What do shippers and carriers think? - Monthly trend survey for December 2011

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Monthly trend survey into what shippers and carriers think will happen in the short term related to the supply chain. …

Monthly trend survey into what shippers and carriers think will happen in the short term related to the supply chain.
Topics include current issues, expected changes in fuel price, transport rates, cost of carriers, transport volumes and capacity.
Since this regular survey is taken by hundreds of shippers and carriers present on all continents, it provides a truly global coverage.
The major issues identified are going to be addressed in further surveys and analyzed in white papers.

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  • 1. What do shippers and carriers think?Results of the monthly trend survey for December 2011 © Zsolt Kosinszky
  • 2. Summary for Dec 2011 (vs Nov 2011) Shippers expect Carriers-5% to +5% volumes up to 5+% increase40% expect no change transport capacity 46% expect lessno change transport rates up to 5% increase2.10% rise diesel prices 5.65% riseup to 5% increase cost for carriers up to 5% increase © Zsolt Kosinszky
  • 3. Survey methodology and base data 50% Participants• anonymous survey 40% 40% 34% 30% 26%• between November 15-20, 2011 20% 10%• 535 respondents with activities on all 0% shipper carrier othercontinents• participants: buyers (shippers) and 80% 70% 72% Area of activity 60%sellers (carriers) of transport services 50% 40% 46% 42% 36% 30% 30%and other supply chain players 20% 10% 0%(e.g. infrastructure providers, Europe The Asia Africa Australia Americas andconsultants, media, education) Oceania• about 54% of respondents are high 80% 75% Decision makers 60%level decision makers 40% 39% 41%• base data: November 2011 20% 0% shipper carrier other © Zsolt Kosinszky
  • 4. Featured survey: transport tenderingRegularityShippers: 30% use only spot rates, 25% tender every 2 yearsCarriers: 36% tender yearly, 18-18% monthly or quarterlyTools usedShippers: 53% use spreadsheets, 37% web based toolsCarriers: 69% use spreadsheets, 23% web based toolsNumber of carriers invited on averageShippers: 8 to spot tenders, 57 to long term tendersCarriers: 24 to spot tenders, 50 to long term tenders © Zsolt Kosinszky
  • 5. Challenge ProblemCurrent Find the right Rates not competitive, insufficient quality ofsupply carriers (spot and long term) service, long tendering process, complicated spot sourcingchainchallenges Operational efficiency Processes not in place or not working, long lead times, suboptimal and costly operations, low visibility (information), decreasing service level, highShippers inventory Capacity Insufficient load and manufacturing60% 55% management optimization, backup providers 50%50% 45% 45% unknown, jammed supply chain40%30%20% Getting greener Most solutions are costly/take long time to10% while saving put in place and/or take effect0% © Zsolt Kosinszky
  • 6. Challenge ProblemCurrent Operational efficiency Highly manualsupply processes, insufficient visibility, short term actionschain Find new customers Huge competition, extremelychallenges resource intensive structures Find the right subcontractors Highly resource intensive (spot and long term) processes, outdatedCarriers applications (freight exchange/loadboard) Capacity management Insufficient network 80% 70% 69% optimization, insufficient 60% 46% visibility, short term 50% 40% 38% 38% 38% view, collaboration issues 30% 20% 10% Financing/payment Complex rating 0% systems, numerous extra cost types, credit issues, insufficient collaboration © Zsolt Kosinszky
  • 7. Root causes of supply chain problems• most of the major issues (finding the right carrier, improvingoperational efficiency, capacity management and finding newcustomers) are due to insufficient knowledge/choices andinformation in the supply chain• getting greener while saving costs is only possible if an instantsolution is found• financing is partly problematic due to credit issues, partly there isan underlying concern: only more equipment is the way forward?• payment issues need a legal frameworkThe above issues will be focused on in upcoming surveys and whitepapers. © Zsolt Kosinszky
  • 8. Expected diesel price in Dec 20116.00% 5.65% 4.00% 3.77%5.00% What they expect 3.50% What they think4.00% 3.00% the market expects 2.50% 2.05% 2.13%3.00% 2.72% 2.00% 2.10%2.00% 1.50% 1.43% 1.00% 1%1.00% 0.50%0.00% 0.00% shippers carriers others all shippers carriers others allWhile shippers (2.10%) believe that the market (2.72%) expects a somewhat lower price thanthem (2.05%), carriers (5.65%) think that the market (2.72%) expects a significantly lowerprice than them (3.77%).The base price is the October 2011 average diesel fuel price per litre in Germany: 1.46 EUR. (source:http://www.theaa.com/onlinenews/allaboutcars/fuel/2011/october2011.pdf) © Zsolt Kosinszky
  • 9. Transport rate changes in Dec 2011• 58% expect no change 70% 58% 60% 50% 40% What shippers expect• 20% expect an increase 30% 20% 20% 8% 10% 1% 1% 4% 4% 3% 1%of up to 2% no change 0%• both shippers and carriers What shippers and 80% 71% 70% 61% carriers think 60% the market 55% 50%believe the market expects 50% 40% expectsa rate increase of up 28% 30% 25% 20%to 5% 10% 0% rate increase no change rate increase of up to 5% © Zsolt Kosinszky
  • 10. Changes in carriers’ costs in Dec 2011 35% 33% What carriers expect• 75% expect higher costs 30% 25% 25% 25%• 25% expect no change 20% 17% 15% 10%• 33% expect an increase 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%of between 5-10% 80% 67% What shippers and carriers 70% think the market expects• both shippers and carriers 60% 57% 50% 50% 42% 40%foresee a cost increase of 30% 25% 20% 14%up to 5% 10% 0% cost increase no change cost increase of up to 5% © Zsolt Kosinszky
  • 11. Transport capacity in Dec 2011 50% What shippers and carriers expect 46%• while shippers rather 45% 40% 40% 35%expect no change (40%), 35% 30% 31% 25% 23%46% of carriers 25% 20% 15%believe it will be less 10% 5%than in November 2011 0% more unchanged less• carriers also believe 60% What shippers and carriers 55% think the market expectsthe market expects less 50% 40% 37%capacity (55%), while 30% 31% 27% 32%shippers are rather 20% 18% 10%undecided 0% more unchanged less © Zsolt Kosinszky
  • 12. Volumes in Dec 2011 50% 46% What shippers and• both shippers and carriers 45% 40% 40% carriers expect 35%are rather positive about 30% 25% 30% 25% 20%business expectations 20% 15% 10% 8% 5% 0%• both shippers and carriers volume increase no change volume increase of up to 5%foresee that the market will 50% 45% 46% What shippers and carriers think 38%grow, although opinions 40% 35% 37% 32% the market 30% expects22%about no growth or 25% 20% 15%decreasing business results 15% 10% 5%are also strong 0% volume increase no change volume increase of up to 5% © Zsolt Kosinszky
  • 13. Thank you, sharing, next survey, contactFirstly, if you are one of the 535 respondents who took thissurvey, thank you for your time!In case you found this survey useful and/or interesting, please feelfree to share it with anyone.The January 2012 survey questions will be accessible fromDecember 15, 2011.If you would like to get in touch with me, please write tokosinszky.zsolt@gmail.com or contact me via LinkedInhttp://be.linkedin.com/in/zsoltkosinszkyor feel free to join the Collective Transport Sourcing group onLinkedIn:http://www.linkedin.com/groups?about=&gid=4128642 © Zsolt Kosinszky