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IBDP Economics. Lecture slides for Macroeconomics

IBDP Economics. Lecture slides for Macroeconomics

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  • Resource: International Labor Organization
  • Resource: International Labor Organization
  • Chinese migration and East European migration – 300 million people!Could unemployment lead to terrorism? Palestine – 45% unemployed due to Israeli blockades.
  • Why is the Total Labor Force (TLF) positively sloped?Real Wage and Classical Unemployment.
  • A lot of market-oriented economists feel that regulation reduces “labor market flexibility”
  • Discretionary – deliberate change in the policyAutomatic – increases in transfer payments may increase G as deficit budget exists.
  • Transcript

    • 1. ABHISHEK MAITY2013MACROECONOMICSAbhishek Maity, KIS, 20121
    • 2.  Chapter 1: Introduction to Macroeconomics Chapter 2: Aggregate Demand Chapter 3: Aggregate Supply Chapter 4: Macroeconomic Equilibrium Chapter 5: Unemployment Chapter 6: Inflation Chapter 7: Economic Growth Chapter 8: Equitable Distribution of IncomeAbhishek Maity, KIS, 20122
    • 3. ABHISHEK MAITYSEMESTER 2, 2013UNEMPLOYMENTAbhishek Maity, KIS, 20123
    • 4.  Low Unemployment Low inflation or Price Stability Stable economic growth Equitable distribution of income TOK – Is there an order of priority for these objectives? Are such acriteria external to economic theory, that is normative?Abhishek Maity, KIS, 20124
    • 5. Define unemployment:“Unemployment is the condition of someone of workingage who is able and willing to work, actively seekingemployment, but unable to work.”How unemployment rate is calculated:UR = # of unemployed/labor force * 100Practice question:In country X there are 60 million people, 70% areavailable for work, while 39 million are currentlyemployed.Calculate the UR in X.Abhishek Maity, KIS, 20125
    • 6.  Geographical disparities Age disparities Ethnic differences Gender disparitiesAbhishek Maity, KIS, 20126
    • 7. Recent college or school graduate looking for employmentImmigrantsPeople who have lost their jobsPeople who have resignedPeople trying to return to workMedical leaveStay at home parentsAbhishek Maity, KIS, 20127
    • 8. People who lost their jobs and are seeking new onesEmigrantsRetireesThe deceasedPeople returning to higher educationMedical leavePeople who have simply given up – “Hiddenunemployment”Abhishek Maity, KIS, 20128
    • 9. Underemployment vs. UnemploymentPart-time workersOver qualified workersPeople who have “given up”This decreases the Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR)Abhishek Maity, KIS, 20129
    • 10. It is the ratio of the number of people in the labor force tothe entire working age population in the economy.LFPR has been increasing in most countries in recent years.Impact on the PPCWhat can the government do to promote LFPR?Reduce benefitsAccess to education and job trainingHelp minority groupsOther policies?Abhishek Maity, KIS, 201210
    • 11. Changes in the LFPR can distort the unemployment figures.“Hidden unemployment”Abhishek Maity, KIS, 201211
    • 12.  Individual : Decreased household income and purchasing power Increased levels of psychological and physical illness, stress, and depression Social: Downward pressure on wages of the employed Increased poverty and crime Transformation of traditional societies Economic: Lower AD Under-utilization of economy’s resources Brain drain Protectionism and isolationism policies Increased budge deficitsAbhishek Maity, KIS, 201212
    • 13. Abhishek Maity, KIS, 201213
    • 14. Remove minimum wagesAbolish trade unionsFlaws of solutions?Harm poor workersHard to get rid of unionsAbhishek Maity, KIS, 201214
    • 15. Frictional and SeasonalStructuralCyclical (Demand deficient)Abhishek Maity, KIS, 201215
    • 16. Frictional:Short – three months or lessUsually between jobs and voluntaryProspect for new employment is generally positive.Solutions – reduce unemployment benefitsSeasonal:Employment on requirementAlso a kind of voluntary unemploymentMight have off-setting seasonal employmentSolutions – information, reduce benefits, encouragementAbhishek Maity, KIS, 201216
    • 17. Structural:Making workers redundantChange in preferencesTransition in economic natureForeign laborTechnologyIt is a natural outcome of the evolution of an economy“Creative destruction” ~ Joseph SchumpterInnovation and progress destroys old methodsLonger in term than frictional or seasonal unemploymentSolutions? – Retraining, education, awareness campaignsAbhishek Maity, KIS, 201217
    • 18. The natural rate of unemployment (NRU) comprises:SeasonalFrictionalStructuralAbhishek Maity, KIS, 201218
    • 19. Moves with the machinations of the business cycle.Caused by a fall in ADDemand for labor falls pushing down wages and pricesGraphical interpretation.Abhishek Maity, KIS, 201219
    • 20. In 2009 in the US, there were 13 million people who losttheir jobs, however, there were 3 million job vacanciesthat opened up that could not easily be filled. Why do youthink this was the case? What could be the potential longterm outcome of this scenario?Structural unemployment – mismatch of jobsFall in housing prices reduce mobility of laborEven in recovery there could be continued mismatchWage wars may lead to inflationUnemployment benefits might increaseAbhishek Maity, KIS, 201220
    • 21. Abhishek Maity, KIS, 201221Type ofUnemploymentDescription Causes Possible SolutionsFrictionalPeople who are in betweenjobs or looking for their firstjob. Generally very shortterm. Part of NRUYoung workers enteringthe market. Workerswho voluntarily quit for abetter jobReduce unemploymentbenefits. Improve informationsymmetry between supply anddemand of labor.SeasonalStructuralCyclical (Demand-Deficient)Natural (NRU)
    • 22. Goal is occupational flexibilityLong term solution – education.Retraining programsSubsidies to companies with training for their workers.Tax breaks to companies who hire.Relocation tax credit to increase labor mobility.Support of apprenticeship programs.PROBLEMS?High opportunity cost.Only effective in the long run.Abhishek Maity, KIS, 201222
    • 23. Reduce unemployment benefits.Reduce regulations (deregulate) for hiring and firing.PROBLEMS?Lower benefits increases inequity and fairness.Loss in guarantees of working conditions.Abhishek Maity, KIS, 201223
    • 24. Demand-Side Policies: Shifts AD (reduce deflationary gap)Expansionary fiscal policy – lower taxes and spendingLooser monetary policy – increasing money supply orlowering interest ratesPROBLEMS?Opportunity cost and no guarantee of success if CC is low.Time lagInflation – especially at full-employment levelsNOTE:Discretionary Fiscal Policy verses Automatic StabilizersAbhishek Maity, KIS, 201224
    • 25. Supply-Side Policies: Shifts LRASUseful for reducing natural rate of unemployment.Quality of labor force and flexibility and adaptability.PROBLEMS?Opportunity cost.Large time lagNOTE:Ideally, the best course of action is a mix of supply anddemand side policies.Abhishek Maity, KIS, 201225
    • 26. How does the government get money for a budget deficit?Selling government or treasury bonds/billsIt is a form of savingsThis increases demand for savings or real loanable funds inthe economy.The consequence of this is called “crowding out”.[Diagram] – loanable funds verses InvestmentsInterest rates ↑ causing Investments ↓The extent of “Crowding Out” is debatable – Keynesians sayit won’t occur at below full employment. Neo Classicalbelieve it is a significant problem.Abhishek Maity, KIS, 201226
    • 27. Discuss the economic consequences of unemployment.Discuss the social and personal consequences ofunemployment.With the help of a diagram, explain two possible causes ofstructural unemployment.Explain the difficulty in obtaining accurate unemploymentrate data.Evaluate the policies that are available to a governmentthat wishes to reduce its country’s unemployment.Using diagrams and examples distinguish between thedifferent types of unemployment.Explain using relevant diagrams “crowding out” theory.Abhishek Maity, KIS, 201227
    • 28. ABHISHEK MAITYSEMESTER 2, 2013INFLATIONAbhishek Maity, KIS, 201228
    • 29. “Inflation is a sustained increase of the average level ofprices. The inflation rate is the percentage by which theprice index has risen between two periods.”Example:If a bottle of Coke costs Rs. 10 in 2009, and there is 10.9%inflation in 2009, how much will the bottle cost in 2010?The opposite of inflation is “deflation”NOTE: “Disinflation” –the rate of inflation is decreasing.Abhishek Maity, KIS, 201229
    • 30. The average price level is measured through a “priceindex”.Weighted average price of goods and services a typicalconsumer faces.It is called the Consumer Price Index (CPI)Some year is chosen as a “base” or “reference” year forthis basket of goods and services and the cost is indexed.Price index of base year will always be 100.By creating an index we get rid of units to makecomparisons more easily.Abhishek Maity, KIS, 201230
    • 31. Core or Fundamental InflationFood and energy prices can fluctuate based on a variety ofreasons, so items that are typically unrelated to thefundamentals of the economy are isolated, permitting amore accurate interpretation of the workings of aneconomy.Abhishek Maity, KIS, 201231
    • 32. Abhishek Maity, KIS, 201232
    • 33. Calculating load weighted averages and CPI from data.[Data Response Questions]Abhishek Maity, KIS, 201233
    • 34.  What is a “typical” person? Errors in data collection. Patterns of consumption differ from different demographics so pricesfaced by them will differ. Weights are usually fixed – so the price of one particular goodchanging can have a skewing effect on CPI even if people substitute.Substitution Bias New goods are not taken into account. New Product Bias Improvement in quality of goods are not accounted for. Quality Bias. Different countries have different ways of measuring inflation. Sometimes prices may fluctuate resulting in “unclean” data. CPI does not take into consideration intermediate goods needed bymanufacturers.Abhishek Maity, KIS, 201234
    • 35. An alternative price index to the CPI.PPI includes prices that producer’s receive for goods (notservices), at all stages of production process, includingsemi finished and intermediate goods and raw materials.Changes in PPI are considered as “leading indicators” offuture consumer inflation rates because PPI picks up pricechanges that a typical consumer will face before thosechanges actually materialize.Abhishek Maity, KIS, 201235
    • 36. Loss of purchasing power in the event of sticky wages.Effect on savingsValue of savings might decrease if savings interest rate islower than the inflation rateEffects on interest rates – increases with inflationDecrease in international competitivenessUncertainty – consumer and business confidencedecreasesLabor unrestAbhishek Maity, KIS, 201236
    • 37. There is “good” deflation and “bad” deflationGOOD:Supply side increases – better productivity – LRASincrease will mean prices decrease and real outputincreases.BAD:Demand side decrease – if AD decreases, real outputdecreases and prices decrease.Abhishek Maity, KIS, 201237
    • 38. … of “bad” deflationUnemployment increasesBusiness profits decrease – investments reduceCost to debtors increase.Abhishek Maity, KIS, 201238
    • 39. Demand Pull InflationWhen aggregate demand increases[DIAGRAM]Cost Push InflationWhen the cost of production increases causing the SRASto shift left[DIAGRAM]Abhishek Maity, KIS, 201239
    • 40. Combination of Demand-Pull and Cost-Push Inflation.Known as the Inflationary Spiral.AD ↑  (if economy is near full employment) thenInflation ↑  cost of production ↑ and SRAS moves left.Higher wages can lead to an “illusion” of more moneycausing AD ↑ again…[DIAGRAM]Abhishek Maity, KIS, 201240
    • 41. Milton Friedman and the MonetaristsLoose Monetary Policy causes the AD ↑ causing a form ofDemand Pull inflation.[DIGRAM]Abhishek Maity, KIS, 201241
    • 42. Yes, it gives the Central Banks maneuverability tocounteract “liquidity traps”.There are other positives like the Mudell-Tobin effect ofinvestments.Abhishek Maity, KIS, 201242
    • 43. Contractionary Policies for Demand Pull Inflation:MonetaryFiscalSupply-Side Policies for Cost Push Inflation:Trying to increase the LRASWhat kind of inflation is it, anyway?We don’t usually know for sureCombination of both types of policiesGovernments are generally short-sighted – and thepublic is generally gullible, uneducated and non-thinking.Abhishek Maity, KIS, 201243
    • 44. The Spanish Price Revolution – 16th to 17th CenturyThe Chinese Perfumed Paper Money Problem – 11thCenturyShaving coins in the Medieval times in Europe.Germany in the Second World WarArgentinaZimbabweAbhishek Maity, KIS, 201244
    • 45. Named after William PhillipsWork on unemployment in the 50s at LSEMONIAC computer.The relationship between rate of inflation or rate ofchange in real wages and unemployment.Inflation and Unemployment are inversely related.Abhishek Maity, KIS, 201245
    • 46. The original Phillips Curve was “Rate of Change of Wages”against “Unemployment”At low unemployment levels, wages will be higher as thereis competition for laborAt high unemployment, people are willing to work for less.Inflation replaced “rate of change of wages” as wages isthe primary cost in the firm – wages feed the change inprice levels.Abhishek Maity, KIS, 201246
    • 47. Abhishek Maity, KIS, 201247
    • 48. Data after the 1970s showed that Inflation andUnemployment may both simultaneously rise!StagflationAlso using supply-side economics, there can be deflationand decrease in unemployment as wellCaused the Phillips Curve to be rejected.Abhishek Maity, KIS, 201248
    • 49. Milton Friedman and The Monetarists adapted the PhillipsCurve to the Neo Classical LRAS.A change from the SRPC to the LRPC.[DIAGRAM]LRPC shows the natural rate of unemployment at a giveninflation rate.Supply-side policies can reduce the LRPC.Natural Rate of Unemployment (NRU) is very difficult tocalculate.Abhishek Maity, KIS, 201249
    • 50. Explain the main consequences of inflation.Evaluate the methods that might be used to reduceinflation.Using an appropriate diagram, explain why there might bea trade-off between unemployment and inflation in theshort run.Evaluate the extent to which demand-side policies areeffective in reducing inflation.With the help of a diagram explain the concept ofInflationary Spiral.Data Response Questions (DRQ)Abhishek Maity, KIS, 201250
    • 51. ABHISHEK MAITYSEMESTER 2, 2013ECONOMICGROWTHAbhishek Maity, KIS, 201251
    • 52. Difference between Real and Nominal GDPReal GDP growth rate and Real GDPEven if GDP growth rate is decreasing, as long as it ispositive, the economy is growing.Negative real GDP growth rate in two consecutivequarters means recession.Growth rate of developed versus developing economies.Deflationary gap and PPC. [DIAGRAM]Growth and PPC [DIAGRAM]Abhishek Maity, KIS, 201252
    • 53. Positive Consequences:Non-inflationary growth [DIAGRAM]Quality of lifeHigher tax revenue for the governmentRepayment of debtsLow unemploymentNegative Consequences?InflationStress and deterioration in family lifeEnvironmental damage - ChinaAbhishek Maity, KIS, 201253
    • 54. Discuss the possible consequences of economic growth.Using an appropriate diagram, explain how economicgrowth may bring about an increase in potential output.Using an appropriate diagram, explain how investmentmay result in economic growth.Abhishek Maity, KIS, 201254
    • 56. “Fairness” of income and wealth in the economy. It is notequality.The goal is to bridge the gap between the rich and thepoor.Presently, globally, the top 300 wealthy own the samewealth as the bottom 3 billion.And that is just for declared wealth!Abhishek Maity, KIS, 201256
    • 57. They may be born into low income households.They may have received poor, or no education.They may suffer from poor nutrition and healthcare.They may have found it necessary to find work beforecompleting their education.Abhishek Maity, KIS, 201257
    • 58. Low living standardsLack of access to sufficient health careLow levels of educationPoor quality of human capital – resulting in long termconsequences.Societal unrest!Abhishek Maity, KIS, 201258
    • 59. Unequal incomes lead to people working harder to earnmore money.If all kinds of jobs and transfer payments equated then theeconomy would collapse as no one would have anincentive to work harder.Abhishek Maity, KIS, 201259
    • 60. In the turn of the 20th Century Max Lorenz came up withstudying income inequalities.Plot of cumulative percentage of total income andcumulative percentage of total population.A good representation of understanding not just incomeinequalities but also which deciles have the largestdiscrepancies.[DIAGRAM]Please note that the Lorenz curve only takes into accountpresent income, not wealth.Abhishek Maity, KIS, 201260
    • 61. Abhishek Maity, KIS, 201261
    • 62. Please be wary that even country’s with high HDI can havea high Gini Index.There is no strict correlation between level ofdevelopment in a country and income equality.For example:US (HDI Rank 13) – 40.8 Gini IndexEthiopia (HDI Rank 171) – 29.8 Gini IndexIncome equality is not necessary to raise the standard ofliving.Abhishek Maity, KIS, 201262
    • 63. Please be wary that even country’s with high HDI can havea high Gini Index.There is no strict correlation between level ofdevelopment in a country and income equality.For example:US (HDI Rank 13) – 40.8 Gini IndexEthiopia (HDI Rank 171) – 29.8 Gini IndexIncome equality is not necessary to raise the standard ofliving.Abhishek Maity, KIS, 201263
    • 64. Taxation – The Laffer CurveDirect – income taxIndirect – VAT, sales taxProgressive (tax slabs/brackets)Regressive – might worsen income inequalityProportionalTransfer PaymentsGovernment Spending for Essential Goods and ServicesAbhishek Maity, KIS, 201264
    • 65. Consider the following tax brackets and calculate theaverage tax rate for:Person 1 (low income) - $15,000Person 2 (middle income) - $38,000Person 3 (high income) - $90,000Abhishek Maity, KIS, 201265Income ($) %0 - 5,000 05,001 - 20,000 2020,001 - 40,000 4040,000+ 50
    • 66. Abhishek Maity, KIS, 201266
    • 67. As a supply side policy to incentivize higher earnings, risk,entrepreneurship.To reduce the complexity of progressive systems.Might actually help increase tax revenue.Abhishek Maity, KIS, 201267
    • 68. It is a controversial idea – redistributing income.What constitutes a “reasonable condition”?Consider the poverty line issue.Neo Classical Economists argue against any form ofgovernment interference stating that governmentintervention leads to inefficiencies in the system.Abhishek Maity, KIS, 201268
    • 69. Corporate paid insurance and benefits might lead to lowerunemployment.High taxes might result in lower entrepreneurial activities.Movement of money to “tax havens”Lower taxes help economic growth.Free market theorists argue that rather than redistributionof income, the government should promote long runactions:Ensure rightsBetter judicial systemPromote competitionBetter infrastructureAbhishek Maity, KIS, 201269
    • 70.  Person A (low income) – earns $20,000 per year and spends$14,000 on goods and services. Person B (middle income) – earns $45,000 per year and spends$30,000 on consumer items. Person C (high income) – earns $120,000 per year and spends$80,000 on stuff. Calculate each of their average rate of total tax (direct +indirect) based on the data.Abhishek Maity, KIS, 201270Income ($) %10,001 - 30,000 2030,001 - 50,000 4050,000+ 50Sales Tax 20
    • 71. Absolute poverty is the minimum income necessary tosatisfy basic needs.The 2008 World Bank Global Poverty Level is set at $1.25(PPP) per day.Relative poverty is how much a household’s income fallsbelow the national average.Poverty is a vicious cycle.Abhishek Maity, KIS, 201271
    • 72. It might help accelerate growth:Access to resources – education, healthcareLabor force improves as a resultAD will increase as the MPC for poor people is higher.Social tensions will be lower – reduces uncertainty and riskfor investors.Abhishek Maity, KIS, 201272
    • 73. Transfer paymentsSocial health insurancePublic educationImproving the quality and access to education andhealthcare service is the most effective route to equity.Access to better roads, infrastructure, and sanitation.A healthier population with better education, training andskills will increase labor productivity.A better judicial system and lower corruptions are alsoimportant.Abhishek Maity, KIS, 201273
    • 75. The Government BudgetSources of RevenueTaxationTypes of ExpendituresCurrent – Day to day expensesCapital – public investment spendingRedistribution policiesAbhishek Maity, KIS, 201275
    • 76. G > T – Budget deficit – National debt growsG < T – Budget surplus – National debt shrinksG = T – Balanced budget – National debt remains sameNational/Public debt vs. External DebtAbhishek Maity, KIS, 201276
    • 77. Increase government spending (G)Reduce taxesCauses an increase in aggregate demandKeynesian vs. Neo Classical impact of increasing ADDeficit – Budget and TradeHigh inflationCrowding outAbhishek Maity, KIS, 201277
    • 78. Decrease government spending (G)Increase taxesCauses a decrease in aggregate demandKeynesian vs. Neo Classical impact of decreasing ADSlow down in growth or even a recessionIncreased unemploymentAbhishek Maity, KIS, 201278
    • 79. Abhishek Maity, KIS, 201279
    • 80. Crowding Out EffectAutomatic StabilizersMitigating a downturn [DIAGRAM]Cooling off an over-heating economy [DIAGRAM]Abhishek Maity, KIS, 201280
    • 81. Spending on transfer payments and current spending isunlikely to have an impact on LRAS.Capital spending increases LRASConsider positive externalities.Lower tax rate might unleash more work and investmentsbut tax revenue is also important.Prudent fiscal policy might be more useful at economicbooms or at full employment levels.Abhishek Maity, KIS, 201281
    • 82. Relationship betweentax rates andgovernment revenue.“Arithmetic effect” vs.“Economic effect”It need not be singlepeak though, norperfectly symmetrical.Abhishek Maity, KIS, 201282
    • 83. Fiscal policy has a direct impact on the AD.A decrease in taxes might help supply side effects.Monetary policy might be ineffective in a deep recession.Unemployment benefits and progressive taxes work asautomatic stabilizers.Positive externality of capital spending.Maybe even green technologies.If the multiplier is greater than one, increase ingovernment spending can be very powerful.Abhishek Maity, KIS, 201283
    • 84. There is a time lagDetection lagAdministrative lagExecution or impact lagLarge deficit spending may increase national debtInflationary pressures from fiscal spendingCrowding out private investments“Expansionary Bias”Widening trade deficitContractionary fiscal policy is hard to implement.It is not easily reversible!Some argue against the multiplier effect as well.Abhishek Maity, KIS, 201284
    • 85. It is a link – a proxy, and a store of value.The Banking System: “the two-tier system”The Central BankCommercial BanksAbhishek Maity, KIS, 201285
    • 86. Role of the Central Bank?Banker to the government and other commercial banksSole note-issuing authority.Issues and redeems government bondsManages government banking accountMonetary policy to manage inflation and growthExchange rate policy management“Credit Crunch” and “Bailouts” – institute of last resortsRegulates and supervises commercial banks and sets cashreserve ratio.Abhishek Maity, KIS, 201286
    • 87. These are financial intermediariesBrings borrowers and lenders togetherThey are profit oriented – depends on the “spread”Charge of different rates, based on circumstancesCash reserve ratio – what can be lent out is much morethan the actual cash deposits.Abhishek Maity, KIS, 201287
    • 88. Demand for money refers to the want for liquidityOpportunity cost of holding cashLiquidity Preference (Keynes):Transactions motive: Need money to buy goods andservicesPrecautionary motive: To meet unexpected expenses.Speculative motive: This demand is inversely proportionalto the interest rates.Abhishek Maity, KIS, 201288
    • 89. Money Demand for various levels of income.[DIAGRAM]Note: if interest rates are too low, money demandbecomes perfectly elastic.Abhishek Maity, KIS, 201289
    • 90. Exogenous – not affected by AD[DIAGRAM]Includes all cash and coins and current accounts – available for transactions.Central Bank can change money supply using the followingtools:Change cash reserve ratioDiscount rateOpen market operations – bond transactions –“quantitative easing”Abhishek Maity, KIS, 201290
    • 91. [Money Supply and Money Demand Diagram]Remember MS is perfectly inelasticInterest rate is the MS and MD equilibriumAbhishek Maity, KIS, 201291
    • 92. Demand Side Policy – increase ADEasy or Loose Monetary Policy – expansionaryReasons?Tight Monetary Policy – contractionaryReasons?Abhishek Maity, KIS, 201292
    • 93. It is an art and a scienceAdvantages:FlexibleSize and Speed can varyReversibleAbhishek Maity, KIS, 201293
    • 94. Disadvantages:Might fail – liquidity trapConsumption depends on many things and not justinterest ratesTime lagsIneffective in fixed exchange rate systems [more later]Effectiveness is reduced by increased borrowable marketsAbhishek Maity, KIS, 201294