• Share
  • Email
  • Embed
  • Like
  • Save
  • Private Content
9. ifpri   aagw2010 - 9 june 2010
 

9. ifpri aagw2010 - 9 june 2010

on

  • 547 views

 

Statistics

Views

Total Views
547
Views on SlideShare
546
Embed Views
1

Actions

Likes
1
Downloads
0
Comments
0

1 Embed 1

http://www.slideshare.net 1

Accessibility

Categories

Upload Details

Uploaded via as Microsoft PowerPoint

Usage Rights

© All Rights Reserved

Report content

Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
  • Full Name Full Name Comment goes here.
    Are you sure you want to
    Your message goes here
    Processing…
Post Comment
Edit your comment
  • Users can simulate a range of market, technology adoption, research spillover, and trade policy scenarios based on a flexible, multi-market, partial equilibrium model.With DREAM you can define a range of technology investment, development, and adoption scenarios and save them in an integrated database. Scenarios are described using market, R&D, and adoption information for any number of separate “regions.”

9. ifpri   aagw2010 - 9 june 2010 9. ifpri aagw2010 - 9 june 2010 Presentation Transcript

  • Development Domain Analysis
    Agricultural Potential
    Land Cover
    Market Access
    Crop Systems Modeling
    Farm-gate Price Modeling
    Spatial Analysis at IFPRI
    ZHE GUO*, EMILY SCHMIDT, JAWOO KOO, RIA TENORIO
    * GIS COORDINATOR (z.guo@cgiar.org)
    Environment and Production Technology Division
    International Food Policy Research Institute
    AAGW2010/NAIROBI
    9 JUNE 2010
  • Domain Analysis
    Overview
  • To use a set of domain criteria to identify focus area and regions which have similarity or dissimilarity of conditions of relevance to agricultural development.
    To capture and analyze the region patterns of agriculture productivity and potentials.
    • Ag-potential
    • Land cover
    • Market access
    Development Domain Analysis
  • Development domain analysis
    • Development domains
    • Existing: land cover * Rural Population *[Market access]
    • Potential: Ag-potential (eg. LGP, NDVI) * Rural Population*[Market access]
    • Further economic analysis (e.g. DREAM model)
    existing cropland *rural population density
    potential cropland *rural population density
    Potential cropland density are derived from statistical variables (e.g. mean, min, max, standard deviation) of monthly NDVI and classified into high, med, low . The rural population density is classified into high, med and low classes. Development domain classes are developed from the intersection of the two variables.
    Existing cropland density is derived from Afri-cover datasets and are classified into high and low classes. The rural population density is classified into high, med and low classes. Domain classes (2*3=6) are developed from the intersection of the two variables.
  • AGRICULTURAL POTENTIAL
    Domain Analysis
  • Ag-potential variables
  • PLANTING
    WINDOW
    OF
    RAINFED CROPS
    SSA
    MODIS
    Greenness Up/Down
    Season A/B
    Weekly window
  • Land Cover
    Domain Analysis
  • Existing cropland variables
    GLC2000
    (2000)
    Globcover
    (2005)
    MODIS
    (2001)
    Africover
    (~2000)
  • Existing cropland variables
  • Market Access
    Domain Analysis
  • Market access
  • Crop systems modeling
    Biophysical Evaluation
  • SIMULATED
    CLIMATE CHANGE
    IMPACTS ON
    CROP YIELD
    2000 and 2050
    DSSAT 4.5
    Maize
    Subsistence
    FutureClim 1.0
    MIROC 3.2 (IPCC4)
    A2 SRES
    • By 2050, the decline in calorie availability will increase child malnutrition by 20 percentrelative to a world with no climate change.
    • Thus, aggressive agricultural productivity investments of US$7.1–7.3 billion are neededto raise calorie consumption enough to offset the negative impacts of climate change on the health and well-being of children.
    ASSESSING
    CLIMATE CHANGE
    IMPACT ON AGRICULTURE
    AND
    COSTS OF ADAPTATION
    IMPACT
    Partial equilibrium ag. sector model
    Base year 2005; projection to 2050
    Model changes in crop area and yields
    production, value of production,
    food availability per capita, child malnutrition and hunger impacts
    DSSAT 4.02
    Yield changes of staple crops
    IFPRI Food Policy Report 21 “Climate change impact on agriculture and costs of adaptation”
  • 1965
    SIMULATED
    LONG-TERM
    CHANGES IN
    CROP YIELD
    Rainfed
    Maize
    SSA
    DSSAT 4.5
    1965-2000
    Climate: CRU-Mashup
    Soil: HC27
    2000
  • Cumulative
    Probability (%)
    SIMULATED
    LONG-TERM
    CHANGES IN
    CROP YIELD
    Rainfed
    Maize
    Ethiopia
    DSSAT 4.5
    1961-2000
    Climate: CRU-MashupSoil: HC27
    Cultivar:
    • Traditional
    • Hybrid
  • MAIZE Price modeling
    Estimating Farm Gate Prices
  • Price modeling overview
    • Ports locations
    • Land cover types
    • Elevation and Slope
    • Regulation cost
    • Storage cost
    • Marketing Margins
    20
  • Farm-gate maize price modeling
  • Spatial analysis at ifpri
    IFPRI Spatial Ignite | 3 June 2010
  • SPATIAL
    ECONOMETRIC
    ANALYSES
    1991-2006
    Neighbor’s Growth Effect (%)
  • AGRICULTURAL
    WATER
    MANAGEMENT
    SOLUTIONS
    SPAM
    SWAT
    EPIC
  • AGRICULTURE
    AND
    MALARIA
    RISK
    Maize, tree crops, and cattle
    Household survey 2006
    7,426 households
    14,000 parcels
    Geographically-weightedregression
    High Risk?: Cattle and Maize within 2-km radius
    Low Risk?: No Agriculture within 2-km radius
  • MODELING
    ACCESSIBILITY TO
    HEALTH CARE
    SERVICES
    Yemen
    Gravity model
    Accessibility
    Hospitals
    Rural health centers
    Educational programs
  • DATA
    VISUALIZATION
    Tableau Public
    http://tableausoftware.com