Francesco D'Orazio - Everything you know about virtual worlds is WRONG - MetaMeets 09, Amsterdam

EVERYTHING YOU KNOW ABOUT VIRTUAL WORLDS IS WRONG* francesco dʼorazio, metameets 09, 22/23 may, amsterdam *freely inspired by “Everything you know about ARGs is wrong”, Dan Hon, Six To Start

linear predictions organic reality

The market evolution Virtual Worlds platforms and registered accounts growth Worlds positioned by the average age of the users. This series only shows the 10-30 sector 2008 2006 2004

Universe graph Q2 2008 Worlds positioned by the average age of the users.

5 to 10 years old (Q1 2009) Total reg accounts: 70m+ Worlds in development: 08 Key growth areas: 1)Toy Brands and Franchises 2) Spaces to play 3) Relationship building

10 to 15 years old (Q1 2009) Total reg accounts: 230m+ Worlds in development: 07+ Key growth areas: 1) Avatar customization 2) Relationship building 3) Education

15 to 25 years old (Q1 2009) Total reg accounts: 50m+ Worlds in development: 09+ Key growth areas: 1) Mirror Worlds 2) Live Events 3) Media Convergence 4) Vertical Worlds

25+ years old (Q1 2009) Total reg accounts: 20m+ Worlds in development: 06+ Key growth areas: 1) Mirror Worlds / Retail 2) Existing Social Networks 3) Business usage

Projections 22 % of global broadband users will register for one or more virtual worlds over the next 10 years. -1 billion registrants - 8 billion dollar services opportunity eMarketer estimates that by 2011 53% of total Internet users ages 3-17 will visit a Virtual World at least once per month

Forecasts “80% of Active Internet Users Will Have A quot;Second Lifequot; in the virtual world by the End of 2011” (Gartner, April 2007) ”52% of internet users in most developed countries will use a 3D avatar at least once a week by the end of 2016” (Metaverse Roadmap, 2007) “In the next 12 months 6-8 million Internet users will try virtual worlds and weekly active users will grow by 2-3 million” (Parks Associates, April 2008) quot;By 2012, 70% of organizations will have established their own private virtual worldsquot; (Gartner, May 2008)

we’re not going to be able to handle so many avatars

all very cool. there is only one problem...

...it’s not really happening

we don’t have enough players accounts doesn’t mean users “virtual worlds” searches “second life” searches visibility didn’t turn into engagement

the people who play are weird

...or, they’re just not really mainstream

which doesn’t mean it’s not fun

only, we build stuff for the hardcore

which makes it even more expensive

and on top of that... we don’t scale

WHY IS THAT SO?

time to look into this before it’s too late

it’s not real, I’m not bothering something becomes real the moment when two or more people share it itʼs a matter of degrees on a continuum virtual is as real as quot;realquot; can get as long as itʼs shared. the problem is that virtual worlds are not shared enough, therefore they are not that real

it’s just avatars, not real people

to be completely honest, Bevan was looking as well when an avatar speaks [almost] nobody looks

you must be there real-time synchronous communication limits the engagement and narrows the adoption

but is that really true?

accessibility sucks Using virtual worlds means running heavy applications on speciﬁc machines

[lack of] web integration What happens inside stays inside

RT @doeko what problem are we solving?

and then... we crossed the streams

“the web will evolve from pages to places”

while it is actually going from pages to streams

virtual worlds vs web: real-time is making the web immersive and a virtual world itself where do virtual worlds and the 3d web ﬁt in this scenario?

is the real-time web cannibalizing virtual worlds? what more have virtual worlds to offer? Gaming? SN? 3D? And is this appealing enough

Interoperability Capability of two or more worlds to exchange data via a common set of exchange formats. Provides portability of identities, avatars and assets. • Acceptance of common standards • Every world has to connect to every world • Requires a strong collaboration from each publisher • Perceived as a zero-sum game • Who owns the standards? • Appearance • Inventory transfer and access • Names • IP issues • Payments and currency • Missing inter-world regulatory institutions

not happening by standards but by clusters

virtual worlds are a 30 years old medium

they replicate the same 19th century immersive model of the panorama

immersion by conﬁnement and containment

and how is markerless AR going to challenge all this? turning the real world into a virtual world?

The number of virtual worlds is increasing rapidly •200+ worlds online and in development •350m+ registered accounts •We are where the Social Networking industry was in 2003-2005 but •The technology is not mature •The market is not mature •The growth and life cycles of virtual worlds are very different

context content driven driven single multi world world

losing the world metaphor

multi cross vs world world using multiple virtual worlds for different engaging in purposes, maintaining interactions that multiple active unfold across two or accounts in various more virtual worlds worlds happening now starting to happen content creators, explorers, socializers (multi-avatar 15%, avg 3, min2, max 16)

so what are the next steps • cross-world mentality • web integration • connecting worlds • storytelling • keeping it real: things and places

IPC GOES 3D multi-title/cross-world virtual goods campaign

Web integration Now Social networks integration More virtual worlds / web mashups More synchronous communication tools into web pages 2D/3D integrations More web-based virtual worlds Virtual worlds/web integrations Mobile access to virtual worlds Virtual worlds / real world data blending Future

Outeroperability A central hub or destination for all avatars that acts as the gateway between the virtual worlds. Connects virtual worlds and the web and the worlds between them using the web as a bridge. Worlds need it to be visible, users need it to keep up easily with their virtual lives. • Worlds don’t need to speak to each other • Light involvement of the virtual world publisher • The integration is modular and based on standard web technology • It doesn’t support portability • But it doesn’t involve the issues connected to it • Allows the development of applications on top of the virtual worlds

Outeroperability ‣Single sign-on Mobile Client ‣Identity Management ‣Search Apps ‣Worlds Browsing The Web ‣Social Networking ‣Social Ranking ‣Recommendations ‣Mobile Apps Gateway ‣Micro Payments ‣Gaming World 7 World 1 World 6 World 2 World 3 World 5 World 4

What are we going to do with connected worlds? Structuring participation is key to achieve immersive engagement “we do not merely 'suspend' a critical faculty; we also exercise a creative faculty. We do not suspend disbelief so much as we actively create belief ” (sharon murray)

Immersive Storytelling The user plays the role of the protagonist in a dramatically rich environment The user wanders around a dramatic universe of possibilities which lacks the sense of directed inevitability. Storytelling is a need and a huge opportunity for virtual worlds

What’s the story here? simple narrative treasure hunts casual gaming paths quests RPG ARG complex narrative

The Cross-World Gaming System AI XWorld World 1 Gaming Engine RL Stand-alone client Agents Gateway World 2 The Web World 3 Mobile World 4

The Metaverse as an Entertainment Platform Market Diversiﬁcation Web Integration Multi-world usage XWorld Immersive Storytelling

thanks! francesco.dorazio@gmail.com www.makersofuniverses.com @abc3d

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Francesco D'Orazio - Everything you know about virtual worlds is WRONG - MetaMeets 09, Amsterdam

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