Applications leadership </li></ul><ul><li>Report recommends specific, integrated mission suite </li></ul><ul><ul><li>– Rolled-up panel recommendations preserve highest priorities </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>– Sequenced 2010-2020+ launches </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>– Cost matches anticipated resources + reasonable growth </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Guidance on budget & technology problems </li></ul>Recommendations build on current instruments & offer a new level of integration to address key science & yield critical societal benefits *Available at http://www.nap.edu/catalog/11820.html
Top Ten Scientific Questions <ul><li>10. Are major fault systems nearing release of stress via strong earthquakes? </li></ul>9. Will tropical cyclones & heat waves become more frequent & intense? 8. What are health impacts of expanded “Ozone Hole” that could result from stratosphere cooling associated with climate change? 7. Will rare diseases become common, how will mosquito-borne viruses spread with changes in rainfall & drought, & can we better predict avian flu? 6. How will boreal forests shift as temperature & precipitation change at high latitudes, & what effects on animal migrations & invasive species will occur? 5. How will coastal & ocean ecosystems respond to changes in physical forcing, particularly those subject to intense human harvesting? 4. How will economic development affect air pollution & transport across oceans & continents, & how are pollutants transformed during transport? 3. How will reduced snowfall affect water storage requirements? 2. Will droughts become more widespread in U.S., Australia, & sub-Saharan Africa, & how will that affect wildfires? 1. Will major ice sheets (including Greenland & West Antarctica) collapse, & if so, how rapidly & what sea-level rise will result?
Survey Driven by Societal Needs* Climate Prediction: Robust estimates of climate forcings for better forecasts, including local predictions of climate change effects *Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) Working Group Extreme Event Warnings: Better storm track forecasts & intensification predictions, volcanic eruption & landslide warnings for effective evacuation planning Human Health: Better infectious & vector-borne disease forecasts for control & response Earthquake Warning: Identify active faults & predict likelihood of earthquakes for effective structural improvements & informed land-use decisions Improved Weather Prediction: Longer-term, more reliable forecasts Sea-level Rise: Better ocean temperature & ice-sheet volume change forecasts & feedback for effective coastal community planning Air Quality: More reliable forecasts for effective urban pollution management Freshwater Availability: Improved precipitation & drought forecasts for better management Ecosystem Services: Improved agricultural land-use & ocean productivity forecasts to improve planting & harvesting schedules & fisheries management
Setting NOAA’s Foundation: Current Decade Recommendations <ul><li>Restore National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) canceled capabiilties: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Total solar irradiation (TSI) & Earth radiation budget (ERB) to avoid 2008-2012 gap </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Passive ocean vector winds & all-weather sea surface temperature Conical Microwave Imager/Sounder (CMIS) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Limb sounding by Ozone Monitoring & Profiling Suite (OMPS) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Restore next-generation Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-R) canceled capabilities: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>GEO temperature & water vapor vertical sounding originally planned via canceled GOES-R Hyperspectral Environmental Suite (HES) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Recognizing technology challenges & potential HES cost growth: </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Complete & launch Geostationary Imaging Fourier Transform Spectrometer (GIFTS), & evaluate as HES prototype; and/or </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Restore HES study contracts to focus on cost-effective, essential GOES-R sounding </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Will strengthen GEO sounding technology & provide experience for efficient operational implementation </li></ul></ul>GIFTS Spacecraft Artist Concept GIFTS/HES “4d” profile simulation (Univ. of Wisconsin) CMIS Model CMIS-like Rain Rate ~4m
Setting NASA’s Foundation: Current Decade Recommendations <ul><li>Near-term NASA concerns: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Understand changing precipitation patterns due to climate change </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Understand land-use effects of growing population, changing economies, & agriculture intensification </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Therefore: Maintain Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission & continue to document biosphere changes provided by Landsat </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Launch GPM by 2012 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Replace Landsat 7 data before 2012 </li></ul></ul>Sustained measurements of key climate & weather variables are part of committee’s strategy to achieve vision for Earth information in next decade Landsat 7 Landsat: Mt. St. Helens GPM Spacecraft GPM Microwave Imager
Next Decade Mission Selection & Prioritization <ul><li>Selection Process: </li></ul><ul><li>Panels reviewed >100 candidates, 35 recommended to Executive committee </li></ul><ul><li>Range & synergy of measurements critical, not individual missions </li></ul><ul><li>Robustness of mission synergies ensures measurements </li></ul><ul><li>Prioritization Criteria: (Not in order of importance) </li></ul><ul><li>Ability to complement other systems, US & international plans </li></ul><ul><li>Contribution to: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Applications & policy (societal needs) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Long-term observational record </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Multiple applications or science disciplines </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Top scientific questions </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Cost (mission total or per year) </li></ul><ul><li>Readiness (technical, resources, people) </li></ul><ul><li>Risk & strategic redundancy (backup other critical systems) </li></ul>
17 Recommended New Missions: “Minimal Yet Robust” <ul><li>NOAA & NASA missions launched from 2010-2020: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Seven “small” ($65M to $300 million, ~50% “error bar”) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Eight “medium” ($350M to $600M) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Two “large” ($700M & $800M, ~30% “error bar”) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>NOAA: Transition 3 LEO “research” to “operational” </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Extended Ocean Vector Winds Mission (XOVRM) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>GPS radio-occultation (GPSRO) temperature, water vapor, & electron density sounding </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Total solar irradiance via Climate Absolute Radiance & Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) & NPOESS </li></ul></ul><ul><li>NASA: Implement solar spectral portion of CLARREO & 14 other missions, 2 GEO (Geo-CAPE & PATH) & 12 LEO </li></ul><ul><li>15 LEO missions each include a GPS receiver to augment operational measurements of temperature & water vapor </li></ul>3D-Winds ACE ASCENDS CLARREO DESDynI GACM Geo-CAPE GPSRO GRACE-II HyspIRI ICESat-II PATH & LIST SCLP SMAP SWOT XOVRM
30 Measurement Types Across 7 Themes Most Measurements by Multiple Missions Ecosystem Carbon budget (1) Climate Ice Dynamics (2) Solid Earth High Resolution Topography (1) Health Heat Stress & Drought (6) Water Global Ocean Productivity (2) Ecosystem Global Ecosystem Dynamics (2) Ecosystem Ecosystem Structure & Biomass (2) Ecosystem Ecosystem Function (1) Water Cold Seasons (4) Weather Clouds, Aerosols, Ice, & Carbon (2) Weather All Weather Temperature & Humidity Profiles (2) Health Algal Blooms & Water-Borne Infectious Disease (5) Health Air Pollution (3) Weather Aerosol-Cloud Discovery (1) Health Acute Toxic Pollution Releases (3) Panel Theme Measurement Type (# missions) Water Inland & Coastal Water Quality (1) Water Water Vapor Transport (1) Health Vector-Borne & Zoonotic Disease (5) Weather Tropospheric Winds (1) Weather Tropospheric Ozone (3) Weather Tropospheric Aerosol Characterization (3) Solid Earth Surface Composition/Therm. Properties (1) Solid Earth Surface Deformation (2) Water Sea Ice Thickness, Glacier Surface Elevation, Glacier Velocity (2) Water Surface Water & Ocean Topography (2) Water Soil Moisture & Freeze/Thaw State (1) Weather Radio Occultation (14) Climate Radiance Calibration (2) Health Ozone Processes (5) Climate Ocean Circulation, Heat Storage, & Climate Forcing (3) Panel Theme Measurement Type (# missions)
Three Proven NOAA Missions *Sun-synchronous orbit (SSO) $150M GPS receiver LEO (4) High accuracy, all-weather temperature, water, electron density profiles (Climate, health, water, & weather) GPS radio occultation (GPSRO) $65M Broadband radiometers LEO, SSO* (2) Solar & earth radiance calibration for climate, ozone processes for health (Climate and health) Climate Absolute Radiance & Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO-Reflight instrumentation) Estimate Instruments Orbit (#) Measurement Types (Panel Themes) 2010-2013 $350M Backscatter radar, multi-frequency passive microwave radiometer LEO, SSO Sea surface wind vectors for ocean circulation, heat storage, & climate forcing Extended Ocean Vector Winds Mission (XOVWM) Estimate Instruments Orbit Measurement 2013-2016
Six 2016-2020 NASA Missions $650M Doppler lidar LEO, SSO (3) Weather forecasting, pollution & water vapor transport (Health, water, weather) 3-Dimensional Tropospheric Winds from Space-based Lidar (3D-Winds: Demo) $600M UV spectrometer IR spectrometer Microwave limb sounder LEO, SSO (7) Acute Toxic Pollution Releases, Air Pollution Cold Seasons, Global Ecosystem Dynamics, Ozone Processes, Tropospheric Aerosol Characterization & Ozone (Ecosystem, health, water, weather) Global Atmospheric Composition Mission (GACM) $500M Ku & X-band radars K & Ka-band radiometers LEO, SSO (1) Snow accumulation for fresh water availability (Water) Snow & Cold Land Processes (SCLP) $450M Microwave or laser ranging system LEO, SSO (2) High temporal resolution gravity fields to track large-scale water movement (Climate and water) Gravity Recovery & Climate Experiment-II (GRACE-II) $450M Microwave array spectrometer GEO (5) All-weather temperature & humidity soundings for weather forecasting & SST, Heat Stress & Drought, Algal Blooms & Water-Borne Infectious Disease Vector-Borne & Zoonotic Disease, Cold Seasons (Health, water, weather) Precision & All-weather Temperature & Humidity (PATH) $300M Modified Laser altimeter LEO, SSO (3) Landslide hazards & water runoff, Heat Stress & Drought, Vector-Borne & Zoonotic Disease (Health, solid earth) Lidar Surface Topography (LIST) Estimate Instruments Orbit (#) Measurement Types (Panel Themes) Mission
Recommendations Synergistically Support Societal Needs Human Health Earthquake Warning Weather Prediction Sea-level Rise Climate Prediction Freshwater Availability Ecosystem Services Air Quality
Each Mission Serves Multiple Societal Needs Societal Need X X X XOVRM X X X X X SWOT X X SMAP X X SCLP X X X X X X PATH X X LIST X X ICESat-II X X HyspIRI X X GRACE-II X X X X X GPSRO X X X Geo-CAPE X X X GACM X X X X X DESDynI X X CLARREO X X ASCENDS X X X X ACE X Weather Prediction X X X 3d-Winds Sea Rise Human Health Freshwater Availability Ext Event Warning Ecosystem Services Earthquake Warning Climate Prediction Air Quality Mission
Program Ground Rules: If in Trouble, Pull Over <ul><li>Leverage International Efforts </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Restructure or defer mission if international missions meet most objectives </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Offer cost-effective additions to international missions to improve them </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Manage Technology Risk </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Sequence missions according to technological readiness & budget risk factors </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Reduce cost risk by investing early in technology challenges </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Establish readiness by technology demos before mission development </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Respond to Budget Pressures & Shortfalls </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Delay missions with small (~10%) cost growth </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Protect overarching program by canceling missions that substantially overrun </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Implement independent review so decisions on technical capabilities, cost, & schedule are in context of scientific objectives </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Maintain broad research program with reduced funds, accepting greater mission risk rather than descoping missions & science requirements </li></ul></ul>
NOAA NESDIS GOES/NPOESS & Recommended Mission (FY06$) Budget <ul><li>Earth observations accompanied by complementary observations of human activities & effects on Earth </li></ul><ul><li>Socioeconomics considered in Earth observation missions & recommended Earth Information System </li></ul><ul><li>Consider data assimilation from multiple sensors & all sources, including commercial & international partners </li></ul><ul><li>Create a climate data & information system to produce, distribute, & manage climate records from NPOESS, etc </li></ul><ul><li>Ensure early attention to data processing & distribution, with free or low-cost, easily-accessible data </li></ul>
NASA Earth Science Budget for Recommended Missions <ul><li>Increase studies & cross-cutting technology to: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Decrease risk </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Reduce costs </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Restore frequent launches & demo high-risk technology: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Replace Earth System Science Pathfinder (ESSP) with Venture low-cost research missions ($100M - $200M) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Focus on innovation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Train future leaders </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Support suborbital platforms: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Airborne programs suffered substantial diminution & should be restored </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Add Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to strategic plan </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Increase Research & Applications (R&A) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Space missions should have adequate R&A as well as operations & data analysis funding </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>R&A to be protected: Not reserve for hardware cost growth </li></ul></ul>
Minimal Robust Mission Summary <ul><li>NASA & NOAA should aggressively pursue technology for recommended missions &: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Plan transitions of useful research observations to operations </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Foster innovative space-based concepts </li></ul></ul><ul><li>NASA, NOAA & USGS increase high-performance computing, modeling & data assimilation </li></ul><ul><li>OSTP, with relevant agencies & science community, should: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Develop & implement plan to sustain global observations </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Accommodate complexity of agency responsibilities & capabilities </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Create NASA/NOAA Earth Science Applications Pathfinder (ESAP) for new capabilities </li></ul></ul>$7.5B* *FY06$
“Immediate” Media Reaction New York Times Editorial: Blinding Ourselves in Space January 21, 2007 “… National Academy of Sciences projected alarming decline in vital studies & monitoring. …since 2000 [NASA’s] budget for earth sciences decreased over 30% … By 2010, number instruments…likely to drop 40%…bound to hobble efforts to understand if hurricanes & heat waves [will be] more frequent & intense, ice sheets collapse & drive sea levels dangerously high, how fish stocks, deforestation, drinking water & air pollution are affected as populations grow... We need more data in coming years, not less.” January 23 2007 NYT Editorial Page Cartoon
Recent Congressional Reaction “ When accurate weather forecasting & climate research is increasingly important to the well-being of our citizens, this distinguished panel of experts is warning in no uncertain terms that ' the United States’ extraordinary foundation of global observations is at great risk.' " "I don’t think the National Academies could be clearer voicing its concern over the current state of affairs," added Chairman Gordon . "It’s not easy to find the money, but given the consequences of inaction, we must try." 13 February 2007 Dr. Rick Anthes, NRC Co-chair Dr. Berrien Moore, NRC Co-chair
Earth Science & Applications from Space: National Imperatives for Next Decade & Beyond Available at http://www.nap.edu/catalog/11820.html
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