9. ifpri aagw2010 - 9 june 2010Presentation Transcript
Development Domain Analysis Agricultural Potential Land Cover Market Access Crop Systems Modeling Farm-gate Price Modeling Spatial Analysis at IFPRI ZHE GUO*, EMILY SCHMIDT, JAWOO KOO, RIA TENORIO * GIS COORDINATOR (firstname.lastname@example.org) Environment and Production Technology Division International Food Policy Research Institute AAGW2010/NAIROBI 9 JUNE 2010
Domain Analysis Overview
To use a set of domain criteria to identify focus area and regions which have similarity or dissimilarity of conditions of relevance to agricultural development. To capture and analyze the region patterns of agriculture productivity and potentials.
Development Domain Analysis
Development domain analysis
Existing: land cover * Rural Population *[Market access]
existing cropland *rural population density potential cropland *rural population density Potential cropland density are derived from statistical variables (e.g. mean, min, max, standard deviation) of monthly NDVI and classified into high, med, low . The rural population density is classified into high, med and low classes. Development domain classes are developed from the intersection of the two variables. Existing cropland density is derived from Afri-cover datasets and are classified into high and low classes. The rural population density is classified into high, med and low classes. Domain classes (2*3=6) are developed from the intersection of the two variables.
AGRICULTURAL POTENTIAL Domain Analysis
PLANTING WINDOW OF RAINFED CROPS SSA MODIS Greenness Up/Down Season A/B Weekly window
By 2050, the decline in calorie availability will increase child malnutrition by 20 percentrelative to a world with no climate change.
Thus, aggressive agricultural productivity investments of US$7.1–7.3 billion are neededto raise calorie consumption enough to offset the negative impacts of climate change on the health and well-being of children.
ASSESSING CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON AGRICULTURE AND COSTS OF ADAPTATION IMPACT Partial equilibrium ag. sector model Base year 2005; projection to 2050 Model changes in crop area and yields production, value of production, food availability per capita, child malnutrition and hunger impacts DSSAT 4.02 Yield changes of staple crops IFPRI Food Policy Report 21 “Climate change impact on agriculture and costs of adaptation”
AGRICULTURAL WATER MANAGEMENT SOLUTIONS SPAM SWAT EPIC
AGRICULTURE AND MALARIA RISK Maize, tree crops, and cattle Household survey 2006 7,426 households 14,000 parcels Geographically-weightedregression High Risk?: Cattle and Maize within 2-km radius Low Risk?: No Agriculture within 2-km radius
MODELING ACCESSIBILITY TO HEALTH CARE SERVICES Yemen Gravity model Accessibility Hospitals Rural health centers Educational programs
DATA VISUALIZATION Tableau Public http://tableausoftware.com