Decision Making and Complexity
Complex Unknown unknowns Complicated Known unknowns
Cause and effect are coherent only in
C d ff t h t l i Cause and effect are discoverable and
C d ff t di bl d
retrospect and do not repeat separated over time and space
Emergent practice Good practice
Pattern management Expert diagnosis
Perspective filters More than one possible right answer
Complex adaptive system Analytical and scenario planning
Probe-Sense-Respond Systems thinking
Chaotic Unknowables Simple Known knowns
No cause and effect Cause and effect is obvious, repeatable,
Novel practice and predictable
Stability-focused intervention Best practice
Enactment tools Standard operating procedure
www anecdote com au/archives/2009/04/a simple explan html
Snowden, D.J. Boone, M. "A Leader's Framework for Decision Making". Harvard Business Review, November 2007, pp. 69-76.
We often deal with communications, culture, innovation, leadership, and trust as if they are in the
complicated or simple domain, not in the complex domain. We use analytics or standard operating
procedures when we should be using probing and sensing techniques.
Relying on expert opinions and best practices, based on historically stable patterns, does not
sufficiently prepare us to recognize and act upon unexpected patterns.
we approached funding, communications, decision-making, policy making, publishing, collaborative
work, and sharing knowledge by first considering which domain the problems and decisions lie?
Anne Mims Adrian: firstname.lastname@example.org; Rhonda Conlon: email@example.com; Kevin Gamble: firstname.lastname@example.org;
Beth Raney: email@example.com; Jerry Thomas: firstname.lastname@example.org.