Delphi exercises in Portugal : cases from the fisheries sector, information society & employment and telework António Bran...
Recent prospective analysis <ul><li>Scenario exercises on long range for the National Energy Plan (Ministry of Industry an...
National Energy Plan scenarios - 1 <ul><li>DPP-Min. Plan and Territorial Management </li></ul><ul><ul><li>hypothesis based...
National Energy Plan scenarios - 2 <ul><li>Scenarios   % anual growth of GDP (2008/15) </li></ul><ul><li>A  2,0% </li></ul...
EN2000 <ul><li>Prospective study on engineering and technology in Portugal (1999-2000) </li></ul><ul><li>OEng, AEng, Assoc...
Phases of ET2000 <ul><li>A - Analysis of trends, main products and knowledge demands (diagnosis) </li></ul><ul><li>B - Sce...
Technology foresight and policy <ul><li>The foresight exercises were developed as tools for economical planning policies <...
Technology and Delphi exercises <ul><li>EC programmes on R&D helped the internacionalisation of Portuguese research activi...
Sectoral Delphi exercises <ul><li>Fisheries socio-economical system (MARHE): fisheries, aquaculture, shipbuilding, manufac...
MARHE project: Options for a new research strategy <ul><li>prospective approach : scenarios elaboration  </li></ul><ul><li...
MARHE research techniques  (surveys) <ul><li>Delphi survey : around 50 respondents representative of social actors, expert...
Scenarios (phase 1 MARHE)
Phase 1 of MARHE-Delphi <ul><li>Experts panel with 90 members </li></ul><ul><li>Questionnaire  with 58 scenario themes </l...
Phase 2 of MARHE-Delphi <ul><li>15 themes considered as most important (main variables) by the panel </li></ul><ul><li>Sur...
Main scenarios (phase 2 MARHE) <ul><li>Crisis overcome  (C1) </li></ul><ul><li>-  Change of paradigm (renewed system) </li...
IS-Emp Project <ul><li>IS-Emp 1 (The influence of information society on employment) </li></ul><ul><li>IS-Emp 2 (The devel...
IS-Emp 1 <ul><li>Experts panel with 250 members </li></ul><ul><li>Questionnaire  with 76 scenario themes </li></ul><ul><li...
IS-Emp 2 <ul><li>Experts panel with 60 members </li></ul><ul><li>Questionnaire  with _ scenario themes </li></ul><ul><li>W...
Invariants <ul><li>Economical structure based on the diversity of productive specialisation </li></ul><ul><li>Low average ...
Scenarios IS-Emp <ul><li>Scenario 1 - Competitivity through the precarisation generates social dualisation </li></ul><ul><...
TeleRisk <ul><li>Telework, labour relations and occupational risks </li></ul><ul><li>IDICT-Institute for Working Condition...
Phase 1 TeleRisk project <ul><li>state-of-the-art report (2002) </li></ul><ul><li>24 scenario themes </li></ul><ul><li>42 ...
Next exercises <ul><li>WorTiS project on “Work systems, Time and Space in Automobile Industry” </li></ul><ul><ul><li>FCT-U...
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Delphi Pt, Isi(2003)

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Delphi Pt, Isi(2003)

  1. 1. Delphi exercises in Portugal : cases from the fisheries sector, information society & employment and telework António Brandão Moniz (Associate Professor at FCT-UNL) [email_address]
  2. 2. Recent prospective analysis <ul><li>Scenario exercises on long range for the National Energy Plan (Ministry of Industry and Energy), 1995-2015 </li></ul><ul><li>MARHE project (ADEPE, MTS, 1998-99) </li></ul><ul><li>ET2000 project (IST-UNL, ME, 1999-2000) </li></ul><ul><li>IS-Emp (FCT-UNL, ISEG-UTL, MTS, 2000-02) </li></ul><ul><li>TeleRisk project (IET/FCT-UNL, IDICT, 2002-03) </li></ul><ul><li>WorTiS project (IET/FCT-UNL, MCES, 2001 - ) </li></ul>
  3. 3. National Energy Plan scenarios - 1 <ul><li>DPP-Min. Plan and Territorial Management </li></ul><ul><ul><li>hypothesis based on the scenarios proposed by the Central Planning Bureau of Holland, 1992 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>“ Global change” - A </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>“ European renaissance” - B </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>“ Global crisis” </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>“ Balanced growth” - C </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Periods: </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>1995/2000 - 2001/2007 - 2008/2015 </li></ul></ul></ul>
  4. 4. National Energy Plan scenarios - 2 <ul><li>Scenarios % anual growth of GDP (2008/15) </li></ul><ul><li>A 2,0% </li></ul><ul><li>B 2,6% </li></ul><ul><li>C 2,9% </li></ul><ul><li>----------- Labour productivity (GDP/employment) </li></ul><ul><li>1995 2000 2007 2015 </li></ul><ul><li>A 3316 3854 4518 5356 </li></ul><ul><li>B 3316 3967 4968 6333 </li></ul><ul><li>C 3316 4023 5063 6498 </li></ul>
  5. 5. EN2000 <ul><li>Prospective study on engineering and technology in Portugal (1999-2000) </li></ul><ul><li>OEng, AEng, Assoc.Ind.Port. </li></ul><ul><li>18 sectoral studies </li></ul><ul><li>3 macroeconomical scenarios (2000-20) based on competitivity/proteccionism duality </li></ul><ul><li>Final conference (Lisbon, Nov. 2000) </li></ul>
  6. 6. Phases of ET2000 <ul><li>A - Analysis of trends, main products and knowledge demands (diagnosis) </li></ul><ul><li>B - Scenarios: products and challenges. SWOT analysis. Knowledge role. </li></ul><ul><li>C - Strategies and options. Priorities </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Source: V. Tavares: Engenharia e Tecnologia 2000 , Lisboa, 2001 </li></ul></ul>
  7. 7. Technology foresight and policy <ul><li>The foresight exercises were developed as tools for economical planning policies </li></ul><ul><li>EN2000 was an aggregation of reports on several topics of engineering trends and needs, as the main element for a technological development </li></ul><ul><li>There are until now no S&T policy foresight exercises </li></ul><ul><li>This policy as been casuistic, dependent on academic lobbyings on political structure </li></ul>
  8. 8. Technology and Delphi exercises <ul><li>EC programmes on R&D helped the internacionalisation of Portuguese research activities and technological development </li></ul><ul><li>Forecasting technological changes is not seen as important for options and choices at political and economical levels </li></ul><ul><li>New Delphi exercises held after ASTPP network (reference to British, French and German cases) </li></ul><ul><li>These exercises were integrated in R&D projects and focused on specific sectors. </li></ul>
  9. 9. Sectoral Delphi exercises <ul><li>Fisheries socio-economical system (MARHE): fisheries, aquaculture, shipbuilding, manufacturing, commerce </li></ul><ul><li>Information society and employment (IS-Emp) </li></ul><ul><li>Telework, labour relations and working conditions (TeleRisk) </li></ul><ul><li>The futures of automobile industry (WorTiS) </li></ul>
  10. 10. MARHE project: Options for a new research strategy <ul><li>prospective approach : scenarios elaboration </li></ul><ul><li>interdisciplinary approach : co-operation of different scientific areas (biology, sociology, economy, demography, geography, robotic engineering) to elaborate integrated propositive strategies (recommendations, visions, trends) </li></ul><ul><li>participatory research procedures (regular co-operation of social scientists with unions, employers, research and education institutes, local authorities, industrialists). </li></ul>
  11. 11. MARHE research techniques (surveys) <ul><li>Delphi survey : around 50 respondents representative of social actors, expertises, geographical regions; </li></ul><ul><li>Survey to youth attitudes applied to 1200 people from all main fisheries communities in Portugal; </li></ul><ul><li>quality management survey for production industries (around 40 firms); </li></ul><ul><li>R&D infrastructure survey (with semi-directive interviews) </li></ul>
  12. 12. Scenarios (phase 1 MARHE)
  13. 13. Phase 1 of MARHE-Delphi <ul><li>Experts panel with 90 members </li></ul><ul><li>Questionnaire with 58 scenario themes </li></ul><ul><li>Survey on May 97 to those experts </li></ul><ul><li>35 validated answers </li></ul><ul><li>Public presentation of results (Seminars MARHE, Out 97 and Dec 98, Peniche ) </li></ul>
  14. 14. Phase 2 of MARHE-Delphi <ul><li>15 themes considered as most important (main variables) by the panel </li></ul><ul><li>Survey of 40 questionnaires (Jan 99) </li></ul><ul><li>26 expert answers (Mar 1999, presentation and debate at 3rd Seminar Peniche) </li></ul><ul><li>Final report(Apr 1999) </li></ul>
  15. 15. Main scenarios (phase 2 MARHE) <ul><li>Crisis overcome (C1) </li></ul><ul><li>- Change of paradigm (renewed system) </li></ul><ul><li>- Parcial development </li></ul><ul><li>- Limited possibilities of development </li></ul><ul><li>Crisis deepening (C2) </li></ul><ul><li>- No employment renewing </li></ul><ul><li>- No marine resources renovation </li></ul><ul><li>- No sectoral articulation of negociation forms </li></ul><ul><li>- Dis-articulation of social partners </li></ul><ul><li>- Technology transfer without endogeneisation. </li></ul>
  16. 16. IS-Emp Project <ul><li>IS-Emp 1 (The influence of information society on employment) </li></ul><ul><li>IS-Emp 2 (The development of employment in the information society) </li></ul><ul><li>MTS, Ministry of Labour and Solidarity, FCT-UNL and ISEG-UTL </li></ul><ul><li>1999 - 2001 </li></ul>
  17. 17. IS-Emp 1 <ul><li>Experts panel with 250 members </li></ul><ul><li>Questionnaire with 76 scenario themes </li></ul><ul><li>Workshop (1999) to validate themes and methodology, </li></ul><ul><li>Survey on 2000 to those experts </li></ul><ul><li>42 validated answers </li></ul><ul><li>book - A.B. Moniz; I. Kovács (coords) Sociedade da Informação e Emprego , Lisbon, DGEFP-MTS, 2001, 264 pp. </li></ul>
  18. 18. IS-Emp 2 <ul><li>Experts panel with 60 members </li></ul><ul><li>Questionnaire with _ scenario themes </li></ul><ul><li>Workshop (2000) to validate themes and methodology, </li></ul><ul><li>Survey on 2000 to those experts </li></ul><ul><li>_ validated answers </li></ul><ul><li>book - A.B. Moniz (coord) Futuros do emprego na sociedade da informação , Lisbon, DGEFP-MTS, 2002, 264 pp. </li></ul>
  19. 19. Invariants <ul><li>Economical structure based on the diversity of productive specialisation </li></ul><ul><li>Low average level (at European scale) of labour qualification </li></ul><ul><li>Political promotion of Information Society </li></ul><ul><li>Stable structure of unemployment </li></ul><ul><li>Strong investiment on technology during 90’s </li></ul><ul><li>Modernisation of enterpreneurial organisaion mechanisms </li></ul><ul><li>Lack of traditino on inter-institutional co-operation (associations, state, R&D, companies) </li></ul><ul><li>Labour market regulated </li></ul>
  20. 20. Scenarios IS-Emp <ul><li>Scenario 1 - Competitivity through the precarisation generates social dualisation </li></ul><ul><li>Scenario 2 - Quality through organisation and qualification: Information Society for all </li></ul><ul><li>Scenario 3 - Blocking uncertainties I (Profissional segmentation) </li></ul><ul><li>Scenario 4 - Blocking uncertainties II (Technological promotion) </li></ul>
  21. 21. TeleRisk <ul><li>Telework, labour relations and occupational risks </li></ul><ul><li>IDICT-Institute for Working Conditions, Ministry of Labour and Solidarity </li></ul><ul><li>case studies in software, metal engineering and textile industries </li></ul>
  22. 22. Phase 1 TeleRisk project <ul><li>state-of-the-art report (2002) </li></ul><ul><li>24 scenario themes </li></ul><ul><li>42 experts panel </li></ul><ul><li>event period: 2003 - 2025 </li></ul><ul><li>Workshop with the panel (Jan. 2003) </li></ul><ul><li>survey application (Feb. 2003) </li></ul>
  23. 23. Next exercises <ul><li>WorTiS project on “Work systems, Time and Space in Automobile Industry” </li></ul><ul><ul><li>FCT-UNL and CEG-FLUL </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>3 research teams (sociology, history and geography) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>1st Delphi round to start on March 2003 </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Proposal for a global S&T foresight </li></ul>

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