Re-inventing Forms
Vinod Khosla
Sept, 2005

Communications: 1975 vs. 2005
1975 2005
Mobile VoIP IM
Pace of innovation across
communication devices,
services and networks
continues to increase
Landline Phone
Email Blogs
Source: Morgan Stanley

Trends & Strategy
• Mobile: “the device that used to be a phone”
• Open Source (everything)
• IP-Cast: MP3, Podcast, TV/IPTV…
• Media mangle: Games, TV/Video, Mobile, Print
• Collaborative Filtering / Collaboration
• Peer to Peer
• Personalization
• RSS
• Tags
• Network Effects
• Advertising
• Education Possibilities & Probabilities
• Major new Geographies: India & China

Technovolution
• Bittorrent
• Wimax
• VOIP
• Real Broadband
• Personalization
• Collaborative Filtering
• Peer to Peer
• Remote Access

Mobile Content
• Mobile Audio/Video = “Online Search”
• $19B & growing! (Jamba $600m; Games $2.5b; Tones $3b)
• Search: jumptap , medio , mooobl, mona …
• MTV Mobile $$ > MTV Pay TV $$?
• Phone or wallet? (3MM+ NTT DoCoMo wallet phone users )
• More emails sent in Japan via mobile phone than PC
• Mobile Advertising/Media:
• $200m in Japan already; growing worldwide
• Names: mforma for content; m-qube $70m in mobile media/services

IP-Cast
• Video Downloads
• Clips
• Shows
• Movies
• …
• …real mass authored content?
• Lock-in?
• Brand Building?

Control Points
• Home Media Center
• Set-top
• DVR
• Pipe
• Billing
• …..??

Open Source
• Software
• Books
• TV
• Music
• IP: Design, Technology, T-Shirts…
• Reviews (for the “long tail”)
• …

Collaboration & “Wisdom of Crowds”
• Search
• Music & Movies: Yahoo
• Reviews: Amazon; IMDB, Ebay
• Design: AFFINOVA
• T-shirts: Threadless
• Maps: Distributed updates
• Valuation & Assesment: Hedgestreet, Intrade
• Traffic?

Peer to Peer
• Blogs: Livejournal, Myspace, Facebook
• Traditional Media
• Podcast
• TV
• MP3
• Bittorrent
• Finance: Zopa

Personalization
• Search
• Personalized TV
• Advertising
• Google News
• …..Real personalization????

Advertising
• Advertising as Information
• Measurability & ROI in Advertising
• New Models & Media

New Models
• Advergames
• Syndicated podcasting
• VOIP/Mobile Advertising
• Opt-in Infomercials (Pull)
•
• …. ???

Search as a Platform
• Your web
• Your desktop
• Your keys
• Local Search
• Mobile Search
• Your personal/ professional network

New Media User Habits
• Clickable everything (use media like web-page; pop-up videos)
• Multi-ported: tv+music+webportal+homework+communications
• Instant messaging: always on friendships
• Remix generation: competitive re-authorship
• Authorship IS Consumption
• Blogs are NEWS
….but the human needs/wants remain the same

Virtual Worlding: “new rite of passage”
• The new economy of virtual online assets
• Everquest farming: expert players earn in-game treasure
at a rate of $3/hour
• $200m business
• The new economy of communities
• The new economy of online games

Evolutions: Other
• Brand dis-intermediation
• Broadcast vs Personalcast (IPcast)
• Distribution (OS, Set Top, Pipe…)
• Media brands in the interactive world?
• Remote Access: Tutors; PC Support,…

Good & Bad Business Models
• VOIP vs Voice (business model)
• Monster vs. SimplyHired (cost structure)
• Network TV vs. IPTV (consumer choice)
• Ebay vs Classifieds (network effects)
…consumer choice, cost structure, business model

Why Might they Work?
• KarmaLoop • Google Search
• Threadless • Amazon Market
• Intrader • Skype VOIP?
• Hedgestreet • Mobile Search
• Innocentive • Local Search/promo

Forecasting
• Cellphone TV vs. “new format” video
• Above 40/Under 40
• Trial & Error
• Fast following

Trends to Watch
• Mobility, mobility, mobility
• Smart mobs, hive minds
• Collaborative action: reviews, ratings, editing, voting,
• Emergent Branding
• Mass Authoring: Blogs, Music, Video,…
• Peer to peer: podcasting, videocasting
• Google changes education?
• Reputation systems (Bloggers, sellers, products…)
• Distributed education, better colleges
• Remote medicine
• RSS & Syndication

Products
• Local Search
• Mobile Search
• Channel-less TV & “mixed media”
• Payments
• Personal proxy
• Mobile “PC++” ; portable “desktop”
• Exploding “content” & authors
• Collaboration “products”
• “Trust” products: Review & Ratings
• Massively multiplayer games / virtual “game” assets
• Personalization & “history” products
• Open Source textbooks a la Wikkipedia
• Multi-way media & books
• Peer learning, Remote tutoring,….
• Browser 2.0 (Evolution or revolution?)

Execution: Internet (non) Strategy
• Strategy vs. Experiments
• Digital Home vs. Digital products
• Re-invent Needs
• Reinforce Success
• Niches vs. Majors
• Network Effects
• Stories: Kodak, Apple, Google, ITC

Comments?
Vinod Khosla
vkhosla@kpcb.com

IHT Aug 23, 2005
• Google to raise $4b
• South Korea: broadband in 67% of homes
• Wild Animal trade at $6B
• Amazon to sell digital short stories
• Intrade
• Hedgestreet