Decision Making and Complexity

             Complex Unknown unknowns                                             Complica...
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Decision Making and Complexity

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Poster created for Leadership for Tomorrow, The Ohio State University.

Authors are Anne Mims Adrian, Rhonda Conlon, Kevin Gamble, Beth Raney, and Jerry Thomas

Published in: Business
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Decision Making and Complexity

  1. 1. Decision Making and Complexity Complex Unknown unknowns Complicated Known unknowns Cause and effect are coherent only in C d ff t h t l i Cause and effect are discoverable and C d ff t di bl d retrospect and do not repeat separated over time and space Emergent practice Good practice Pattern management Expert diagnosis Perspective filters More than one possible right answer Complex adaptive system Analytical and scenario planning Probe-Sense-Respond Systems thinking Sense-Analyze-Respond Chaotic Unknowables Simple Known knowns No cause and effect Cause and effect is obvious, repeatable, Novel practice and predictable Stability-focused intervention Best practice Enactment tools Standard operating procedure Crisis management Sense–Categorize–Respond Act-Sense-Respond en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Cynefin.png www.anecdote.com.au/archives/2009/04/a_simple_explan.html www anecdote com au/archives/2009/04/a simple explan html Snowden, D.J. Boone, M. "A Leader's Framework for Decision Making". Harvard Business Review, November 2007, pp. 69-76. We often deal with communications, culture, innovation, leadership, and trust as if they are in the complicated or simple domain, not in the complex domain. We use analytics or standard operating procedures when we should be using probing and sensing techniques. Relying on expert opinions and best practices, based on historically stable patterns, does not sufficiently prepare us to recognize and act upon unexpected patterns. What if…. we approached funding, communications, decision-making, policy making, publishing, collaborative work, and sharing knowledge by first considering which domain the problems and decisions lie? Presenters: Anne Mims Adrian: mimsann@auburn.edu; Rhonda Conlon: rhonda_conlon@ncsu.edu; Kevin Gamble: kevin.gamble@extension.org; Beth Raney: beth.raney@extension.org; Jerry Thomas: thomas.69@cfaes.osu.edu.

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