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Anil Chandramani Ihs Chemical F Inancial Forum Ny2012
 

Anil Chandramani Ihs Chemical F Inancial Forum Ny2012

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My presentation at the IHS Chemical Financial Forum, NY June 2012

My presentation at the IHS Chemical Financial Forum, NY June 2012

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    Anil Chandramani Ihs Chemical F Inancial Forum Ny2012 Anil Chandramani Ihs Chemical F Inancial Forum Ny2012 Presentation Transcript

    • Managing Risks & Delivering Growth In the Chemicals Industry The IFC Approach in Emerging MarketsIHS Chemicals Financial Forum Anil ChandramaniNew York Chief Investment Officer andJune 13, 2012 Global Sector Lead, Chemicals & Fertilizers 1
    • A Brief Introduction…. 2
    • IFC is a Member of the World Bank Group IBRD IDA MIGA IFC Multilateral International Bank International International Investment and for Reconstruction Development Finance Corporation and Development Association Guarantee Agency Est. 1945 Est. 1960 Est. 1956 Est. 1988 Role: To promote institutional, To promote institutional, To promote private To reduce political legal and regulatory legal and regulatory sector development investment risk reform reform Clients: Governments of member Governments of poorest Private companies in Foreign investors in countries with per capita countries with per capita member countries member countries income between $1,025 income of less than and $6,055. $1,025Products: - Technical assistance - Technical assistance - Equity/Quasi-Equity - Political Risk Insurance - Loans - Interest Free Loans - Long-term Loans - Policy Advice - Policy Advice - Risk Management - Advisory Services Shared Mission: To Promote Economic Development and Reduce Poverty 3
    • IFC – over $100 bn invested in Emerging Markets since 1956 Largest multilateral source of loan/equity financing in the emerging markets – for the IFC FY11 Highlights private sector Founded in 1956 with 184 member countries Portfolio ~$50 billion Committed ~$16 billion AAA rated by S&P and Moody’s Mobilized >$7 billion Equity, quasi-equity, loans, risk management # of companies ~2,000 and local currency products # of countries 129 Loans may be foreign currency or, in several countries, may be local currency Takes market risk with no sovereign guarantees Promoter of environmental, social, and corporate governance standards Resources and know-how of a global development bank + flexibility of a merchant bank Holds equity in over 800 companies worldwide IFC Fiscal year: July 1 – June 30 4 4
    • IFC’s Global Reach •100+ country and regional offices worldwide •Moscow •Almaty •Washington •Istanbul •Cairo •New Delhi•Mexico City •Hong Kong •Dakar •Port-of-Spain •Bogota •Nairobi •São Paulo •Johannesburg •Buenos Aires IFC HQ/Hub Offices IFC Operational Centers IFC Country Offices 5 5
    • IFC: An Integrated Approach to Financing & Risk Management Global Industry Expertise World Bank Both Equity Synergies / and Debt Economic Financing. Analysis Long Term Mobilization incl. Risk Cooperation Management / Agreement with Political risk Multilaterals Mitigation Short Term Environmental Customer and Social + Financing and Advisory Supplier Financing Services 6
    • Presentation Highlights1. The Global Perspective of Risks Challenges for IFC’s financing the chemical approach in2. Petrochemicals: The Industry view Emerging sector Markets3. The IFC approach in Emerging Markets 7
    • Global Growth has weakened. Emerging Markets are driving global growth Historical and Forecast ?? GDP Growth6 105 84 63 42 2 01 -20 -4-1 -6 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 World Source: IMF Advanced economies Emerging and developing economies IFC Chemicals 8
    • Source: IMF Europe in Divergent Mode Impact on chemical Companies: Credit Squeeze, Higher Interest Rates, Refinancing Risks 20 6 15 10 4 5 0 2 -5 0-10-15 -2-20 Industrial Production Index GDP Growth-25 -4 (% Change/Same Period Prev. Year, Seas. Adj.) (constant prices)-30 -6 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 France Germany Italy Spain United Kingdom United States Germany European Union 1804.0 Inflation 160 Government Net Debt3.5 140 (% of GDP) (average consumer prices)3.0 120 1002.5 802.0 601.5 401.0 200.5 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20170.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 France Germany Greece IFC Chemicals 9 Ireland Italy Japan Germany European Union Portugal Spain United States
    • Unemployment has risen to the highest level since 1998. Youth unemployment is particularly high Youth Unemployment Unemployment Rate 25 Unemployment Rate 20 15 10 5 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 IFC Chemicals 10 France Germany Italy Spain Source: IMF
    • The crisis in the euro area has deepened and broadened.Spreads on sovereign bonds of economies on the periphery have reached new highsSource: IMF IFC Chemicals 11 Source: IMF
    • •Aging is increasing in the developed world, specially in Europe and Japan Old Age Dependency Ratios – Regions (Ratio of 65+ to 100 persons of working age 15-64) Labor Force growth (Rate per annum) Source: Credit Suisse, UN
    • Political decisions impact the direction of crises US 2012 French Elections 2012: There’s an increasing concern on how Mr. Hollande, the new Socialist French president, will manage the delicate European crisis. Greece Political Turmoil: After inconclusive general election in which both mainstream pro-Europe parties saw a dramatic collapse in support and anti-austerity groups increased their share of the vote. IFC Chemicals 13
    • US economy is regaining some traction though concerns remain. Is the worst behind us? Rising US Inflation Source: IMF But, S&P’s cut US Government’s AAA rating one notch. Investor unease also due to concerns that theObama administration and Republicans in Congress might not agree to significant reductions in the deficit The Fiscal Cliff is just ahead ? China holds $3 trillion in USD reserves and may look to diversity its portfolio. Might affect interest ratesand exchange rates IFC Chemicals 14
    • A New Middle East & North Africa?• Syria, Egypt, Libya, Sudan, South Sudan, Algeria, Tunisia, Yemen and Bahrain are experiencing political turmoil.While these countries are not large producers of olefins or derivatives, their geopolitical affairs and proximity to major oiland gas producers Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE, and Qatar impacted crude oil prices Proved Production Country/Region reserves 2009 % of World Algeri a 12.2 77.6 2.0% Egypt 4.4 35.3 0.9% Li bya 44.3 77.1 2.0% Tuni s i a 0.6 24.1 0.6% Total States in Conflict 61.5 214.1 5.6% Total Middle East 754.2 1,156.4 30.3% Total World 1,333.1 3,820.5 Source: BP Statistics Review Indicates country experiencing current political unrest. In total, these countries represent about 5% of the world’s oil productionChemicals and Petrochemicals• North African countries undergoing political unrest have significant production of methane derivatives like nitrogenfertilizers and methanol. In addition, Algeria is a major player in the international gas market and has pipelines thatconnect directly with Europe• Iran has been impeded by sanctions over its nuclear program, making it harder for Iranian firms to export chemicals• Any disruption of the Suez Canal would disrupt petrochemical exports to Europe and global trade beyond petrochemicals IFC Chemicals 15
    • How will tensions with Iran play out? GDP growth 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 IFC Chemicals 16
    • Arab --- Spring or Winter?Political risks are high: But can you afford to neglect these markets ? Important to manage political risks IFC Chemicals 17
    • Whither China: Soft landing? Chinas GDP growth (% change) 14.2 12.7 11.3 10.4 10.0 10.1 9.6 9.1 9.2 9.28.4 8.8 8.7 8.7 8.6 8.5 8.3 8.22000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: IMF IFC Chemicals 18
    • Current Account Balance and Components (In % of GDP) China: Average Base Metals Consumption and GDP per Capita China current account surplus : Yuan versus DollarIFC Chemicals19 Source: IMF, SEI
    • Growth Scenarios 20 •Source: IMF
    • Emerging and developing economies account for about half of global output. Global production retreated during second half of 2011 Source: IMF IFC Chemicals 21
    • Oil price: another shock? IFC Chemicals 22
    • Due to economical instability, volatility has been on the rise Source: IMF IFC Chemicals 23
    • The Global Economy is Highly Volatile The 2008 Financial Crisis shook us out ofMore than a decade of moderation and complacency. The world continues to change dramatically Important to Understand and Manage Risks Let your risk capabilities drive your strategy IFC Chemicals 24
    • Presentation Highlights1. The Global Perspective of Risks Challenges for IFC’s financing the chemical approach in2. Petrochemicals: The Industry view Emerging sector Markets3. The IFC approach in Emerging Markets 25
    • Global Chemical Exports by Country 2010 (billions of dollars) Global Chemical Output by Region 2010Basic Chemical and Plastics(cumulative production growth) Germany 220 (in billion US$) United States 171 China 109 148 157 France 96 264 Belgium 90 Japan 85 US, 720 United Kingdom 77 955 Netherlands 71 Switzerland 58 98 Ireland 54 4125 Italy 52 Korea Japan, 338 48 Taiwan 44 China, 903 Russia 37 Singapore 35 Spain 34 541 India 30 Canada 27 Asia-Pacific Western North Latin Africa and Central World Sweden 20 Europe America America Middle and Brazil 14 East Eastern Australia 13 Europe Mexico 11The global chemical industry generated about $4Tr of sales in 2010, including Pharmaceuticals.The global chemical sector has grown 24% in the last 10 years (2000-2010 CAGR).9 countries accounts for 69% of chemicals output (China, US, Japan, Germany, India, Korea, France, Italy, Brazil).Asia accounted for largest proportion of Global Chemical Turnover with 44%. China alone register 22% of globalmarket. Europe is the second largest market with 24% share of global shipment, Germany has the largestEuropean share with 6% of global market.40.7% of Global Chemicals Output value is exported. Western Europe countries export 88% of its output value,highlighting Germany which exports 96% of output, France 70%, UK 82%. 26 Source: American Chemistry Council
    • Cyclicality: we have to live with itVolume growth is volatile and pricing is often lagged to volumes Phosphatic Fertilizers : An example 27 Source: Fertilizer International, Deutsche Bank
    • The Industry is Capital Intensive 2010 Global Chemical Capital Spending and Historical Global Chemical Capital Spending as % of regional shipments400 400350 (billions of dollars) 350 (billions of dollars) 19%300 300250 250200 200 150150 100100 5% 50 4% 7% 4% 13%50 0 0 Central and Latin America Africa and North Western Asia Pacific 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Eastern Middle East America Europe North America Latin America Europe Western Europe Central and Eastern Europe Africa and Middle East Asia Pacific Capital Spending vs. Shipments Growth A new Refinery costs $5-8bn, while a Polyetilene Plant 30% (%) costs $2-4bn and Fertilizer Plant (Amonia, Urea) costs 20% 10% $1-2bn 0% 2010 Capex was around $247bn in 2010 -10% -20% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Growth Global Capital Spending Growth Global Shipments Include Pharmaceuticals 28
    • Historically, the Basic Chemicals Index has outperformed the S&P 500 on a relative price basis and as of Dec. 2010 it was 4.5x higher than S&P 500 On Fwd P/E basis, the Basic Chemicals Index provides 1.25x higher valuation than S&P 500Basic Chemicals Index has Outperformed the Market 29
    • Shale Gas: A Game Changer for the Petrochemical Industry? World proved reserves of natural gas are about 6,609 tcf (Source: EIA, 2010) and world technically recoverable gas resources are about 16,000 tcf, largely excluding shale gas Adding the identified shale gas resources increases total world technically recoverable gas resources by more than 40% to 22,600 tcf In the US, natural gas prices have decoupled from crude oil prices because of a plentiful supply of natural gas from shale and improvements in gas recovery technology (e.g. horizontal drilling) Given the price divergence between natural gas and crude oil, natural gas-based feedstock is becoming more cost competitive than oil-based feedstock 30 Source: Purvin & Gertz, IMF
    • Natural Gas prices by region (in $/MMBtu) UK: $6.56 Russia: $8.38 Belgium: $6.45 US: $2.0 Spain: $6.43 Uzbekistan: $1.46 Japan: $7.64 Iran: $1.75 Mexico: $3.73 $3.7 Saudi Arabia: $0.75 Nigeria: $1.50 Brazil: $10.00 Note: Uzbekistan price is for wet gas , i.e. natural gas before fractionation Source: CMAINatural gas prices are regional and differ widely between countriesUzbekistan, Mexico, and Nigeria have comparatively low gas pricesLow natural gas price regions tend to attract large investments IFC Chemicals 31
    • 32
    • Key Considerations for Managing Investment Risks• Country and Political Risks -> Varies country to country: political instability, expropriation,foreign exchange volatility• Competitive Advantage -> Gross margins and cash costs• Financial Structure-> Capital structure (debt/equity), debt servicing• Project Profile -> Sector, export vs. import market orientation (=> forex generation) , size ofoperations, complexity of unit, secured feedstock or off-take agreements, etc.• Sponsor Profile -> Management and technical experience, ability to commit capital• Mobilization -> Ability to raise capital (locally and internationally)• Environmental & Social -> Company commitment to quality standards and best practices tomanage environmental and social impact 33
    • Presentation Highlights1. The Global Perspective of Risks Challenges for IFC’s financing the chemical approach in2. Petrochemicals: The Industry view Emerging sector Markets3. The IFC approach in Emerging Markets 34
    • International Chemicals Working IFC Value Sector Finance Proposition with Corporation Activities IFC 35
    • IFC’s Products and Services Senior Structured Mezzanine Private Debt Finance Finance Equity• On-lending • Partial credit • Convertible debt • Common shares guarantees• Liquidity management • Subordinated debt • Preferred shares • Securitization• Acquisition financing • Other Tier II • Bond underwriting instruments• Warehousing facilities • Credit• Syndicated loans Enhancement Global Trade Advisory Sustainable Finance Program Services Finance • $1 billion program • Corporate governance • Carbon finance • Guarantees to issuing banks • Risk management • Renewable energy • 46 issuing banks in 24 • Small and medium business • Supply chain financing countries banking • Corporate governance • 92 confirming banks in 62 • Housing finance financing countries • Energy efficiency finance • $579 million of issued • Privatization guarantees in first 12 months 36 For more information see Annex 1
    • IFC Value Added Long-term Global Regional Environmental Sustainability Country RiskCompetitive Chemicals Knowledge & Social Risk Toolkit Mitigation Financing Expertise ManagementEquity Government 50 Years of Extensive Advice on Local Supplier Relations: 184 Sector Local Office Environmental DevelopmentFixed/Floating Finance Expertise Network and Social BestRates, Local Environmental Ministries form PracticesCurrencies Greenfield Local / Social Advice IFC’s BoD Transaction EquatorUp to 15 year Expansion/ Corporate Neutral broker Experience PrinciplesLoan Maturity Modernization Governance Role Modeled after World BankFlexible Corporate IFC Standards Local Reduced Risk of SynergiesAmortization Strategy Economic Expropriation, LocalProfile Development Breach of Access to ConsultationCatalyst for Contract, International and Disclosure HIV/AIDSother Investors Convertibility Investors Preventionand Lenders World Bank Technical CommunityEquity Synergies Advice DevelopmentParticipation Funding Withholding TaxCapital BenefitMobilization Partnership with MIGA 37 37
    • Local Currency Financing•IFC has committed over $6.0 billion of local currency loans in a variety of currencies since 1999 •(31 currencies currently available) 38 For more information see Annex 1
    • IFC Mobilization: (“B-Loan”) & Parallel Loans Top 10 IFC B-Loan Participants1. Calyon 3. Citigroup 5. ABN AMRO 7. Societe Generale 9. Natixis2. Cordiant Capital 4. ING Bank 6. BayernLB 8. HSBC 10. KBC Finance Ireland Loan Agreement Borrower IFC A + B Loans Participation B Loan •A loan is for IFC’s own account Agreement •B loan is for account of participant commercial banks •Only one loan agreement, signed by Participants the borrower and IFC •IFC is the lender of record for the entire loan (A+B) •IFC Loans exempt from withholding tax 39
    • MIGA’s Value Addition PropositionUmbrella of deterrence Facilitation of settlement of disputes MIGA’s Shareholders are the same as the Host •Host Country is motivated to find a solution Countries of investments Only a small proportion of MIGA-supported •Project sponsors and financiers have a vested projects encounter difficulties interest in continued success of projectMIGA guarantees provide downside protection on long- •5 claims paid out of 980 guarantees for total ofterm investments 616 projects since 1990 Equity covered up to 90% Debt covered up to 95% Tenor covered up to 15-20 years MIGA’s Risk Mitigation Solutions •Political (Country) Risk Insurance Coverage Currency Expropriation War and Civil Breach of Non Honoring of Transfer Disturbance Contract Sovereign Restriction and Obligations Inconvertibility •Guarantee holder can pick any combinations of coverage 40 For more information see Annex 1
    • Top 6 Reasons Why Clients Choose IFC 70% 60% 50%Percent 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Maturity Expertise Long-term Stamp of Global Bring in other partner Approval Presence sources of finance Reasons IFC Chemicals 41
    • International Chemicals Working IFC Value Finance Sector with Proposition Corporation Activities IFCNote: IFC’s “Chemicals & Fertilizers ” Business covers Refining, Petrochemicals, Fertilizers and Chemicals, both Organic and Inorganic as well as Chemicals Infrastructure and Retailing 42
    • Portfolio in 2010 – By Product Equity Portfolio – By Region Chemicals and Fertilizers Equity Portfolio by Region Portfolio Other Loans products 32% 38% Equity 30%Other products: Risk Management and Guarantees 43 43
    • IFC’s Chemicals, Petrochemicals, & Fertilizers Portfolio – 2011 ~$1.5 billion committed on IFC’s account Catalyzed over ~$17 billion in project investments By Sector By Region Agrochem 5% Other South Asia Infrastructure Petrochemicals Middle East & North 19% 28% 23% Africa 30% East Asia 15%Refineries Fertilizers Europe 10% 18% 10% Inorganic 16% Latin America Sub-Saharan & Caribbean Africa 8% 18% For more information please see Annex 2 44
    • IFC’s Experience in Refining and Petrochemicals Sector Petrochemicals Fertilizers Others/InfrastructureContinental Carbon of India Ltd. Engro Corporate, Pakistan JPMC Terminal, JordanNPC, Thailand: gas cracker ICS, Senegal: phosphoric acid IFC / SCB FacilityCopesul, Brazil: naptha cracker Indo Jordan, Jordan: phosphoric acid Engro Vopak, Pakistan: Chemical terminalCopene, Brazil: naptha cracker Engro Chemicals, Pakistan: ammonia Messer, Trinidad & Tobago: industrial gasesSamsung, Korea: petrochem/aromatics Trigen II, Trinidad & Tobago: ammonia Opet Petrolculuk, Turkey: fuel distribution complex restructuring Fosfertil, Brazil: SSP, TSP, MSP, DAP Antai, China: metallurgical cokeHMC Polymers, Thailand: PP GNFC, India: ammonia, urea Ecogreen I & II, Indonesia: oleochemicalsPetroken, Argentina: PP Deepak Nitrate, India: ammonia,Urea,DAP Darong, China: specialty chemicalsPoliteno, Brazil: PE PQB, Bolivia: ammonium nitrate UPL, India: pesticides, herbicidesIpiranga I & II, Brazil: PE, PP KuAz, Russia: ammonia, urea Gapco, Kenya: storage terminalIndelpro, Mexico Indo Egyptian, Egypt: phosphoric acid Zhong Chen, China: storage terminalProfalca, Venezuela: PP Koyo, China: ammonia, urea Galnaftogaz, Ukraine: petroleum retailerGrupo Zuliano, Venezuela: petrochem complex Abocol, Colombia: ammonium nitrate,NPK Dongyue, China: fluorine chemicals,Suzhou, China: PVC JIFCO, Jordan: DAP organicsiliconeVinythai, Thailand: PVC JPMC, Jordan: phosphate Atul, India: Dye and pesticide intermediatesEngro PVC, Pakistan: PVC Engro Emergency, Pakistan: urea Hikal, India: PharmaceuticalsTuntex, Thailand: PTA OCI Egypt: Corporate loan for fertilizers Vinati Organics (JV), India: specialty chemicalsRhodiaco, Brazil: PTA Paradeep Phosphates, India: DAPRhodia-ster, Brazil: PTA/PET Itafos Brazil: PhosRock & Acid RefineriesOxiteno, Brazil: EO/MEG Inorganic ChemicalsGirsa, Mexico: EO/MEG ERC Refinery, EgyptPralca, Venezuela: MEG Engro Polymers, Pakistan PSPC (Shell), PhilippinesGidesa, México: EG, PS Kanoria Vizag, India Star Petroleum (Caltex), ThailandTrikem, Brazil: PS Atul Ltd, India Refisan (Pecom), ArgentinaInnova, Brazil: styrene/PS Alexandria Carbon Black, Egypt: Carbon black Petrotel-Lukoil, RomaniaDaaboul, Syria: LAB Continental Carbon (CCIL), India: Carbon Black Alliance Oil Company, RussiaJose Methanol, Venezuela: methanol Maanshan I & II, China: Carbon blackKuAz, Russia: caprolactam Rain Calcining, India: calcined carbonEleme Petrochemicals, Nigeria: PE, PP Peroxythai, Thailand: hydrogen peroxideXinao, China: Coal-to-DME Chengdu, China: potassium hydroxide & PVCDCM Shiram, India: PVC Prodesal, Colombia: caustic soda, chlorineHimadri, India: Carbon Pitch, carbon black Meghmani Finechem, India: ChlorAlkaliGalaxy Chemicals, India: Surfactants Magadi Soda, Kenya: soda ashEIPET, Egypt: PET Lukovac Soda, Bosnia: soda ash Kanoria Chemicals, India: ChlorAlkali 45 Jiuda Salt, China: industrial salt For more information see Annex 2
    • International Chemicals Working IFC Value Finance Sector with Proposition Corporation Activities IFC 46
    • How We Finance Projects Project Type IFC Investment Up to 35% of project costGreenfield, total cost for IFC’s accountless than $50 million Up to 25% of project costGreenfield, total cost for IFC’s accountmore than $50 million Up to 50% of project costExpansion or rehabilitation for IFC’s accountGreenfield, expansion, 100% project cost for IFCrehabilitation and participating banks’ accounts •Umbrella for participants in IFC’s syndication program: IFC lender of record, immunity from taxation and provisioning requirements. •IFC’s total financing must be less than 25% of total company capitalization, and IFC does not manage or own largest stake. 47
    • Approaching IFC• Foreign or Domestic Sponsors New venture or expansion; private sector majority ownership only Project must be developmentally sound and commercially viable• Sponsor Commitment is Required Equity participation; pre-completion support/guarantees• Submit Preliminary Business Plan or Feasibility Study Brief project description, incl. technical feasibility and market study Information on sponsors and operator Environmental studies Information on requirements, financing plan and cash flow projections 48
    • IFC’s Project Cycle Internal Early Review Due Diligence Negotiation Disclosure Approvals and Disbursement Commitment• Client needs • Assessment of • Terms and • Environmental • Board • Fulfillment of determined business conditions of and social consideration conditions of potential, the IFC information disbursement• Contribution • Board approval risks, investment disclosed of project to • IFC funds opportunities • Legal review development • Action plan • Opportunity disbursed assessed • Financial and agreed for public • Signing of legal economic comment documents• Project Evaluation screened for potential risks • Compliance & issues with IFC’s social and• Site visit environmental• Mandate performance letter standards reviewed We Agree on a Specific Timeline to Meet Client’s Needs 49
    • INTERNATIONAL FINANCE CORPORATION How to contact us: Anil Chandramani Chief Investment Officer & Global Sector Lead, Chemicals & Fertilizers Washington DC Phone: +1-202-473-4081 +1-202-473- E-mail: achandramani@ifc.org 50