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Stanford University - E-Mobility - The future of the automobile. Presentation held by Sven Beiker, Director CARS - Stanford University, on October 26th, 2011at Stanford University at the E-Mobility ...

Stanford University - E-Mobility - The future of the automobile. Presentation held by Sven Beiker, Director CARS - Stanford University, on October 26th, 2011at Stanford University at the E-Mobility Symposium organized by the German State of Baden-Wuerttemberg.

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Stanford university   e-mobility Stanford university e-mobility Presentation Transcript

  • E-Mobility – The Future of the Automobile?How Much Electrification Do We Need, And Why Are We Doing This Again? Baden-Württemberg Forum „E-Mobility“ Stanford University October 24, 2011 Dr. Sven A. Beiker CARS Center for Automotive Research at Stanford automotive@stanford.edu, http://automotive.stanford.edu Executive Director, Center for Automotive Research at Stanford - CARS 416 Escondido Mall, Bldg 550/Room 131, Stanford, CA 94305-4021, USA (+1)650 736-1504, beiker@stanford.edu, http://automotive.stanford.edu
  • Electric Vehicle / Mobility Research At Stanford School of Engineering: Life Cycle Assessment Consumer Purchase Criteria Battery Technology Grad. School of Business: Policies for Electric Mobility Consumer Purchase Behavior School of Human. & Sciences: Driver Education & Anxiety Battery Technology School of Earth Sciences: Driving Patterns & Range
  • Which Problem(s) Are We Trying To Solve?Under which conditions does electric mobility: •  slow down global warming? •  decrease dependence on (foreign / scarce) resources? •  decrease air pollution? •  integrate into electric infrastructure? •  become the better alternative for consumers? è There is (probably) not just one answer! Climate Resources Pollution Infrastructure Consumers
  • Average Daily Miles Traveled – Rational Consideration? 100Cumulative Daily Distance / Total [%] 90 Germany US 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 Source: Pike Research, US DOT, Volkswagen Research Lab Compiled by M. Buckner, Lico Technology 0 15 30 45 60 75 90 105 120 135 150 165 180 Daily Total Travel Distance per Vehicle [mls]
  • Actual Considerations For Vehicle Purchase 100Cumulative Daily Distance / Total [%] 90 Germany US 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 Source: Pike Research, US DOT, Volkswagen Research Lab Compiled by M. Buckner, Lico Technology 0 15 30 45 60 75 90 105 120 135 150 165 180 Daily Total Travel Distance per Vehicle [mls]
  • Short- vs. Long-Term Considerations For Car Choice1. What powertrain concept will you buy as your next car? Electric None Plug-In 20% 3% Hybrid 2% Hybrid ICE 16% 59%2. Which car would you choose for a test drive next weekend? None ICE Hybrid Plug-In 2% 6% 4% Hybrid 11% Electric 77%Source: poll among 55 students in class ME302, January 2011
  • US / EU Surveys: EV Revolution Not Happening, Yet Challenges US consumers see regarding electric vehicles [1] 28% range and battery life 20% availability of charging stations 17 % total cost/affordability 9% high [purchase] cost of vehicles Challenges EU industry experts see regarding electric vehicles [2] 65% range 57% availability of charging stations 55% total cost/affordability 30% not suitable for everyday drivingAnalysts expect EVs to have 2% to 3% share of the new-car market by 2020 [3]Consumers are not ready for EVs or are EVs not ready for consumers?[1] “Energy + Environment Study”, Market Strategies International, Nov 2010 (1,168 interviews U.S. nationwide, Oct 14-25, 2010)[2] “European Automotive Survey 2011”, Ernst & Young, Aug 28, 2011[3] “Are Americans Willing to Try Electric Cars?”, The Wall Street Journal, Dec 1, 2010
  • Research To Understand / Help Consumer Concerns School of Engineering: ✗ Life Cycle Assessment ✗Consumer Purchase Criteria Battery Technology Grad. School of Business: Policies for Electric Mobility ✗Consumer Purchase Behavior ✗ School of Human. & Sciences: Driver Education & Anxiety Battery Technology School of Earth Sciences: ✗ Driving Patterns & Range
  • Range Anxiety, EV Research, And Lifecycle Emissions Typical Driving R&D Focus for Electric Vehicles 100Cumulative Daily Distance / Total [%] 90 Germany US 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 Source: Pike Research, US DOT, Volkswagen Research Lab Compiled by M. Buckner, Lico Technology 0 15 30 45 60 75 90 105 120 135 150 165 180 Daily Total Travel Distance per Vehicle [mls]
  • Which Vehicle Is The Most Sustainable? $10K Life-Cycle Emissions Externality Damages and Oil Premium Costs Oil Premium Military $8K Monopsony $6K Disruption Resources $4K Externality Damage $2K VOC $0 SO2 PM2.5 CV HEV PHEV20 PHEV60 BEV240 CV HEV PHEV20 PHEV60 BEV240 CV HEV PHEV20 PHEV60 BEV240 PM10 Pollution NOx CO BASE CASE OPTIMISTIC PESSIMISTIC GHGs US Avg Zero-Emission Coal Fired Climate Grid Mix Power Plant Power Plant Vehicle TypesSource: J. Michalek et al, “Valuation of plug- in vehicle life-cycle air emissions CV Conventional PHEV20 Plug-In 20km E-Range and oil displacement benefits”, HEV Hybrid Electric PHEV60 Plug-In 60km E-Range Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, July 2011 BEV240 Battery 240km Range
  • “Green” Vehicles Are Here –Which Is “The One”?
  • E-Mobility – The Future of the Automobile?The Future of the automobile is electric – the question just is how much…