The State of  the Market January 2009 Jurrien Timmer Director of Investment Research & Portfolio Manager Fidelity Investme...
2008:   Deflationary Death Spiral 2009:   Reflationary Bull? 2010-2012:   Inflationary Bear?
2008: Deflation
 
Other than cash and Treasuries, there was no place to hide in 2008.
 
 
 
A secular turn in consumer behavior?
2009: Reflation
2008 1930’s A binary choice: the odds say “buy”, but if we’re wrong, we’re dead.
<ul><li>Earnings:  collapsing. </li></ul><ul><li>Liquidity:  booming. </li></ul><ul><li>Valuation:  favorable. </li></ul>T...
Stocks  can  rally on declining earnings.
Valuations at worst case scenarios.
The world is cheap again.
Shock & Awe.
 
The Battle at Armageddon continues.  The Forces of Good are gaining!
Reflation signals continue to mount.
Some $1 trillion has been redeemed from HFs and MFs.
Cash, TDs and MMF assets total $8 trillion!
2010-2012: Inflation?
What are the moral hazards? Bigger deficits.  Higher interest rates Higher inflation. Higher taxes. More regulation. Resul...
What happens when China stops buying?
$2,000 Gold?  Bet on it!
Oil should be at $110, given where the money supply is.
Secular trends.
2008:   Deflationary Death Spiral 2009:   Reflationary Bull? 2010-2012:   Inflationary Bear?
Important Legal Information <ul><li>Past performance is no guarantee of future results. </li></ul><ul><li>The information ...
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The State of the Market

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The State of the Market

  1. 1. The State of the Market January 2009 Jurrien Timmer Director of Investment Research & Portfolio Manager Fidelity Investments The information presented reflects the opinions of Jurrien Timmer, Director of Market Research, for Fidelity Management & Research Company as of January 12, 2009. These opinions do not necessarily represent the views of Fidelity or any other person in the Fidelity organization and are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions. Fidelity disclaims any responsibility to update such views. These views may not be relied on as investment advice and, because investment decisions for a Fidelity fund are based on numerous factors, may not be relied on as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any Fidelity fund. As with all of your investments through Fidelity, you must make your own determination whether an investment in any particular security or fund is consistent with your investment objectives, risk tolerance, financial situation, and your evaluation of the investment option. Fidelity is not recommending or endorsing any particular investment option by mentioning it in this presentation or by making it available to its customers. This information is provided for educational purposes only, and you should bear in mind that laws of a particular state and your particular situation may affect this information.
  2. 2. 2008: Deflationary Death Spiral 2009: Reflationary Bull? 2010-2012: Inflationary Bear?
  3. 3. 2008: Deflation
  4. 5. Other than cash and Treasuries, there was no place to hide in 2008.
  5. 9. A secular turn in consumer behavior?
  6. 10. 2009: Reflation
  7. 11. 2008 1930’s A binary choice: the odds say “buy”, but if we’re wrong, we’re dead.
  8. 12. <ul><li>Earnings: collapsing. </li></ul><ul><li>Liquidity: booming. </li></ul><ul><li>Valuation: favorable. </li></ul>The “Three Pillars” Stock Market Earnings Valuation Interest Rate Cycle
  9. 13. Stocks can rally on declining earnings.
  10. 14. Valuations at worst case scenarios.
  11. 15. The world is cheap again.
  12. 16. Shock & Awe.
  13. 18. The Battle at Armageddon continues. The Forces of Good are gaining!
  14. 19. Reflation signals continue to mount.
  15. 20. Some $1 trillion has been redeemed from HFs and MFs.
  16. 21. Cash, TDs and MMF assets total $8 trillion!
  17. 22. 2010-2012: Inflation?
  18. 23. What are the moral hazards? Bigger deficits. Higher interest rates Higher inflation. Higher taxes. More regulation. Result: lower potential GDP.
  19. 24. What happens when China stops buying?
  20. 25. $2,000 Gold? Bet on it!
  21. 26. Oil should be at $110, given where the money supply is.
  22. 27. Secular trends.
  23. 28. 2008: Deflationary Death Spiral 2009: Reflationary Bull? 2010-2012: Inflationary Bear?
  24. 29. Important Legal Information <ul><li>Past performance is no guarantee of future results. </li></ul><ul><li>The information presented reflects the opinions of Jurrien Timmer, Director of Market Research, for Fidelity Management & Research Company as of January 7, 2009. These opinions do not necessarily represent the views of Fidelity or any other person in the Fidelity organization and are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions. Fidelity disclaims any responsibility to update such views. These views may not be relied on as investment advice and, because investment decisions for a Fidelity fund are based on numerous factors, may not be relied on as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any Fidelity fund. </li></ul><ul><li>As with all of your investments through Fidelity, you must make your own determination whether an investment in any particular security or fund is consistent with your investment objectives, risk tolerance, financial situation, and your evaluation of the investment option. Fidelity is not recommending or endorsing any particular investment option by mentioning it in this conference call or by making it available to its customers. This information is provided for educational purposes only, and you should bear in mind that laws of a particular state and your particular situation may affect this information. </li></ul><ul><li>The S&P 500® and S&P are registered trademarks of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., and are licensed for use by Fidelity Distributors Corp., and its affiliates. The S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged market capitalization-weighted index of common stocks. All indexes are unmanaged and no investment may be made in any index. Stock values fluctuate in response to the activities of individual companies and general market and economic conditions. </li></ul><ul><li>The Reuters/Jeffries CRB Commodity index is an unmanaged index of various commodities. The index is made up of 19 commodities as quoted on the NYMEX, CBOT, LME, CME, and COMEX exchanges. These are sorted into 4 groups, each with different weightings. These groups are petroleum based products, which based on their importance to global trade, always make up 33% of the weightings; and 3 further group of liquid assets, highly liquid assets and diverse commodities. . </li></ul><ul><li>The Periodic Table of Investment Returns shows the returns of various asset classes over time, ranked from best to worst. The chart represents data through 6/30/2008. Source: FMRCo. Russell 2000: Russell 2000 Index. Small Growth: Russell 2000 Growth Index. Small Value: Russell 2000 Value Index. Large Growth: Russell 1000 Growth Index. Large Value: Russell 1000 Value Index. S&P 500: Standards & Poor’s 500 Stock Index. Bonds: Lehman Brothers Aggregate Bond Index. Cash: 3month T-Bills (Ibbotson Assoc.). Commodities: Goldman Sachs Commodities Index. Real Estate: NAREIT Equity Index. Convertibles: CSFB Convertible Securities Index. Japan: MCSI (in U.S. Dollars). Europe: MCSI (in U.S. Dollars). EAFE: MCSI (in U.S. Dollars). High Yield: Ibbotson Assoc. Domestic High Yield Index. Gold: Ibbotson Associates. </li></ul>

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