Delphi Pt, Isi(2003)
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Delphi Pt, Isi(2003)

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    Delphi Pt, Isi(2003) Delphi Pt, Isi(2003) Presentation Transcript

    • Delphi exercises in Portugal : cases from the fisheries sector, information society & employment and telework António Brandão Moniz (Associate Professor at FCT-UNL) [email_address]
    • Recent prospective analysis
      • Scenario exercises on long range for the National Energy Plan (Ministry of Industry and Energy), 1995-2015
      • MARHE project (ADEPE, MTS, 1998-99)
      • ET2000 project (IST-UNL, ME, 1999-2000)
      • IS-Emp (FCT-UNL, ISEG-UTL, MTS, 2000-02)
      • TeleRisk project (IET/FCT-UNL, IDICT, 2002-03)
      • WorTiS project (IET/FCT-UNL, MCES, 2001 - )
    • National Energy Plan scenarios - 1
      • DPP-Min. Plan and Territorial Management
        • hypothesis based on the scenarios proposed by the Central Planning Bureau of Holland, 1992
          • “ Global change” - A
          • “ European renaissance” - B
          • “ Global crisis”
          • “ Balanced growth” - C
        • Periods:
          • 1995/2000 - 2001/2007 - 2008/2015
    • National Energy Plan scenarios - 2
      • Scenarios % anual growth of GDP (2008/15)
      • A 2,0%
      • B 2,6%
      • C 2,9%
      • ----------- Labour productivity (GDP/employment)
      • 1995 2000 2007 2015
      • A 3316 3854 4518 5356
      • B 3316 3967 4968 6333
      • C 3316 4023 5063 6498
    • EN2000
      • Prospective study on engineering and technology in Portugal (1999-2000)
      • OEng, AEng, Assoc.Ind.Port.
      • 18 sectoral studies
      • 3 macroeconomical scenarios (2000-20) based on competitivity/proteccionism duality
      • Final conference (Lisbon, Nov. 2000)
    • Phases of ET2000
      • A - Analysis of trends, main products and knowledge demands (diagnosis)
      • B - Scenarios: products and challenges. SWOT analysis. Knowledge role.
      • C - Strategies and options. Priorities
        • Source: V. Tavares: Engenharia e Tecnologia 2000 , Lisboa, 2001
    • Technology foresight and policy
      • The foresight exercises were developed as tools for economical planning policies
      • EN2000 was an aggregation of reports on several topics of engineering trends and needs, as the main element for a technological development
      • There are until now no S&T policy foresight exercises
      • This policy as been casuistic, dependent on academic lobbyings on political structure
    • Technology and Delphi exercises
      • EC programmes on R&D helped the internacionalisation of Portuguese research activities and technological development
      • Forecasting technological changes is not seen as important for options and choices at political and economical levels
      • New Delphi exercises held after ASTPP network (reference to British, French and German cases)
      • These exercises were integrated in R&D projects and focused on specific sectors.
    • Sectoral Delphi exercises
      • Fisheries socio-economical system (MARHE): fisheries, aquaculture, shipbuilding, manufacturing, commerce
      • Information society and employment (IS-Emp)
      • Telework, labour relations and working conditions (TeleRisk)
      • The futures of automobile industry (WorTiS)
    • MARHE project: Options for a new research strategy
      • prospective approach : scenarios elaboration
      • interdisciplinary approach : co-operation of different scientific areas (biology, sociology, economy, demography, geography, robotic engineering) to elaborate integrated propositive strategies (recommendations, visions, trends)
      • participatory research procedures (regular co-operation of social scientists with unions, employers, research and education institutes, local authorities, industrialists).
    • MARHE research techniques (surveys)
      • Delphi survey : around 50 respondents representative of social actors, expertises, geographical regions;
      • Survey to youth attitudes applied to 1200 people from all main fisheries communities in Portugal;
      • quality management survey for production industries (around 40 firms);
      • R&D infrastructure survey (with semi-directive interviews)
    • Scenarios (phase 1 MARHE)
    • Phase 1 of MARHE-Delphi
      • Experts panel with 90 members
      • Questionnaire with 58 scenario themes
      • Survey on May 97 to those experts
      • 35 validated answers
      • Public presentation of results (Seminars MARHE, Out 97 and Dec 98, Peniche )
    • Phase 2 of MARHE-Delphi
      • 15 themes considered as most important (main variables) by the panel
      • Survey of 40 questionnaires (Jan 99)
      • 26 expert answers (Mar 1999, presentation and debate at 3rd Seminar Peniche)
      • Final report(Apr 1999)
    • Main scenarios (phase 2 MARHE)
      • Crisis overcome (C1)
      • - Change of paradigm (renewed system)
      • - Parcial development
      • - Limited possibilities of development
      • Crisis deepening (C2)
      • - No employment renewing
      • - No marine resources renovation
      • - No sectoral articulation of negociation forms
      • - Dis-articulation of social partners
      • - Technology transfer without endogeneisation.
    • IS-Emp Project
      • IS-Emp 1 (The influence of information society on employment)
      • IS-Emp 2 (The development of employment in the information society)
      • MTS, Ministry of Labour and Solidarity, FCT-UNL and ISEG-UTL
      • 1999 - 2001
    • IS-Emp 1
      • Experts panel with 250 members
      • Questionnaire with 76 scenario themes
      • Workshop (1999) to validate themes and methodology,
      • Survey on 2000 to those experts
      • 42 validated answers
      • book - A.B. Moniz; I. Kovács (coords) Sociedade da Informação e Emprego , Lisbon, DGEFP-MTS, 2001, 264 pp.
    • IS-Emp 2
      • Experts panel with 60 members
      • Questionnaire with _ scenario themes
      • Workshop (2000) to validate themes and methodology,
      • Survey on 2000 to those experts
      • _ validated answers
      • book - A.B. Moniz (coord) Futuros do emprego na sociedade da informação , Lisbon, DGEFP-MTS, 2002, 264 pp.
    • Invariants
      • Economical structure based on the diversity of productive specialisation
      • Low average level (at European scale) of labour qualification
      • Political promotion of Information Society
      • Stable structure of unemployment
      • Strong investiment on technology during 90’s
      • Modernisation of enterpreneurial organisaion mechanisms
      • Lack of traditino on inter-institutional co-operation (associations, state, R&D, companies)
      • Labour market regulated
    • Scenarios IS-Emp
      • Scenario 1 - Competitivity through the precarisation generates social dualisation
      • Scenario 2 - Quality through organisation and qualification: Information Society for all
      • Scenario 3 - Blocking uncertainties I (Profissional segmentation)
      • Scenario 4 - Blocking uncertainties II (Technological promotion)
    • TeleRisk
      • Telework, labour relations and occupational risks
      • IDICT-Institute for Working Conditions, Ministry of Labour and Solidarity
      • case studies in software, metal engineering and textile industries
    • Phase 1 TeleRisk project
      • state-of-the-art report (2002)
      • 24 scenario themes
      • 42 experts panel
      • event period: 2003 - 2025
      • Workshop with the panel (Jan. 2003)
      • survey application (Feb. 2003)
    • Next exercises
      • WorTiS project on “Work systems, Time and Space in Automobile Industry”
        • FCT-UNL and CEG-FLUL
        • 3 research teams (sociology, history and geography)
        • 1st Delphi round to start on March 2003
      • Proposal for a global S&T foresight