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the device that

used to be your :  ' xv 

E vinod khosla,  vk@khos| aventures. com
what you know. ..

what should we be asking?
transport
' dead or alive?
. It «.  . .  .
‘r1‘v, "v" kf. ".| ’lF‘ n, s,l. ;" 1| ‘   ‘pf Hm‘

I
H
Q ~ ~ -
" 1:
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‘ I
' “'4' -. I I_I_H IAIAflA...
$1 trillion spent on telecom
transport last year

. ..so it's not quite dead,  yet

- mobile transport growing 15% in 2007...
what’s next in transport: 

working with incumbent carriers: 
- do you have a choice? 
- if so,  when do you want to be ca...
Mo| P: Mobile over IP

0

truphone

 

different approaches:  existing voice networks or all IP?
what's next in trans ort: 

   

* do you want a desk phone and a cell phone? 
(many younger people have already made the ...
So| P: Services over IP

a sample service for small businesses: 

-professional image + more productivity =  revenue
-one ...
what's next in trans ort: 

   

a- what if transport revenue didn’t “die” but GREW? 

~ . ..and was paid for by businesse...
business-sponsored calling

~ Has this happened before?  Sure. 
«- Toll Free /  800 business
* Oh,  and Google

. ' ‘JR

....
speaking of advertising
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o
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. .
what’s next in advertising: 

~ broadcast TV is free
«- tv over IP is expensive (iTunes) or illegal (BitTorrent)
* sounds ...
ad-supported tv — with ip

' travelocity 0' travclocity ' U3"3'0Clty
LOS ANGELES BISMARCK ORL‘/ ?NDO
f LAJS VEGAS ' LAS VE...
3 Forsonailx;  u N ad.  0’,  Salad u ‘N uhadulc.  . launch yo crnpciqn. 
Croat JR :1 -M "r it! ‘ I.  you’ Mn.  ‘ C1Jo; u w...
O
O
O

 untapped ad potential on mobile? 

I

_-' US Media Usage to Ad Spending Ratios

12.0x
10.0
8.0
6.0 4.7x
4.0
I
'.  ...
beyond ads $50b on SMS

   
   
 

h  Advertising

   

. "th| Lr. -It-1!! ‘ 

10

Web Queries Onllne Ad Revenue SMS Messa...
‘L"‘. II('l¢jkP’: _l 4%, . _4_ H}; 

-w El? -J3‘:  Isl ifl,4:i: l, ‘ ‘Frengo _p-1y. .:. ..-  ,  ..   t  -. 

 

7-J _ _ _
_...
1,000 micro-content channels +

mobile monetization =  opportunity

 

7“__ [where i am] + [what i like]

(3 uqqed in to y...
hardv~/ are E‘:  sof"tv~. Iare
inflection points
inflection points

- where does hardware hold back what is possible? 

- what kind of new businesses can be enabled?
youtube was a warm up act
500+ million camera phones

Then NOW
.  [ _ c F ‘
1  :1: a _ t
a problem. ..
an opportunity

You Tube 

YouTube TOGO

- An average SMS is 140 bytes and costs 10 cents,  or
$750/MB

* Vi...
is wireless the answer? 

- yes,  but maybe not the wireless you think

  
 

  
 

U899 wired %

vwn 802.11 mg 2: 5 Maps -
one step further
100 GB on your cell phone?
100 GB =  power drain! 

’ TOSHIBA

Super Cha':4: H. J"L"y’

+

 

- battery life is the biggest obstacle to these technol...
you think you know

mobile tv
you think you know
the big screen
the new screen

 

- your mobile device as a full-fledged TV! 
- spatial photonics,  texas instruments,  microvision. ..
software freed from hardware

 

Moka5 allows your entire PC to be carried on your phone. ..
or your “phone on your phone”...
are we
 accelerating or decelerating?
real-time translation of speech is being developed
telemedicine

 

 

* your cell phone could be as a diagnostic tool

- care providers in rural areas could use a “Doc In a...
a different kind of cockroach

- 1999: UUnet founder predicts silicon cockroaches will
swamp internet traffic
a

"K-‘. ’i’l‘i, '; kirici of ctocizro

C. .tr. ».iL, r..  ‘C m  'ch |  Internet Protocol Trends 1993 to 2006

[In
016
P2?...
a clean example

‘Cail‘ilil6gi(’;  lr’ii. eii;0n.   gs,  i'J’, l.'[? ', is;  .. ... ...  ., 

i
.1 ‘J-. )'

4
V 9
9
i

t
Q...
baby steps toward banking
n ‘ -

'n. kn.  ‘ u‘
n
.  ' ' I I - .  . - I !  ‘ ' I’

- “your cell phone as your wallet'fv, _still waiting” (cnn)

1
. O

- In the Philippines, °°SIyAR'i"Radala offers a way to transmit. »’'. 
money from users via t°ext_me‘3.s_ages — witho...
Q 0
§ 4

a new banking market ‘

 

In Kenya,  Safaricon allows the transfer of surplus phone
minutes as pa; /ments — in e...
‘o
D
I .3

- 2D Barcodes alloyv dufcker sales without standing in line
(just point your phone at é1a, .item and go! )

- I...
I .  .

.  80%+ cell phones°*sQld in°’Japan have 2D barcode readers 

- 27% of consumers us’e~their. ’p. hones as barcode ...
I

I

6
I

parting thought

net growth has never stopped

Traffic MB
per Month

—| 

1,000,000,000

100,000, 000

10,000,0...
0.. 
O

parting thought
don’_t bet against the net

- even in the depths of the bust,  bets on IP proving out

I
I
I
‘ .  ...
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The Device That Used To Be Your Phone

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This presentation provide good insight on communication industry overall and how technology is transforming it rapidly.

Published in: Technology, Business

Transcript of "The Device That Used To Be Your Phone"

  1. 1. the device that used to be your : ' xv E vinod khosla, vk@khos| aventures. com
  2. 2. what you know. .. what should we be asking?
  3. 3. transport ' dead or alive?
  4. 4. . It «. . . . ‘r1‘v, "v" kf. ".| ’lF‘ n, s,l. ;" 1| ‘ ‘pf Hm‘ I H Q ~ ~ - " 1: I , , _ _ ‘ I ' “'4' -. I I_I_H IAIAflAIVI n_I -_-I M. II‘ J A . % The *. -mole world can talk for free. i: mro,1g x»: nr‘f. 1;: -item-git. :~“[; '1f'1i. ‘.1.
  5. 5. $1 trillion spent on telecom transport last year . ..so it's not quite dead, yet - mobile transport growing 15% in 2007 to $650B - wireline transport flat in 2007 at $5503
  6. 6. what’s next in transport: working with incumbent carriers: - do you have a choice? - if so, when do you want to be carrier friendly? how do new carriers change the rules?
  7. 7. Mo| P: Mobile over IP 0 truphone different approaches: existing voice networks or all IP?
  8. 8. what's next in trans ort: * do you want a desk phone and a cell phone? (many younger people have already made the choice)
  9. 9. So| P: Services over IP a sample service for small businesses: -professional image + more productivity = revenue -one simpler, cheaper landline + mobile phone - a proven model: tens of thousands of paid business customers but not paying for transport
  10. 10. what's next in trans ort: a- what if transport revenue didn’t “die” but GREW? ~ . ..and was paid for by businesses instead of consumers?
  11. 11. business-sponsored calling ~ Has this happened before? Sure. «- Toll Free / 800 business * Oh, and Google . ' ‘JR . » 2 g I ‘. *3 Seller pays
  12. 12. speaking of advertising
  13. 13. '0 0 0 0 o '0 '0 ‘Q 0 . .
  14. 14. what’s next in advertising: ~ broadcast TV is free «- tv over IP is expensive (iTunes) or illegal (BitTorrent) * sounds like we’re missing an ad model. .. -9“ what can IP video advertising learn from the web? fir» where else are we missing an ad model?
  15. 15. ad-supported tv — with ip ' travelocity 0' travclocity ' U3"3'0Clty LOS ANGELES BISMARCK ORL‘/ ?NDO f LAJS VEGAS ' LAS VEGAS . ,LA]S VEGAS $269 $423 $569 45 I ~ » or r .1 . 41 I ~ »- n 2 at right ad, right place, right time > free (legal) video
  16. 16. 3 Forsonailx; u N ad. 0’, Salad u ‘N uhadulc. . launch yo crnpciqn. Croat JR :1 -M "r it! ‘ I. you’ Mn. ‘ C1Jo; u what :11’. .r-»1 your :1 will rut - in anyone can produce and post ads, best ads rise to the top «» anyone can then customize those ads
  17. 17. O O O untapped ad potential on mobile? I _-' US Media Usage to Ad Spending Ratios 12.0x 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.7x 4.0 I '. 2.0 0.0
  18. 18. beyond ads $50b on SMS h Advertising . "th| Lr. -It-1!! ‘ 10 Web Queries Onllne Ad Revenue SMS Messages SMS Revenue (monthly - in billions) ('06 - billions of 5) (monthly - in billions) ('06 - billions of S)
  19. 19. ‘L"‘. II('l¢jkP’: _l 4%, . _4_ H}; -w El? -J3‘: Isl ifl,4:i: l, ‘ ‘Frengo _p-1y. .:. ..- , .. t -. 7-J _ _ _ _ Mn ‘ ‘I ‘ -‘ P r’ ‘ ' 1- wars 4: 1 , _ ‘ 54: . r.; , ’ '3' ‘~ rm rmrr. r:. ‘ Luna Aelu l‘ ‘r . - ? :5 V «.1. ‘ we- . ‘ ‘ ’ - _ l. <‘ Irgln 4 J; ".Jo. 'UL; ' '. 'll. ... ~*, , Tuu. | v. .i. .~, | , » ‘-: _ , .~. '.. '.", .-. ;‘. l' u. ..- . . 9.. .: no. .. and [-__: - sun». -.1 In Fnunnl , . _ Ariel -. -. ... » l_‘| mu -. :~. ... .». ‘ * “' “Q” ma-cu vbielngn '- Ulla} ihgr I ‘ M. ,.; .¢. .., .., _, l .1,-. um. . . ‘, mr Nlrylll 4 v _ L . — 1 P011 ' - I "'32 l - —. o' y ( ]_ J”’_, :_. p.g _‘_ ‘J l. ’ » H _ r: ‘/ : I.. »": t"1- ‘ : ' , 4: S r4 I " _ ' ! .-'‘ '4 ": ' my pace - -. D ‘ | ‘ I‘ 2 if n , ‘. 1 *‘-l mu ‘. '-it-mun‘ lining ”‘ K i ‘ '7 ~ kw v--s - ) ‘vi ‘W 0-= — s . .4 _ — - V
  20. 20. 1,000 micro-content channels + mobile monetization = opportunity 7“__ [where i am] + [what i like] (3 uqqed in to you local scene with our exclusive texts. No . no spam. Just timely irsihr nnlo sent to your phone.
  21. 21. hardv~/ are E‘: sof"tv~. Iare inflection points
  22. 22. inflection points - where does hardware hold back what is possible? - what kind of new businesses can be enabled?
  23. 23. youtube was a warm up act 500+ million camera phones Then NOW . [ _ c F ‘ 1 :1: a _ t
  24. 24. a problem. .. an opportunity You Tube YouTube TOGO - An average SMS is 140 bytes and costs 10 cents, or $750/MB * Video recording of a rock concert is 5 gigabytes and would cost $3.85M to upload at the same price
  25. 25. is wireless the answer? - yes, but maybe not the wireless you think U899 wired % vwn 802.11 mg 2: 5 Maps -
  26. 26. one step further 100 GB on your cell phone?
  27. 27. 100 GB = power drain! ’ TOSHIBA Super Cha':4: H. J"L"y’ + - battery life is the biggest obstacle to these technologies - batteries coming soon that recharge 80%+ in one minute! - expect more innovation here. ..
  28. 28. you think you know mobile tv
  29. 29. you think you know the big screen
  30. 30. the new screen - your mobile device as a full-fledged TV! - spatial photonics, texas instruments, microvision. ..
  31. 31. software freed from hardware Moka5 allows your entire PC to be carried on your phone. .. or your “phone on your phone” (entire address book. ..)
  32. 32. are we accelerating or decelerating?
  33. 33. real-time translation of speech is being developed
  34. 34. telemedicine * your cell phone could be as a diagnostic tool - care providers in rural areas could use a “Doc In a Phone”
  35. 35. a different kind of cockroach - 1999: UUnet founder predicts silicon cockroaches will swamp internet traffic
  36. 36. a "K-‘. ’i’l‘i, '; kirici of ctocizro C. .tr. ».iL, r.. ‘C m 'ch | Internet Protocol Trends 1993 to 2006 [In 016 P2? M L 0:14» 713.. ... . .5 ». ... ..L, .v. L1
  37. 37. a clean example ‘Cail‘ilil6gi(’; lr’ii. eii;0n. gs, i'J’, l.'[? ', is; .. ... ... ., i .1 ‘J-. )' 4 V 9 9 i t Q 6 6 9 - students know machine availability via cell phones, updates on laundry status via SMS -- if this is coming to washing machines, much broader use of m2m applications not far behind 4 ¢ 0 0 '1
  38. 38. baby steps toward banking
  39. 39. n ‘ - 'n. kn. ‘ u‘ n . ' ' I I - . . - I ! ‘ ' I’ - “your cell phone as your wallet'fv, _still waiting” (cnn) 1
  40. 40. . O - In the Philippines, °°SIyAR'i"Radala offers a way to transmit. »’'. money from users via t°ext_me‘3.s_ages — without bank accounts o 0, o ,9 a. .. . .u , u . . I I . . ' I I I I I I I I I 3' - ARYTY allows family/ friends in"t_he US to send prepaid minutes back to the Philippines ' I O. .
  41. 41. Q 0 § 4 a new banking market ‘ In Kenya, Safaricon allows the transfer of surplus phone minutes as pa; /ments — in effect, a new currency ’ - . ‘~. ~ . w . - . . 75». ~ ' - y '4 -I . 60% of mobile i‘J§‘ers. 'i~‘/ orldwide are prepaid I . -60% of $667b = $420}: in minutes as a potential currency 9 I 0‘ 9 * 0 ‘g I . ..why give carriers all t’tit—: -.i. nt'e, rest? N . 'n. ,._. . I‘ I I ‘ ' - u : . . . . . - I "
  42. 42. ‘o D I .3 - 2D Barcodes alloyv dufcker sales without standing in line (just point your phone at é1a, .item and go! ) - In Japan, the Felica. 'syst. em‘allows you to pay for tickets’ and buy food at stores I . I ‘In. . . . - - . '-. -‘III - More than 20 million Japanese ‘consumers have phones with embedded circuitry that can'-. _function as credit cards
  43. 43. I . . . 80%+ cell phones°*sQld in°’Japan have 2D barcode readers - 27% of consumers us’e~their. ’p. hones as barcode readers, oa°nd 26% use them as GPS systé'ms. ,_‘v_. . - Moreover, a significant minorit'y_(more than 10%) use their phones as FM radios, Voice Records, and TV Tuners I O O
  44. 44. I I 6 I parting thought net growth has never stopped Traffic MB per Month —| 1,000,000,000 100,000, 000 10,000,000 1,000,000 100,000 10,000 mminmmmz I I I I I I I 1,000 100
  45. 45. 0.. O parting thought don’_t bet against the net - even in the depths of the bust, bets on IP proving out I I I ‘ . I I I I I I I I I | . . .' I ‘.0’ '3'-, . _I 9 0. 0 n g C. . ' I Q Q. i_i O a ~ in inera v 0 '0 0 9 O O 9 O O Q 0 O o O 0 o 9 O 0. 0 ,9 0 ‘ I o I n. ’ ,
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