The role of skills in recession and recovery by Chris Humphries
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×
 

The role of skills in recession and recovery by Chris Humphries

on

  • 1,533 views

Presentation by Chris Humphries at the Acas CIPD conference 2009 London, UK. (Acas.org.uk/summit09)

Presentation by Chris Humphries at the Acas CIPD conference 2009 London, UK. (Acas.org.uk/summit09)

Statistics

Views

Total Views
1,533
Views on SlideShare
1,492
Embed Views
41

Actions

Likes
0
Downloads
12
Comments
0

2 Embeds 41

http://www.acas.org.uk 38
http://www.slideshare.net 3

Accessibility

Categories

Upload Details

Uploaded via as Microsoft PowerPoint

Usage Rights

© All Rights Reserved

Report content

Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
  • Full Name Full Name Comment goes here.
    Are you sure you want to
    Your message goes here
    Processing…
Post Comment
Edit your comment

    The role of skills in recession and recovery by Chris Humphries The role of skills in recession and recovery by Chris Humphries Presentation Transcript

    • UK COMMISSION FOR EMPLOYMENT AND SKILLS The Role of Skills in Recession – and Recovery CIPD/ACAS Conference London 11 June 2009 Chris Humphries CBE Chief Executive UK Commission for Employment and Skills
    • Skills matter to earnings UK COMMISSION FOR EMPLOYMENT AND SKILLS Gross median annual earnings (£) by age for men, disaggregated by skill level, 1994–2006 Gross earnings (£000s) 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 AGE 2 Source: Cabinet Office, Getting On, Getting Ahead: A Discussion Paper: Analysing the Trends and Drivers of Social Mobility, 2008
    • Skills matter to employment status UK COMMISSION FOR EMPLOYMENT AND SKILLS 3 Source: ONS, Labour Force Survey 2008
    • Skills matter to occupational choice UK COMMISSION FOR EMPLOYMENT AND SKILLS 4 Source: ONS, Labour Force Survey 2008
    • Skills - the most damaging disadvantage? UK COMMISSION FOR EMPLOYMENT AND SKILLS The Low Skilled experience low and declining employment rates – the only disadvantaged group to do so 5 Source: UKCES, Ambition 2020: World Class Skills and Jobs for the UK, 2009, Chart 1.5, p 29 – DWP using Labour Force Survey
    • The current recession: Who’s lost their job? UK COMMISSION FOR EMPLOYMENT AND SKILLS Flows into unemployment April 08 – April 09 ‘In-flows’ Numbers % of total Managers and Senior Officials 193,985 5% Professional Occupations 133,980 4% Associate Professional and Technical 251,165 7% Administrative and Secretarial 439,810 12% Skilled Trades 500,615 13% Personal Service 187,630 5% Sales and Customer Service 598,725 16% Process, Plant and Machine Operatives 427,845 11% Elementary Occupations 1,039,050 28% Total 3,772,805 6 Source: NOMIS, and Oxford Economics, May 2009
    • Changing pattern of unemployment: April 2008 – April 2009 UK COMMISSION FOR EMPLOYMENT AND SKILLS 7 Source: The Guardian, 12 May 209 - http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/interactive/2009/jan/21/unemployment-map
    • UK national/regional skills variations UK COMMISSION FOR EMPLOYMENT AND SKILLS Percentage of working age population in employment by qualifications level Percentage in employment with Level 4 skills and above 50.0 London 45.0 40.0 Scotland 35.0 UK South East Wales North West South West Northern Ireland East Midlands 30.0 West Midlands North East East of England Yorkshire & Humber 25.0 45 43 41 39 37 35 33 31 29 27 25 Percentage in employment with Level 2 skills or below 8 Source: UKCES, Ambition 2020: World Class Skills and Jobs for the UK, 2009, Chart 2.1 – ONS Population Survey, Jan-Dec 2007
    • The UK Qualifications Profile 1997-2007: Good progress over last decade! UK COMMISSION FOR EMPLOYMENT AND SKILLS UK Qualification 1997 2007 1997-2007 Change Achievements 1997 – 2007 % Nos % Nos % Nos (‘000s) (‘000s) (‘000s) Level 5 3 1087 7 2274 110 +1187 +44% Level 4 18 6101 24 8060 32 +1959 Level 3 18 5999 20 6738 12 +739 Level 2 21 6865 20 6912 1 +47 Below Level 2 21 7074 17 6019 -15 -1055 No Qualifications 18 5920 12 4351 -26 -1569 -26% 9 Source: Labour Force Survey, 2008 – Note: Working age population 19 – 59/64
    • But progress at school level is too slow … UK COMMISSION FOR EMPLOYMENT AND SKILLS Population with at least upper secondary education, 2006 100% 80% 60% 40% UK Position: • 15th in OECD for ‘older workers’ 20% • 21st in OECD for ‘younger workers’ 0% d tria m y ey Hu t es Po ly m Po ain Fr y ov Re re a M al Ne s s Un A rk ite Ze lia G m Be nce No ny pu c er d Sw da nd er d e Tu o Ca lic Fi en Ki nd De nd G gar a Au nd ec Re bli it z lan an ic Ita ug iu do a rk Un w tra rw a na b la ed a us Sp nm la d ala Ko ex a ak pu la lg re Ne Irel St rt n Sw n ng er th ite Sl h ec Cz 25-34 year olds 45-54 year olds 10 Source: OECD, Education at a Glance 2008, Table A1.2a
    • 11 C 20% 40% 60% 0% an ad Ja a pa N ew K n o Ze re al a a N nd or w Ire ay l B and el g D iu en m m a Fr rk an U ce ni te Sp d ai St n A ate us s tr Sw alia U ed 25-34 year olds ni te Fi en … and at tertiary level too d nl K a N ing nd et h do Lu erl m xe an m ds bo ur Sw Ice g itz lan er d la Po nd la G nd UK Position: re G ec er e m H an un y Population with tertiary education, 2006 Po gar rt y ug 45-54 year olds Sl A al us ov t ak Me ria R xi ep co C ub ze lic ch R It a e p ly • 12th in OECD for ‘older workers’ ub l T u ic • 15th in OECD for ‘younger workers’ rk ey UK COMMISSION FOR EMPLOYMENT AND SKILLS Source: OECD, Education at a Glance 2007. Table A1.3a
    • Typical UK behaviour in recession: 1990-1992 UK COMMISSION FOR EMPLOYMENT AND SKILLS • Employer training budgets were among the first cuts • Redundancy was length of service based, not skills based • Government training was ‘shotgun’, not targeted • Recession was long and deep – first ‘white collar’ recession • Companies that didn’t train were 2.5 times more likely to fail • Long term unemployment exceeded 1 million for first time • Recovery was slow – and led to severe skills shortages 12
    • Is this recession different? UK COMMISSION FOR EMPLOYMENT AND SKILLS The evidence strongly suggests: • Employer training budgets much more protected – In some sectors, 80% plus protecting/increasing training budgets • Staff retention based upon skills needed for recovery – Companies recognise that their people are their best hope • Government training more targeted on skills for recovery – We understand more about skills for employability and success Some personal predictions: • The recession will be deep but shorter than feared – 2 months of +ve growth (NIESR), house prices, optimism returning • Unemployment will not reach 3 million • Unemployment will recover more quickly • Skills shortages will be much less severe 13
    • Conclusion UK COMMISSION FOR EMPLOYMENT AND SKILLS “The skills of our people are our best guarantee of future prosperity – and the best investment an employer can make in challenging times.” UK Commission for Employment and Skills, November 2008 The UK is learning – and learning pays! 14