PAGE 1
Moneyball Marketing
Sheji Ho, Group CMO | November 2015
Tech in Asia Jakarta 2015
PAGE 2
Source: http://marketergraham.com/pmcam-product-market-fit-is-not-enough
Before growth… taking a step back
01 Product-Market Fit
PAGE 4
Product-Market Fit (Ellis, Blank, Andreessen, Ries)
Source: http://www.startup-marketing.com/the-startup-pyramid
PAGE 5
PAGE 6
PAGE 7
• $400m VC investment
(Benchmark, Sequoia,
Softbank, GS, Yahoo, etc.)
• Raised $375m in IPO, valued
at $4.8b USD
• ...
PAGE 8
“Instacart and Postmates are
both avoiding the
infrastructure model
mistakes. They are leveraging
the existing infr...
PAGE 9
https://medium.com/backchannel/why-homejoy-failed-bb0ab39d901a
PAGE 10
https://medium.com/backchannel/why-homejoy-failed-bb0ab39d901a
“We were spending a lot of
money to acquire them, b...
PAGE 11
https://medium.com/@dunn/start-up-drugs-922fdc3a57c8
“Spending a lot of money
on paid marketing is a great
way to ...
PAGE 12
https://medium.com/@dunn/start-up-drugs-922fdc3a57c8
“Once the dust settles, as you look
more closely, you will fi...
PAGE 13
http://avc.com/2015/07/growth-vs-retention
Growth vs. Retention (Fred Wilson)
PAGE 14
Ashley Madison – 80% annual churn
y = -0.0015x + 0.0738
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
7th
...
PAGE 15
“Product-Market Fit” for Ecommerce
1. Price
2. Product offering (range, depth,
exclusivity, proprietary)
3. Paymen...
PAGE 16
Which one will you buy?*
02 Ecosystem
PAGE 18
“We are not fit to lead an
army on the march
unless we are familiar
with the face of the
country–its mountains
and...
PAGE 19
PAGE 20
Web 1.0 – “Homepages”
PAGE 21
Web 1.5 – “Self-publishing/blogging/UGC”
PAGE 22
Web 2.0 – “Social Media”
PAGE 23
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 ...
PAGE 24
Long Tail (Chris Anderson)
• E-commerce (Amazon)
• Advertising (Google
Adwords, Adsense)
• Publishing (blogs,
crow...
PAGE 25
Long Tail / Pareto distribution in Publishing
PAGE 26
Source: http://gapingvoid.com
PAGE 27
“No Tail” in SEA because it skipped Web 1.0/1.5
PAGE 28
PAGE 29
Chicken and Egg Issue
PAGE 30
PAGE 31
PAGE 32
No-Tail implications on ecosystem in SEA
• Relatively simple ad tech environment
• Affiliate marketing still nasce...
PAGE 33
“Running programmatic display advertising
in most of Southeast Asia is like buying a
Lamborghini but driving it in...
PAGE 34
Reading Tea Leaves
PAGE 35
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 ...
PAGE 36
Accelerated development and proliferance of
e-commerce and other non-ad based business models
PAGE 37
Accelerated development and proliferance of
e-commerce and other non-ad based business models
PAGE 38
Accelerated development and proliferance of
e-commerce and other non-ad based business models
PAGE 39
Limits to monetization through ads in Southeast Asia
Launched sticker set, after one
week:
• 5M followers
• Block ...
03 Product-Channel Fit
PAGE 41
Shiny Object Syndrome (Traditional Agencies)
http://creativity-online.com/work/dominos-emoji-ordering/42507
PAGE 42
Some terminology
• Digital marketing (agencies, brands)
• Internet marketing (old schoolers, e.g. eBay)
• Demand g...
PAGE 43
PAGE 44
The CMO as Billy Beane
“Enter the Moneyballer CMO.
Today’s Moneyballer CMO plans her marketing initiatives the way...
PAGE 45
PAGE 46
“The new job title of “Growth Hacker” is
integrating itself into Silicon Valley’s
culture, emphasizing that coding...
PAGE 47
http://www.urbandictionary.com
PAGE 48
PAGE 49
PAGE 50
PAGE 51
PAGE 52
AARRR Framework (Dave McClure)
PAGE 53
1. Conversion Funnel
2. Channel/Portfolio
Management
3. Optimization
4. Email
5. Analytics
6. User Quality
7. Peop...
PAGE 54
Pillar 1: Conversion Funnel
PAGE 55
Pillar 2: Channel / Portfolio Management
PAGE 56
Pillar 3: Optimization
PAGE 57
Pillar 4: Email
PAGE 58
PAGE 59
Pillar 5: Analytics
PAGE 60
PAGE 61
Pillar 6: User Quality
PAGE 62
PAGE 63
PAGE 64
Cohort Analysis… by channel
PAGE 65
PAGE 66
“What they don’t do is the more nuanced (hard) work of looking at
how the marginal cohorts are declining in value....
PAGE 67
http://www.coelevate.com/essays/customer-acquisition
Shape yourself like a “T” (Brian Balfour)
PAGE 68
Good luck and stay in touch!
Sheji Ho
Group CMO,
aCommerce
E: sheji@acommerce.asia
M: +66 (0) 9 2596 5656
Skype: s...
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How to do 'Moneyball' Marketing - aCommerce Tech in Asia Jakarta 2015

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In this session, aCommerce CMO, Sheji Ho, who is heavily experienced in both traditional and digital performance marketing shares what he defines as 'Moneyball' marketing in ecommerce. He also discusses why China is too tough for American companies and what necessary technical skills are needed by new ecommerce marketers to make their business stand out from the influx of new ecommerce startups.

aCommerce presentation at Tech in Asia Jakarta 2015

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How to do 'Moneyball' Marketing - aCommerce Tech in Asia Jakarta 2015

  1. 1. PAGE 1 Moneyball Marketing Sheji Ho, Group CMO | November 2015 Tech in Asia Jakarta 2015
  2. 2. PAGE 2 Source: http://marketergraham.com/pmcam-product-market-fit-is-not-enough Before growth… taking a step back
  3. 3. 01 Product-Market Fit
  4. 4. PAGE 4 Product-Market Fit (Ellis, Blank, Andreessen, Ries) Source: http://www.startup-marketing.com/the-startup-pyramid
  5. 5. PAGE 5
  6. 6. PAGE 6
  7. 7. PAGE 7 • $400m VC investment (Benchmark, Sequoia, Softbank, GS, Yahoo, etc.) • Raised $375m in IPO, valued at $4.8b USD • Cumulative revenues of $395k; losses of $50m at IPO time • $1bn order for high-tech warehouses
  8. 8. PAGE 8 “Instacart and Postmates are both avoiding the infrastructure model mistakes. They are leveraging the existing infrastructure of grocery stores, not building their own infrastructure. They focus on two areas, delivery and customer service, and concentrate their resources on excelling in those departments.”http://techcrunch.com/2013/09/27/why-webvan-failed-and- how-home-delivery-2-0-is-addressing-the-problems
  9. 9. PAGE 9 https://medium.com/backchannel/why-homejoy-failed-bb0ab39d901a
  10. 10. PAGE 10 https://medium.com/backchannel/why-homejoy-failed-bb0ab39d901a “We were spending a lot of money to acquire them, but not really retaining them.” “By the time the founders began to explore strategies for improving service and alternatives to Facebook ads and Groupon bargains to yield higher retention rates, it was already too late.”
  11. 11. PAGE 11 https://medium.com/@dunn/start-up-drugs-922fdc3a57c8 “Spending a lot of money on paid marketing is a great way to scale a bad business.” – Andy Rachleff, Co-Founder, Benchmark Capital, WealthFront (Ironically also invested in Webvan) Start-Up Drugs
  12. 12. PAGE 12 https://medium.com/@dunn/start-up-drugs-922fdc3a57c8 “Once the dust settles, as you look more closely, you will find you are acquiring worse and worse cohorts of customers. In many cases, to make the advertising really sing, you are running promotions and deals that erode your margin and your brand.” – Andy Dunn, Founder and CEO, Bonobos Start-Up Drugs
  13. 13. PAGE 13 http://avc.com/2015/07/growth-vs-retention Growth vs. Retention (Fred Wilson)
  14. 14. PAGE 14 Ashley Madison – 80% annual churn y = -0.0015x + 0.0738 -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th 17th 18th 19th 20th 21st 22nd 23rd 24th 25th 26th 27th 28th 29th 30th 31st 32nd 33rd 34th 35th 36th 37th 38th 39th 40th 41st 42nd 43rd 44th 45th 46th 47th 48th 49th 50th 51st 52nd 53rd 54th Monthly churn rates by cohort Credits: https://twitter.com/pat_pwt
  15. 15. PAGE 15 “Product-Market Fit” for Ecommerce 1. Price 2. Product offering (range, depth, exclusivity, proprietary) 3. Payment options 4. Delivery – options, speed, price/free 5. User experience 6. Customer service 7. Brand
  16. 16. PAGE 16 Which one will you buy?*
  17. 17. 02 Ecosystem
  18. 18. PAGE 18 “We are not fit to lead an army on the march unless we are familiar with the face of the country–its mountains and forests, its pitfalls and precipices, its marshes and swamps.” – Sun Tzu
  19. 19. PAGE 19
  20. 20. PAGE 20 Web 1.0 – “Homepages”
  21. 21. PAGE 21 Web 1.5 – “Self-publishing/blogging/UGC”
  22. 22. PAGE 22 Web 2.0 – “Social Media”
  23. 23. PAGE 23 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 US Thailand Indonesia SEA skipped Web 1.0/1.5 Web 1.0 – “Homepages” US: 30.1% TH: 1.1% ID: 0.3% US: 61.7% TH: 9.3% ID: 2.4% US: 75% TH: 20% ID: 5.8% Web 1.5 – “Self-Publishing/Blogging/UGC” Web 2.0 – “Social Media” Source: World Bank
  24. 24. PAGE 24 Long Tail (Chris Anderson) • E-commerce (Amazon) • Advertising (Google Adwords, Adsense) • Publishing (blogs, crowdsourcing, YouTube, etc.) • New: Logistics (Uber, GoJek, Postmates)
  25. 25. PAGE 25 Long Tail / Pareto distribution in Publishing
  26. 26. PAGE 26 Source: http://gapingvoid.com
  27. 27. PAGE 27 “No Tail” in SEA because it skipped Web 1.0/1.5
  28. 28. PAGE 28
  29. 29. PAGE 29 Chicken and Egg Issue
  30. 30. PAGE 30
  31. 31. PAGE 31
  32. 32. PAGE 32 No-Tail implications on ecosystem in SEA • Relatively simple ad tech environment • Affiliate marketing still nascent • Demand-side platform (DSP) market still nascent • Accelerated development and proliferance of e- commerce and other non-ad based business models • “Traditional” digital agencies’ scope reduced to executing global contracts and buying offline media (in US, these agencies still have a role to play due to complicated ad tech environment)
  33. 33. PAGE 33 “Running programmatic display advertising in most of Southeast Asia is like buying a Lamborghini but driving it in the traffic jams of Jakarta”
  34. 34. PAGE 34 Reading Tea Leaves
  35. 35. PAGE 35 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 US China Thailand Indonesia China skipped Web 1.0/1.5 too! Web 1.0 – “Homepages” US: 30.1% TH: 1.1% ID: 0.3% US: 61.7% TH: 9.3% ID: 2.4% US: 75% TH: 20% ID: 5.8% Web 1.5 – “Self-Publishing/Blogging/UGC” Web 2.0 – “Social Media” Source: World Bank
  36. 36. PAGE 36 Accelerated development and proliferance of e-commerce and other non-ad based business models
  37. 37. PAGE 37 Accelerated development and proliferance of e-commerce and other non-ad based business models
  38. 38. PAGE 38 Accelerated development and proliferance of e-commerce and other non-ad based business models
  39. 39. PAGE 39 Limits to monetization through ads in Southeast Asia Launched sticker set, after one week: • 5M followers • Block rate = 41% • Open rate = 0.2%
  40. 40. 03 Product-Channel Fit
  41. 41. PAGE 41 Shiny Object Syndrome (Traditional Agencies) http://creativity-online.com/work/dominos-emoji-ordering/42507
  42. 42. PAGE 42 Some terminology • Digital marketing (agencies, brands) • Internet marketing (old schoolers, e.g. eBay) • Demand generation (fortune 500 retailers, e.g. Amazon, Apple, Dell) • Customer acquisition / acquisition marketing (SaaS and daily deals/flash sale sites, e.g. Dropbox, Mint, Groupon, Gilt) • Growth marketing (new schoolers, e.g. Facebook, Uber) • Growth hacking (pretentious douchebags) • Moneyball marketing (the shit)
  43. 43. PAGE 43
  44. 44. PAGE 44 The CMO as Billy Beane “Enter the Moneyballer CMO. Today’s Moneyballer CMO plans her marketing initiatives the way Billy Beane built the Oakland A’s. She leverages granular data on customer actions to expand beyond the traditional CMO role, influencing product strategy, customer service, and optimized sales pitches. The Moneyballer CMO still uses smart agencies and consultants, but insources the core marketing strategy using the increased visibility her technology allows. She also insources her company’s data, employing it across multiple platforms and applications. Silos are the enemy of the Moneyballer CMO, because connected data means more holistic and measurable results.” – Auren Hoffman http://qr.ae/6CGer
  45. 45. PAGE 45
  46. 46. PAGE 46 “The new job title of “Growth Hacker” is integrating itself into Silicon Valley’s culture, emphasizing that coding and technical chops are now an essential part of being a great marketer… The role of the VP of Marketing, long thought to be a non-technical role, is rapidly fading and in its place, a new breed of marketer/coder hybrids have emerged.” – Andrew Chen http://andrewchen.co/how-to-be-a-growth-hacker-an-airbnbcraigslist-case-study AKA Growth Hacker (Andrew Chen)
  47. 47. PAGE 47 http://www.urbandictionary.com
  48. 48. PAGE 48
  49. 49. PAGE 49
  50. 50. PAGE 50
  51. 51. PAGE 51
  52. 52. PAGE 52 AARRR Framework (Dave McClure)
  53. 53. PAGE 53 1. Conversion Funnel 2. Channel/Portfolio Management 3. Optimization 4. Email 5. Analytics 6. User Quality 7. People (AKA Moneyballers) 7 Core Pillars of Acquisition Marketing Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs Framework (yours truly)
  54. 54. PAGE 54 Pillar 1: Conversion Funnel
  55. 55. PAGE 55 Pillar 2: Channel / Portfolio Management
  56. 56. PAGE 56 Pillar 3: Optimization
  57. 57. PAGE 57 Pillar 4: Email
  58. 58. PAGE 58
  59. 59. PAGE 59 Pillar 5: Analytics
  60. 60. PAGE 60
  61. 61. PAGE 61 Pillar 6: User Quality
  62. 62. PAGE 62
  63. 63. PAGE 63
  64. 64. PAGE 64 Cohort Analysis… by channel
  65. 65. PAGE 65
  66. 66. PAGE 66 “What they don’t do is the more nuanced (hard) work of looking at how the marginal cohorts are declining in value. What they don’t look at is the detailed impact on the quality of that growth, aka the margins and repeat transactions attached to it.” “Why don’t they do this? Part of it is the systems to look at the data are rarely very good in a start-up. Part of it is you’ll need really talented analysts, a precious resource and often a luxury at the early stage where most people are zapped just keeping the trains running on time. Part of it is even if the systems are pristine and the data is rapidly returned by ready analysts to business (which I’ve not seen three for three at any start-up), it can take twelve to eighteen to twenty-four months to have confidence in where the cohorts are going.” Pillar 7: People (Andy Dunn again)
  67. 67. PAGE 67 http://www.coelevate.com/essays/customer-acquisition Shape yourself like a “T” (Brian Balfour)
  68. 68. PAGE 68 Good luck and stay in touch! Sheji Ho Group CMO, aCommerce E: sheji@acommerce.asia M: +66 (0) 9 2596 5656 Skype: sheji_ho Address: 946 Dusit Thani Building, 4th fl., Rama IV Rd. Bangrak, Bangkok,10500 Thailand

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