EVERYTHING
   YOU KNOW
  ABOUT VIRTUAL
     WORLDS
        IS

WRONG*
francesco dʼorazio, metameets 09, 22/23 may, amsterd...
linear predictions




            organic reality
The market evolution
Virtual Worlds platforms and
registered accounts growth

Worlds positioned by the
average age of the ...
Universe graph Q2 2008




                         Worlds positioned by the
                         average age of the u...
5 to 10 years old (Q1 2009)
Total reg accounts: 70m+
Worlds in development: 08
Key growth areas:
1)Toy Brands and Franchis...
10 to 15 years old (Q1 2009)
Total reg accounts: 230m+
Worlds in development: 07+

Key growth areas:
1) Avatar customizati...
15 to 25 years old (Q1 2009)
Total reg accounts: 50m+
Worlds in development: 09+
Key growth areas:
1) Mirror Worlds
2) Liv...
25+ years old (Q1 2009)
Total reg accounts: 20m+
Worlds in development: 06+

Key growth areas:
1) Mirror Worlds / Retail
2...
Projections
                                 22 % of global broadband
                                 users will register...
Forecasts
“80% of Active Internet Users Will Have A quot;Second Lifequot; in the
virtual world by the End of 2011”
       ...
we’re not going to be able




to handle so many avatars
all very cool.
there is only one problem...
...it’s not
    really
happening
we don’t have enough players

                 accounts doesn’t mean users

 “virtual worlds” searches             “second...
the
 people
who play
  are
 weird
...or, they’re
   just not
     really
mainstream
which doesn’t mean it’s not fun
only, we build stuff for the
         hardcore
which makes it even more
       expensive
and on top of that...
we don’t scale
WHY
  IS
THAT
 SO?
time to look into this




before it’s too late
it’s not real, I’m not bothering

something becomes real the moment
when two or more people share it

itʼs a matter of deg...
it’s just avatars,
not real people
to be completely honest,
 Bevan was looking as
         well




         when an avatar speaks
         [almost] nobody l...
you must be there

                          real-time
                        synchronous
                    communicati...
but is that really true?
accessibility
      sucks




                Using virtual worlds
                means running heavy
                app...
[lack of] web integration


What happens inside stays inside
RT @doeko
what problem
   are we
  solving?
and then...




we crossed the streams
“the web will evolve
from pages to places”
while it is actually
going from pages to
             streams
virtual worlds vs web:
real-time is making the
web immersive and a
virtual world itself

               where do virtual
 ...
is the real-time web
            cannibalizing virtual
                         worlds?



what more have virtual worlds
t...
Interoperability
Capability of two or more worlds to exchange
data via a common set of exchange formats.


Provides portab...
not happening
by standards
but by clusters
virtual
worlds are
a 30 years
old medium
they replicate the same 19th
  century immersive model
      of the panorama
immersion by
confinement
and containment
and how is
 markerless AR
     going to
challenge all this?

                       turning the
                        re...
The number of virtual
worlds is increasing rapidly
•200+ worlds online and in development
•350m+ registered accounts
•We a...
context   content
 driven    driven


single    multi
world     world
losing
  the
 world
metaphor
multi                         cross
                          vs
     world                         world
 using multiple ...
so what are the next
         steps

• cross-world mentality
• web integration
• connecting worlds
• storytelling
• keepin...
IPC GOES 3D
multi-title/cross-world
virtual goods campaign
Web integration
                                            Now
Social networks integration
More virtual worlds / web mash...
Outeroperability
 A central hub or destination for all avatars that
 acts as the gateway between the virtual worlds.


Con...
Outeroperability
                                                     ‣Single sign-on
                         Mobile Clie...
What are we going to do with
            connected worlds?

           Structuring participation
               is key to ...
Immersive Storytelling
 The user plays the role of the protagonist in a
        dramatically rich environment

           ...
What’s the story here?
                        simple narrative


       treasure hunts
        casual gaming
           p...
The Cross-World
Gaming System                                        AI
     XWorld                        World 1
   Gami...
The Metaverse as an
Entertainment Platform
          Market Diversification




            Web Integration




           ...
thanks!




          francesco.dorazio@gmail.com
           www.makersofuniverses.com
                             @abc3d
Francesco D'Orazio - Everything you know about virtual worlds is WRONG - MetaMeets 09, Amsterdam
Francesco D'Orazio - Everything you know about virtual worlds is WRONG - MetaMeets 09, Amsterdam
Francesco D'Orazio - Everything you know about virtual worlds is WRONG - MetaMeets 09, Amsterdam
Francesco D'Orazio - Everything you know about virtual worlds is WRONG - MetaMeets 09, Amsterdam
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Francesco D'Orazio - Everything you know about virtual worlds is WRONG - MetaMeets 09, Amsterdam

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Patterns and challenges in the evolution of immersive entertainment.

Plus, all the wrongest things you could possibly say at a virtual worlds conference.

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Francesco D'Orazio - Everything you know about virtual worlds is WRONG - MetaMeets 09, Amsterdam

  1. 1. EVERYTHING YOU KNOW ABOUT VIRTUAL WORLDS IS WRONG* francesco dʼorazio, metameets 09, 22/23 may, amsterdam *freely inspired by “Everything you know about ARGs is wrong”, Dan Hon, Six To Start
  2. 2. linear predictions organic reality
  3. 3. The market evolution Virtual Worlds platforms and registered accounts growth Worlds positioned by the average age of the users. This series only shows the 10-30 sector 2008 2006 2004
  4. 4. Universe graph Q2 2008 Worlds positioned by the average age of the users.
  5. 5. 5 to 10 years old (Q1 2009) Total reg accounts: 70m+ Worlds in development: 08 Key growth areas: 1)Toy Brands and Franchises 2) Spaces to play 3) Relationship building
  6. 6. 10 to 15 years old (Q1 2009) Total reg accounts: 230m+ Worlds in development: 07+ Key growth areas: 1) Avatar customization 2) Relationship building 3) Education
  7. 7. 15 to 25 years old (Q1 2009) Total reg accounts: 50m+ Worlds in development: 09+ Key growth areas: 1) Mirror Worlds 2) Live Events 3) Media Convergence 4) Vertical Worlds
  8. 8. 25+ years old (Q1 2009) Total reg accounts: 20m+ Worlds in development: 06+ Key growth areas: 1) Mirror Worlds / Retail 2) Existing Social Networks 3) Business usage
  9. 9. Projections 22 % of global broadband users will register for one or more virtual worlds over the next 10 years. -1 billion registrants - 8 billion dollar services opportunity eMarketer estimates that by 2011 53% of total Internet users ages 3-17 will visit a Virtual World at least once per month
  10. 10. Forecasts “80% of Active Internet Users Will Have A quot;Second Lifequot; in the virtual world by the End of 2011” (Gartner, April 2007) ”52% of internet users in most developed countries will use a 3D avatar at least once a week by the end of 2016” (Metaverse Roadmap, 2007) “In the next 12 months 6-8 million Internet users will try virtual worlds and weekly active users will grow by 2-3 million” (Parks Associates, April 2008) quot;By 2012, 70% of organizations will have established their own private virtual worldsquot; (Gartner, May 2008)
  11. 11. we’re not going to be able to handle so many avatars
  12. 12. all very cool. there is only one problem...
  13. 13. ...it’s not really happening
  14. 14. we don’t have enough players accounts doesn’t mean users “virtual worlds” searches “second life” searches visibility didn’t turn into engagement
  15. 15. the people who play are weird
  16. 16. ...or, they’re just not really mainstream
  17. 17. which doesn’t mean it’s not fun
  18. 18. only, we build stuff for the hardcore
  19. 19. which makes it even more expensive
  20. 20. and on top of that... we don’t scale
  21. 21. WHY IS THAT SO?
  22. 22. time to look into this before it’s too late
  23. 23. it’s not real, I’m not bothering something becomes real the moment when two or more people share it itʼs a matter of degrees on a continuum virtual is as real as quot;realquot; can get as long as itʼs shared. the problem is that virtual worlds are not shared enough, therefore they are not that real
  24. 24. it’s just avatars, not real people
  25. 25. to be completely honest, Bevan was looking as well when an avatar speaks [almost] nobody looks
  26. 26. you must be there real-time synchronous communication limits the engagement and narrows the adoption
  27. 27. but is that really true?
  28. 28. accessibility sucks Using virtual worlds means running heavy applications on specific machines
  29. 29. [lack of] web integration What happens inside stays inside
  30. 30. RT @doeko what problem are we solving?
  31. 31. and then... we crossed the streams
  32. 32. “the web will evolve from pages to places”
  33. 33. while it is actually going from pages to streams
  34. 34. virtual worlds vs web: real-time is making the web immersive and a virtual world itself where do virtual worlds and the 3d web fit in this scenario?
  35. 35. is the real-time web cannibalizing virtual worlds? what more have virtual worlds to offer? Gaming? SN? 3D? And is this appealing enough
  36. 36. Interoperability Capability of two or more worlds to exchange data via a common set of exchange formats. Provides portability of identities, avatars and assets. • Acceptance of common standards • Every world has to connect to every world • Requires a strong collaboration from each publisher • Perceived as a zero-sum game • Who owns the standards? • Appearance • Inventory transfer and access • Names • IP issues • Payments and currency • Missing inter-world regulatory institutions
  37. 37. not happening by standards but by clusters
  38. 38. virtual worlds are a 30 years old medium
  39. 39. they replicate the same 19th century immersive model of the panorama
  40. 40. immersion by confinement and containment
  41. 41. and how is markerless AR going to challenge all this? turning the real world into a virtual world?
  42. 42. The number of virtual worlds is increasing rapidly •200+ worlds online and in development •350m+ registered accounts •We are where the Social Networking industry was in 2003-2005 but •The technology is not mature •The market is not mature •The growth and life cycles of virtual worlds are very different
  43. 43. context content driven driven single multi world world
  44. 44. losing the world metaphor
  45. 45. multi cross vs world world using multiple virtual worlds for different engaging in purposes, maintaining interactions that multiple active unfold across two or accounts in various more virtual worlds worlds happening now starting to happen content creators, explorers, socializers (multi-avatar 15%, avg 3, min2, max 16)
  46. 46. so what are the next steps • cross-world mentality • web integration • connecting worlds • storytelling • keeping it real: things and places
  47. 47. IPC GOES 3D multi-title/cross-world virtual goods campaign
  48. 48. Web integration Now Social networks integration More virtual worlds / web mashups More synchronous communication tools into web pages 2D/3D integrations More web-based virtual worlds Virtual worlds/web integrations Mobile access to virtual worlds Virtual worlds / real world data blending Future
  49. 49. Outeroperability A central hub or destination for all avatars that acts as the gateway between the virtual worlds. Connects virtual worlds and the web and the worlds between them using the web as a bridge. Worlds need it to be visible, users need it to keep up easily with their virtual lives. • Worlds don’t need to speak to each other • Light involvement of the virtual world publisher • The integration is modular and based on standard web technology • It doesn’t support portability • But it doesn’t involve the issues connected to it • Allows the development of applications on top of the virtual worlds
  50. 50. Outeroperability ‣Single sign-on Mobile Client ‣Identity Management ‣Search Apps ‣Worlds Browsing The Web ‣Social Networking ‣Social Ranking ‣Recommendations ‣Mobile Apps Gateway ‣Micro Payments ‣Gaming World 7 World 1 World 6 World 2 World 3 World 5 World 4
  51. 51. What are we going to do with connected worlds? Structuring participation is key to achieve immersive engagement “we do not merely 'suspend' a critical faculty; we also exercise a creative faculty. We do not suspend disbelief so much as we actively create belief ” (sharon murray)
  52. 52. Immersive Storytelling The user plays the role of the protagonist in a dramatically rich environment The user wanders around a dramatic universe of possibilities which lacks the sense of directed inevitability. Storytelling is a need and a huge opportunity for virtual worlds
  53. 53. What’s the story here? simple narrative treasure hunts casual gaming paths quests RPG ARG complex narrative
  54. 54. The Cross-World Gaming System AI XWorld World 1 Gaming Engine RL Stand-alone client Agents Gateway World 2 The Web World 3 Mobile World 4
  55. 55. The Metaverse as an Entertainment Platform Market Diversification Web Integration Multi-world usage XWorld Immersive Storytelling
  56. 56. thanks! francesco.dorazio@gmail.com www.makersofuniverses.com @abc3d

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